* Paul Simon Public Policy Institute press release…
President Trump’s job approval was 36% positive and 62% negative. These totals included 54% who strongly disapproved, 8% who somewhat disapproved, 18% who strongly approved and 18% who somewhat approved of his performance in office. In shorthand terms he was 26% “underwater.”
Governor Rauner’s total positive rate was 31% who either somewhat approved (23%) or strongly approved (7%). His total negative rating was 63% with 39% who strongly disapproved and 24% who disapproved. This put him at 32% underwater.
“It is notable that Governor Rauner’s job approval in Illinois is somewhat more negative than President Trump’s. This is the opposite of the more usual finding of other polls in other states”, said John Jackson of the Paul Simon Institute, one of the directors of the poll.
Speaker Madigan fared somewhat worse than Governor Rauner at a 21% approval rate with 18% who somewhat approve and 3% who strongly approve. He is at 68% total disapprove with 49% strongly disapprove and 19% who somewhat disapprove.
This is the second poll in the past few weeks to show that Trump is less unpopular than Rauner.
And that Madigan issue is golden for the GOP and Democrats and will remain golden. The crosstabs show his job disapproval rating among Democrats is at 58 percent, among blacks it’s at 53 percent and among labor union members it’s at a whopping 66 percent. But be careful with those last two numbers because sample sizes were pretty low.
* Back to the poll…
The respondents were next asked, “Has President Donald Trump’s record in office made you more or less likely to vote this year for a Republican for Illinois executive offices including: Governor and Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, or Attorney General?”
Overall, 27% said more likely; 55% said less likely, and 11% said neither. There were 17% who said much more likely and 10% who said somewhat more likely while 13% said somewhat less likely and 43% who said much less likely.
This was followed by a similar question of whether President Trump’s record in office made you more or less likely to vote for a Republican for U. S. Congress from Illinois this year. A total of 30% chose more likely with 20% who said much more and 10% said somewhat more likely. 57% of the respondents chose less likely with 47% saying much less likely and 11% somewhat less likely. 9% said neither.
Another question asked if Trump’s record made them more or less likely to vote for a Republican for the Illinois General Assembly this year. 29% chose more likely; 56% chose less likely and 10% chose neither.
43% said much less likely and 13% said somewhat less likely. 10% said somewhat more likely and 18% selected much more likely.
If you’re one of those people who still questions why Democrats are attacking Trump in their advertising, now you know.
* And again, the methodology is questionable…
The margin of error of the entire sample of 1,001 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. This means that if we conducted the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances, the population proportion would be within plus or minus the reported margin of error for each subsample. For subsamples, the margin of error increases as the sample size goes down. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects. Among self-identified primary election voters, the margin is plus or minus 6 percentage points in the 259-voter sample of Republicans, and 4.5 percentage points in the sample of 472 Democrats.
Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). The sample obtained 51% male and 49% female respondents. Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.