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Congressional updates: Underwood raises $2+ million; Casten up by 5; Londrigan down by 1

Tuesday, Oct 9, 2018

* Press release…

With 28 days until Election Day, Lauren Underwood, Democratic candidate for Congress in Illinois’ 14th District, announced today that her campaign raised more than two million dollars during the final FEC filing quarter before the Nov. 6 General Election.

Underwood’s announcement comes on the heels of two key editorial board endorsements of her campaign, from the Chicago Sun-Times and the Daily Herald.

“We have the momentum in this race. The excitement about our campaign is palpable — our voters began heading to their polling places as soon as early voting began,” Underwood said. “I’m so thankful to the thousands of people across our community who have invested in this race. It’s clear that voters in the 14th are ready for real representation in Congress and we have have the resources we need to win in November”

Underwood outraised her incumbent Republican opponent, Randy Hultgren, during the previous two consecutive FEC filing quarters. Underwood will post her full FEC filing Oct. 15.

* Polling memo from Sean Casten’s campaign

Our latest poll shows Sean Casten expanding his lead over Peter Roskam to five points (49% Casten, 44% Roskam), up from a three-point lead in early September. Roskam’s job approval and personal ratings remain in negative territory, and his electoral support has been mired in the mid-40s since our first poll in April. Meanwhile, Sean Casten is becoming better known and better liked with each passing day. Voters clearly have soured on Peter Roskam , and their attitudes are calcifying quickly. Millions of d ollars spent trying to rebrand Roskam has done nothing to change voters’ negative impressions of him. And efforts to tarnish Sean Casten with lies and distortions about his business record have failed , despite Roskam and outside groups sinking millions more on these attempts . Congressman Roskam’s continued support for President Trump’s divisive and unpopular agenda is proving disqualifying among the thoughtful, moderate voters in this district .

More here.

* WCIA TV

A new internal poll shows Democrat Betsy Dirksen-Londrigan within one percentage point of three-term incumbent Republican Congressman Rodney Davis.

Londrigan trails Davis 49 to 48 percent, according to the new poll which was conducted between October 1st and 4th. The one-point margin is well within the margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Democratic firm GBA strategies says their survey, which polled 500 likely voters, shows the race for Illinois’ 13th Congressional District is one of the closest in the country. The same polling firm found Londrigan trailed Davis by a five point margin, 51 to 46, last month.​​​​​​​

Polling memo is here.

* New ad from Brendan Kelly….

* Press release…

Following the weekend confirmation vote of Brett Kavanaugh, NARAL Pro-Choice America today announced a new $1 million ad campaign to hold the Republican Party accountable and urge voters to “vote them out.”

The ads start with pictures of Brett Kavanaugh, Donald Trump and the protests that took over Washington during the last month, and state that the Republican Party is advancing an agenda that “harms and silences” women and that it is time to “vote them out.”

The ad campaign, which will include TV, digital ads and mail, will target Representatives Young (IA-3), Roskam (IL-6), Yoder (KS-3), Tenney (NY-22), Culberson (TX-7), Lewis (MN-2) and Brat (VA-7).

The Roskam TV ad is here.

* Roskam press release…

Respectful disagreement and civility have been noticeably absent during this election cycle, and the rampant theft of political yard signs in the Sixth District is just one more example. Day after day, Roskam supporters are calling into the local campaign office reporting signs stolen from their yards and personal property—and one such attempt was caught on camera as a Sean Casten supporter hovered over a sign around 2 a.m. in a yard that has already reported several yard sign thefts. Peter Roskam is calling on Casten to end the dirty campaign tactics and denounce this illicit behavior by his supporters.

This past week, at a Roskam supporter’s home in Wheaton, a young man in a hoody was spotted in her front yard with both hands on the Roskam for Congress yard sign. When called out to, the young man jumped and claimed he was “just looking at the sign” and proceeded to try to ask her questions about her support for Roskam. The home has been a target of sign theft three times to date.

Over 250 Roskam for Congress yard signs have been stolen since their distribution starting on Labor Day, September 3—with over 100 of that number occurring in the past week.

The video is here.

* Related…

* Civil Rights leader to hold rally with Brendan Kelly: Democratic U.S. Rep. John Lewis is set to appear at a Get Out the Vote rally in East St. Louis with Kelly, who is seeking to unseat U.S. Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro.

* Democrat’s poll shows Casten ahead of Roskam by 5 points

* Sun-Times endorses these 12 congressional candidates – and here’s why

* Daily Herald Endorsement: Roskam for Congress in 6th District

* Tribune: For the US House: Roskam, Tillman, Kelly, Lipinski and Garcia

* Roskam, GOP mostly quiet on Kavanaugh vote, but local Dems outspoken

- Posted by Rich Miller        

33 Comments
  1. - TaylorvilleTornado - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:07 am:

    I hope Londrigan’s performance in this election wakes the Dems up to the fact that they can win the IL13.


  2. - ItsMillerTime - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:08 am:

    Nothing says “I think I’m going to lose” then complaining about yard signs being stolen. boo hoo Roskam, it happens to every campaign.


  3. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:12 am:

    –Respectful disagreement and civility have been noticeably absent during this election cycle,…–

    I blame Adams and Jefferson. They set the tone.

    Perhaps all should follow the example of the national leader of the GOP.


  4. - Midstate Indy - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:18 am:

    TaylorvilleTornado,

    also being close to the boundaries of the 13th, I’ve been getting absolutely hammered with PAC media against Londrigan. A sizeable part of me has to think that this is as effective at continuing to raise her name ID as it is to work against her - just curious if you’re getting any media over your way, or what you think about Paul Ryan’s involvement with Confressional Leadership Fund commercials in so far as hurting/helping Londrigan.


  5. - Frank talks - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:26 am:

    A DuPage Republican complaining about sign theft? Too funny.
    The Dems have always had limited resources and have been bullied in the great sign wars of the suburbs. They usually don’t have a lot of money to put sings up and they always seem to have signs “lost”.

    They complain and the GOP says, that it doesn’t happen -they’re just looking for sympathy, it’s a set up, they’re doing it themselves for publicity etc. But they were so above reproach and it was never them.

    Now this crybaby tactic by Roskam. Grow a spine dude, you’ve been in office 20+ years. Is this your first rodeo in DuPage? The first you’ve been on the receiving end?

    I guess bullies don’t like get whacked in the mouth.


  6. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:34 am:

    ==- TaylorvilleTornado - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:07 am:==

    Dems drew it to win it, almost won it in 2012.


  7. - Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:37 am:

    Within the MOE 28 days out ain’t where you want to be if you’re a republican incumbent congressman during this cycle. No GOP Senator to take out frustration on so they’re sitting ducks as a proxy.


  8. - Gruntled University Employee - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:38 am:

    Sean Casten was on the morning briefing on Sirus/XM’s POTUS channel yesterday morning. His best line of the interview was “Hell hath no fury like 150 million women scorned.


  9. - LXB - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:40 am:

    In that WCIA poll, 3% undecided seems really low, even more so in the previous poll.


  10. - Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:44 am:

    Roskam has done little to provide a reason to vote for him. He just gives reasons to vote against Casten. I know yard signs don’t vote, but Casten signs are everywhere, Roskam not so much.


  11. - Pick a Name - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 10:48 am:

    Davis by 4-5. The R’s are really engaged after the Kavanaugh debacle.


  12. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 11:00 am:

    ==almost won it in 2012==

    With a pretty bad candidate, too.

    That being said, Davis really fits a lot of his district well.

    ==The R’s are really engaged after the Kavanaugh debacle.==

    So are the Ds.


  13. - Northsider - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 11:04 am:

    “…a young man in a hoody was spotted in her front yard…”

    BARK BARK BARK BARK!


  14. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 11:09 am:

    –The R’s are really engaged after the Kavanaugh debacle.–

    Wow, you’re really good at repeating what you heard hundreds of times on the cable TV box. Brings so much to the discussion.


  15. - Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 11:09 am:

    ==The R’s are really engaged after the Kavanaugh debacle.==

    But they got their justice and the Kavanaugh debacle will fade for them as a result - 28 days is an eternity. Politically speaking, if they wanted that base truly fired up, they would’ve pulled Kavanaugh and used it as a sledge in the last four weeks…and then still could’ve gotten their justice in December. It’s not like McConnell has values and would hold it. He’s already said the senate will consider any appointment that occurs in 2020, unlike in ‘16 with Merrick Garland.


  16. - Nick Name - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 11:26 am:

    ===The R’s are really engaged after the Kavanaugh debacle.===

    That’s nice. In the meantime, Trump’s support among Republican women has dropped by 19 points. Enjoy.

    https://tinyurl.com/y82rvgz5


  17. - Texas Red - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 11:53 am:

    From Roll Call 2011. Things sure have changed…

    6th district Incumbent: Peter Roskam (R)
    3rd term (64 percent) Rating: Likely Republican

    Roskam is one of the few Illinois Republicans who got lucky with the Democrats’ new map — he’s the only Member living in this GOP-leaning district west of Chicago.

    On the down side for Roskam, he has plenty of new territory. Only 25 percent of his current district is in the redrawn 6th. But it’s mostly solid GOP territory. And Roskam is simply a terrific candidate. He’s quickly ascended the ranks of House leadership, boasts $1.7 million in the bank and is a strong campaigner. He won’t break a sweat winning a fourth term.

    https://www.rollcall.com/news/Race-Ratings-Illinois-Democrats-Map-Makes-GOP-Sweat-209254-1.html


  18. - Irish1 - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 11:59 am:

    =The R’s are really engaged after the Kavanaugh debacle=
    I am a 62 year old well educated white woman in Hultgren’s district. Guess who I am NOT voting for? Hultgren. It is safe to say that I will never vote Republican again after the despicable behavior displayed by Trump and the goons that support him.


  19. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 12:00 pm:

    ===The R’s are really engaged after the Kavanaugh debacle===

    For now at least, this bump you speak of looks to me like a classic, unsustainable dead cat bounce.


  20. - Almost the weekend - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 12:45 pm:

    My biggest concern for the future of this state is if Underwood and Carsten win, while Davis and Bost hold their seats. The political pandering and dog whistles will only grow louder.


  21. - IL-13 Upset - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 1:00 pm:

    I live in St. Louis suburbs of IL-13. I am calling the upset now. The Davis campaign is nowhere to be found. Betsy has signs everywhere, I get a mailer EVERYDAY, seems she is out working Davis. I would not be shocked to see Bost hold on and Davis lose.


  22. - Pick a Name - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 1:03 pm:

    We will see what happens(dead cats bounce pretty high, right?)

    Also, would have appreciated to see my response to Word.


  23. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 1:05 pm:

    Also, it’s ‘hoodie,’ and just because the alleged person was wearing one it doesn’t make the alleged person a hoodlum. Which I believe is what is being alleged here.


  24. - @misterjayem - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 1:16 pm:

    Stealing yard-signs is just about the least effective political action that one could engage in.

    – MrJM


  25. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 1:28 pm:

    “He won’t break a sweat winning a fourth term.”

    Gosh, it sure looks like he’s sweating…a lot. He’s never been down before reelection like this. It will be a tough race, but I expect Casten to pull it out in the end.


  26. - lollinois - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 1:34 pm:

    Davis has been absent in his district (save for photo-ops in front of verifiably friendly audiences) for two years. He is in serious trouble.


  27. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 1:41 pm:

    –…a young man in a hoody was spotted in her front yard–

    Well, we can rule out Trayvon.

    But I’d be fascinated to know what the Roskam campaign believes is significant about someone wearing a “hoody?”

    Don’t they go outside in the fall? Have they ever been to a pee-wee or high school football game? Every mommy and daddy wears a hoodie.


  28. - A guy - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 2:11 pm:

    ==Stealing yard-signs is just about the least effective political action that one could engage in.

    – MrJM==

    That’s very true. It’s GOTV for the people whose sign has been stolen.


  29. - TaylorvilleTornado - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 2:13 pm:

    -Midstate Indy-

    I don’t watch a ton of TV, so I haven’t gotten a taste for all the groups pouring resources into the district. The only time I run into ads for either is watching the local news.

    The interesting thing in this part of the district is the number of people with Davis and Manar signs side-by-side instead of Davis/McMillan.

    For the rest:

    The Dems have let weak candidates run in this district in every election since the redistricting. The fact that the Dem almost won in 2012 can be tied to it being a presidential election year and there being no incumbent.

    There is no way Davis should be winning by the margins he has in the last two elections with Decatur, Champaign, and part of the STL metro in his district.


  30. - Illinoisvoter - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 3:23 pm:

    Everyday when I walk the dog I pass a Rauner sign not 75 feet from the large collection in front of Jeannie Ives house. Just thinking about moving it makes me feel wrong.


  31. - low level - Tuesday, Oct 9, 18 @ 8:19 pm:

    Seriously LOL at these comments about poor career politician Roskam. Awesome

    Guess he misses Du Page Boss Pate?

    Or not. Pate wasn’t keen on guys in hoodies as Pete alludes to here…


  32. - truthteller - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 6:21 am:

    Every democratic candidate should ask their republican rival how much money from russia is coming into the GOP super Pacs, until we have have full disclosure of all donors for all contributions we have to assume dark money is in fact coming from dark places like russia. BTW, davis not releasing any internal polls for a reason, and thats probably because it shows he is DOWN to Londrigan


  33. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 6:35 am:

    truthteller, step outside, I’m sure there are black helicopters hovering over your house.


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