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A look at gubernatorial ad spending
Friday, Feb 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller * Korecki…
Ives ended the fourth quarter with $404K and has reported raising about $2.7 million since then. She appears to have an ad burn rate of about $633K per week. She has overhead costs as well, so at this spending rate she doesn’t have nearly enough gas left in the tank to make it to primary day. She needs another Uihlein check within the next, let’s say, 3-10 days. Check out how Rauner has upped his spending rate this week. At that rate, he’ll spend another $5 million or so by primary day. Kennedy. Sheesh. He’s spent less than a Tier One state Senate candidate. And yet he’s still in the hunt. Biss’ current spending rate means he’ll spend another $2 million or so after the end of this month. His 12/31 cash on hand plus reported contributions this year equal $4.3 million. Add in the small, unreported contributions this year, which (judging from the past rate of 10 percent) could be $100K or so. That works out to about $1.76 million available minus his overhead, which he’s kept pretty low. He’s gonna need a bigger boat if he wants to remain at this pace, but contributions tend to pick up as election day nears. If you average all the polls taken since January, Pritzker is at about 35 percent. So, his advertisement spending equals $785,000 per percentage point. And that doesn’t count all the rest of his spending. He’s way over a million bucks per poll point.
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- Rutro - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 10:51 am:
Does Pritzker get the all time record for $ per vote ratio? Who holds the record? Bruce/Oberweiss/Rahm?
- Six Degrees of Separation - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 10:56 am:
===Who holds the record? Bruce/Oberweiss/Rahm?===
We won’t know till election day, but long ago when a dollar was worth more than it is now, Blair Hull spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 a vote in his failed US Senate campaign that was ultimately won by our Barack Obama. Oh, for the days of a Punch 10 postcard with a fin attached.
- Arsenal - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 11:05 am:
==He’s gonna need a bigger boat if he wants to remain at this pace, but contributions tend to pick up as election day nears.==
He should be able to sell his surge to some big fish, too, right? And OR might help with small dollar donations.
- Grand Avenue - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 11:06 am:
Kennedy looks like a good investment for the anti-Madigan crowd. A few million & he can win it. I’m surprised Blair Hull’s not cutting him a $1 Million check.
- AuH20 - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 11:16 am:
==He should be able to sell his surge to some big fish, too, right?==
Already happening. Since last Friday, Biss has reported two individual contributions of $250K, a another two of $100K, and a bunch of low-mid 5-figure checks.
- Chicagonk - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 11:33 am:
I walked by Pritzker’s office on Belmont in Lakeview yesterday around 6 and there were about 20 or so people making calls. Pritzker is also heavily advertising on the urban radio stations like WGCI and WBMX. It’s honestly amazing that the race is as close as it is considering the extent of the Pritzker campaign organization.
- SaulGoodman - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 11:40 am:
**It’s honestly amazing that the race is as close as it is considering the extent of the Pritzker campaign organization.**
Kinda’ says a lot about Democratic voters’ enthusiasm (or lack thereof) of the leading candidate.
- Arsenal - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 11:49 am:
==Kinda’ says a lot about Democratic voters’ enthusiasm (or lack thereof) of the leading candidate.==
I guess, but a ~10 point lead is pretty significant.
- Anonymous - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 12:09 pm:
Pritzker looks to be where Rauner was four years ago, while Biss and Kennedy are racing toward the Dillard slot. It ain’t over, but they’ve gotta move if they’re gonna.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 23, 18 @ 2:59 pm:
I’ve always looked at the monies in a campaign thru one lens at this specific point in a campaign (less than a month out)
Are the monies there to motor the campaign thru the finish line. Not to… thru… the finish line.
Again, apologies to Word and AA… as AWillyWord Consulting has not received a dime of these monies, and AA has yet to say if anyone has reached out lately. That’s in my.
Back to the Post,
I find this just fascinating too…
===Kennedy. Sheesh. He’s spent less than a Tier One state Senate candidate. And yet he’s still in the hunt.===
They needed about $8 million with 12 weeks out and he could be in control of this thing.
A “Kennedy” and a “Daley” couldn’t find $8 million laying around to run what coulda been a “Kennedy-esque” campaign that might have steamrolled some narratives.