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Did Rauner just tip his hand on the gun bills?

Monday, Mar 5, 2018

* Laura Washington writes that Gov. Bruce Rauner is in yet another “pickle” over the gun legislation currently making its way to his desk

[After HB40, etc.] Rauner is loath to further alienate conservative voters, the ones Jeanne Ives is after. He is way ahead of her in the polls and wants to keep it that way. So, he will sit on the legislation, reviewing and conversing, until after the primary.

He’ll endure weeks of attacks from the state’s Democratic Party leadership, its political action committees, gun control activists and gubernatorial candidates.

But whoever wins the six-way Democratic gubernatorial contest, Rauner will surely face a liberal Chicagoan, on his left. […]

The sweet spot lies in the Chicago suburbs, the home of moderate independent and swing voters, especially women. The same women who are terrorized by the ubiquity of guns. The women who wonder, every day, whether their children are safe in their own schools. And who wonder, every day, if they will come home.

After his “review” and “conversation,” look for Rauner to sign a minimum measure or two. An obvious “give” would be the bump stock ban. Just enough to show he is listening and is willing to govern.

That may leave a sour taste with gun control advocates, but just enough to get Rauner out of that pickle.

* She may be right

Prior to Rauner’s public remarks, Justin Oseland of Cumberland County approached the governor to ask what the governor will do about the gun control measures passed last week by the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives. The two could be seen talking for a couple minutes.

“He said I have his support for the second amendment, and (he) will veto all of the bills, with maybe the exception of bump stocks, if they can come to some sort of consensus,” Oseland said of his conversation with the governor.

Oseland went on to clarify that the governor said he would veto those bills currently “in the works.” According to the Associated Press, last week the Illinois House approved a bump-stock ban, a minimum age to purchase assault-style weapons and state licensing of gun dealers.

The Cumberland County man added that Rauner seemed open to a ban on bump stocks, which modify semi-automatic weapons to make them fire faster.

“His answer wasn’t exactly straight to the point,” said Oseland. “He just said he may be open to working with something on bump stocks … not necessarily a full ban, but some type of bill regarding them.”

The Rauner campaign’s response didn’t really answer the paper’s question about what he may may not have said. Then again, he told a lot of people he would veto HB40, too.

Your thoughts about what he’ll do?

…Adding… Press release…

“The Gun Dealer Licensing Act is critical legislation that will help prevent gun trafficking and keep families safe. Bruce Rauner should immediately sign it,” said JB Pritzker. “Communities and families across this state have been devastated by gun violence and instead of playing politics, Bruce Rauner should keep his word and take immediate action. This critical legislation will help keep guns out of the hands of those who shouldn’t have them and I call on Bruce Rauner to immediately sign the Gun Dealer Licensing Act and help keep our communities safe.”

* Related…

* Rauner ‘silence is deafening’ on bill to license state gun retailers, Rahm says: “I know he once said he wasn’t in charge. Well, the bill is on his desk. He can show that he’s in charge when it comes to public safety,” the mayor said. … All of those bills are still awaiting final approval. The bill to license gun dealers is the only one forwarded to the governor for final action. It passed the Senate last year and cleared the House Wednesday by a vote of 64-to-52. State Rep. Jeanne Ives, R-Wheaton, Rauner’s more conservative opponent in the Republican gubernatorial primary, voted no and urged the governor not to sign the bill.

* Wounds From Military-Style Rifles? ‘A Ghastly Thing to See’ - Trauma surgeons tell what it is really like to try to repair such devastating injuries. “Bones are exploded, soft tissue is absolutely destroyed,” one said.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Arsenal - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:21 pm:

    Smartest thing to do is to wait until March 21, sign the bills, and hope.

  2. - ste_with_a_v_en - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:22 pm:

    Sign the bump stock and age bills, veto the licenses.

  3. - Pot calling kettle - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:23 pm:

    == Then again, he told a lot of people he would veto HB40, too.==

    That’s the key to all of this. There’s no way to know which way he will go, and even if he commits to one direction, everyone knows he’s willing to do a 180.

    What would be really interesting to see is how he would govern if Ives made him an early lame duck. (I know the likelihood of this is slim to none, but it would be really, really interesting.) Would the lying stop?

  4. - Blue dog dem - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:24 pm:

    From an electibility standpoint. It doesnt matter. You my man, are toast

  5. - Grand Avenue - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:32 pm:

    He’ll make the most politically advantageous decision at the most politically advantageous time.

  6. - Rogue Roni - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:37 pm:

    It would be refreshing if he took a stance, any stance, on anything besides union busting.

  7. - One of Three Puppets - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:39 pm:

    GOPers, get ready for HB 40×2. He will sign them all in DuPage or suburban Cook after the primary. Take the base for granted yet again with no ramifications. Elephants have good memory, just not Illinois elephants.

  8. - RNUG - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:44 pm:

    I’ll guess he signs the bump stock ban and the gun shop licensing bills.

    Most likely vetoes or amends the 10 capacity; it is questionable on legality since it doesn’t grandfather existing.

    I’d say 55/45 against an AR-15 or assault rifle ban … unless he decides he must have the suburban moms for the General Election.

  9. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:49 pm:

    Not good enough. He needs to veto before the primary if he intends to beat Ives. There’s no way he gets away with waiting. That’s his only slim hope. We’ll vote Pritzker before we re-elect Rauner.

  10. - Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:50 pm:

    He will say he is going to veto them all, win the primary, and sign them all.

  11. - Baggs McCoy - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:55 pm:

    I don’t think it is real hard to figure out what he will do. Rauner may have played the political game and said one thing and did another. This is the political game almost all politicians play. But, he has chosen the path closer to his real beliefs. Unions, he ran as a union buster and has held to that belief. To his detriment and the states. Abortion, he ran as pro-choice with no social agenda. Well he didn’t have a social agenda. Others did and he reacted based on his true beliefs. Guns, he has always been pro-gun and I believe will continue to be. I think he vetoes the most orrejous gun bills like Dealer Licensing or any potential gun bans and AV’s the rest (except maybe bump stocks) to Make the Speaker call the AV’s non-conforming.

  12. - Baggs McCoy - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 12:57 pm:

    Sorry meant onerous.

  13. - Annonin' - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:02 pm:

    This is another painful example of how little GovJunk knows about what is happening. This some people are paying attention. Unlikely he can get the whack jobs back.
    Tell him Madigan voted yes and he will drop a veto on all 3 bills

  14. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:02 pm:

    Can someone explain dealer licensing? I’m having a hard time thinking making people who sell guns have a license to do so is a bad idea.

  15. - A guy - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:02 pm:

    I guess he’s sort of on the record a little bit. But as Rich states, “why does that even matter?”

    You won’t know until he knows. And he won’t know until the day he takes action; maybe the day before, tops.

    Whatever he says now is manipulated confusion.

  16. - Thomas Paine - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:05 pm:

    The silence from Chris Kennedy is deafening.

    Wasn’t gun control supposed to be his signature issue?

    Rauner will end up signing the bills.

    Support in Winnetka/Wilmette - Rauner’s base - is overwhelming for gun control.

    Besides, Pritzker is likely to run nonstop ads demanding Rauner sign the bills, just as he did on HB 40, in the Chicago market.

    Rauner can try to hide, but that just gives Pritzker carte blanche to define him and the issue.

    “Rauner vetoed bipartisan legislation to prohibit the sale of assault rifles to teenagers….” vs. “Pritzker is controlled by Mike Madigan” means devastating losses for the GOP.

    Which do you think voters care more about: Madigan or their kids being gunned down?

  17. - Motambe - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:10 pm:

    Sign the bump stock bill because the Feds will change that regulation and enforce it. No cost to the state. Sign the age bill. Dealers enforce, no cost to the state. Dealer licenses? The Feds cleaned this up 30 years ago, moving lax hobbyists out of the license holders. The small local dealers currently undergo review and record inspection, sometimes annually, by the Feds. The Illinois bill duplicates this, and adds another layer of bureaucracy which the state can’t afford. Veto it.

  18. - Norseman - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:11 pm:

    He’ll sign bump stock and veto the other two. If he were smart, he’d AV the Age 21 bill to grandfather existing ownership. None of this happens prior to the primary.

  19. - Cheryl44 - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:12 pm:

    Thanks, Motambe.

  20. - A Jack - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:20 pm:

    I think Rauner will have a hard time justifying a veto of the age limit.

    The drinking age was raised to 21 because younger adults were showing poor judgment when it came to drinking and driving. The same argument can be made for young adults and school shootings. Many school shootings have been the result of current or former students who have a problem with a school or its students. Giving potential shooters a cooling off period of a few years after they leave school seems like common sense. It will give them a chance to figure out that there is life after high school.

  21. - Arthur Andersen - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:48 pm:

    I agree with Norseman. Bump stocks are gone anyway, killing state licensing is consistent with his anti-red tape initiative (maybe Evelyn can front this one lol) and grandfathering the existing 18-21 cohort would be fair.

  22. - Northsider (the original) - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 1:52 pm:

    He will sign all of them quickly. If he vetoes any, the Rauner’s will never be invited to another North Shore cocktail party. Ever.

  23. - Demoralized - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:01 pm:

    There shouldn’t be any disagreement about bump stocks. It wouldn’t surprise me if the feds banned them so any state law might be moot.

  24. - SAP - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:10 pm:

    If he learned anything from the HB40 fiasco, the Governor will sign the gun bills the day after the primary.

  25. - A guy - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:12 pm:

    ==If he learned anything from the HB40 fiasco,…===

    It would be an historic first for him.

  26. - revvedup - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:46 pm:

    Guessing what our Guv will do is difficult. But he might well do an AV on dealer licensing, which he’ll find as too bureaucratic and anti-business for his taste. On the other hand, he may veto raising the age from 18 to 21 to avoid the inevitable lawsuit(s) filed on behalf of 18-20 year olds who are legally adults, but unable to own ANY firearms. Bump stocks and other proposals are far less clear where he stands; no surprise given his lack of a track record on 2nd Amendment issues.

  27. - Todd - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:54 pm:

    He vetoed a tannerite bill because he thought that had to much regulation in it

  28. - Todd - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:06 pm:

    BTW can we have some truth in reporting about the technical side of guns? Bullets cause the same type of damage if they are the same construction and caliber. The gun matters little to that as it’s all psyics.

    A .223/5.56 will act the same if fired out of a bolt action rifle or semi-auto. It is the type of projectile and speed at which it flies that determine how it acts upon impact

    A 22-250 will do even more upon impact than the .223 even with the same bullet due to the speed it travels at

  29. - wordslinger - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:57 pm:

    I think he’ll sign everything after the primary in a frantic attempt to regain ground with suburban women.

    The one-issue gun voters become irrelevant after the GOP primary. They can stay home or vote Democratic. The election will be won in the suburbs.

  30. - Mama - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 5:01 pm:

    “He just said he may be open to working with something on bump stocks … not necessarily a full ban, but some type of bill regarding them.”

    That is Rauner’s answer. He is siding with the NRA.

  31. - FormerParatrooper - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 7:05 pm:

    Just a few thought on these Bills, raising the age to possess a firearm to 21, should we also raise the age for entering a legal contract, voting and enlisting in military service for the same reason? Banning 30 rd magazines doesn’t make sense either, there are a unknown amount in the State right now by people like me who have not committed any offenses, have no propensity to do so, and at the signage of the Bill by the Governor we all become criminals? Who is paying for our property that has to be relinquished? And at what rate will we be reimbursed for for our property?

    Why can’t we just have some Bills that work to prevent crime and not create it?

  32. - Chicago_Gunowner - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 9:33 pm:

    “Can someone explain dealer licensing? I’m having a hard time thinking making people who sell guns have a license to do so is a bad idea.”

    Gun dealeras are already licensed by the ATF. They are regularly audited, and the audits are thorough, conducted by a dozen or so agents, and take several weeks. The state license is just a scheme to drive small dealers out of business through excessive fees and regulations. It also opens the door to sheriffs banning gun dealers in their county, because they must sign off on any license. So Tom Dart can ban all gun stores in Cook County simply by refusing to sign off on their license, and I have no doubt that’s what he’d do.

    The whole push for this is the false premise that there are dealers who intentionally sell to straw purchasers and criminals, which is nonsense. In fact I’d say the entire purpose of this bill is to drive Chuck’s Guns out of business for the crime of being the dealer closest to the south side of Chicago.

  33. - Jason - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 7:23 am:

    These new gun bills are pure ignorance, gun laws work like drugs laws. Should we fix the actual problem and not bury our heads in the sand. The mental health system is broken let us fix this before anything else. Maybe it is time for Illinois to become two states, let Cook county become state 51.

  34. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 8:04 am:

    –The mental health system is broken let us fix this before anything else. Maybe it is time for Illinois to become two states, let Cook county become state 51.–

    I hope you see the irony of streaming those two thoughts one right after the other.

  35. - logic not emotion - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 8:51 am:

    Chicago_Gunowner, Former Paratrooper, and Todd are correct. They’re bad bills counting on capturing support from uneducated / misinformed voters.

    The correct response would be to veto all of them; but signing the bump stock one might be a good move politically. If he signs the others or just lets them become law - even after the primary, he will kiss his reelection chances goodbye.

  36. - Crazybleedingheart - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 9:09 am:

    Golly, I don’t know who to believe about the damage war guns cause, Todd or wartime trauma surgeons.

  37. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 9:36 am:

    – If he signs the others or just lets them become law - even after the primary, he will kiss his reelection chances goodbye.–

    Before weighing in on the electoral consequences of the “correct” response, you might want to check public opinion polls of those poor “uneducated” voters you speak of.

    Your emotion is getting in the way of your logic when it comes to your conclusions.

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