* Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball…
To the east, the Illinois gubernatorial contest appears increasingly uncompetitive. Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) began the 2018 cycle as the most endangered incumbent Republican in the country and his position has really only worsened since then. Rauner only narrowly won renomination in the March primary against state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R), indicating the GOP base’s frustration with the incumbent.
Following the primary, the Crystal Ball shifted its rating in Illinois from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Since the primary, every general election poll has found billionaire businessman J.B. Pritzker (D) comfortably ahead of Rauner.
While Rauner has a great deal of personal wealth, Pritzker’s bank account has an extra zero in it, and the Democratic nominee outspent Rauner $20.1 million to $7.8 million in the second quarter of 2018. What’s more, because many Republicans are displeased with Rauner, political space has opened for the third-party bid by state Sen. Sam McCann (R). As the Conservative Party nominee, the state senator is running to the right of Rauner on fiscal and social issues, though McCann has a pro-union record. McCann seems likely to peel at least a few Republican votes away from the incumbent, making Rauner’s reelection path even more difficult.
The Crystal Ball typically gives incumbents the benefit of the doubt, but there has been no good news for Rauner in 2018. The Land of Lincoln contest is now rated as Likely Democratic.
With the three ratings changes in Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa, the Crystal Ball now rates nine gubernatorial races as Toss-ups, with 18 others favoring Republicans to some degree and nine more favoring Democrats to some extent. We now view Illinois as the likeliest party flip among the 36 gubernatorial contests in 2018.
* DGA…
“Bruce Rauner needed a turnaround this summer, but the most vulnerable incumbent is finding he cannot escape his three years of failed leadership,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “With no positive record to run on, Rauner has been reduced to running desperate negative ads and cozying up to Donald Trump.”
- Macbeth - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:29 pm:
Meh.
Everybody will fall in line when they punch their ballots.
It’s tribal now.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:35 pm:
This makes me even more confused Pritzker ran that terrible, fraudulent immigration ad last week.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:43 pm:
Larry is hopeful he is more correct than his presidential prediction.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:43 pm:
–While Rauner has a great deal of personal wealth, Pritzker’s bank account has an extra zero in it,–
Never underestimate the Power of Zero.
Took away Rauner’s greatest advantage, by far.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:44 pm:
I look at this race from this perspective.
Rauner is roughly 15 points underwater.
Rauner is trailing Pritzker by 9 points.
The BTIA(tm) continues to make a mathematical and fundamental error as they ignore the obvious. Rauner is unlikable, and Rauner needs to be more likable to make up 9 points, when the underwater number continues to be where people don’t approve.
The messaging errors that Pritzker Crew makes (like national talking points in July and a phony accusation within a national narrative) aren’t going to be enough for Rauner, because even those errors don’t make Rauner more likable.
If those 3 ads Rich highlighted yesterday are any indication where Pritzker’s Crew will “stay” and show the talent to bury Rauner, who is the worst Republican governor and most vulnerable governor in America, then that could be the recipe thru September, along with the serious money in infrastructure and GOTV… that’s how a solid campaign buries Rauner.
If the Pritzker Crew continues to insert national talking points before October, even if they also continue to remind Illinois “Bruce Rauner fails”, those national Democratic talking points could make GOP voters leery of Pritzker, and give Rauner some base that has up to now abandoned him.
We’ll see how the Pritzker Crew wants to message…
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:44 pm:
Dems can NOT just expect to win this without a continuous, maximum effort, polls or no polls. Probably the thing that could depress dem turnout most is assuming this contest is in the bag. You don’t stop driving to the win until you’ve actually won.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-Obs9zzew0
- Stuntman Bob's Brother - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:46 pm:
==It’s tribal now==
Yep, all about the turnout. Which I would give to the D’s at this point, the Unions are energized in their hatred for Rauner, fueled by Janus. The R’s, not so much, due to Rauner signing the abortion funding law, etc..
I had a friend tell me recently, “I don’t know who the winner of the governor’s race will be. But the loser will be Illinois”.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:46 pm:
===This makes me even more confused Pritzker ran that terrible, fraudulent immigration ad last week.===
Total, 100%, head scratcher… inserting a national talking point to fraudulently, then doubling down, go there… it’s a head scratcher.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:57 pm:
==The BTIA(tm) continues to make a mathematical and fundamental error as they ignore the obvious. Rauner is unlikable, and Rauner needs to be more likable to make up 9 points, when the underwater number continues to be where people don’t approve.==
The one caveat to this that I would suggest is that they have, periodically, tried to make Rauner more likable (duct tape ads, the school funding reform tour). They just haven’t taken. This may be what they’re stuck with.
- a drop in - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 12:57 pm:
==It’s tribal now==
True that. Survey Monkey has the R’s approving on Trumps meeting with Putin 58-40. D’s dis-approve 91-7. Note Ind’s disapprove 62-33.
How many R’s became Ind’s is the question.
- Real - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 1:02 pm:
Talk about making GovJunk more likeable.. I notice they scrapped Brewskies with Bruce.
This wolf in sheep’s clothing is not likable and never will be.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 1:04 pm:
===…tried to make Rauner more likable (duct tape ads, the school funding reform tour). They just haven’t taken. This may be what they’re stuck with.===
Yeah, if they have resigned themselves to a fact they accept that Bruce is unlikable and will likely be underwater up to Election Day, then that’s also admitting an incumbent being underwater and unlikable has but one chance, and that’s why we see the Madigan-Pritzker ads, and see a 9-point spread dictated also by a 15 point underwater opinion of Rauner.
Yikes, that’s a lot of ignoring, but…
- SSL - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 1:28 pm:
Yogi Berra said it ain’t over till it’s over, but he was wrong, this one is all over. Bruce should save his time and money. JB should get himself a personal trainer and dietician. He’s going to need to be in great shape to survive the storm he’s headed into.
And in a few years we can all celebrate how JB, Madigan and Cullerton solved the biggest problems facing the once great State of Illinois. Or not.
- Chris Widger - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 1:37 pm:
==And in a few years we can all celebrate how JB, Madigan and Cullerton solved the biggest problems facing the once great State of Illinois. ==
I am so excited for the next eight years of having 90% of my comments not posted to the site (which is Rich’s right) because they all attack Pritzker for not solving the state’s long-term issues and making things worse.
- Pundent - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 1:58 pm:
=This makes me even more confused Pritzker ran that terrible, fraudulent immigration ad last week.=
I don’t know. I see this as nothing more than an attempt to energize the base. The Pritzker group new that this was a thin or non-existent thread to pull on and still ran the ad. They even doubled down on it. I suspect that they will continue to look for ways to connect Rauner to Trump even if the connections are strained because it will get Dem’s to the polls.
The other ads are where they hope to capture Independents that are on the fence.
And if this is a tribal at this point that has to bode well for Pritzker. It’s still a blue state and he only has to worry about getting his tribe to the polls.
- Ike - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 2:25 pm:
Chris widget = snowflake
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 3:27 pm:
===I am so excited for the next eight years of … my comments… because they all attack Pritzker for not solving the state’s long-term issues and making things worse.===
(Sigh)
Governors own. They always do.
A “Governor Pritzker” will face the incumbent scrutiny.
Cripes, you’re whining already, it’s July, weeks away from the election, let alone a transition… if there is one.
Be better.
- nonBeliever - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 5:00 pm:
Really don’t see how JB can lose in this state unless something really negative comes up.
- Stuntman Bob's Brother - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 8:59 pm:
==Really don’t see how JB can lose in this state unless something really negative comes up==
Or unless one of the candidates chokes to death on a ham sandwich on November 1st. Which is probably why both candidates will hang in to the bitter end, you never know in politics. Just ask Hubert Humphrey.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jul 19, 18 @ 9:22 pm:
Sabado is being cautious.
Rauner underperformed and Pritzker overperformed so far this year.
Rauner will be lucky to break 30%.