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A somewhat confused expectations game

Tuesday, Mar 20, 2018

* The Rauner campaign seems to be setting the bar high in today’s Wall St. Journal article

Ms. Ives released a poll last week that showed her within striking distance of Mr. Rauner, who is down by 7 percentage points. Mr. Rauner’s internal polling shows the governor ahead by 12 percentage points but with his popularity among the state’s Republicans slipping.

* The Republican Governors Association also appears to be setting the bar high

“Governor Rauner is in strong shape, he should win easily tomorrow night,” Jon Thompson, the Communications Director for the Republican Governors Association (RGA) said

* As you will recall from yesterday, Gov. Rauner compared his current primary battle to Gov. Jim Edgar’s 1994 primary, which Edgar wound up winning by 50 points. Illinois Working together has since been gleefully trolling Rauner

* But with a hat tip to IWT, Rauner said this today on Steve Cochran’s WGN Radio show

We need everybody in the Chicagoland area, your listeners, to know that this election is gonna be closer than anybody thought. This primary is gonna be tough. And Evelyn Sanguinetti and I have to win because we can be victorious. We’re the only ones who can be victorious against Pritzker and Madigan.

* And he said this today on Sam Madonia’s show

We need everybody to get out and vote in today’s primary. So, your listeners, if you haven’t already voted, vote today and take a Republican ballot, please, and on Republican ballot vote for Rauner and Sanguinetti. This primary is gonna be closer than many people originally thought. There’s a huge amount at stake here because Rauner and Sanguinetti, we as a team are the only team that can beat a Pritzker and Madigan in the fall in November. We’re the only ones that can do it.

Man, he sounded nervous on that show.

…Adding… I forgot about this one

All of those moves suggest a suddenly nervous candidate. And while strategists in both parties think he’ll likely hang on to win on Tuesday, some aren’t completely foreclosing the possibility that Ives could pull off a shocker.

“It appears this election is going to be a lot closer than anyone thought it would be — especially the governor,” former Rauner adviser Lance Trover told TPM on Monday.

“Especially the governor” is right.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

45 Comments
  1. - Concerned Dem - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 11:56 am:

    I’m shocked that this Governor and his team would give contradictory statements about today’s election.


  2. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 11:57 am:

    –“Governor Rauner is in strong shape, he should win easily tomorrow night,” Jon Thompson, the Communications Director for the Republican Governors Association (RGA) said–

    Why would you say that? You want your voters to stay home?


  3. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 11:59 am:

    ===“Governor Rauner is in strong shape, he should win easily tomorrow night,” Jon Thompson, the Communications Director for the Republican Governors Association (RGA) said===

    Hmm…

    ===We need everybody to get out and vote in today’s primary. So, your listeners, if you haven’t already voted, vote today and take a Republican ballot, please, and on Republican ballot vote for Rauner and Sanguinetti. This primary is gonna be closer than many people originally thought. There’s a huge amount at stake here because Rauner and Sanguinetti, we as a team are the only team that can beat a Pritzker and Madigan in the fall in November. We’re the only ones that can do it.===

    The RGA isn’t helping, they expect an easy win… LOL


  4. - Real - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:00 pm:

    It seems like that last min Ive’s ad worked for someone.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GovRauner/status/976133979257671682


  5. - Henry Francis - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:00 pm:

    He is sounding really desperate. Mentioning Sanguinetti not once but twice.


  6. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:02 pm:

    Leaning On Slip and Sue, Fall May Happen


  7. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:02 pm:

    The question interviewers never seem to ask: “If you know how to beat Madigan, why have you been holding back for three years?”


  8. - Real - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:03 pm:

    Isn’t the RGA the same group that thought the DGA only had $36,000 to spend on there ad’s last week?


  9. - Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:03 pm:

    He should have never demanded to vote out Berrios. He got to cocky and needs those Republican votes in Cook County to combat downstate if this is as close as people think it is.

    Also he loves running against the Madigan machine it’s what he needs. Why would he want to take out Berrios? Him losing is another Madigan talking point he loses. Rauner asking Pritzker if he support Berrios is easy to connect the dots with his mansion minus the toilets.


  10. - 360 Degree TurnAround - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:03 pm:

    the question should be, why hasn’t he taken Ives seriously?


  11. - contrarian - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:04 pm:

    If you are Rauner and you need to make sure Ives doesn’t win in a squeaker, you don’t tell anyone it’s going to be easy.


  12. - Retired Educator - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:05 pm:

    The Governor (I use the term loosely} seems to be in full desperation mode. Perhaps the polling isn’t going quite his way I have seen no Rauner signs anywhere in my area. He thought it was a lock. Perhaps he was wrong.


  13. - DarkHorse - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:06 pm:

    Rauner underperformed - by alot - his pre-primary polls in ‘14 to a more conservative candidate. It will be close, but I think he loses by 3%.

    In the process, he’ll help drag down the margrin of his handpicked AG choice, but she’ll pull through - I think by 8%.


  14. - Real - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:10 pm:

    What if Rauner loses the primary and Harold wins? That would be funny.


  15. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:11 pm:

    ===Mentioning Sanguinetti not once but twice===

    He said it way more times than that. I think he said her name more on those two shows than he’s said it in the last three years.


  16. - DarkHorse - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:16 pm:

    Dear Real,

    Harold is going to win. And if Rauner loses and she faces Quinn, she can beat Quinn - in part because she won’t be as dogged by questions about her independence from the Governor.


  17. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:17 pm:

    I still think Rauner pulls this one out, but man is it fun to see him nervous like this.


  18. - That Dude - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:18 pm:

    =I have seen no Rauner signs anywhere in my area.=

    GOP org by me backed Rauner. Not a single Rauner sign in this pretty decent R area. And I mean that… not a single one. But go a few towns over and there are Ives signs, a lot of them….


  19. - Bigtwich - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:25 pm:

    Perhaps the Governor has been reading the national media.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/could-a-gop-governor-lose-on-tuesday-what-to-watch-for-in-illinois-primaries


  20. - 360 Degree TurnAround - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:27 pm:

    Come on Ives. She is just what our state needs for the next eight months.


  21. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:29 pm:

    He has given voters few real reasons to renominate him, except that he is tall and can win in November.

    Who votes for that? What kind of Republicans are willingly selling their vote to an utter failure of a governor because they hope Illinoisans want an utter failure of a governor?

    It’s better to lose with aunproven experienced legislator, than renominate an incumbent schmoe who refuses to do the job?


  22. - ??? - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:32 pm:

    I love hearing all the anecdotes of people pulling GOP ballots for the purpose of voting against Rauner. I was one of them. Man, I hope Ives pulls this off.


  23. - State Worker - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:37 pm:

    I haven’t seen any Rauner signs this season but I have seen Ives….


  24. - Hopeful - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:39 pm:

    I am a Union guy. I pulled a GOP Ballot and voted for Ives.


  25. - 60661 - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:40 pm:

    I saw my first Rauner sign last Friday, in Winnetka. Other than that it’s nothing but Ives.


  26. - 60661 - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:41 pm:

    Considering that you can only pull one ballot I find it hard to believe a significant number of Dems would sacrifice their own vote for primary candidate just to vote Ives.


  27. - I’ll-have-the-rigatoni - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:44 pm:

    I called it on Feb. 28, the day the SIU poll came out, Ives upsets Rauner today‼️


  28. - Real - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:46 pm:

    Rauner deserves to lose and be a lame duck for 10 months.


  29. - Mr. K. - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:46 pm:

    Just pulled a GOP ballot and voted for Ives. It’s more important for me to see Rauner lose than Pritzker to win.

    *shrug*


  30. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:48 pm:

    –Considering that you can only pull one ballot I find it hard to believe a significant number of Dems would sacrifice their own vote for primary candidate just to vote Ives.–

    And Independents?


  31. - BlueDogDem - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 12:55 pm:

    Independents for Ives.


  32. - Annonin' - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 1:00 pm:

    We thought he sounded weak and very low energy. Mentionin’ Slip&Sue was a sure sign of desperation.


  33. - UpsetsBrokeMyBracket - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 1:02 pm:

    I usually pull an R ballot, but I pulled a D this time so I would not have to choose between Rauner and Ives. It may be close, but I think an Ives upset is in the works. Then again, my NCAA bracket did not work out so well.


  34. - Pundent - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 1:04 pm:

    I expect Rauner to win but also think it will be far closer than anyone would have predicted. But if Rauner’s constant cry of “Madigan” isn’t resonating with Republican voters it doesn’t bode well for him come November.


  35. - Ole' Nelson - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 1:05 pm:

    “Considering that you can only pull one ballot I find it hard to believe a significant number of Dems would sacrifice their own vote for primary candidate just to vote Ives.”

    I did.


  36. - Steward As Well.... - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 1:36 pm:

    The problem for us union folk…. Should the impossible happen and Ives manages to win the primary and the election against the democratic challenger she will be equally if not more horrible to the union and their positions.


  37. - Pundent - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 1:37 pm:

    It’s also quite possible that Dems might consider any of their primary candidates to be “tolerable” in the general election and might favor a matchup against the candidate for governor they perceive to be the weakest.


  38. - zatoichi - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 1:50 pm:

    Went Republican to vote for the our local state representative who I like. Then went Ives. Rauner has had enough time and has done little but talk.


  39. - the Patriot - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 1:51 pm:

    The misleading ads attacking Ives made me take a look at her.

    Rauner made no attempt to run on his record or that his plan of dismantling Madigan is working.

    He should have ignored her and just said, I have enough money to win she doesn’t and he probably would have been better off.

    Stick with the truth, even if unsavory, still better than lies.


  40. - sonny chiss - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 2:03 pm:

    Wasn’t going to bother but this post and comments have me fired up, going to go vote for Ives.


  41. - Generic Drone - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 2:40 pm:

    I registered last time to vote for Sam McCann. Im thinking I might go again to vote against Rauner.


  42. - Aimtomisbehave - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 2:53 pm:

    I think Ives is a terrible candidate & her “thank you” ad made me wish people like her had no place in our political system.

    I still voted for her over Rauner. While I may think she’ll be a terrible Governor,I know Rauner is a terrible Governor. I may think her actions are reprehensible, but they pale in comparison to a person who lied to a man of faith, and has systematically dismantled many social safety programs in Illinois.


  43. - Whatever - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 3:05 pm:

    ==Should the impossible happen and Ives manages to win the primary and the election against the democratic challenger she will be equally if not more horrible to the union and their positions. ==

    But she won’t have the millions to use to threaten Republicans in the GA and elsewhere who don’t do as she commands, as Rauner has done. Or to support any Dunkins who want to jump ship.


  44. - Curmudgeon - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 3:53 pm:

    I’ve been receiving back-to-back robocalls from the Rauner campaign todfay, calling Ives a “tool of the Washington Democrats” and “Madigan’s favorite Republican,” which just remind me of how many outright lies Rauner has told in recent months.

    Even Rush Limbaugh said something strange is going on, given the number of e-mails he received from IL today: https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/03/20/report-from-the-ground-illinois-gop-gubernatorial-primary/


  45. - Skeptic - Tuesday, Mar 20, 18 @ 4:27 pm:

    “I’m shocked that this Governor and his team would give contradictory statements about today’s election.” Keep in mind that this same Governor has made equally contradictory statements about how Illinois is as a place for business.


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