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Two different polls, two different candidate lists, two different results

Monday, Sep 10, 2018

* It’s far too early to pick horse-race winners and losers with robopolls like these. These are just fun snapshots in time, and perhaps blurry snapshots at that. Here’s Mary Ann Ahern

In a brand new SEIU poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle leads the field with 25 percent of the vote. Preckwinkle is expected to announce Monday that she will form an exploratory committee to run in the February contest. […]

Undecided voters check into second place in the poll, with 19 percent of voters saying they are unsure as to whom they will support.

Paul Vallas is in third at 16 percent, former Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy is in fourth at 13 percent, and businessman Willie Wilson is in fifth with 10 percent of the vote.

The poll spoke to 600 likely voters, with a plus or minus average of 4.9.

Several possible candidates weren’t tested in the poll, however, including Chi Party Aunt, my own personal favorite

* But, wait, there’s more. Greg Hinz

Pitted in a head-to-head contest, U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez gets the support of 21 percent of respondents. That puts him just ahead of former Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy, at 18 percent, and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle’s 16 percent.

Trailing are former Police Board President Lori Lightfoot and former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, at 10 percent each. Both already were running before Emanuel folded his re-election race. City Treasurer Kurt Summers got just 4 percent.

Fifteen percent of those questioned said they are undecided, and 7 percent said they back another, unspecified candidate.

Given the results, the totals appear largely based on name recognition, though the finding that Preckwinkle trails Gutierrez and McCarthy may indicate voters remain upset at a series of tax hikes she pushed through.

* Meanwhile, Mark Brown has a very good column on what it will take to get through this campaign

How does someone put together an undertaking as vast as a mayoral campaign with so much to do in so little time? Where does one even start?

Obviously, the path is different for a major elected officeholder with an existing political infrastructure such as County Board President Toni Preckwinkle or state Comptroller Susana Mendoza than it would be for 2011 mayoral candidate Gery Chico, who in effect must put the band back together.

But the essentials are the same: assemble a team, raise money, pass petitions to get on the ballot, formulate a message, assemble a field operation that can identify supporters and get out the vote, and develop a media strategy that includes television advertising, direct mail and making connections via social media.

As far as that team goes, minimum needs are a professional fundraiser, a scheduler, a campaign manager, a press secretary, a media consultant, a direct mail consultant, a social media consultant and maybe an additional fundraiser to pay for the above.

Go read the whole thing. I would only add one point: There is a finite list of experienced people who can do all these jobs and an almost infinite number of candidates right now.

* Other stuff…

* Amanda Kass: Some Looming Pension Questions: As I see it candidates have three choices: First, they could pledge to cut pensions, thereby reducing pension contributions. But, the Emanuel administration already tried that, and the state supreme court ruled that effort unconstitutional. The other two options are: cutting spending or raising revenue. While many of the already announced candidates haven’t given detailed plans the common themes have been: a) stated commitment to make the payments; b) criticism of increased property taxes (which were increased to make the pension payments); and c) a desire to have a progressive revenue structure. I haven’t seen much discussion on cutting spending. Thus, it seems like most candidates are going with the raising revenue option.

* Post-‘Rahmbo’ Chicago and the Death of Triangulation: Without that threat, individual aldermen could very well break free of their infamous “rubber stamp council” label and substantively push back on the next mayor’s agenda. And the city’s activist community, which is deservedly viewing Mr. Emanuel’s exit as a victory, is poised to draw more clout, if not a big seat at the table.

* Mariame Kaba: Social Movements Brought Down Rahm—Now They Can Transform Chicago: I said at the beginning I’m surprised that he’s not running, but not shocked. He was under relentless pressure from the moment he won. He was under pressure before he won because people knew what kind of Democrat he was—from the corporate wing of the Democratic Party. The protests have been relentless. Rahm’s wife Amy Rule said in an interview a few days ago that “it’s no fun for [his family] having their front yard picketed.” We’re supposed to feel sorry for him because of that statement, when in fact what that shows is that people were relentless in pushing back against him all the time, which is exhausting and it can feel so futile. It can feel like people’s suffering is increasing and you’re having to fight like hell but seeing only minimal positive results.

* Rev. Jackson sets up transparent vetting process for a new mayor

- Posted by Rich Miller        

9 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 10, 18 @ 12:53 pm:

    The powers that selected and elected the last two mayors, hasn’t yet chosen Emanuel’s replacement.


  2. - Humboldt Boulevard - Monday, Sep 10, 18 @ 1:17 pm:

    Instant Runoff Voting results would be fascinating if we had it in place for this race.


  3. - anon - Monday, Sep 10, 18 @ 1:48 pm:

    Kaba’s conclusion that Emmanuel’s departure means protesting at homes (and presumably everywhere else) to ‘exhaust’ the politician works may be correct. It is quite disheartening.


  4. - anon - Monday, Sep 10, 18 @ 1:49 pm:

    Is Rev. Jackson saying the winning candidate will have just 10% of the vote: “Rev. Jackson said you have to have 10 percent of the white Lakefront vote, 10 percent of the Latino vote and the black vote for a victory.”


  5. - Amalia - Monday, Sep 10, 18 @ 2:46 pm:

    Chi Party Aunt….awesome. And, yes, strange.


  6. - Shytown - Monday, Sep 10, 18 @ 3:35 pm:

    Just lots of noise frankly, but the polls show that this is wide open.


  7. - scoot - Monday, Sep 10, 18 @ 4:09 pm:

    I haven’t seen but, has Arne Duncan commented on entering the race yet?


  8. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Sep 10, 18 @ 4:27 pm:

    Rahm has proven why term limits are so necessary.

    He made tough choices to close schools in neighborhoods that have lost population.

    Chicago has lost 150,000 residents in the past 10 years but powerful government unions cry foul whenever spending is cut, even if it involves underutilized schools.

    “In a 2017 analysis, Local Government Information Services analyzed CPS’ published school occupancy data and found that CPS could save almost $200 million per year by closing more than 100 schools that are mostly empty. 304 of the 566 buildings CPS operates are “underutilized,” or at least 20 percent empty. Of the underutilized schools, 116 are more than 50 percent empty; 77 of those are more than 70 percent empty.”

    Two terms were enough for him. He realigned the pension payments, attracted attracted scores of corporate headquarters, overseen a boom in downtown construction, laid the groundwork for a major expansion of O’Hare International Airport, bolstered the downtown riverwalk and managed to stabilize — although not fully fix — the city’s shaky finances.

    JB is not equipped to make the tough choices necessary to fix Illinois.

    He is a yes man to Democratic special interests that demand more government spending..


  9. - NorthsideNoMore - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 8:04 am:

    Crime is a huge issue in the city get someone in that will actually solve some of the bigger problems…Rahm did not confront the issue at its root and became defined by it. Taxes and spending are always in the mix, but the reputation of Chicago is the criminal activity, the City deserves better.


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