This morning, the Democratic Governors Association launched a new digital video, “Failed Governor,” highlighting the disastrous record of Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner.
Rauner nearly lost his primary to a virtual no-name Republican state representative. He enters the general election as the nation’s most vulnerable governor, with low approval ratings due to his mismanagement of the state.
“Last night’s results confirmed that Democrats, Independents, and Republicans all agree that Bruce Rauner is a failed governor,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “A two-year budget crisis drove up state debt, drove down the state’s credit rating, and devastated social services in Illinois. Add in a pinch of mismanagement, and you get the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent. Illinois voters of all parties have sent a clear message they’re ready for change.”
- Henry Francis - Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 10:58 am:
Or even better OW, ask Rauner.
Doing some back of the envelope number crunching here.
Assume for the general Rauner gets the vote of everyone who voted for him in the primary (345,966) plus everyone who voted for Ives (324,435). I know that second part isn’t gonna happen but let’s just assume it does.
Then assume JB gets the vote of everyone who voted for him in the primary (558,845). That puts JB 111,556 votes behind.
Then take the other 669,799 voters who voted in the Dem primary. Rauner has to hope that JB does not out-perform him by more than 112k among that group of voters.
… the polling where Rauner is in, his favorables and unfavorables aren’t helping, and it’s looking like a blue wave is coming, for a sitting GOP Governor considered the worst GOP governor in America.
Henry Francis, your numbers make zero sense. Zilch. You’re assuming most of the non-JB vote won’t vote for him but most of the non-Rauner vote will? Ummm, yea, ok. How about these numbers, Democrats cast almost twice as many ballots as Republicans. The overwhelming majority of Democrats will vote for JB and almost none will vote for Rauner. So that would be a 600,000 vote margin. Now do I think that’s how this will play out? No. But it makes far more sense than your weird math.
- Henry Francis - Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 12:05 pm:
0091 - you are making my point. We agree. I was pointing out how implausible it is that the Guv gets more votes than JB (based on last night’s votes)
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 10:30 am:
“Pat Quinn failed”
“Bruce Rauner failed”
It’s a playbook that works. Ask Pat Quinn.
- Henry Francis - Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 10:58 am:
Or even better OW, ask Rauner.
Doing some back of the envelope number crunching here.
Assume for the general Rauner gets the vote of everyone who voted for him in the primary (345,966) plus everyone who voted for Ives (324,435). I know that second part isn’t gonna happen but let’s just assume it does.
Then assume JB gets the vote of everyone who voted for him in the primary (558,845). That puts JB 111,556 votes behind.
Then take the other 669,799 voters who voted in the Dem primary. Rauner has to hope that JB does not out-perform him by more than 112k among that group of voters.
I don’t see how that will happen.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 11:03 am:
- Henry Francis -
The numbers are crazy…
… the polling where Rauner is in, his favorables and unfavorables aren’t helping, and it’s looking like a blue wave is coming, for a sitting GOP Governor considered the worst GOP governor in America.
Steep hill.
- Anon0091 - Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 11:34 am:
Henry Francis, your numbers make zero sense. Zilch. You’re assuming most of the non-JB vote won’t vote for him but most of the non-Rauner vote will? Ummm, yea, ok. How about these numbers, Democrats cast almost twice as many ballots as Republicans. The overwhelming majority of Democrats will vote for JB and almost none will vote for Rauner. So that would be a 600,000 vote margin. Now do I think that’s how this will play out? No. But it makes far more sense than your weird math.
- Henry Francis - Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 12:05 pm:
0091 - you are making my point. We agree. I was pointing out how implausible it is that the Guv gets more votes than JB (based on last night’s votes)
- Juice - Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 1:28 pm:
Plus, there will likely be around 2 million more votes cast in the general than in the primary.