50 Comments - Snapper - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:24 pm: Yeah, unless Rauner has a bombshell on Pritzker, I think I’d call it a day and save my money. Even with a bombshell, I don’t know if he’d make up the difference. People may point to Trump winning down in the polls, but Rauner is no Trump. - wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:31 pm: -24 percent I guess that explains all the mea culpa, I’ve-learned-my-lesson stuff today. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:35 pm: I think these leads are outside the margin of error… Rauner is unlikable… Rauner is a failure. That’s 27%… for an incumbent governor. Wow - wondering - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:03 pm: This comes under the heading, “All of the people all of the time”…bye bye Brucey - DarkHorse - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:10 pm: As I view J.B. and Raoul as near certain winners, I’m curious about the Rauner-Harold spread — 6 points. If Harold can widen that to 10, she should feel great about her effort. - TominChicago - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:12 pm: Snapper - Trump was never down by double digits. - wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:20 pm: –People may point to Trump winning down in the polls, but Rauner is no Trump.– The popular vote spread in the polls and the actual vote were within one percentage point. I’m pretty sure there ain’t an electoral college among the 102 counties. https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html - Pundent - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:24 pm: Sounds like Rauner is going to need a lot more incremental improvement between now and November. - Cyprian - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:33 pm: DarkHorse,Pritzker and Raoul’s numbers are nearly identical. Sam McCann is polling at 6.4% in the governor’s race. That probably explains much of the difference between Rauner and Harold. With this, it appears McCann is drawing very little from the union vote, but is drawing heavily from conservative GOP voters. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:35 pm: 24%? Oof. That’s deep yogurt. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:35 pm: McCann at 6.4%… Rauner has to be wondering how different these numbers would be… McCann over 5%… Rauner can’t find a constituency… - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:37 pm: As I told a good friend today: the jury has made up its mind. The. verdict is not gonna go Rauner’s way. The question now is how harsh the sentence will be. That’s what was bizarre about today’s speech: we are in the sentencing phase of the Trial of Bruce Rauner. JB Pritzker is arguing to lock him up and throw away the key. And Rauner - much like Rod Blagojevich - is refusing to offer a genuine apology. Never says he is sorry or specifically did anything wrong. Instead he argues everyone is to blame. He is actually making himself less likeable. Nonapologies are infuriating. - BlueDogDem - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:38 pm: 9%. Just be smoking something. - Hamlets Ghost - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:50 pm: McCann over 5% gives Dan Proft an entirely new party, with ballot access, to play with in 2020. Go long, on popcorn. - wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:55 pm: –McCann over 5% gives Dan Proft an entirely new party, with ballot access, to play with in 2020.– Presuming he keeps Sugar Daddy Dick happy. He’s the money, Proft is the help. - Rabid - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:59 pm: Gop candidates will regret their picture with Rauner - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:20 pm: I somehow don’t feel at ease with such a lopsided result. It seems unreal, but then again Trump lost by a lot in Illinois. But it is what it is. If the true lead really is 9-10 points, then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:22 pm: ===then again Trump lost by a lot in Illinois=== 17 points. Notice any similarities? Oof - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:26 pm: ===Notice any similarities?=== Performing to Clinton/Duckworth spreads, outpacing Mendoza… A good place to be in the polling. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:34 pm: Would love to see the breakdown by party, including independents. - #1 Anon - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:54 pm: Rauner can hope (1) history of 3rd party candidates fading on election day holds true for McCann and Libertarian and (2) he picks up those votes. That still leaves Rauner down, but in single digits. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:31 pm: ===then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him.=== With respect, You can run a perfect campaign… and lose. That is true. This is also true… … you can run mediocre aspects and fundamental miscues in a campaign… and win. The result isn’t always an indicator of the game played. Such is life, as it is in campaigns. With respect. - Baloneymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:41 pm: Aug 1974 - 24% approval rating. who did it better? - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:41 pm: ===then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him.=== Further? Sure… You have an incumbent polling 26 points under water, under 30% in polling… … it’s like watching bad baseball, for me, bad politics…. you can have a team win 7-3, but commit 3 errors, mishandle a bull pen, and the score… never ferrets out more than a box score showing resounding victory. What really, really, *really* cool about this place Rich let’s us hang out in? It’s watching a 7-3 ball game, but seeing the missed signals and base runners thrown out. It’s seeing double plays turned because a table was set to turn two. It’s pitch sequences to strikeouts, and working counts to get hitters’ pitches… it’s home runs, it’s overmatched teams, it’s overcoming manager mistakes. That’s the point, it’s another way to see the game everyone is watching. That’s another really cool thing, among many, about this place. Respectfully, OW - Red Ranger - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:44 pm: But your still going to send us millions of dollars, right Governor? Signed, Jim Durkin, Bill Brady, Tim Schneider and Erika Harold - Question - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:46 pm: The “are u registered as a rep dem or Indy” question is odd - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:55 pm: OW I’m with you. I hate the mistakes too, because oppo against Rauner is bountiful. There’s so much bad that he’s done, and to not utilize it is malpractice. We can’t guarantee outcomes but it’s owed to supporters to campaign the right way. - Baloneymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:59 pm: I’m not great at math but all those added up plus undecideds still leaves 5.6%. am I missing something. or someone? - Steve - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:05 pm: JB really doesn’t have to campaign at all…. - The Captain - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:06 pm: At some point Rauner is going to reconcile himself to reality, that may have already happened, once it does it gets a lot less likely he keeps sending millions to other Republicans just so they can have a slightly less terrible night than him in November. Either we’ve already seen the last of the big money movements on the Republican side or we’re getting awfully close to it. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:10 pm: Most voters don’t know much about Raoul. I for one. Perhaps it is a party advantage, especially for that position. - DuPage Bard - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:13 pm: This is truly bad. 53 days out and the other side has a sizable money advantage. This polling is probably pretty close or we don’t have today’s bended knee speech from the Governor. If he were close or was up he’d be playing this much different. The key now for the Pritzker crew, to prove their worth, is to bury him. Keep excitement and motivation high among your voters, make sure everyone comes out to vote and then take away his voters will to even show up. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:34 pm: “… you can run mediocre aspects and fundamental miscues in a campaign… and win. The result isn’t always an indicator of the game played.” True. Or, maybe they’re smarter than you give them credit for even though they’re not doing it the way you would do it. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:44 pm: ===…maybe they’re smarter than you give them credit for even though they’re not doing it the way you would do it.=== It’s their race to run and win. They’re leading in the polls. Criticism is rarely a true or honest lone measure of how one may feel about anything. It’s not personal, it’s business. They can care less what I think. They are going about *their* business. As it should be. - PublicServant - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 6:35 am: Does the Accused have any last words before being sentenced? Meh, who cares. Let’s move on, wiser for having learned our lesson about teaching Pat Quinn a lesson. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Bruce. On second thought,.. - #1 Anon - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:00 am: Keep in mind this is also a registered voter poll, which typically skews 2-4 points towards Democrats. Also, poll had 45% Democrats responding, which seems high even if party affiliation is fluid. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:20 am: Given the consistency of poll results across June, August and September, how’d you like to be the poor campaign schmuck who has to tell Rauner when it’s time to write another multi-million-dollar check for the effort? - Saluki - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:22 am: An opportunity lost, all because Rauner thought his money would be enough to overcome politics. All he accomplished was the eroding of Mike Madigan’s reputation. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:42 am: –An opportunity lost, all because Rauner thought his money would be enough to overcome politics.– I wonder what that word salad is supposed to mean? An “opportunity” to “overcome politics” for what? Reward the hostage-taker by passing RTW and a prevailing wage repeal, something that a substantial majority of Illinois legislators –elected by the citizens — opposed? Rauner get just a touch over 50% of the vote against Pat Quinn. He didn’t have any popular mandate for such things. The GA, a co-equal branch of government, performed their checks-and-balances function, as envisioned by the Constitution. Rauner has to answer in November for the damage he caused in the zealous pursuit of his personal agenda to the detriment of his gubernatorial responsibilities. Hence the 30% approval rating, and the whiny “I’m sorry” speech. - The Dude Abides - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:55 am: When I heard the Governor’s apology speech yesterday I wondered if they had done some more recent internal polling that indicated that they hadn’t made much headway cutting into the Pritzker lead. Listening to the speech, which started out as an apology, evolved into Rauner patting himself on the back, mentioning compromise with Democrats then proceeding to tear down Democrats and blaming them for the last four years. I agree with an earlier post by Yellow Dog. His apology wasn’t sincere. It was an apology that really wasn’t one. I concur that a majority of voters have had their fill of this man and have made up their minds, they just want him gone. There are GOP leaning voters who remember the Rauner ad aligning Ives with Madigan. They know that was a lie and they now question the truthfulness in the most recent ads attacking Pritzker. That might explain why the recent ads about the graduated income tax and the mileage tax apparently aren’t moving the needle. His lies have caught up to him. - A Jack - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:14 am: For some of us, Mike Madigan’s reputation has improved because he stood up for workers against Rauner. Indeed, after four years of Bruce Rauner, I would like to shake Mike Madigan’s hand and tell him what a fine job he has done as Speaker. - SOIL M - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:31 am: One thing that worries me is that the Cubs are the best team in the National League, and should end up in the World Series. The last time the Cubs won the World Series Trump was elected President. Maybe the Cubs should take a dive to make sure something odd doesnt happen again this year. - Pick a Name - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:57 am: A Jack, where are you coming from. MJM has decimated this state, sky high real estate taxes, sky high sales taxes, obligations ranging from $150 billion to $250 billion, depending on who does the calculations. C’mon man - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:03 am: ===MJM has decimated this state=== … and yet, it’s Rauner himself admitting he’s a failure, trailing by 17 points, polling at 24% approval, and in that race, as the incumbent, polls a weak 27%… Madigan is running unopposed. - Pundent - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:19 am: =All he accomplished was the eroding of Mike Madigan’s reputation.= I’d say it’s a push on that front. Madigan wasn’t exactly popular when Rauner was elected. In fact Rauner was able to use the contempt AFSCME had for Quinn and Madigan to peel off enough votes to get himself elected. Now that they’ve seen the alternative Madigan might not look that bad in their eyes. If anything Rauner has set Republican efforts back years. He had an opportunity to change the course of this state and squandered it. And he did it in such a way that he left the party weakened and it will make it that much more challenging for the next Republican who runs for governor. - Pick a Name - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:35 am: Willy, has MJM decimated this state or not? That is what I posted, if you want to refute it, fine, but saying MJM is running unopposed is the ultimate strawman. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:42 am: lol, - Pick a Name -… you’re such a piece of work. Asked and answered, probably a dozen times. I refer you to McKinney, arguably the best one stop look at Illinois finances, and Rich, whose body of work captures the real time issues how “we got here”, and Daniel Vock, in “Governing” who recently looked at Illinois and the financial issues. See… I actually cited works where not only research happened, but all three see Madigan’s role… and Pate’s, Lee’s, Edgar’s… even Thompson’s…let alone Rod’s… Your distain… or actual works addressing how we ALL got here… Hmm. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:47 am: ===MJM is running unopposed is the ultimate strawman.== … but “ackurate”… ask Peraica and Gonzo about the running unopposed business, they deposed MJM for 5 hours. - Pick a Name - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 12:36 pm: Willy, it will be fascinating to see your gleeful posts once JB is in office. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 12:38 pm: ===it will be fascinating to see your gleeful posts once JB is in office.=== … like when Rod or Quinn were in office? You go with that. Why do you make it about me when you only look foolish doing so? Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.