Hopefully this is a lesson for the GOP that one can’t be a terrible governor and do terrible things without consequences, regardless of how much they’re willing to spend to blame someone else.
And — maybe a lesson for some of those legislators that maybe next time, if there ever is a next time, they shouldn’t let a billionaire bribe or coerce them into trying to destroy the state government in some fun political theory experiment.
- Jimmy Two Times - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 9:49 am:
More like Rauner changed the map because he was terrible.
It’s not only the counties that went blue, but the counties that went from dark red. The Governor couldn’t even keep the normally solid downstate Republican base in line. It’s indicative of just how badly people viewed him and was a strong rebuke of his time in office. The Governor failed at governing. And the voters told him that loud and clear.
I don’t agree. Not that JB ran poorly or anything, but Rauner and Trump changed the map.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 10:09 am:
Other statewide Democratic candidates got more votes than Pritzker: Mendoza, Raoul, Frerichs, so it was more than Pritzker and his money. Rauner and Trump had a lot to do with it, as did the candidates themselves. Any one of these would have apparently cleaned Rauner’s clock, money or not.
Some very important factors to consider looking at this map;
Trump alienated the traditional GOP.
Rauner was terribly unliked, and considered awful to Republicans.
Pritzker has field offices everywhere, and with VBM, maximized the disinfranchised.
New voters were not this new Rauner/Trump circle of voters.
The collars, and pockets downstate, the spreads downstate, the above, with ginned up anti-Trump/Rauner/GOP… it’s a credit to Dems and Pritzker’s Crew to have these results, as they are… results driven by hard work.
I’ll wait to see where the ILGOP turns to rebuild again.
===I believe Trump had more to do than Rauner with the change.===
Rauner didn’t help… himself or others…
A poll of Rauner’s favorables, September, 2018
===The poll found 23.9 percent of respondents had an overall favorable view of Rauner and 52.4 percent had an overall unfavorable view of him.===
There was no stopgap or wall to stop Trump or Rauner from each other.
The Raunerism and Trump allowed a snowballing that people shunned the GOP, finding few reasons to support Rauner, his ticket, the suburban congresscritters, the GA candidates… going even into county races…
No buffer to stop. Trump and Rauner buried the GOP
JB did change the map but he was helped along the way by Rauner and Trump. A republican governor in Illinois has to hold there own in the City and Cook. Almost from day one Rauner demonized that part of the state making it easy for JB to pull a huge plurality out of there. You can’t make it up downstate.
I would not put Trump and Rauner together. Rauner distanced himself greatly from Trump. But I do agree that it was Rauner who changed the map. Republicans who did vote for him, voted for the party, not the man. Others simply couldn’t stomach it, and under voted. Truly a lesson in poor strategies, starting from day one.
LP, you’re too modest. Don’t forget about that great Rauner record and messaging machine. Certainly a big factor in changing the map.
- Veil of Ignorance - Thursday, Dec 6, 18 @ 12:13 pm:
Would be interesting to know for the regions that flipped blue what previous investment levels were for campaigns vs. what Pritzker invested in terms of paid staff, local Dem party resources, etc. If his investment level holds at a higher amount, perhaps building out the Dem party infrastructure is for real. IL GOP may be in even bigger trouble than I realized.
As much as Rauner was a disaster as Governor, it’s noteworthy that the AG race spread was 12 points - a race the GOP vigorously contested. IL is becoming like New Jersey where the base GOP vote is low 40s, the ceiling barely above that. May just reflect the nationwide phenom of votes hardening along partisan lines.
This was a midterm election with an unpopular Republican president. Four years ago, Bruce Rauner won and so did Topinka. If she had lived, she probably would’ve won (if she ran). We might have a Democratic president in two years. The GOP is gonna be hurting for a long time in the General Assembly, but it could still come back statewide.
Trump clearly changed the map in the suburbs and a couple of university counties to the detriment of the GOP in 2018, but the idea that ‘Rauner changed the map’ is off a bit. In fact, it could be argued that it was/is a combination of Quinn (for the worse) and Pritzker (for the better with his message and money) that changed it for the Dems downstate. It wasn’t that long ago that the Dems won counties like Fulton and Rock Island.
Folks shouldn’t wed themselves the the crazy notion that one factor determined the outcome. Obviously Bruce Rauner was a disastrous governor who alienated both Ds and Rs. And yea, Trump was a big undertow. But you cannot ignore two things. 1) JB’s infrastructure and VBM program were directly responsible for dozens of marginal Democrats at various levels of government being elected. That’s not because of Rauner and Trump. And 2) JB got almost 800,000 more votes than Quinn with a turnout that looked strikingly like a presidential year. That’s also in part because of the machine they built.
Not sure why folks want to deny him credit for running a great race, but he ran a great race and the results can be seen up and down the ballot.