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PPP: Rodney Davis up by only 3, Hultgren ahead by just 4

Thursday, Apr 26, 2018

* Public Policy Polling poll conducted for Patriot Majority PAC

In Illinois’ 13th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Rodney Davis has an approval rating of 40%, and 39% disapprove of his job performance. President Trump has an approval rating of 45% and a disapproval rating of 50% in Davis’ district. Speaker Paul Ryan is unpopular with 34% of voters saying they approve of the job he is doing and a majority (50%) responding that they disapprove.

In an initial hypothetical matchup, Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan receives 42% of the vote and Davis receives 45%. Although Dirksen Londrigan is down, 48% who are ‘very excited’ to vote plan to cast their ballot for her, while 44% support Davis. A large majority of voters (78%) indicate they have major (62%) or minor (16%) concerns after Davis voted for a health care plan that allows insurance companies to impose an unfair age tax on people over 50. After voters were given more information about the tax and health care plans, the race ties up with both candidates receiving 43% of the vote. […]

PPP surveyed 726 IL-13 voters from April 16-17, 2018. The margin of error is +/- 3.6%. This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews.

So, it’s a robopoll. Keep that in mind

* Next

In Illinois’ 14th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Randy Hultgren has an approval rating of 30%, and 43% disapprove of his job performance. President Trump has an approval rating of 43% and a disapproval rating of 52% in Hultgren’s district. Speaker Paul Ryan is unpopular with 35% of voters saying they approve of the job he is doing and a majority (55%) responding that they disapprove.

In an initial hypothetical matchup, Democrat Lauren Underwood receives 41% of the vote and Hultgren receives 45%. Although Underwood is down, 52% who are ‘very excited’ to vote plan to cast their ballot for her, while 40% support Hultgren. A large majority of voters (83%) indicate they have major (66%) or minor (17%) concerns after Hultgren voted for a health care plan that allows insurance companies to impose an unfair age tax on people over 50. After voters were given more information about the tax and health care plans, the race ties up with both candidates receiving 42% of the vote. […]

PPP surveyed 682 IL-14 voters from April 16-17, 2018. The margin of error is +/- 3.8%. This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews.

* And

* Meanwhile…

DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján today announced that clean energy entrepreneur and IL-06 Democratic nominee Sean Casten has earned a spot on the DCCC’s highly competitive Red to Blue program.

Sean Casten has worked hard in his suburban Chicago district to earn a spot on Red to Blue by surpassing aggressive goals for grassroots engagement, local support, campaign organization and fundraising. Beyond his demonstrated abilities to build a winning campaign infrastructure, Casten has a record as a job creator and deep ties to the community he aims to represent.

“With a principled and commonsense approach, Sean Casten will put economic opportunity and affordable healthcare for families ahead of special interests, which has clearly resonated in this district,” said DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján. “Sean is a scientist, engineer, and entrepreneur whose experience creating jobs and solving problems is something we need more of in Congress. With a strong grassroots campaign at his back, Sean Casten is ready to flip this district in November.”

Red to Blue is a highly competitive and battle-tested program at the DCCC that arms top-tier candidates with organizational and fundraising support to help them continue to run strong campaigns. Additionally, the DCCC provides strategic guidance, staff resources, candidate trainings, and more.

In 2018, the DCCC will make more targeted and frequent additions to the Red to Blue program than in previous election cycles.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

23 Comments
  1. - FDB - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 10:47 am:

    Do robopoll’s generally over represent Dems? Or are they just unreliable?

    Genuinely curious.


  2. - Anonymous - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 10:48 am:

    Would the NRCC support Sam McCann’s candidacy as a way of increasing Republican turnout in competitive districts?


  3. - Arsenal - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 10:50 am:

    ==Would the NRCC support Sam McCann’s candidacy as a way of increasing Republican turnout in competitive districts?==

    Nah, for a lot of reasons the NRCC can’t play in a Governor’s race, or give money to another party. Donors would lose their minds.


  4. - Juice - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 10:51 am:

    FDB, robopoll’s by law can’t call cell phones, so the demographics of who is reached tend the skew older and wealthier.


  5. - cdog - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 10:55 am:

    It’s too bad that the monopolies of information networks, prefer to endorse candidates that put globalization interest ahead of the interest of Americans.

    The msm has been brutal on Trump for a reason. He is an existential threat to their view of world order.


  6. - UIUC - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 10:58 am:

    An important point for IL-13 especially, since it’s a robopoll, no college students were likely hit with it since none have landlines, could change it 2-3% more for Londrigan. UIUC, SIUE, ISU all in the district


  7. - Leatherneck - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 11:06 am:

    - UIUC - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 10:58 am:

    An important point for IL-13 especially, since it’s a robopoll, no college students were likely hit with it since none have landlines, could change it 2-3% more for Londrigan. UIUC, SIUE, ISU all in the district

    Plus UIS and Millikin.


  8. - FDB - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 11:18 am:

    ==FDB, robopoll’s by law can’t call cell phones, so the demographics of who is reached tend the skew older and wealthier.==

    Interesting! So Dems may in fact be under-represented?


  9. - Sawyer - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 11:18 am:

    IL-13 also includes Illinois Wesleyan, Blackburn College, Principia College (though that one is pretty conservative) and several community colleges, including Heartland, Parkland, Lewis & Clark, and Lincoln Land. If college students and women turn out in November, this district might finally swing the way it was drawn to go.


  10. - bob da builder - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 11:22 am:

    Don’t forget Richland in Decatur!


  11. - Bring back - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 11:47 am:

    A robo dem push poll that still has dems down? Whoa.


  12. - Dave Fako - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 11:58 am:

    Surveys conducted exclusively via IVR (Interactive Voice Recording) — i.e. “robo” methods are legally prohibited from calling cell phones, unless the call is initiated by a professional human interviewer, then handed to the computer. Some IVR pollsters supplement with interviewer conducted cell phone surveys or an Internet panel, but that washes out the cost saving of IVR. Generally, an IVR exclusive poll will skew much older in its sample, because it is challenging to find a voter under age 30, and stretching into the 35+ age range now, on a landline. Cell phone only households (CPO) make up at least 48% of all households in Illinois, and when cell phone mostly (have landline, rarely if ever use it), its well over 50%. Our polls are generally at least 35%, and frequently upwards of 70% conducted via cell phone now. Our firm stopped using IVR polls about 5-6 years ago because of reliability issues.


  13. - Arsenal - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 12:00 pm:

    ==A robo dem push poll that still has dems down?==

    Whatever you gotta tell yourself, BB.


  14. - JB13 - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 12:14 pm:

    Trump is 13 points more popular in IL-14 than Hultgren, per that poll. If Hultgren can mitigate the enthusiasm gap, perhaps enough anti-establishment Trumpkins can be persuaded losing this race would actually *not* help their beloved president (i.e., Underwood would be a sure vote for impeachment, would vote to continue the Russia collusion investigation, raise their taxes, legislatively implement DACA, whatever, etc.), Hultgren could leverage the power of incumbency to hold on. And it may come down to how much money the Dems are willing to throw at the race, particularly if they feel they have better chances at taking down Davis and Roskam. In Illinois, in 2018, Republican is a bad name to hold, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Kinzinger and one other are last man standing for the GOP when the smoke clears in November.

    And I say that not knowing if there is any similar polling on Kinzinger…


  15. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 12:30 pm:

    ===If Hultgren can mitigate the enthusiasm gap, perhaps enough anti-establishment Trumpkins can be persuaded losing this race would actually *not* help their beloved president===

    Except the President is under water, according to that poll.


  16. - supplied_demand - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 12:30 pm:

    ==The msm has been brutal on Trump for a reason. He is an existential threat to their view of world order. ==

    Is this why they covered his every move before and after the election? I remember seeing an empty podium on CNN all the time back in 2016.


  17. - Ron - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 1:31 pm:

    cdog, you really think Donnie gives one gram of care about dying towns in rural America?


  18. - Ron - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 1:33 pm:

    PPP is a highly respected polling firm. Those Republicans are likely toast, which is good. They are horrible representatives.


  19. - Ron - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 1:49 pm:

    I am an american and my interests lie in free and efficient markets that allow me access to products. It’s not in my interest to subsidize coal miners in West Virginia or a car part supplier in Ohio.


  20. - Arsenal - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 2:10 pm:

    ==The msm has been brutal on Trump for a reason.==

    Yes, his manifest inability to do the job.


  21. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 2:43 pm:

    –It’s too bad that the monopolies of information networks, –

    You really can’t have “monopolies” of the same thing.

    And there is hardly a “monopoly” of “information networks.” There are more instantly accessible media outlets across all platforms than ever before.

    You can choose from the cafeteria of outlets and create your own network of crackpot sources. As I’m sure you know.


  22. - Ron - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 2:59 pm:

    FiveThirtyEight gives PPP a B+ and a slight republican bias.


  23. - BlueDogDem - Thursday, Apr 26, 18 @ 3:24 pm:

    Ron. What are free and efficient markets.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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