Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » COGFA defends itself against Illinois Policy Institute report
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
COGFA defends itself against Illinois Policy Institute report

Friday, Apr 13, 2018

* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s former news service

The state constitution requires lawmakers to pass a budget that only spends what’s estimated to come in for the year. While the Senate has passed a revenue estimate in recent years, the House hasn’t. The number is typically a combination of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and input from the General Assembly.

The Illinois Policy Institute put out a study that showed five of the past ten years COGFA and GOMB’s revenue estimates were off by millions. In fiscal years 2013 and 2014, GOMB under former Gov. Pat Quinn was off by $2.1 billion and $1 billion respectively.

* The Illinois Policy Institute and its legislative allies have been loudly harping on this revenue estimate issue for a few years. My ears perked up when Gov. Rauner said this week that an official revenue estimate was one of his chief demands heading into budget talks. Could Rauner and the Institute be doing a bit of reconciling? Stay tuned.

Anyway, this is from that aforementioned study

Based on the standard for revenue projections used by the National Association of State Budget Officers – estimates within 0.5 percent of actual revenues are considered “on target” – COGFA revenue estimates have been accurate in only four of the last 10 years. GOMB estimates have been on target in only two of the last 10 years.

They include this chart

Pew took a look at this topic a few years ago and found that states are not nearly as accurate as the Institute suggests. 0.5 percent may be considered “on target,” but it’s not what real world prognosticators always get.

* I asked Clayton Klenke, who runs COGFA, for a response…

The table showing actual revenues and the comparisons to revenue estimates serves as a starting point for the analysis, but it is also important to take into consideration the various factors that were occurring which were leading to increased volatility during this time period.

For FY12, this was the first full year of the implementation of the temporary tax increase. Significant changes to tax structures can lead to increased volatility between estimates and actual receipts. Actual income tax receipts performed better than anticipated in FY12 by $349 million.

Again in FY13, actual income tax receipts performed better than estimated. This variance was largely related to the “April Surprise” in which receipts in April 2013 spiked as taxpayers sought to minimize the impact of recently enacted changes in Federal tax policies. The total difference between the FY13 estimate and actual receipts of $348 million is essentially a difference of 1%.

In FY15, there was increased volatility associated with the partial sunset of the temporary tax increase. Once again, actual receipts from income taxes exceeded estimates, with total variance of about 1.3%.

In each of the examples above, actual receipts exceeded estimates, and the variance was about 1%.

For FY16, at first look there appears to be a large variance, with estimates exceeding actual receipts by $1.3 billion. Remember, this was during a time frame when there was not a comprehensive enacted budget. Further examination of this variance shows that of the $1.3 billion in variance, over $1 billion was associated with Federal Sources. Federal Sources are going to be dependent on the enacted budget, bill payment prioritization, and cash flow at the Comptroller’s office. Aside from the Federal Sources, the revenue estimate for FY16 was within about $300 million of actual receipts, less than 1% variance.

Again in FY17, the vast majority of the $804 million in variance in the table is associated with the $517 million variance in Federal Sources. Controlling for the Federal Source number would leave a variance of $287 million - less than 1%.

Emphasis added.

…Adding… From Adam Schuster, director of budget and tax research at the Illinois Policy Institute…

“We wanted to clarify something about the IPI report you posted on your blog today. The takeaway from that report is not that COGFA does a bad job of estimating revenue (”Both COGFA and GOMB are likely doing their best …”). The point is that revenue estimating is a bad way to do budgeting. As we pointed out in the report, only four states were on target for their revenue estimates in 2017, according to the Spring Fiscal Survey of States put out by the National Association of State Budget Officers.

“Our proposal is to enact a spending cap constitutional amendment that would instead give lawmakers a definite amount of money to spend each year. It has bipartisan support in the General Assembly: SJRCA 21, HJRCA 38.”

Except, COGFA does a pretty good job at estimating, as the post shows.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Concerned Dem - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 2:17 pm:

    Now I’ve heard it all… IPI is basing it’s argument on a misleading use of numbers.

  2. - 47th Ward - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 2:19 pm:

    This is the corporate-funded IPI trying to delegitimize two formerly credible organizations. THis is very similar to attempt to delegitimize the CBO in DC.

    The IPI’s motives are transparent, despicable and a threat to democratic self governance.

  3. - Undiscovered country - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 2:25 pm:

    So per Clayton’s analysis, the state’s dysfunction resulted in hundreds of millions in lost federal match revenue. We need to begin to discussion the “Dysfunction Tax” imposed by the ineptitude and brinksmanship. If only we’d had an amendatory veto that first year (and every year thereafter) by a person willing to “take the arrows”, be the grown up in the room and “make the tough choices” rather than the “he did it” approach we’ve witnessed under this Governor…..

  4. - Political Animal - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:10 pm:

    Only in Illinois could missing the mark by over $100 million in 8 out of the last 10 years be considered a “pretty good job at estimating.”

  5. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:13 pm:

    ===Only in Illinois===

    Only in IPI Land is missing the mark by less than a point be grounds for blowing up the whole system.

  6. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:16 pm:

    ====Only in IPI Land is missing the mark by less than a point be grounds for blowing up the whole system.===

    Dorm room perfection meets real world ignorance… IPI

  7. - 47th Ward - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:17 pm:

    Political Animal,

    The state income tax rate changed four times since 2010. That means the estimators had to guess what the impact of the tax hike would be with lots of unknowns surrounding the economy, and doesn’t include the changes at the federal level.

    Given all of that uncertainty and change, you rip them for being off by about 1%?

  8. - Honeybear - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:35 pm:

    This is laying down a marker. Why?
    There’s a gotcha game afoot.
    Could Rauner be laying the groundwork
    To normalize bad numbers?
    I don’t believe there is a rift between Rauner and IPI.
    I believe the breakup was mostly theatrical. Am I wrong?
    I really think that ideologically they are on the same page.
    But why are they laying down this marker?

  9. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:36 pm:

    === I don’t believe there is a rift between Rauner and IPI.===

    Remove tinfoil hat.

  10. - RNUG - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:37 pm:

    When estimating the future with lots of unknowns, 1% is great. Heck, I was happy when I got within 10% given some of the questionable inputs I had to work with.

    If I have have to choose between IPI and COGFA estimates, I’ll take COGFA every time.

  11. - headdesk - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:38 pm:

    ==Only in IPI Land is missing the mark by less than a point be grounds for blowing up the whole system.==

    They were off by $1.3B in FY16. That’s … not good.

  12. - headdesk - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:39 pm:

    Is the National Association of State Budget Officers in “IPI Land”?

  13. - Political Animal - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:52 pm:

    Is it just me or is that Pew study Rich linked making the exact same point as IPI?

    “No state can entirely eliminate forecasting errors. Unexpected economic turns, new legislation, the rise and fall in housing values, and changes in federal policy, such as the 2013 budget deficit reduction plan known as the “fiscal cliff,” guarantee that estimating revenue will always be imprecise.”


    “The increase in errors has not occurred because forecasters are any less adept than in the past. If anything, the science of estimating tax collections has improved markedly due to advances in information technology.”

  14. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:54 pm:

    ===making the exact same point as IPI?===

    If anything, it makes the point that COGFA does much better than the rest of the states.

  15. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 3:55 pm:

    ===They were off by $1.3B in FY16. That’s … not good===

    You have obvious reading comprehension problems.

  16. - Langhorne - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 4:09 pm:

    . The point is that revenue estimating is a bad way to do budgeting.

    So, instead, we should limit GRF ( only?) growth to the rate of increase in the state economy? Dorm room brilliance. Heres a recurring and refreshing thought–just follow the constitution. Ya know, bills, amendments, hearings, 30/60.

  17. - Leigh John-Ella - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 4:16 pm:

    IPI goes after COGFA.
    The shark has been jumped.

    You know, Ec & Fisc never suffered these attacks.

  18. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 4:22 pm:

    ===Dorm room brilliance===

    It’s not a bad idea. I could even be for that. Their logic for why we should do it is flawed.

  19. - Smitty Irving - Friday, Apr 13, 18 @ 4:34 pm:

    IPI attacking COGFA is as credible as Blago / CMS / Rumman attacking OAG / Bill Holland!

TrackBack URI

Post your comment... And please take a half second to come up with a nickname. It makes following the posts easier for everyone... Thanks

In other words, do your best to be civilized and smart.

* Caption contest!
* Federal rules protecting net neutrality have expired! Support House Bill 4819
* Harmon says he has votes in Senate for gun shop licensing override, but future still unsure
* It's just a bill
* Rauner makes "official" trade show announcement seven months after it was announced
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Biss says he wants more details about Pritzker's progressive tax plan, Rauner campaign agrees
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Why was Travis Reinking allowed to keep his guns?
* Comptroller: State racked up "two decades worth of late payment interest penalties in just over two years"
* Madigan says he hasn't made up his mind on legalizing marijuana
* Illinois Legislators: Make Health Coverage Fair by Supporting HB 4146
* Rauner's new website slams Pritzker-Madigan "corruption"
* Today's must-listen: Madigan and lone chairmanship "No" vote together on Joravsky's show
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...









* McHenry County libraries receive grants from Je.....
* Private Lenders Consider Suing State..
* Madigan Re-elected as Head of Democrat Party in.....
* The Carry Out 4-24-18: “I believe that Hester b.....
* The election weirdness is just beginning - MyWe.....

* On Basketball: And now, Wade decides if this was the end
* That's a heavy lift: Rhino at Illinois zoo undergoes CT scan
* Man who disarmed Waffle House shooter hailed by lawmakers
* Will County officials to use 50 percent renewable power
* Court bars winner of 2017 mayoral election from office
* Autopsies unclear on cause of mother's and daughter's deaths
* No gun-licensing override, deadline for action is Wednesday
* The Latest: Suspect faces new charges in shooting
* Court to rule on Illinois village's right-to-work ordinance
* The Latest: Colorado woman urged FBI to 'hold on' to suspect

* Gun dealer licensing veto override vote could happen today
* Appeals court to rule on lawsuit over right-to-work ordinance
* Senate OKs bill to nearly double home care workers' pay
* 4th death reported in Illinois linked to synthetic marijuana
* Google aims at Illinois' privacy law after Facebook lobbying failed
* Illinois Lottery sells tickets for instant games after top prizes are gone
* Michael Madigan wins re-election as Democratic Party leader
* Champaign-area bus company faces harassment lawsuit
* Illinois' late fees skyrocket over past 3 years
* State paying bills, but not late-payment interest

* From 'Mayochup' to potential mayhem: Kraft Heinz and social media
* Sinclair agrees to sell 23 TV stations as part of Tribune deal
* Sinclair agrees to sell WGN-TV—but would still control it
* Robert Malott, CEO who wrestled with Boesky's crimes and Continental's downfall, dies at 91

* Officer wounded while responding to domestic battery in Woodlawn
* Massage therapist accuses Stan Lee of sexual misconduct at South Loop hotel
* Dear Abby: Sweetheart, come look at Internet porn with me
* With Avisail Garcia on the DL, Daniel Palka prepares to make White Sox debut
* Horoscope for April 25, 2018
* 2 men shot in Chicago Lawn
* Man, 45, critically wounded in Lawndale shooting
* Police: Man shot to death in Austin
* Bears GM Pace has been around for 3 seasons but doesn’t have much to show for it
* Ex-Cubs manager Baker says he would represent Giants if elected to Hall of Fame

* Supreme Court's last argument is over Trump travel ban
* 2-year-old boy shot in Joliet: police
* 1 dead, at least 10 wounded in Chicago shootings since noon Tuesday
* For Bears to nail this draft, they must find a high-quality player at the top of Round 2
* First lady steps into spotlight for state visit with France
* Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ pace Cubs to 10-3 victory over Indians
* Cubs pitcher Tyler Chatwood trying to find his groove on the mound
* Parolee who escaped custody on South Side arrested in Glenview
* Federal judge orders Trump administration to continue DACA program and accept new applicants
* With Avisail Garcia on 10-day DL, White Sox call up Daniel Palka

» April 24, 2018 - Full Show
» Proposal To Get Pre-Trial Detainees A Chance To Vote From Jail Passes IL House
» Getting Books To Illinois Prisons; Virtual Medical Interpreters; Chicago’s Gang Database
» Illinois Pushes For State Net Neutrality Rules After Federal Rules Expire
» Prince Heirs Sue Illinois Hospital Over Care During Overdose
» Immigrants Shine In New CPS Varsity Sport
» State Legislature Considers Tougher Penalties on Texting While Driving
» April 20, 2018 - Full Show
» April 23, 2018 - Full Show
» Madigan Elected For 6th Term As Democratic Party Chairman

* Gun dealer licensing veto override vote could happen today
* Our View: Budgets should include estimates of late payment interest penalties
* Guest View: Illinois’ 4 pillars of bad budgeting
* Byron York: Is 'can't prove untrue' the new standard in Trump probe?
* Marc Thiessen: Veterans deserve better
* Catherine Rampell: Tax cuts were supposed to save the GOP from Trump. Oops.
* Appeals court to rule on lawsuit over right-to-work ordinance
* Senate OKs bill to nearly double home care workers' pay
* 4th death reported in Illinois linked to synthetic marijuana
* Google aims at Illinois' privacy law after Facebook lobbying failed

* Oakwood launches community center plans
* Phyllis Jean Borgsmiller
* Norma Ruth Faro
* Mildred J. “Millie” Kahre
* Keith O’Neil Ginn
* Winning streaks
* Rodgers returns to B-N for Red Cross event
* Ahead of the curve: Students in the CEO Program show off their businesses
* First phase of Main Street Landing, fireworks ordinance on council agenda
* Davenport unveils neighborhood revitalization goals

* More than 70 nations hold talks on terror financing in Paris
* Tourists enjoy final day at beach before Boracay closure
* On Basketball: And now, Wade decides if this was the end
* Warriors advance looking to build off strong first round
* Outrage in China over pressure on student to stop activism

* Bike Bald's Spin-a-thon/Kids Fest to have ...
* Correction: US-House-Democrats-Leadership ...
* Two Primary Races You Might Have Missed
* 9 TV characters who were recast... and the...
* House's Steny Hoyer takes a last shot at t...
* HF student's work to be displayed in US Ca...
* Indian-American Democrat looks to win key ...
* Alzheimer's a public health, not aging, issue
* Students push for gun control at packed Gl...
* Jared Kushner's firm 'under investigation'...

* Durbin praises FDA's new measures cracking......
* E-Cigarette Sting Operation Prompts Warnin......
* FDA Cracks Down On Juul E-Cigarettes Popul......
* E-Cigarette Sting Operation Prompts US War......
* A tough re-election climate tests the chum......

* Tammy Duckworth and Working Moms Like Mine...
* The Senate celebrates Sen. Tammy Duckworth......
* Editorial: Up to the task...
* I'm a legislator and a mom. Tammy Duckwort......
* Tammy Duckworth is uniquely privileged, bu......

* Apprenticeships
* ‘Reefer Madness’-type rhetoric bound to swarm over Ill.; will Lege ignore it?
* Martysaurus Rex: A Creative Life More Important Than Football
* Piece's TV
* The [Wednesday] Papers
* Woman Missing From Buena Park
* Online Learning Shouldn’t Be ‘Less Than’
* Florida’s push for online courses benefits all, including STEM students
* Universities must expand reach to stay competitive
* Class Central Learner Survey (2017): MOOC Users Highly Educated, Have Experienced Career Benefits

* IEMA Highlights Role of Volunteers in Disasters
* Governor Rauner activates State Emergency Operations Center in Springfield
* February Flooding Information
* IEMA Urges People to Prepare for Severe Weather
* Governor issues state disaster proclamation for flooding in Iroquois, Kankakee, Vermilion Counties

* The OnePlus 6 is launching on May 16
* 10 startups busy saving the planet while you can’t even separate your waste
* Opera Touch is a new Android browser tailored for one-handed use
* OnePlus 6 will be launched in India on May 17, just next day after global unveil
* Opera now lets you beam content from your phone to your desktop
* Artificial intelligence will be worth $1.2 trillion to the enterprise in 2018
* Opera Touch is a new one-handed browser for Android (and soon iOS)

* Mariners shut out White Sox, rubber match Wednesday vs King Felix
* White Sox Minor League Update: April 24, 2018
* Mariners shutout White Sox, rubber match Wednesday vs King Felix
* Renteria tossed arguing called third strike
* Relievers keep M's in check, but White Sox fall
* Renteria tossed arguing called third strike
* Renteria tossed arguing called third strike

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller