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*** UPDATED x2 - Underwood responds *** Poll: Hultgren trailing by 6 into the home stretch

Monday, Nov 5, 2018

* The Siena College/New York Times poll of 428 likely voters has Democratic challenger Lauren Underwood leading incumbent Republican Congressman Randy Hultgren by 6 points, 49-43. MoE of +/-5 percent.

* Other stuff from the poll

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

    Approve 46%
    Disapprove 49%
    Don’t know 5%

Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?

    Repubs keep House 46%
    Dems take House 46%
    Don’t know 9%

Much more here.

*** UPDATE 1 *** He should’ve dropped this oppo at least a month ago and followed it up with TV ads. Instead, he let Dan Proft release the information and is holding an election eve press conference. Political malpractice on Hultgren’s part…



*** UPDATE 2 *** From Lauren Underwood…

“We have fewer than 24 hours before Election Day and I’m traveling across the seven counties of the 14th District, visiting with voters and my team’s dedicated volunteers. Randy Hultgren clearly saw polling numbers that made him nervous, so he is staging a last minute press conference to discredit my professional work. Our voters deserve better than desperate political stunts from a career politician. They deserve honesty and responsiveness from their representative in Congress; Randy Hultgren has failed on both counts.

“The facts are simple: I’m proud to be a licensed registered nurse in the state of Illinois and two other jurisdictions. I specialize in public health nursing. I have spent my career fighting for affordable, quality healthcare. Throughout my clinical training and decade of nursing experience, I have spent thousands of hours working with patients. I look forward to carrying the values of the 14th District with me to Washington to make real progress on issues like health care that are important to the families of this community.”

Visit https://www.underwoodforcongress.com/facts to learn the facts.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

62 Comments »
  1. - Wow - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:29 am:

    If this is true and holds 🌊


  2. - DearPermit - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:33 am:

    Shouldn’t that news on Underwood not being a licensed RN nurse have been picked up months ago, instead of now?


  3. - Arsenal - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:35 am:

    His sleeping as it became clear that suburbs* were in basic open rebellion from Trump, as the state’s senior U.S. Senator started singing his opponent’s praises right after the primary, is perhaps the state’s biggest example of political malpractice this year.


  4. - slow down - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:35 am:

    So the district is split on which party should take the house, but Hultgren is still trailing by 6 as the incumbent.


  5. - Dee Lay - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:37 am:

    Don’t show me polls; show me turnout.


  6. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:37 am:

    Here’s some perspective, as 2020 will bring a new Congressional map too.

    Let’s say Hultgren goes down, and if Hultgren is lost, then Roskam is probably lost too…

    In Cook, the Collars, all the way to Peoria… Adam Kinzinger will be the lone Republican in the US House.

    Wow.

    Hultgren’s possible loss puts into perspective of a geographical divide in Illinois where politics is also defined by geography.

    Madigan goes veto-proof? Cullerton stays veto-proof, the Dems sweep the statewides, Kinzinger is the lone Northeast Illinois Republican in the US House, the Senate has two Democrats…

    … Hultgren is the last wall of a GOP presence in the Cook/Collar traditional region.

    And I need not worry… Uihlein, Proft, and Ives will make a rebirth of an ILGOP competitive?

    Hultgren will be a lynch pin. Hultgren holding on might be the only shining moment for the state Raunerites.

    What happens November 7th?


  7. - Downstate - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:38 am:

    Less than 2% of the people contacted even took the poll. That’s pretty shocking.


  8. - AlfondoGonz - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:38 am:

    - DearPermit -

    Underwood is a licensed RN. She hasn’t practiced.

    Shouldn’t you know what you;re talking about before you post, instead of needing to be corrected after you do so?


  9. - Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:39 am:

    DearPermit: 1) That info was included in the oppo dump posted Friday; 2) Get your own blog.


  10. - Retired Educator - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:39 am:

    When you become complacent, these things happen. I think he woke up to late. Someone on this site said “always run like your 10 points behind” Hultgren obviously doesn’t read this blog.


  11. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:44 am:

    She’s licensed but hasn’t practiced as noted above. I wish her advertising had focused on her policy experience, rather than staging her in scrubs like she works in a medical office when she never has, though.


  12. - anon - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:46 am:

    This has little to do with Trump or national issues, and is purely on Hultgren. Not just that he hasn’t really campaigned this fall, but he hasn’t spent the past two years doing the local appearances that aid re-election.


  13. - Daniel Bris - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:49 am:

    Underwood has this lead without the outside help from Swing Left, Turnout PAC, Organizing For Action and the other outside groups spending in the 6th district, after many were willing to write her campaign off in the summer. Very impressive.


  14. - Anonymous - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:50 am:

    Rich I think Permit’s comment was more reflective of the lack of Hultgren campaign dumping it until a few days out and from Ives (huh?)- not a dig at you or the press. At least that is the way I took it


  15. - Concerned Observer - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:51 am:

    Downstate: I thought so too, at first blush. But I was clicking on some of the other polls in that NYT series and it didn’t seem out of the ordinary. Although I did note that they started polling on Halloween night - that probably hurt early response rates.


  16. - Norseman - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:59 am:

    That the GOP are whining about her not practicing and living in her parents home shows how they are so devoid of policies they can defend. Time for new leadership in the 14th.


  17. - Louis G Atsaves - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:01 am:

    Over 23,000 calls made and just 428 responded to this poll? Wow. Just wow.


  18. - 47th Ward - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:03 am:

    If Hultgren loses, will anyone even notice? He’s been a non-factor in the delegation and, as others have noted, ignored his constituents time after time while voting against their wishes. He’s been invisible and ineffective, a bad combination.

    OK, one person will miss him: Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who was probably counting on Hultgren’s vote for Republican leader. Now Scalise can round up all of the Trump enablers and we’ll finally have a united House GOP caucus (God help us).


  19. - Roman - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:06 am:

    Willy is right. If this poll is legit (emphasis on ‘if’) and Underwood wins by 6 points, the Republicans are looking at an unmitigated disaster. An African-American Democrat largely running on a liberal message winning an outer-ring suburban district?

    Madigan could hit 73 or 74 seats. Cullerton would reach 40 again. We’ll see.


  20. - Hysteria - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:07 am:

    Whoever runs the Hultgren campaign should be ashamed of him/herself for not looking into Underwood’s background. Yes, she has a nursing degree, but the ads show her meeting with patients (staged in a dentist’s office, according to report), which, apparently, she has never done. I can have a degree as a lawyer, but if I never practiced, I wouldn’t say I’m a lawyer. She has been portrayed as a nurse who decided to switch careers to fight the corrupt Republicans in Congress, when in reality she was never a nurse but rather someone who worked in politics in the Obama administration. It’s all a big lie that should have been discovered months ago.


  21. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:09 am:

    A person with a state issued RN license is a nurse. A nurse doesn’t have to work with patients to be a “real nurse”.
    I know some one who works as an administrative nurse and never sees patients.


  22. - Molly Maguire - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:10 am:

    Was out there with friends this weekend knocking doors. The turf is not typical Dem grounds at all, you are getting out in the country there. Good vibe. If she wins, it will be a Dem rout, 40+ House seats


  23. - John-on-the-spot - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:12 am:

    Casten is leading Roskam. Maybe Underwood is drawing more Republican women than Casten is. Underwood’s poll doesn’t seem to be an outlier.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il06-3.html


  24. - Practical Politics - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:21 am:

    Arguing about credentials is silly if there is some factual basis for a candidate referring to their education and degrees. Obama obtained a law degree and taught a Con Law class. He did not put in many hours as a lawyer or a faculty instructor, but that does not change the fact that he earned a law license and taught a class at U of C. Underwood has a nursing degree. Let’s stop counting bed pans emptied.


  25. - Not a Billionaire - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 11:43 am:

    All the trash calls have ruined phones for anything legit. Spam almost did it to email. What matters is not the small response BUT are the people who answer represenatative. I suspect they lean older.


  26. - Pick a Name - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:18 pm:

    In the Hultgren, Roskam, Davis and Bost races the prediction is:

    3-1 R’s


  27. - Anon316 - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:28 pm:

    If she’d said she had a nursing degree, that’d be one thing, but to portray herself as a practicing nurse, complete with stethoscope and all, is another. And it’s a lie intended to deceive voters.


  28. - Soccermom - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:43 pm:

    Oh come on. She’s a nurse. She went to school for many years to become a nurse. She’s a registered nurse. Yeah, the ad shows her wearing nurse clothes that she doesn’t normally wear, so people will understand she’s a nurse. Um, have you seen the outfits that Bruce Rauner wears in his ads? Unless he’s a really a member of the Village People, his media consultants were pushing the envelope as well…


  29. - Norseman - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:52 pm:

    Hultgren holding a press conference to play up the ignorant angle that Underwood is not a practicing nurse. It’s a pitiful attempt by Hultgren to save his seat. The 14th is not voting for a nurse to treat them, they’re voting for a leader to advocate for policies that benefit them.


  30. - Anon316 - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 12:54 pm:

    Soccermom - I completely agree that the outfits that Rauner wears are ridiculous. But I think some people are voting for Underwood based on her nurse turned politician platform, when instead she’s a political operative turned politician. It’s not really the same. And it’s not the same as Rauner trying, but failing, to identify with constituents. I know that when I saw her ads, I thought wow, this is cool that this nurse decided to run for office. Because I thought she was, you know, a nurse in an office who saw patients. But, she’s not. I asked my mom if she knew what Underwood did for a living. She said yes, she’s a nurse. My mom also is a nurse (used to see patients and now works in administration). I said, actually, she never practiced as a nurse, she worked in DC for Obama. My mom said, well then she’s not actually a nurse and the ads are misleading. I agree.


  31. - Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:01 pm:

    Someone said it before, but if Hultgren loses in a district that is perfectly split on partisan control of the House and where Trump is barely under water, that does not bode well for Republicans up and down the ballot in tons of places.


  32. - Amalia - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:14 pm:

    Dems could be in the drivers seat after the east coast and the midwest with the rate at which seats seem to be headed their way. waiting for Cali results…month long…could be icing on the cake.


  33. - Stan - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:30 pm:

    - I think he woke up to late - Who said he woke up?


  34. - @misterjayem - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:33 pm:

    “My mom said…”

    Well, in that case…

    – MrJM


  35. - Anon316 - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:41 pm:

    What I love about the comments on this site are that they just state opinions and are never needlessly mean or rude. MrJM, I’m talking to you. That’s just an unnecessary comment.


  36. - Chester - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:00 pm:

    Be ready for Hultgren to blame Trump. In reality, Hultgren has a reputation for being lazy. That reputation was substantiated by a number of recent polls. Despite being a career politician Hultgren is unknown to his constituents and he has few legislative accomplishments.


  37. - Maestro - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:58 pm:

    This is the media falling down. Shouldn’t they be checking these people’s backgrounds out, not at the behest of a candidate, but as part of their job. I wouldn’t believe either side until I checked it out for myself.


  38. - MT - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:58 pm:

    Politicians dressing up as working class people is, I guess, an acceptable form of black face.


  39. - Anonymous - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:04 pm:

    Too late.

    Think about the already cast early ballots.

    With the early voting mechanism, last “minute” drops need to be weeks and weeks ago.


  40. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:04 pm:

    Sorry,

    - Anonymous - was me.


  41. - Soccermom - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:06 pm:

    MrJM — it was an unnecessary comment because we all thought the same thing.

    And seriously, Anon316 — Here’s Lauren’s bio from her website.

    “Today, Lauren Underwood is a registered nurse, with hands-on experience in America’s healthcare industry. Lauren was appointed by President Obama to serve as a Senior Advisor at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). During her time in the administration, Lauren helped communities across the country prevent, prepare for, and respond to disasters, bioterror threats and public health emergencies. As a career public servant at HHS, Lauren helped implement the Affordable Care Act — broadening access for those on Medicare, improving healthcare quality and reforming private insurance.”

    If you’re saying that a 30-second spot doesn’t provide detail — well, not gonna argue there.

    But you can let your mom know that the University of Michigan’s bachelor of science in nursing program requires clinical as well as academic work. So yeah, Lauren has really done nurse things. Not, apparently, as a full-time nurse post graduation, but she can take your blood pressure.

    And if you stack that up next to her opponent’s appalling accusation that she was “sent” to the district and “put up” to run by Madigan (because, yeah, otherwise what would an African-American be doing in Naperville), this seems like a mild stretch rather than a disqualification.


  42. - Montrose - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:15 pm:

    I know a lot of lawyers that have their law degree, but never practiced law. That doesn’t make them less of a lawyer. I may not hire them to defend me in court, but I’m also not hiring Underwood to give me a flu shot.


  43. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:24 pm:

    Proft holding the presser for oppo that shoulda been out there before early votes started…

    … Hultgren’s compete malpractice since March in one image not worth much when who knows how many have early voted.

    Gross malpractice.


  44. - Tomorrrowtomorrow - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:31 pm:

    Lest we not forget, Lauren also has a Masters in Public Health from Johns Hopkins. She is a registered nurse in the state of Illinois. She is interested in medical policy. Whether or not she wears scrubs every day should not matter.

    Randy is now a career politician who let his own license to practice law expire in 2009. I care as much about that as I do Lauren not being a bedside nurse since she did clinical work in college. I care about what they want to do for the district, nothing more, nothing less.


  45. - Archpundit - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:40 pm:

    14 is one of two districts I lived in while I lived in Illinois. The other being the 15th at the time with Madigan/Ewing and was District I grew up in and spent by far the most time. All I have to say is

    Wow.


  46. - Northsider (the original) - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:41 pm:

    Hultgren going all Ives-ey the day before the vote?


  47. - Anon316 - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:42 pm:

    Whether she wears scrubs does matter because her ad was misleading. And for the thousands of people who don’t read bios but who do watch ads, what they see is someone who is wearing scrubs, with a stethoscope around her neck, seeing patients, in a doctor’s office. And she doesn’t do that. So it’s a lie. If she had just said she had a nursing degree, I don’t think anyone would care. But she’s holding herself out as a practicing nurse. Which she is not. So she’s lying to her constituents.


  48. - OneMan - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:56 pm:

    She has a BSN and an MSN, she spent plenty of time treating patients even if the only time she ever did so was part of her clinical experiences for her nursing programs. Between the two it is significant hours of work.

    Also with due respect to most people here with an MS degree (I have one in MIS), the level of effort required to get an MSN far exceeds what most people have to deal with to get an MS degree in other fields. Same holds true for the BSN compared to other BS degrees. Go look at some MSN level pharmacology books.

    Even if she didn’t practice much (or at all) outside of her degree programs, she has a perspective that is much needed just by having a nursing education.

    Don’t agree with her on everything to say the least, but to attack her as a nurse.

    Go —- off Proft.

    (Full disclosure, I worked in the school of nursing in college here in Illinois and my wife has a BSN and MSN and is the hardest working person I know.


  49. - JS Mill - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:04 pm:

    =Whether she wears scrubs does matter because her ad was misleading.=

    So Rauner is a cowboy? I mean let’s talk misleading…

    If you make your choice based on a candidates ad you get what you deserve.

    =Which she is not. So she’s lying to her constituents.=

    Oh, well that is different. Please.


  50. - Tomorrowtomorrow - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:14 pm:

    Randy likes to talk about how much he enjoys meeting with constituents. I consider that more of a blatant lie than Lauren wearing scrubs in an ad to quickly convey that she is a nurse. Because she is a nurse, even if she’s not what most of us would stereotypically think of when someone says they’re a nurse.


  51. - Healthcarevoter - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:19 pm:

    This is the first time I have commented here, although I semi-regularly follow this site. And to be up-front, I am a voter that does support Laura.

    So why did I decide to post now?

    This post absolutely makes my blood boil…

    You see, this election is personal to me and my family. I have a dear family member with a preexisting condition. So, having the threat of health insurance that does not or will not (at a realistic cost) cover preexisting conditions is quite frightening to me. And, as we all know, Hultgren fully supported Obamacare repeal that included eliminating protections for preexisting conditions.

    So, Forgive me if I do not care if Laura practiced nursing in clinical setting or not.
    Laura does not claim to be a nurse who has practiced for years in a clinical setting nor can anyone point to any such comment.

    From her web site:

    “Today, Lauren Underwood is a registered nurse, with hands-on experience in America’s healthcare industry. Lauren was appointed by President Obama to serve as a Senior Advisor at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). During her time in the administration, Lauren helped communities across the country prevent, prepare for, and respond to disasters, bioterror threats and public health emergencies. As a career public servant at HHS, Lauren helped implement the Affordable Care Act — broadening access for those on Medicare, improving healthcare quality and reforming private insurance.”

    Where does this say she practiced nursing with patients for 20+ years?

    Not all nurses are employed in hospitals or doctor offices just like not all doctors practice in a patient setting. Not all lawyers practice as trial attorneys. Many teachers are not classroom teachers, but administrators. And there are plenty of other examples in other professions.

    Additionally, she earned an RN and so she has the perfect right to use that title. Is there any consternation when a Republican doctor uses “Dr.” or is shown with a lab coat in a campaign ad even though he has not practiced in a clinical setting for years? No, I didn’t think so.

    And, do you not think when campaign ads are filmed, that suitable locations are not found with suitable back drops? Do you think Laura is under some special obligation to return to the exact spot where she treated patients?

    This whole article is a farce. It is exactly what turns people off about politics and exactly the reason Hultgren is (hopefully) going to be defeated tomorrow.

    And one final comment to the political “experts” who are reading this: Let this be a lesson to you. You try to take away our health care and you might be out of a job. No amount of trickery or dishonest campaign ads are going to stop the justice that will be dispensed to you by angry voters exercising our rights as Americans.


  52. - Deadbeat Conservative - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:33 pm:

    =No amount of trickery or dishonest campaign ads are going to stop the justice that will be dispensed to you by angry voters exercising our rights as Americans.=
    The evidence suggests otherwise, see Bush v Gore, Trump(Putin) vs the USA, and probably Kemp in Georgia.


  53. - Unblocked Name - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:41 pm:

    =No amount of trickery or dishonest campaign ads are going to stop the justice that will be dispensed to you by angry voters exercising our rights as Americans.=

    The evidence suggests otherwise, see Bush v Gore, Trump(Putin) vs the USA, and probably Kemp in Georgia.


  54. - Right Field - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:48 pm:

    == Over 23,000 calls made and just 428 responded to this poll? Wow. Just wow. ==

    Check out the poll on the 6th… over 53,000 calls made for 497 respondents. Regardless of the election outcome, the people have voted on their dislike of phone polls.


  55. - Theyallarelying - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:52 pm:

    Underwood starts off her ad by saying, “As a registered nurse treating patients, …” as she walks into what looks like a doctor’s office in scrubs and with a stethoscope around her neck. It is present tense, not past, so that implies that she is working as a nurse. Is that not a lie or misleading? They all lie in their ads, so it’s to be expected.


  56. - Tomorrowtomorrow - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:11 pm:

    Your issue is with her including “treating patients”? She is a registered nurse. Should she have also not said she’s an analyst because she’s not *currently* analyzing things? No, I don’t believe she lied or was purposefully misleading.


  57. - Tomorrowtomorrow - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:19 pm:

    Hers a great article addressing Lauren’s nursing history: https://minoritynurse.com/from-public-health-advisor-to-congressional-candidate-an-interview-with-lauren-underwood/


  58. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:59 pm:

    == “As a registered nurse treating patients, …”==

    The rest of the sentence is “I’ve seen the cost of health care soar, and millions of Americans suffer.”

    So the sentence is present perfect tense. Meaning someone is describing something in the past to relate it to something happening currently.

    “I have seen.”

    You need to go back to grade school.


  59. - @misterjayem - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 7:14 pm:

    “MrJM, I’m talking to you. That’s just an unnecessary comment.”

    In the long history of this site, I have never contributed a necessary comment.

    – MrJM


  60. - City Zen - Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 10:37 pm:

    I’m not a nurse, although I play one on TV.


  61. - theCardinal - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 4:52 am:

    The whole Underwood nurse issue campaign has been misleading. It may well work but don’t delude yourself into thinking she has practised nursing in any meaningful capacity as her commercial would have us believe. As for Hultgren his gosh I’m a good guy thing might work if he actually spent more time working in his district and meeting people he doesnt already know.


  62. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 7:19 am:

    I see lots of comments in the thread about response rates….let me assure you that this is very typical. The combination of telemarketers and spammers and cell phones has ruined response rates that 25 years ago were around 50 percent. What this means is that the polling company has to make many more calls and costs have soared, so the daily trackers we once had have gone. It may end up resulting in a new approach to polling; watch the USC-Dornsife LA Times poll closely, as this runs on a long-term focus group and was the only one to accurately call Trump’s electoral college margin. It’s currently estimating Democrats up nationally by 17 points, almost entirely driven by independent voters. If that’s anything close to accurate, you may see more pollsters take an interest in focus grouping over cold-calling.


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