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Pritzker changed the map

Thursday, Dec 6, 2018

* Click here or on the pic to read John Pletz’s full story at Crain’s Chicago Business

- Posted by Rich Miller        

36 Comments »
  1. - Anon - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:49 am:

    Hopefully this is a lesson for the GOP that one can’t be a terrible governor and do terrible things without consequences, regardless of how much they’re willing to spend to blame someone else.

    And — maybe a lesson for some of those legislators that maybe next time, if there ever is a next time, they shouldn’t let a billionaire bribe or coerce them into trying to destroy the state government in some fun political theory experiment.


  2. - Jimmy Two Times - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:49 am:

    More like Rauner changed the map because he was terrible.


  3. - Demoralized - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:55 am:

    It’s not only the counties that went blue, but the counties that went from dark red. The Governor couldn’t even keep the normally solid downstate Republican base in line. It’s indicative of just how badly people viewed him and was a strong rebuke of his time in office. The Governor failed at governing. And the voters told him that loud and clear.


  4. - wordslinger - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:56 am:

    Still can’t get over the Blue in those suburbs (you know, the place where about half of the state’s citizens live).

    To paraphrase Reagan, I don’t think they left the GOP, the GOP left them when it got all Dixiefied and Trumpified.

    To me, the change is most dramatically seen in the election of Lauren Underwood. A 32-year-old black woman wins in those edge suburbs and cornfields? Blows my mind.


  5. - Concerned Observer - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:58 am:

    I don’t agree. Not that JB ran poorly or anything, but Rauner and Trump changed the map.


  6. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:09 am:

    Other statewide Democratic candidates got more votes than Pritzker: Mendoza, Raoul, Frerichs, so it was more than Pritzker and his money. Rauner and Trump had a lot to do with it, as did the candidates themselves. Any one of these would have apparently cleaned Rauner’s clock, money or not.


  7. - NoGifts - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:15 am:

    I think Rauner changed the map.


  8. - NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:16 am:

    As others have said, Rauner changed the dynamic, as did Trump.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:16 am:

    Some very important factors to consider looking at this map;

    Trump alienated the traditional GOP.

    Rauner was terribly unliked, and considered awful to Republicans.

    Pritzker has field offices everywhere, and with VBM, maximized the disinfranchised.

    New voters were not this new Rauner/Trump circle of voters.

    The collars, and pockets downstate, the spreads downstate, the above, with ginned up anti-Trump/Rauner/GOP… it’s a credit to Dems and Pritzker’s Crew to have these results, as they are… results driven by hard work.

    I’ll wait to see where the ILGOP turns to rebuild again.


  10. - Anon - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:23 am:

    The overall point is correct, but I’m not impressed with this article, Rich. Quinn got less than 47% of the vote in 2010. Rauner got barely 50% in 2014. It needs some fact checking.


  11. - Steve - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:47 am:

    I believe Trump had more to do than Rauner with the change.


  12. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:49 am:

    I mostly agree with the growing consensus that Rauner and Trump changed the map. And it might well snap back in 4 years.

    That being said, JB’s decision to organize everywhere certainly didn’t hurt.


  13. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:54 am:

    ===I believe Trump had more to do than Rauner with the change.===

    Rauner didn’t help… himself or others…

    A poll of Rauner’s favorables, September, 2018

    ===The poll found 23.9 percent of respondents had an overall favorable view of Rauner and 52.4 percent had an overall unfavorable view of him.===

    There was no stopgap or wall to stop Trump or Rauner from each other.

    The Raunerism and Trump allowed a snowballing that people shunned the GOP, finding few reasons to support Rauner, his ticket, the suburban congresscritters, the GA candidates… going even into county races…

    No buffer to stop. Trump and Rauner buried the GOP


  14. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:58 am:

    What were the biggest reasons for the change in the map in the suburbs?

    Trump- especially the SALT change.

    Spending 30 million dollars than any candidate for Governor in US history. The previous record was California that is 3X the size of Illinois.

    Steriogenics

    Running on shifting the tax burden to rich people with the false promise that it will allow for more spending and will solve the budget crisis without any negative repercussions.


  15. - That One Guy - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 11:19 am:

    Pritzker (and democrats nationally) benefited from a map changed significantly by Trump. That “new” map was copied all across the country with suburbs moving from red or purple to blue.


  16. - Tired - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 11:57 am:

    JB did change the map but he was helped along the way by Rauner and Trump. A republican governor in Illinois has to hold there own in the City and Cook. Almost from day one Rauner demonized that part of the state making it easy for JB to pull a huge plurality out of there. You can’t make it up downstate.


  17. - x - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:08 pm:

    I would not put Trump and Rauner together. Rauner distanced himself greatly from Trump. But I do agree that it was Rauner who changed the map. Republicans who did vote for him, voted for the party, not the man. Others simply couldn’t stomach it, and under voted. Truly a lesson in poor strategies, starting from day one.


  18. - Fav Human - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:09 pm:

    It didn’t help that Hultgren committed political malpractice on a massive scale.

    Roskam campaigned hard. Hultgren mailed it in on a slow boat.

    But what if she’s there in 20? Do the D eliminate a district with her in it ? 😆😆


  19. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:09 pm:

    ===Steriogenics===

    Sterigenics didn’t tube Roskam. C’mon. And the plant is in Sen. John Curran’s district. Know him? The only one of four suburban Republicans targeted for defeat who survived.

    Spare me the lame excuses.


  20. - wordslinger - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:13 pm:

    LP, you’re too modest. Don’t forget about that great Rauner record and messaging machine. Certainly a big factor in changing the map.


  21. - Veil of Ignorance - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:13 pm:

    Would be interesting to know for the regions that flipped blue what previous investment levels were for campaigns vs. what Pritzker invested in terms of paid staff, local Dem party resources, etc. If his investment level holds at a higher amount, perhaps building out the Dem party infrastructure is for real. IL GOP may be in even bigger trouble than I realized.


  22. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:19 pm:

    ===Spending 30 million dollars than any candidate for Governor in US history. The previous record was California that is 3X the size of Illinois.===

    Yeah, I’ve been saying that for a while.

    Unlike you, I acknowledge, unlike in California, it worked here.

    To be like California…

    …Pritzker woulda had to have lost

    Guess that “Rauner failed” mantra worked. You admit as much.


  23. - DarkHorse - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:41 pm:

    As much as Rauner was a disaster as Governor, it’s noteworthy that the AG race spread was 12 points - a race the GOP vigorously contested. IL is becoming like New Jersey where the base GOP vote is low 40s, the ceiling barely above that. May just reflect the nationwide phenom of votes hardening along partisan lines.


  24. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:47 pm:

    ===IL is becoming like===

    Stop.

    This was a midterm election with an unpopular Republican president. Four years ago, Bruce Rauner won and so did Topinka. If she had lived, she probably would’ve won (if she ran). We might have a Democratic president in two years. The GOP is gonna be hurting for a long time in the General Assembly, but it could still come back statewide.

    IOW, one election does not a trend make.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:50 pm:

    What Rich said… and this…

    Illinois is not, and is nothing like New Jersey in the political landscape of states.

    New Jersey is neither a population hub, nor an agricultural leader.


  26. - Mama - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 1:30 pm:

    I’m surprised the counties with university voted Red.


  27. - Independent - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 1:44 pm:

    “I’m surprised the counties with university voted Red.”

    Champaign County, DeKalb (NIU), and Jackson (SIU) turned blue, Coles (Eastern) and McDonough (WIU) both a lighter shade of red.


  28. - Hyperbolic Chamber - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 1:48 pm:

    Trump clearly changed the map in the suburbs and a couple of university counties to the detriment of the GOP in 2018, but the idea that ‘Rauner changed the map’ is off a bit. In fact, it could be argued that it was/is a combination of Quinn (for the worse) and Pritzker (for the better with his message and money) that changed it for the Dems downstate. It wasn’t that long ago that the Dems won counties like Fulton and Rock Island.


  29. - Chicago Cynic - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 1:54 pm:

    Folks shouldn’t wed themselves the the crazy notion that one factor determined the outcome. Obviously Bruce Rauner was a disastrous governor who alienated both Ds and Rs. And yea, Trump was a big undertow. But you cannot ignore two things. 1) JB’s infrastructure and VBM program were directly responsible for dozens of marginal Democrats at various levels of government being elected. That’s not because of Rauner and Trump. And 2) JB got almost 800,000 more votes than Quinn with a turnout that looked strikingly like a presidential year. That’s also in part because of the machine they built.

    Not sure why folks want to deny him credit for running a great race, but he ran a great race and the results can be seen up and down the ballot.


  30. - IL14 resident - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 2:42 pm:

    Hultgren? who was that


  31. - An American - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 4:06 pm:

    Keep in mind he spent a ton of money, benefited from Sam McCann pulling a lot of conservative voters, and Rauner had an approval rating in the 20’s.


  32. - Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 4:33 pm:

    “one election does not a trend make…”

    Right-o! The Republicans swept in 1994, but the Democrats made gains within two years.


  33. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 7:08 pm:

    ===Champaign County, DeKalb (NIU), and Jackson (SIU) turned blue, Coles (Eastern) and McDonough (WIU) both a lighter shade of red.

    McLean as well with a lighter shade of red and it was a deep red county not all that long ago.


  34. - A 400lb. Guy on a bed - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 8:06 pm:

    The VAN didn’t hurt either.


  35. - Independent - Friday, Dec 7, 18 @ 6:48 am:

    @ArchPundit: True. Not sure how I missed that one having once lived there over a decade.


  36. - Anonymous - Friday, Dec 7, 18 @ 7:58 am:

    Turns out Art Jones is about the upper limit for white supremacy for the bulk of Illinois’s population.


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