* Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball today…
— Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.
— We’re making 17 House ratings changes this week, all in favor of the Democrats.
US Rep. Peter Roskam’s district was moved from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.”
* From the Chicago Republican Party…
Counter-protest for Peter Roskam, this Thursday
Peter Roskam is in the fight of his life and he needs our help this Thursday. His race was just changed from “Likely Republican” to “Toss-up”. If we hope to keep this district from turning Blue in November, we need to match the other side’s intensity right now.
We just got wind that the Democrats are planning to protest at the sold-out debate between Peter and his opponent this Thursday evening in Chicago. They’re planning on having over 100 people there. This is a perfect opportunity for us to show we are ready to fight. Can you come show your support for Peter outside the event this Thursday?
We are gathering with our signs at the north east corner of Jackson and Clark (courtyard of the Federal Building) across from the Union League Club (65 Jackson Blvd, Chicago) where the debate is taking place starting at 4:30 PM and going until the debate starts at 6 PM.
We’re also having a bus take supporters from the suburbs to downtown and back! We’re meeting in Wheaton at 3:15 PM and plan on having everyone back by 7:15. If you’d like to take the bus, let us know and we’ll send you more details!
We can’t let the Democrats’ protest go unanswered, especially on such an important debate night!
* Speaking of the debate, here’s Shia Kapos…
Thursday’s Lincoln Forum debate between Republican Rep. Peter Roskam and Democratic challenger Sean Casten is sold out. The event was only supposed to have 100 audience guests, ideally supporters evenly split between the two candidates. But when tickets went on sale, Casten’s supporters gobbled them up. Lincoln Forum co-founders Pat Brady, the former state GOP chairman, and Eric Adelstein, a Dem strategist, decided out of fairness to sell an additional 70 tickets to Roskam supporters. “The Lincoln Forum is nonpartisan and we have a duty to have a balanced room,” Brady said.
I’m told that Casten’s campaign manager bought a big block of tickets, so this reaction seems reasonable to me.
* But check out Casten’s response via press release…
Organizers of Thursday’s debate originally proposed 100 tickets sales, the parties agreed, and both candidates were informed simultaneously of the procedures for online sale. Those 100 seats sold quickly. Thereafter, Peter Roskam expressed concern that more tickets had been purchased by Casten supporters, and insisted upon an additional ticket allotment exclusively for his campaign as a condition to participate. The debate organizers complied, providing Roskam’s campaign with access to a secret stash of 70 additional tickets to the sold-out debate.
“Sixth District residents are clamoring to hear Peter Roskam defend his actions in Washington D.C. When given an opportunity — at $33 per ticket versus free of charge — they jumped. Our campaigns agreed to rules for this debate, but now Peter Roskam wants to change them after the fact in his favor.”
“We still eagerly look forward to the debate on Thursday, but Peter Roskam should agree right now to more debates at home in larger, free venues so all Sixth District residents have a fair and open opportunity to hear about our campaigns. If Peter Roskam is afraid of his own constituents, how can we expect him to stand up to Donald Trump?”
Sigh.
* On to another topic…
Anyone watching their TV recently may have been startled to see—months earlier than most political spots usually arrive—a TV ad promoting the accomplishments of U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Wheaton.
The ad now has disappeared from the airwaves. But consider it an omen of what’s to come. […]
The [$209K American Chemistry Council] ad hails Roskam’s work on behalf of the tax bill that Congress approved under strong pleadings by President Donald Trump. The congressman “fought to reform our nation’s tax code to lower taxes for middle class families so they can keep more of their hard earned money,” said ACC President and CEO Cal Dooley in a statement. “His leadership on tax reform has also benefited businesses by allowing them to reinvest in their employees in Illinois and across America.”
Casten’s campaign sees it a lot differently.
It emphasizes that the chemistry council’s members include units of major petroleum companies including BP, Chevron, Occidental and Total, all of which received big benefits from the tax bill. Roskam further voted to open oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and restrict federal limits on methane emissions in oil drilling on federal land, it says. More generally, says Casten, “As a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee, Peter Roskam has done a lot of favors for big corporations—not the least of which was giving them billions of dollars in tax cuts in the tax bill he authored. Now these corporate PACs are repaying him for those favors—and hoping for more.”
* Related…
* Casten, Roskam debate spending bill to strengthen election security
* Rep. Roskam, challenger Casten to face off in heated debate
- PJ - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 2:56 pm:
Here’s a list of people who care about Peter Roskam enough to come “counter-protest” for him without being paid:
- A guy - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:03 pm:
Guess it works for both sides now to call this a “toss up”. It isn’t.
- illini - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:08 pm:
The Bost - Kelly race has also been rated a “toss up”.
Given the Bost aversion to public appearances and venues, I have to wonder if we will see anything like this in Southern Illinois.
- train111 - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:16 pm:
The Casten people certainly and the Dems in DuPage seem to be really working this election. At least from what I saw in my town so far. Things have changed and if the DuPage GOP thinks they can just phone it in and win like every other year, they’re going to have their keysters handed to them on a plate. You heard it hear 1st.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:24 pm:
==Guess it works for both sides now to call this a “toss up”.==
It’s a better strategy than relying on your wish book.
- Lefty Lefty - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:24 pm:
It seems the Lincoln Forum better up its ticket sales game. Why in the world would it allow block ticket sales?
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:26 pm:
Roskam just working that entitlement mentality.
Nothing says working it for “the middle class” than the American Chemistry Council.
- James the Intolerant - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:28 pm:
THe nation’s tax code was not reformed, corporate America received a large tax cut, middle class received a pittance.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:40 pm:
===We’re meeting in Wheaton at 3:15 PM and plan on having everyone back by 7:15.===
In my experience driving in Chicagoland, that won’t leave them much time to actually get off the bus before they have to turn around and head back to Wheaton. Maybe they’ll just honk and wave?
Bussed in protesters: about as effective as Republicans in Congress.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:47 pm:
===We’re meeting in Wheaton at 3:15 PM and plan on having everyone back by 7:15.===
The debate starts at 6 p.m. They’re not going to be back in Wheaton at 7:15 p.m., unless those buses have wings and jet engines.
From the Chicago Republican Party…. I guess that explains it.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 3:49 pm:
For a guy whose party is stacking the deck on everything from voter suppression to voter purges, it’s pretty rich to be whining about the other side taking advantage of the rules. Would like some cheese with that whine, Pete?
And “A Guy,” it’s not the “other side” calling it a toss-up. It’s one of the big three political analysts (Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato). They always play it up the middle and call it like they see it.
- slow down - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 4:26 pm:
What’s Roskam’s rationale for reelection. His tax bill? The recent Bloomberg report highlighting that wages are going down following the bill’s passage, while corporations and the top 1% received billions in tax breaks is devastating for Roskam.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 4:26 pm:
Protest rookies….
- No Longer A Lurker - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 4:39 pm:
Limiting the state income tax and property tax deduction to $10000 will have a negative impact on a number of his constituents. There are good number of his constituents in the northwest burbs that have real estate tax bills north of $15k and some of those bill are way north of 15k.
- BlueDogDem - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 4:41 pm:
This is what has become of our two party system. Protests and counter protests at a debate. Think about it. If we don’t break from the status quo in this country. We are doomed.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 6:00 pm:
And here I thought the conventional wisdom was that only dems bus in people from outside a voting area. Roskam must be in trouble.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 6:05 pm:
–This is what has become of our two party system. Protests and counter protests at a debate. –
You’re nostalgic for a time that never was.
You might want to read some American history. Maybe start with the Adams/Jefferson contests.
- Union Thug Gramma - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 6:10 pm:
Roskam is what I’m stuck with. In the past 2 years, we (constituents, Illinois Alliance for Retired Americans) have had one sitdown…he was condescending, arrogant and basically told us we didn’t know what we were talking about. HE NEEDS TO GO.
- jwk - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 9:03 pm:
sure would like to see the shimkus gaither race reading TOSS UP
- BlueDogDem - Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 9:03 pm:
Word. Stay optimistic. Somebody has to. I can’t anymore. Never in my life have I seen the intolerance of another’s beliefs or opinions. Why? I am not smart enough for that one. If you are. Share it. Maybe I can learn something. This country is not in a good place when it comes to politics. I wasn’t around in the civil war era, but it doesn’t seem a whole lot different from what I can tell from readin.
- Pundent - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 6:42 am:
=Never in my life have I seen the intolerance of another’s beliefs or opinions. Why? I am not smart enough for that one. If you are. Share it.=
Well since you asked. As Daniel Patrick Moynihan said. “You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.” There’s a lot to be learned from that statement especially for you.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 7:36 am:
– Never in my life have I seen the intolerance of another’s beliefs or opinions. –
Packing a hall for a candidates debate? Oh, the humanity. It’s the oldest gag in the book. You’re doing your troll thing.
–I wasn’t around in the civil war era, but it doesn’t seem a whole lot different from what I can tell from readin.–
And doubling down on the troll.
Were you around when workers got beaten or killed trying to organize steel plants? Civil rights marches? Kent and Jackson states? Or you just didn’t care?
You just don’t like it when someone disagrees with you. That ain’t exactly the Civil War, except to you when you gaze into your navel.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 9:20 am:
==This is what has become of our two party system. Protests and counter protests at a debate.==
What’s the problem? You don’t like a politician, you can say so. You don’t like the guy criticizing a politician, you can say that, too. I’m honestly having trouble seeing why more people actively engaging in the democratic process risks “doom” unless you have some sort of thing where you’d rather keep people out.
- Jerry - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:52 am:
I find it curious that Roskam refuses to have town hall meetings AND has to bus people in to counter-protest. Tells you something about ground-level support vs. big money support. Maybe like the groundhog, Roskam decided it was time to crawl out of his hole.