Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » New poll: Pritzker up by 17, Raoul leads by 11
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
New poll: Pritzker up by 17, Raoul leads by 11

Thursday, Sep 13, 2018

* ABC 7

Democratic candidate for Illinois governor JB Pritzker and Democratic candidate for Illinois attorney general Kwame Raoul lead their opponents by a wide margin in a new poll released late Thursday by the Illinois Broadcasters Association.

Asking 1,024 respondents who they’d choose for governor if the election were held today, the IBA poll showed Pritzker leading Republican governor Bruce Rauner 44 percent to 27.1 percent. Conservative Party candidate Sam McCann got 6.4 percent and Libertarian Party candidate Kash Jackson got 4.3 percent, and 12.6 percent said they didn’t know or hadn’t decided.

In the attorney general race, 43.4 percent of respondents said they’d vote for Raoul if the election were held today, while 31.7 percent said they’d vote for Republican candidate Erika Harold, and 20 percent said they didn’t know or hadn’t decided. […]

The poll found 23.9 percent of respondents had an overall favorable view of Rauner and 52.4 percent had an overall unfavorable view of him. Only 3.1 percent of respondents had never heard of the governor, and 3.8 percent said they had no opinion.

24 percent favorable. Whew. The report implies these were registered voters, however. Those results tend to skew more toward the Dems.

More here at NBC 5.

…Adding… Yep…



…Adding… Complete results are here.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

50 Comments
  1. - Snapper - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:24 pm:

    Yeah, unless Rauner has a bombshell on Pritzker, I think I’d call it a day and save my money. Even with a bombshell, I don’t know if he’d make up the difference. People may point to Trump winning down in the polls, but Rauner is no Trump.


  2. - wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:31 pm:

    -24 percent

    I guess that explains all the mea culpa, I’ve-learned-my-lesson stuff today.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 6:35 pm:

    I think these leads are outside the margin of error…

    Rauner is unlikable… Rauner is a failure.

    That’s 27%… for an incumbent governor.

    Wow


  4. - wondering - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:03 pm:

    This comes under the heading, “All of the people all of the time”…bye bye Brucey


  5. - DarkHorse - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:10 pm:

    As I view J.B. and Raoul as near certain winners, I’m curious about the Rauner-Harold spread — 6 points. If Harold can widen that to 10, she should feel great about her effort.


  6. - TominChicago - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:12 pm:

    Snapper - Trump was never down by double digits.


  7. - wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:20 pm:

    –People may point to Trump winning down in the polls, but Rauner is no Trump.–

    The popular vote spread in the polls and the actual vote were within one percentage point.

    I’m pretty sure there ain’t an electoral college among the 102 counties.

    https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html


  8. - Pundent - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:24 pm:

    Sounds like Rauner is going to need a lot more incremental improvement between now and November.


  9. - Cyprian - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:33 pm:

    DarkHorse,Pritzker and Raoul’s numbers are nearly identical. Sam McCann is polling at 6.4% in the governor’s race. That probably explains much of the difference between Rauner and Harold. With this, it appears McCann is drawing very little from the union vote, but is drawing heavily from conservative GOP voters.


  10. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:35 pm:

    24%? Oof. That’s deep yogurt.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:35 pm:

    McCann at 6.4%… Rauner has to be wondering how different these numbers would be…

    McCann over 5%… Rauner can’t find a constituency…


  12. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:37 pm:

    As I told a good friend today: the jury has made up its mind.

    The. verdict is not gonna go Rauner’s way.

    The question now is how harsh the sentence will be.

    That’s what was bizarre about today’s speech: we are in the sentencing phase of the Trial of Bruce Rauner. JB Pritzker is arguing to lock him up and throw away the key. And Rauner - much like Rod Blagojevich - is refusing to offer a genuine apology. Never says he is sorry or specifically did anything wrong. Instead he argues everyone is to blame.

    He is actually making himself less likeable. Nonapologies are infuriating.


  13. - BlueDogDem - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:38 pm:

    9%. Just be smoking something.


  14. - Hamlets Ghost - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:50 pm:

    McCann over 5% gives Dan Proft an entirely new party, with ballot access, to play with in 2020.

    Go long, on popcorn.


  15. - wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:55 pm:

    –McCann over 5% gives Dan Proft an entirely new party, with ballot access, to play with in 2020.–

    Presuming he keeps Sugar Daddy Dick happy. He’s the money, Proft is the help.


  16. - Rabid - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 7:59 pm:

    Gop candidates will regret their picture with Rauner


  17. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:20 pm:

    I somehow don’t feel at ease with such a lopsided result. It seems unreal, but then again Trump lost by a lot in Illinois. But it is what it is.

    If the true lead really is 9-10 points, then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him.


  18. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:22 pm:

    ===then again Trump lost by a lot in Illinois===

    17 points. Notice any similarities? Oof


  19. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:26 pm:

    ===Notice any similarities?===

    Performing to Clinton/Duckworth spreads, outpacing Mendoza…

    A good place to be in the polling.


  20. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:34 pm:

    Would love to see the breakdown by party, including independents.


  21. - #1 Anon - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 8:54 pm:

    Rauner can hope (1) history of 3rd party candidates fading on election day holds true for McCann and Libertarian and (2) he picks up those votes. That still leaves Rauner down, but in single digits.


  22. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:31 pm:

    ===then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him.===

    With respect,

    You can run a perfect campaign… and lose.

    That is true. This is also true…

    … you can run mediocre aspects and fundamental miscues in a campaign… and win.

    The result isn’t always an indicator of the game played.

    Such is life, as it is in campaigns.

    With respect.


  23. - Baloneymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:41 pm:

    Aug 1974 - 24% approval rating.

    who did it better?


  24. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:41 pm:

    ===then all the head-slapping and frustration by some of us over Pritzker not campaigning the right way is for naught. If Pritzker is that far ahead, nothing he’s done has really hurt him.===

    Further? Sure…

    You have an incumbent polling 26 points under water, under 30% in polling…

    … it’s like watching bad baseball, for me, bad politics…. you can have a team win 7-3, but commit 3 errors, mishandle a bull pen, and the score… never ferrets out more than a box score showing resounding victory.

    What really, really, *really* cool about this place Rich let’s us hang out in? It’s watching a 7-3 ball game, but seeing the missed signals and base runners thrown out. It’s seeing double plays turned because a table was set to turn two. It’s pitch sequences to strikeouts, and working counts to get hitters’ pitches… it’s home runs, it’s overmatched teams, it’s overcoming manager mistakes.

    That’s the point, it’s another way to see the game everyone is watching. That’s another really cool thing, among many, about this place.

    Respectfully,

    OW


  25. - Red Ranger - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:44 pm:

    But your still going to send us millions of dollars, right Governor?

    Signed,
    Jim Durkin, Bill Brady, Tim Schneider and Erika Harold


  26. - Question - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:46 pm:

    The “are u registered as a rep dem or Indy” question is odd


  27. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:55 pm:

    OW I’m with you. I hate the mistakes too, because oppo against Rauner is bountiful. There’s so much bad that he’s done, and to not utilize it is malpractice. We can’t guarantee outcomes but it’s owed to supporters to campaign the right way.


  28. - Baloneymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 9:59 pm:

    I’m not great at math but all those added up plus undecideds still leaves 5.6%. am I missing something. or someone?


  29. - Steve - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:05 pm:

    JB really doesn’t have to campaign at all….


  30. - The Captain - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:06 pm:

    At some point Rauner is going to reconcile himself to reality, that may have already happened, once it does it gets a lot less likely he keeps sending millions to other Republicans just so they can have a slightly less terrible night than him in November. Either we’ve already seen the last of the big money movements on the Republican side or we’re getting awfully close to it.


  31. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:10 pm:

    Most voters don’t know much about Raoul. I for one. Perhaps it is a party advantage, especially for that position.


  32. - DuPage Bard - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:13 pm:

    This is truly bad.
    53 days out and the other side has a sizable money advantage.
    This polling is probably pretty close or we don’t have today’s bended knee speech from the Governor. If he were close or was up he’d be playing this much different.
    The key now for the Pritzker crew, to prove their worth, is to bury him.
    Keep excitement and motivation high among your voters, make sure everyone comes out to vote and then take away his voters will to even show up.


  33. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:34 pm:

    “… you can run mediocre aspects and fundamental miscues in a campaign… and win.

    The result isn’t always an indicator of the game played.”

    True. Or, maybe they’re smarter than you give them credit for even though they’re not doing it the way you would do it.


  34. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 13, 18 @ 10:44 pm:

    ===…maybe they’re smarter than you give them credit for even though they’re not doing it the way you would do it.===

    It’s their race to run and win.

    They’re leading in the polls.

    Criticism is rarely a true or honest lone measure of how one may feel about anything.

    It’s not personal, it’s business.

    They can care less what I think.

    They are going about *their* business. As it should be.


  35. - PublicServant - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 6:35 am:

    Does the Accused have any last words before being sentenced?

    Meh, who cares. Let’s move on, wiser for having learned our lesson about teaching Pat Quinn a lesson.

    Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Bruce. On second thought,..


  36. - #1 Anon - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:00 am:

    Keep in mind this is also a registered voter poll, which typically skews 2-4 points towards Democrats. Also, poll had 45% Democrats responding, which seems high even if party affiliation is fluid.


  37. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:20 am:

    Given the consistency of poll results across June, August and September, how’d you like to be the poor campaign schmuck who has to tell Rauner when it’s time to write another multi-million-dollar check for the effort?


  38. - Saluki - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:22 am:

    An opportunity lost, all because Rauner thought his money would be enough to overcome politics. All he accomplished was the eroding of Mike Madigan’s reputation.


  39. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:42 am:

    –An opportunity lost, all because Rauner thought his money would be enough to overcome politics.–

    I wonder what that word salad is supposed to mean?
    An “opportunity” to “overcome politics” for what?

    Reward the hostage-taker by passing RTW and a prevailing wage repeal, something that a substantial majority of Illinois legislators –elected by the citizens — opposed?

    Rauner get just a touch over 50% of the vote against Pat Quinn. He didn’t have any popular mandate for such things. The GA, a co-equal branch of government, performed their checks-and-balances function, as envisioned by the Constitution.

    Rauner has to answer in November for the damage he caused in the zealous pursuit of his personal agenda to the detriment of his gubernatorial responsibilities.

    Hence the 30% approval rating, and the whiny “I’m sorry” speech.


  40. - The Dude Abides - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 8:55 am:

    When I heard the Governor’s apology speech yesterday I wondered if they had done some more recent internal polling that indicated that they hadn’t made much headway cutting into the Pritzker lead.
    Listening to the speech, which started out as an apology, evolved into Rauner patting himself on the back, mentioning compromise with Democrats then proceeding to tear down Democrats and blaming them for the last four years.
    I agree with an earlier post by Yellow Dog. His apology wasn’t sincere. It was an apology that really wasn’t one. I concur that a majority of voters have had their fill of this man and have made up their minds, they just want him gone. There are GOP leaning voters who remember the Rauner ad aligning Ives with Madigan. They know that was a lie and they now question the truthfulness in the most recent ads attacking Pritzker. That might explain why the recent ads about the graduated income tax and the mileage tax apparently aren’t moving the needle. His lies have caught up to him.


  41. - A Jack - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:14 am:

    For some of us, Mike Madigan’s reputation has improved because he stood up for workers against Rauner.

    Indeed, after four years of Bruce Rauner, I would like to shake Mike Madigan’s hand and tell him what a fine job he has done as Speaker.


  42. - SOIL M - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:31 am:

    One thing that worries me is that the Cubs are the best team in the National League, and should end up in the World Series.
    The last time the Cubs won the World Series Trump was elected President.
    Maybe the Cubs should take a dive to make sure something odd doesnt happen again this year.


  43. - Pick a Name - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 9:57 am:

    A Jack, where are you coming from. MJM has decimated this state, sky high real estate taxes, sky high sales taxes, obligations ranging from $150 billion to $250 billion, depending on who does the calculations.

    C’mon man


  44. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:03 am:

    ===MJM has decimated this state===

    … and yet, it’s Rauner himself admitting he’s a failure, trailing by 17 points, polling at 24% approval, and in that race, as the incumbent, polls a weak 27%…

    Madigan is running unopposed.


  45. - Pundent - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:19 am:

    =All he accomplished was the eroding of Mike Madigan’s reputation.=

    I’d say it’s a push on that front. Madigan wasn’t exactly popular when Rauner was elected. In fact Rauner was able to use the contempt AFSCME had for Quinn and Madigan to peel off enough votes to get himself elected. Now that they’ve seen the alternative Madigan might not look that bad in their eyes.

    If anything Rauner has set Republican efforts back years. He had an opportunity to change the course of this state and squandered it. And he did it in such a way that he left the party weakened and it will make it that much more challenging for the next Republican who runs for governor.


  46. - Pick a Name - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:35 am:

    Willy, has MJM decimated this state or not? That is what I posted, if you want to refute it, fine, but saying MJM is running unopposed is the ultimate strawman.


  47. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:42 am:

    lol, - Pick a Name -… you’re such a piece of work.

    Asked and answered, probably a dozen times.

    I refer you to McKinney, arguably the best one stop look at Illinois finances, and Rich, whose body of work captures the real time issues how “we got here”, and Daniel Vock, in “Governing” who recently looked at Illinois and the financial issues.

    See… I actually cited works where not only research happened, but all three see Madigan’s role… and Pate’s, Lee’s, Edgar’s… even Thompson’s…let alone Rod’s…

    Your distain… or actual works addressing how we ALL got here…

    Hmm.


  48. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 10:47 am:

    ===MJM is running unopposed is the ultimate strawman.==

    … but “ackurate”… ask Peraica and Gonzo about the running unopposed business, they deposed MJM for 5 hours.


  49. - Pick a Name - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 12:36 pm:

    Willy, it will be fascinating to see your gleeful posts once JB is in office.


  50. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 14, 18 @ 12:38 pm:

    ===it will be fascinating to see your gleeful posts once JB is in office.===

    … like when Rod or Quinn were in office?

    You go with that.

    Why do you make it about me when you only look foolish doing so?


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Moms on an independent mission
* Car-sharing showdown
* Veto session preview
* Incoming House Democrat calls for "No" votes on Madigan
* A few minutes with JB Pritzker
* Rauner, Pritzker to make "unity" appearance at scaled-down bicentennial event
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Counting all the ballots takes time, and for good reason
* County Democratic Chairs organization elects suburban woman as new president
* Sen. Nybo concedes to Glowiak
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller