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Cook moves Roskam to “Lean D,” moves Hultgren to “Toss Up”

Friday, Oct 12, 2018

* Cook Political Report

It’s not saying much, but House Republicans have seen more bright spots in the past week of polling since the Kavanaugh confirmation fight than they saw in over a month. Both sides agree Democrats’ enthusiasm advantage has narrowed, and Republicans are benefiting from their base “waking up” in red districts. However, there’s little evidence of movement in blue and swing districts.

Republicans suddenly feel more confident about several incumbents who have previously been tied or behind but have the luxury of sitting in Trump-won districts: Reps. Mike Bost (IL-12), John Faso (NY-19), Claudia Tenney (NY-22) and Steve Chabot (OH-01). They’re also newly optimistic about Toss Up open seats in Trump country, like Kansas’s 2nd CD and North Carolina’s 9th CD.

However, it shouldn’t come as a shock that the highly charged Supreme Court fracas has barely moved the needle in high-income, Clinton-won suburbs. Republicans are especially concerned about Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Peter Roskam (IL-06), who now appear to be narrowly behind. In fact, there’s evidence the map was beginning to polarize before the Kavanaugh fight.

Republicans continue to face especially strong headwinds in states where gubernatorial races aren’t going well for them. Illinois, where GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner trails by more than 15 points is a particular concern as Roskam and Rep. Randy Hultgren (IL-14) face an onslaught of Democratic cash in the Chicago media market. […]

Rating Changes

    IL-06: Roskam - Toss Up to Lean D ←
    IL-14: Hultgren - Lean R to Toss Up ←

Yikes. If a traditional Republican like Randy Hultgren could conceivably lose to a young African-American woman who was previously unknown in an 86 percent white and 3 percent black district encompassing most of McHenry County, parts of DeKalb County, northern Lake, western Kendall, etc. then we may be in for one really weird election night, campers.

* Meanwhile…

U.S. Rep. Randy Hultgren, running for re-election in the 14th Congressional District, has released his third ad of this campaign season.

As a senior member of the Science Committee and Chair of the STEM Caucus, Randy Hultgren is focused on training the next generation of leaders in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math.

“I am working to make us a leader in STEM, by providing our kids with the building blocks for success and strengthening our economy with good and high paying jobs. That means encouraging innovation in our schools and businesses, and establishing scholarship initiatives so our kids are prepared to succeed.” Said Rep. Hultgren. “To keep us competitive in the future, we have to be working at it today.”

* The ad

…Adding… One of my best guys tells me this ad is only on cable and he only put $50K behind it. Apparently, Hultgren has only spent $187k since 9/11. Meanwhile, Underwood is pushing 250 points a week on broadcast.

…Adding… Underwood got the Daily Herald endorsement

Her knowledge of issues across the spectrum is impressive. Her stances on the issues are reasonable.

Hultgren a reliable red vote in a district that by all accounts is turning purple. He’s been a solid congressman, but not an exceptional one.

Underwood could be exceptional. We endorse her.

* Related…

* Underwood talks health care during McHenry County campaign stops - Democrat says people with pre-existing conditions must be protected: Underwood made three stops in McHenry County to talk with voters during forum sessions. She stopped at Huntley High School to speak with students, traveled across town to talk with seniors at the Huntley American Legion Post 673, and ended the night at a National Coming Out Day celebration at Mixin Mingle in Woodstock.

* Incumbent, challenger in Illinois’ 14th Congressional District stake out positions on health insurance: Underwood has said during numerous campaign events that her decision to run for office was motivated by a promise from Hultgren to support repealing the portion of the Affordable Care Act that protected health care coverage for people with pre-existing conditions, which she felt was broken when Hultgren voted for the American Health Care Act.

* Why one nurse is running for Congress

* Election 2018: A year for women in McHenry County?

* GOP-Held Illinois District Pounded with Outside Money as Election Nears: The independent spending arm of the environmentalist League of Conservation Voters political action group is dropping $291,000 to run negative advertisements against Roskam on digital platforms throughout the district. Naral Pro-Choice America, another national liberal organization, will shell out $148,000 over the coming weeks on digital advertising opposing the incumbent. The group is also mobilizing its supporters this weekend to canvass for Casten. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars supporting Casten, is pouring another $109,000 into the district against Roskam. … The independent expenditure arm of the Koch brothers-backed group Americans for Prosperity is injecting $55,700 into the district to support Roskam with advertising and canvassing. And the House GOP’s campaign committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, is adding a cool $1.5 million to its budget for the district over the next several weeks, Roskam told the Tribune.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

18 Comments »
  1. - Fav Human - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 11:37 am:

    I wonder how much those two are paying the price for Rauner’s depressing the base?


  2. - @misterjayem - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 11:38 am:

    Has Roskam’s contempt for his constituents finally bitten him in the seat?

    – MrJM


  3. - Chris P. Bacon - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 11:46 am:

    My prediction is all of the incumbent R congressmen will survive, despite the massive drag Rauner is on the entire ticket.

    All of those guys are so entrenched and they’ve mailed a lot of birthday, anniversary, and graduation cards over the years. Whether they’ve done anything to deserve another term is a different question.


  4. - Hamlet's Ghost - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 11:53 am:

    Yesterday, Casten’s campaign posted a photo of Sean Casten with Harris Fawell, a retired GOP US House member.

    The text says Casten was visiting the Fawell home to personally deliver a Casten yard sign.

    https://www.facebook.com/castenforcongress/photos/a.1949005155345504/2213230668922950/?type=3&theater


  5. - wordslinger - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 12:03 pm:

    For a lifelong politician, Hultgren is curiously in need of a warm-and-fuzzy intro/bio spot. Half his district doesn’t have a clue as to who he is.

    The one posted looks like a Devry spot. The message itself is fine, but not what he needs right now.


  6. - Grand Avenue - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 12:08 pm:

    Looks like Dems take House, GOP keeps Senate, Trump spends the next 2 years appointing judges & running for re-election while the House investigates him because no legislation’s getting passed.


  7. - Benniefly2 - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 12:16 pm:

    Heh… Hultgren is touting his bonafides as a senior member of a committee whose members recently have been doing things like suggesting that rockslides, not other things, are causing the ocean level to rise. I wonder if his STEM education support might come with a few caveats.


  8. - Dome Gnome - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 12:18 pm:

    I liked all portions of the Hultgren ad except for the parts featuring Randy.


  9. - BoSox - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 12:53 pm:

    Randy has his hands full. He has always been a lazy candidate and has never raised the cash needed. This one may bite him. This area once had Bill Foster as well, so it can flip.


  10. - Not a Billionaire - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 12:56 pm:

    NYT has a story on the Triage. The spin from republicans is we can limit loses to 20 if we are lucky. If they have to defend Hultgren they are not looking lucky at the moment.


  11. - Turner - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 1:29 pm:

    Somewhere in the heart of the 6th Congressional District Jeanne Ives sees another opportunity (in 2020) to paste Wheaton with her yard signs and spread the her good cheer.


  12. - Anonymous - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 1:41 pm:

    For what it’s worth, the 538 website’s “Classic” analysis still has the Roskam and Hultgren seats “leaning Republican,” with three point leads over the Democratic challenger and a 66% likelihood of the Republican winning.


  13. - NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 2:07 pm:

    Just very interesting that Illinois Democrats, the team that has run this state into a complete fiscal disaster, still manages to get people to drink their Kool-Aid. It’s bad enough that they win state elections but to send more of these people to Washington just confirms the sense that Illinois voters are really a sad bunch.


  14. - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 2:24 pm:

    Casten will win. So will Underwood and possibly all four of the contested races. If they do, the night will be catastrophic for the GOP as IL won’t be the only place that Rs lose close races.


  15. - Lester Holt’s Mustache - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 2:44 pm:

    ==Illinois voters are really a sad bunch.==

    Wow, someone’s very bitter today. Don’t worry bud, I’m sure you’ll find a nice job somewhere else after Rauner loses the election. Maybe you can move to a super successful state that only elects and hires republicans, like Mississippi or Alabama?


  16. - wordslinger - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 3:18 pm:

    –Yesterday, Casten’s campaign posted a photo of Sean –Casten with Harris Fawell, a retired GOP US House member.

    The text says Casten was visiting the Fawell home to personally deliver a Casten yard sign.–

    Interesting. How did Roskam get sideways with the old DuPage GOP aristocracy?


  17. - train111 - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 3:20 pm:

    Will this come to a triage momemnt? Say the RNCC cuts Roskam loose and goes all in to save Hultgren. Interesting scenario. Is it possible?


  18. - Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 12, 18 @ 3:33 pm:

    ===old DuPage GOP aristocracy===

    Harris got sideways with the GOP. He endorsed Obama 08 and took a Dem ballot last March.


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