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Poll: Mendoza in 5th place, Daley closing on Preckwinkle, Chico and Wilson in the hunt
Friday, Jan 25, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller * We Ask America poll for the Sun-Times. 644 likely voters contacted this past Monday through Wednesday with a +/-3.88 MoE. Dorothy Brown was included and received 4.7 percent, but she’s now off the ballot. Undecideds totaled 26 percent…
Full results are here. * More…
It looks like the other candidates had better beat up on Mendoza to keep her out of the second round or their gooses could be cooked. * More from the poll…
Notice that “corruption” was in fourth place at 9 percent. Voters seem keen to hear more about candidates’ actual plans. But the political types are all focusing on scoring gotchas over Ed Burke. * Among African-Americans, Willie Wilson is clobbering Toni Preckwinkle 20-11. Dorothy Brown was getting 9 percent of black voters, and the expectations are that she will endorse Wilson, but I don’t know if that will transfer. In third was Bill Daley at 7 percent. 28 percent were undecided, however. Among whites, Daley has 17 percent to Chico’s 12 percent, with 24 percent undecided. Among Latinos, Mendoza led with 19.5 percent to Chico’s 17. Preckwinkle and Daley were essentially tied for third with 14.6 percent. * Among 18-24 year olds, Daley and Wilson were tied at 15.4 percent, with nobody else breaking double digits. * This older poll was robo-called…
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- Downstate - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:37 am:
Amazing to see that despite the media focus on racial and police issues, the citizens are most interested in crime and fiscal solutions.
- NIU Grad - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:38 am:
I think it was Carol Marin on the radio today who explained why these polls have been all over the place: There are 14 candidates and many people aren’t sitting through them all being listed and many have not been bilingual.
This is the highest I’ve seen Daley in a poll.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:39 am:
Willie Wilson doing work on Preckwinkle. Now with Dorothy “Jeans Day” Brown out, can he pick up those votes too?
Lori Lighfoot is the big loser in this poll.
- anon2 - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:39 am:
After the severe financial straits Richie left the City in, I don’t know why Chicagoans would want another Daley. Residents will be paying for the pension holiday and the parking meter sales for generations.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:43 am:
===Lori Lighfoot is the big loser in this poll.===
Meh. Preckwinkle’s poll shows Lightfoot doing much better.
I can almost see an ad for Bill Daley that uses the tag line, “…before it’s too late.” I’m not a big Preckwinkle fan, but I really really don’t want to vote for another Daley. Hopefully Vallas or Lightfoot can find some momentum somehow or this is going to be a disaster.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:44 am:
I don’t see anyone impressive in the bunch. This is going to be vote for the least objectionable again.
- lakeside - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:44 am:
It’s going to be so exciting in the runoff when I am forced to go hard for the woman closely connected to Berrios and the alderman(men) under indictment so as to keep yet another Daley from further bankrupting the city.
Rahm’s done a lot of nonsense in his time, but forcing us to choose between these jokers is maybe the worst sin he’s ever committed against Chicago.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:45 am:
Keep an eye on Willie Wilson.The p.r. he got for giving away money was gold, Jerry, gold.
- Pekin Pete - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:51 am:
Susana appears to be heading backwards. Would be interested to see what her voluminous cheering section on this website think about that. I think she is the one candidate that appears to do poorly the more folks see of her.
- Montrose - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:51 am:
Don’t underestimate the number of voters in Chicago that romanticize the Daley years. It may not be overt, but he is tapping into that “the way we used to be vibe”.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:55 am:
I was at a meeting in my Church at my old stomping grounds of Lincoln Square last night. Towards the end of the meeting, the conversations shifted to the mayoral race. So I just listened.
My conclusions is the residents of that area are looking to Make Chicago Great Again by wishfully looking back to “the days when the city was well run and safe.”
William Daley’s campaign may have more legs than others realize. His “no excuses” ads were mentioned several times. I never gave his campaign a thought . . . until last night.
Go figure.
- anon - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 10:57 am:
This poll is great for Daley. People are seeing what is going on in city council, and voters will vote for the person who can bring strength to the 5th floor. Not to sound like Trump, but more and more people i talk to are saying that Bill Daley is the only one in this group who is strong enough to keep this city together while the feds tear apart Burke, those close to him, and whoever else in city hall is doing bad things on the wire taps.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:01 am:
–Susana appears to be heading backwards. Would be interested to see what her voluminous cheering section on this website think about that.–
Always sadly surprised by those whose fee-fees are hurt by those “on this website.” No clouds to yell at in your neck of the woods?
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:02 am:
I think Preckwinkle, Chico, and Daley are all on TV, right? Mendoza needs to get on TV quick.
- Sue - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:03 am:
Anon2-because we all know Bill is the smart Daley
- northsider (the original) - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:05 am:
Billy would be Rahm’s third term. Compare their donor lists.
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:07 am:
Mendoza is on TV with a revised version of her soccer ad from a few months ago. Not sure if people thinking “haven’t I seen this before?” is good for her. As for Daley, when corruption is in the news and a Daley is one of the cleaner candidates on the issue, up is down and down is up.
- Iggy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:10 am:
lol chicago is going to end up with another Daley…
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:12 am:
==lol chicago is going to end up with another Daley…==
I’ll take him over the soda tax lady.
- Amalia - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:12 am:
why is Chicago’s Crime the #1 issue? not because there are lots of cops voting it up. it’s because fear of people of things like the mob of kids who punched the tourists and broke the eye socket of a man. or because of gang shootings in Lakeview and Uptown. A deeper dive on how crime is being treated by officials can give a picture of officials who are serious about it, and those who seem think emptying jails is the goal.
- Practical Politics - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:15 am:
Does Netflix have “The Great Man Votes” available for us to watch? It could be a valuable primer for the Chicago mayoral election of 2019.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0031392/reviews?ref_=tt_urv
On the surface, the movie is about a group of local politicians whose spin doctors have managed to use the media to manipulate the public to the point that the vote of one “great” man will determine the entire outcome of the elections. Ignore the specifics and this political satire is as relevant today as it was when it was made 60 years ago. It so happens that he is the last registered voter in a factory district. When the local party machine pins its hopes on the way this district goes, his vote becomes important…
- Steve - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:15 am:
John Kass has a good interview with Bill Daley.
https://wgnradio.com/2018/12/10/the-chicago-way-w-john-kass-12-10-18-election-hijinx-in-chicagos-13th-ward-police-drones-above-the-windy-city-and-bill-daley-promises-kasso-a-unicorn/
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:16 am:
I think Burke could be a big deal if someone has the money to make it a big deal, but it would seem that no one who is not connected to Burke themselves is going to have any money to make it a big deal. Kind of ironic.
- Pekin Pete - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:18 am:
==I think Preckwinkle, Chico, and Daley are all on TV, right? Mendoza needs to get on TV quick.==
Susana was the first one on TV with her “I play soccer and am running for Mayoller”
- City Zen - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:18 am:
Daley keenly eyeing those McCarthy and Joyce voters.
- Hammer - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:21 am:
I’m a little surprised at how damaging this race has been to Toni’s rep as a reformer. I know I’m starting to feel like if everybody’s going to be crooked, why not go with the one who’ll make it look nicest?
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:22 am:
Amelia, crime? In Uptown? My heavens.
- Chris - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:26 am:
I want to know where they all stand on wearing a wire—aka don’t be snitching.
Until any of the rest of them take a clear stand against crime in their ranks, Vallas has my vote.
- TopHatMonocle - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:38 am:
This poll is obviously terrible for Mendoza, and her numbers are likely worse now that the Burke story is growing to include Solis and VAP who were some of her biggest contributors. And say what you will about Preckwinkle overstating her petition problems, but she spent a month trying to convince people she’d be on the ballot only to roll into the Burke and now Solis/VAP mud. Preckwinkle is probably the biggest beneficiary of Brown being off no matter who she endorses. Daley will probably make the runoff due to his big pile of cash and Mendoza’s atrocious campaign. Looking more like a Preckwinkle and Daley runoff every day.
- ZC - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:45 am:
So what I’m wondering here, is: was it ultimately a strategic mistake of the Preckwinkle campaign, not to challenge Wilson’s petition signatures?
Were they really good, 12,500 of them? Because he’s been right up there with Dorothy Brown in the past, the number of forgeries he’s turned in.
- regular democrat - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:48 am:
Daley seems to be staying above the fray and plowing along with no tarnish from the Burke-Solis mess. If that continues and he can portray himself as the adult in the room I believe he wins the runoff. I believe there is more African American support there than people think.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:51 am:
To the Post,
It’s an interesting poll. Crazy things afoot after the Van Dyke sentencing and Burke issues too. Campaigns are like that. Polls are a snapshot, and yikes what a snapshot.
If we look at Mendoza thru Chico, for example, that jumble is 3 points behind “the leaders”… both polling at a robust… 12%.
It’s gonna take 19-23% to get into the “playoffs”.
With so many names, the ground game will be instrumental for Daley and Preckwinkle… and it looks more important for those named Chico thru Mendoza.
Being at 4% or less… yikes. You’re not even knocking on the door of 10%, let alone in the hallway to the door of 19%.
It’s going to come down to bodies on the street.
If Wilson can fund a late ground game, that would be the most interesting outcome from this snapshot poll.
It’s a two-horse, three-fer pack race. Who can get to that 19-23%?
- Amalia - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:52 am:
TDCheckers, when things start happening that were not happening before, people notice. there’s a whole blog devoted to lakefront crime.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:55 am:
===strategic mistake of the Preckwinkle campaign, not to challenge Wilson’s petition signatures?===
Hollywood Hendon is a petition expert. No way were his sheets gonna be thrown out.
- Wicker park - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 11:58 am:
Chicago communities like River North, West loop, Southloop, Ukrainian Village, Lincoln Park, Gold Coast, Roscoe Village, Rogers Park are being terrorized. Random and organized street crime has the residence fearful when turning every corner. Phones, Laptops, wallets, purses, and now even the coats off their backs are being stolen and strong-armed away from residence. These crimes are happening at an ever increasing rate with no end n sight. The police presence is nonexistent. I would expect that voters in these communities would be very interested in knowing what the candidates for mayor plan to do to address this new crime wave.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:08 pm:
Complete nonsense about crime. Look at historic data, crime is not higher in any meaningful way now than it used to be. Just more publicity via social media.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:08 pm:
Regular Democrat makes a good point about Daley’s African American support. Rightly or wrongly, the Daleys have always had pretty strong African American support.
Amelia, you still don’t get it. Uptown historically was a mix of rambunctious hillbillies and Hispanic gangs. I doubt your dog whistling about people taking the train up from the south side is really part of the crime patterns in Uptown.
- Sox Fan - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:12 pm:
Apologies if this is a dumb question, but do polls like this take into account where these voters live? For instance, the 19th ward typically votes at a much higher % than other wards in the city. Would a poll try to account for that?
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:14 pm:
Seeing Willy Wilson signs all over the Southside. He’s got my attention now.
- Rocky Rosi - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:18 pm:
Wilson makes the run off if he invests in social media and a ground game.
- Amalia - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:18 pm:
@TDCheckers, did not dog whistle. but since you implied, here’s the truth. the kids took the train up from the southside and punched tourists. there have been multiple incidents of train up and things happening. the shootings in Uptown are not that. different offenders and locations. and, yes, it’s worse than it was before (your history of Uptown is not what is current), in areas where it did not exist. Wicker Park is correct. this is affecting the issue polling.
- AnneBancrupt - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:23 pm:
Mendoza is on TV as much as Chico, Daley or Preckwinkle. Her cheering section on this website is due to having all of the inside baseball commenters.
I’m not sure how Daley can say he will be tough on crime when he proposes keeping the police ranks at what they’re at now, and having a camera on every corner. It’s not working as it is, as Rahm’s tenure has shown us.
This is whole election is a slick sideshow that will be going into April now and the future of an entire region is on the brink of going the right way, or the wrong.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:25 pm:
I see Willie signs all over the northsdie too. Doesn’t mean much.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:26 pm:
–Mendoza needs to get on TV quick.–
I’ve seen her spots as often as Preckwinkle, Daley and Chico.
If I still gambled, I wouldn’t bet a dime on who I think might finish in the top two in the first round. I’d say about six or seven of them have a legit shot at making the second round. No runaway trains here.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:28 pm:
===This is whole election is a slick sideshow that will be going into April now…===
(Sigh)
It always was going to go till April. No ONE was going to get 50% + 1.
===…the future of an entire region is on the brink of going the right way, or the wrong.===
No matter who does win, the mess and the advantages Chicago has will be sorted out. “Wrong way” elections are change elections, and there is no incumbent to make that claim when a dozen candidates are want “change”
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:33 pm:
I never vote for a person who challenges petitions. It offends me and I have been voting in Chicago for over 50 years and never missed an election. I am leaning towards Willie Wilson. I will not vote for another Daley. Crime has gotten worse but it is not as bad as the 1970s.
Uptown was nice in the 1950s and 1960s but became dangerous in the 1970s and was starting to change but that change has stopped. Rogers Park is more dangerous then the last few decades.
- Practical Politics - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:34 pm:
I discounted the ubiquitous Willie Wilson for Mayor signs because the signs are all posted along the parkways and not too many are on the properties of actual homeowners.
I wonder if Preckwinkle suffers on the crime issue (in addition to her Ed Burke issues) because she has been an advocate of emptying the jails (incarcerating criminals and suspects costs too much money and Toni calls the system racist) and her hand selected State’s Attorney is perceived as soft on crime (reducing felonies to misdemeanors and letting so many people walk out of the Criminal Courts). Some of the crimes that Chicagoans are upset about are being committed by repeat offenders who would have been locked up in other counties.
- Hammer - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:54 pm:
Wicker Park, calm down with your mad max fantasies. I live in roscoe village and hang in several of the other neighborhoods you mention. I’ve never felt unsafe in any.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 12:54 pm:
I don’t watch a lot of TV, but I thought from here that she went up later than Preckwinkle, Chico, and Daley.
The last time I was on Rush Street later at night, it was basically an open air drug market. I don’t see much reporting on that.
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:00 pm:
— I never vote for a person who challenges petitions. It offends me…—
Less than petition fraud, apparently.
- Sue - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:05 pm:
Anonymous- does that mean you never voted for Obama. He got his start in politics by challenging a petition
- Colin O'Scopy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:08 pm:
=Daley keenly eyeing those McCarthy and Joyce voters.=
Jerry Joyce will announce he is quitting the race and endorsing “Candidate XYZ”. Candidate XYZ will be the candidate the Joyces’ think will win the 5th Floor.
The Joyces then make a triumphant return to O’Hare Concession-land.
One question: “Do you want a Shamrock Shake with your McRib”?
- Rudy’s teeth - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:08 pm:
Received a Christmas card from Billy Daley. Wonder if I’ll get a Valentine. Also, a mailer full of family pictures from Jerry Joyce. Looks like some candidates are targeting the 60610 zip code.
- Because I Said So.... - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:12 pm:
=It’s going to come down to bodies on the street.=
Although his numbers are horrible, this is where the Joyce’s ecxel.
- Maxs Mom - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:23 pm:
I am surprised that Willie Wilson a Trump/Rauner supporter is doing so well in the polls.
https://capitolfax.com/2018/07/27/willie-wilson-says-he-voted-for-trump-and-rauner/
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:28 pm:
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:00 pm:
As if you would know
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:30 pm:
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:00 pm:
Sounds like you know about corruption
- Boone's is Back - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 1:45 pm:
If Mendoza can’t crack the 30% mark with Latinos she will not be making it into a runoff.
- statehoss - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:21 pm:
Crime as the top issue.
Looks like the CWB blog is more tapped into the psyche than Zorn, the Trib and the folks on tv whoever they may be.
- Steve - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:24 pm:
This poll shows that right now this is a wide open race. It’s not clear who will be in the top 2 . Also, a great ground game could make all the difference. Plus, the weather. No one knows how the weather will affect the out.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:28 pm:
Most of my interest in this poll is as a data point, and I’ll be curious to see the same pollster’s numbers at the end of February. With that MoE, a few surprising combinations of runoff opponents would be possible if the vote was today.
- C Ball - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:40 pm:
Mendoza is lagging behind Preckwinkle, but the gap between Mendoza and the other 3 is a statistical tie. It is within the margin of error for the differences between their shares (given the small shares the error is less).
- Lucky Pierre - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:53 pm:
Increasing crime in Roscoe Village and other northside neighborhoods is not a “Mad Max fantasy”
A local group called the Roscoe Village Neighbors Association is launching a new system of surveillance cameras designed to deter crime and to assist Chicago police in their investigations.
The new privately-maintained cameras, dubbed “Neighborhood on Watch,” were officially unveiled this week. The RVNA called the event “Police Appreciation Day” as the system was revealed to the public.
“The city isn’t and may not have the resources to protect us, so we’re going to have to do it ourselves,” Commonwealth Tavern owner Matthew Baldino said.
The RVNA has allocated $40,000 to business owners and residents in Roscoe Village to help pay for the installation of 27 cameras. The cameras will record day and night, and will feed into a cloud network that can be accessed by police if there is a crime committed.
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/roscoe-village-surveillance-cameras-chicago-police-490501251.html
Wealthy blocks in the Southport corridor also have private security
Beginning in July 2016 the Southport Community Alliance also contracted with a major Illinois licensed security firm (also utilized by Fortune 500 companies) for security patrols of the Alliance area. These patrols are made by plain clothes off-duty police officers in an unmarked car in order to deter crime and report suspicious activity to the on-duty police.
http://www.southportcommunityalliance.org
- West Wing - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 2:56 pm:
This poll is good news for the quiet, steady Bill Daley campaign that has churned out more policies than any other campaign. His focus on shaking up the city - 50-to-15 city council, independent aldermanic maps, property tax freeze, taking on the NRA over guns - may be breaking through. The endless stream of bad headlines tying Mendoza and Preckwinkle to Burke and Solis (and we’ll see who else) is turning into an ahchor around their necks.
- Amalia - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:03 pm:
@West Wing, spot on. I’m not surprised that he has smart ideas. I’m interested that people seem to be into those ideas. did not expect that.
- Mr. Know-it-All - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:09 pm:
Oh, no - you cited to Richard Streetman. That’s like feeding a gremlin after midnight. Big mistake, dude.
- anon2 - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:20 pm:
What would be the legal process to reduce to City Council from 50 to 15? Would the aldermen have to vote for it?
- Montrose - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:28 pm:
“Increasing crime in Roscoe Village and other northside neighborhoods is not a “Mad Max fantasy” ”
A statement like that should be followed by data that demonstrates that crime has increased, not by stories that tell me there are more cameras and private security guards. That just tells me there are more cameras and private security guards.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:42 pm:
Montrose, there is no data showing crime increasing in any meaningful way. Crime is near all times lows in Chicago. Homicides spiked a few years ago due to the crazy ACLU agreement, but even that is now going down again.
We just here about crime more through Facebook and other outlets.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 3:51 pm:
Just saw an intro spot for Jerry Joyce (Chicago native, Yale, married family man). Call to action is to visit his website.
- Roman - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 4:04 pm:
The crime numbers are interesting. (And yes, crime is no where near as bad as it was in the 70’s and early 90’s, but perception is reality in politics.)
Kinda surprised no one has really tried to establish themselves as the “law-and-order” candidate. That path is definitely available. Watch any of the candidate forums and you’ll see they all stick to progressive, criminal justice reform talking points. Even McCarthy kinda dances around it — preferring to talk about societal causes of crime instead offering “get-tough” sound bites. Maybe deeper polling data suggests that’s what the voters want.
- Been There - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 4:08 pm:
Another thing about Joyce is I don’t think he drops out but if he can somehow get up to 8 to 9 percent whoever gets in the runoff is going to be salivating for his endorsement. Those people are were not the ones inspired by a commercial but by face to face contacts. I’m not sure he is going to carry the 19th ward by as much as he hopes but that ward traditionally turns out about 4 percent of the total vote in the city
- Hammer - Friday, Jan 25, 19 @ 4:13 pm:
“Kinda surprised no one has really tried to establish themselves as the “law-and-order” candidate.”
The police aren’t 100% toxic right now but Laquon Mcdonald looms over this election (and would’ve been one of Toni’s strongest points if this Burke muck hadn’t stuck to her). Primary voters include a lot of black and brown folk. You have a lot to lose and not a lot to gain for being the law and order candidate.