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“Prohibition plain just does not work”

Wednesday, Jan 30, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rep. Kelly Cassidy (D-Chicago) on legalizing cannabis

The proposal would also allow municipalities to opt out of the program, which means they could prohibit dispensaries from setting up shop within city limits. They can’t restrict residents from privately using the product, though. Localities would also be allowed to add an additional tax. However, the bill would cap how high that tax can be so it does not drive residents back to an illicit market.

“When we went out to Colorado, we met with the Boulder County District Attorney and he told us a cautionary tale that we’ve carried with us ever since,” said Cassidy. “His county, relatively affluent, not a lot of fiscal pressure there, they didn’t add a local tax. And they saw their illicit market all but disappear. In neighboring Pueblo County, a community with some significant fiscal challenges, they put the maximum tax on that they could and their illicit market grew.” […]

In terms of the tax dollars, Cassidy and Steans are still negotiating the “optimal tax strategy.” Recognizing that conversations about recreational cannabis almost always include talk of added revenue for the cash-strapped state, Cassidy said they are not creating the program to make money.

“Step one is ending prohibition, undoing the harm of the war on drugs, and then there will be revenue,” she said. “Estimates are $350 to $700 million. Put a pin somewhere in the middle, let’s say $500 million. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but it’s not the ‘why.’ It’s not the reason.” […]

“If a teen is caught drinking, their license can be taken away from them until they’re 21,” said Steans. “Right now, that’s not in place for cannabis. If a teen is caught smoking cannabis, they don’t lose their license. We’re going to change that in the bill. If they are found smoking, their license will be taken away until they’re 21.”

* And Sen. Heather Steans (D-Chicago) tells WBEZ why she supports legalizing cannabis use

When I first got into the legislature, we were just starting to debate medical cannabis programs. … As I sort of had to start studying and learning about it to decide how I was going to vote on that, it came to me that prohibition plain just does not work, and that we really should be trying to go to a different structure overall around cannabis. I don’t think prohibition keeps it out of the hands of folks. In Illinois, you have 800,000 people who use cannabis on a regular basis. Ninety-eight percent are buying it from the illegal market. You don’t know what you’re buying. … [With legalization,] you can get a safe product. You know what you’re getting, and it gets out of the hands of teens a lot better when you do it in a regulated fashion. I just think it’s better policy.

       

54 Comments
  1. - Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 9:37 am:

    Maybe I am finding the wrong data, but I can only put California’s tax collection in that $500 million range. Shouldn’t we expect 1/3 of that?


  2. - hot chocolate - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 9:44 am:

    The driver’s license thing is ridiculous


  3. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 9:50 am:

    The tax revenue isn’t a huge score, but hopefully the law that passes should encourage opportunities for small business risk-takers.

    It will take vigilance and raising heck to ensure that a few clout-heavy moneybags don’t get to form their own legal cartel.


  4. - A Jack - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 9:52 am:

    BlueDog it doesn’t matter if they don’t collect a dime in taxes if they don’t include that revenue in the budget. And if they don’t make a dime it will still be worthwhile because you will have less incarcerated people and more people paying taxes in legitimate jobs (instead of earning a living of the black market sale of pot).


  5. - sonny chiss - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 9:52 am:

    800,000 regular users? 800,000/12.8M = 6.25%. Seems low. But hey, safe, legal and rare is OK I guess.


  6. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 9:53 am:

    Marijuana legalization is not a fiscal panacea, but $500 million is still a lot of revenue.

    Prohibition is a debacle. I hope we overcome the supporters of this colossal failure. Not only does it not work, it’s humiliating. Why are we forcing responsible adults who are consuming something less dangerous than alcohol to break the law?

    Sen. Manar recently hosted a marijuana legalization town hall. In one article he was quoted as saying he might not support it. It was also reported that calls to Manar’s office were 4-1 for legalization. I generally support restrictions that will protect non-users and definitely support teen drug use prevention programs. I hope that if legislation is carefully crafted, he will support it.


  7. - City Zen - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 9:56 am:

    They’ll walk out of the dispensaries and sit in shirtsleeves in the perfect evening, or they’ll find they have reserved seats somewhere at the Phish concert, wherever they sat when they were in college and smoke. They’ll watch the show, and it will be as if they’d dipped themselves in magic bong waters. The memories will be so thick they’ll have to brush them away from their faces. People will smoke. People will most definitely smoke.


  8. - NeveroddoreveN - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:00 am:

    This may sound a bit against the grain, but I suggest severely underestimating the tax revenue. Cautious optimism here will leave us with a pleasant surprise rather than an unmet expectation.


  9. - LXB - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:03 am:

    Having varying local taxes seems like an invitation to black market arbitrage, even if it doesn’t make the existing illicit market competitive on price. Buy in Notax County, take it over to Tenpercenttax County and sell at a 5% mark-up. I suppose the hope would be that the 5% profit isn’t enough incentive to deal with the legal risk, but given the illicit market structure is already in place, that may not matter. Maybe disallow local taxes for a while, until the illicit market is basically dismantled, and then allow relatively small ones.


  10. - DuPage Saint - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:05 am:

    Are they also thinking of legalizing marijuana laced cookies candy and other food? I am all for recreational marijuana but the food and candy stuff for adults fine but think is a great risk for little kids


  11. - Harvest76 - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:07 am:

    I cant believe that, in 2019, we still need to be reminded that prohibition doesn’t work.


  12. - njt - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:07 am:

    ===Maybe I am finding the wrong data, but I can only put California’s tax collection in that $500 million range. Shouldn’t we expect 1/3 of that?===

    “Less than 20% of cities in California — 89 of 482 — allow retail shops to sell cannabis for recreational use, according to the California Cannabis Industry Assn. Cities that allow cannabis sales include Los Angeles, Oakland, San Francisco and San Diego.”

    If we have the same rate of adoption then maybe revenue may fall, but hopefully Illinois cities aren’t as myopic.


  13. - Annonin' - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:08 am:

    How many years are the giving the medical growers and dispensers? Wondering if this will be the same CFS as gaming expansion?


  14. - Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:08 am:

    I dont disagree one bit on taxes. I am hoping(rich doesnt think we will get there), that we can shutter one state prison on account of legalizwtion.


  15. - wondering - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:09 am:

    “Step one is ending prohibition, undoing the harm of the war on drugs” Absolutely…..terrible waste of police, prison, and legal resources and needless desruction of reputations through criminalization. If not a thin dime is raised by taxation this will more than compensate. Waste, fraud, abuse, and corruption? It is MJ prohibition enforcement. MJ prohibition is corrosive to law enforcement agencies.


  16. - Al - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:09 am:

    Colorado has half our population and brought in $225 million in State tax revenue last year. The weather is great in California and if you have a privacy fence you can grow it in your backyard, even if you live next door to the Mayor. Ha ha. The regulations are high in California so the black market thrives. So many unlicensed dispensaries the district attorney’s can’t keep up. Oregon and Mexico both have a glut of Cannabis leaking across the border. I doubt the high end of revenue for illinois. Prices will fall. I see $10 to $20 packs of Marborol Greens at the gas stations in ten years. It won’t be $600 an ounce it will be $12.50 at Casey’s and it won’t be any more of a big deal than buying a pack of Swisher sweets. If we want good public policy we would increase taxes on liquor at the same tax we legalize cannabis.


  17. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:11 am:

    I don’t think the tax rate should use the black market price as the standard.

    As entrepreneurs, black market sellers might sell their marijuana below cost just to keep their customers and sell their other products.


  18. - Anyone Remember - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:45 am:

    wordslinger -
    “It will take vigilance and raising heck to ensure that a few clout-heavy moneybags don’t get to form their own legal cartel.”
    Based upon medical marijuana, perhaps the answer to not let Lou Lang anywhere near the bill drafting process?


  19. - RJM - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 10:47 am:

    Price is only one factor in dealing with the black market. There aren’t many black market dealers who carry a couple hundred different products that are tested and labeled. There is a great benefit to knowing what your buying and being able to get it consistently. As for arbitrage between municipalities or counties, people either eat the added expense for convenience or they travel to lower tax places to buy. See cigarettes, alcohol and soda during the soda tax debacle.


  20. - cannon649 - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 11:09 am:

    please note that these are top line amounts

    there will expenses that set the program and ongoing compliance - will not be cheap. Have not seen any expense related to the revenue.

    Note this up expense.


  21. - Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 11:19 am:

    Before extracting monopoly profits, make sure you hav a monopoly. Break the cartel distribution and marketing network. Don’t count on revenue from drug sales until the competition is wiped out beyond repair.

    I agree with BDD and Wondering. We will save money on the expense side.


  22. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 11:49 am:

    The drivers license idea is excellent. If we approach RC and DUI like we do alcohol it won’t stop kids but it will deter some and others will face the consequences of violating the law.

    Any revenue is a plus. I’ll take what Colorado is getting or their minimum estimate. A good start. Plus the savings to the state and locals not having to incarcerate and prosecute and the savings to individuals for criminal defense. That is big money. The only ones with anything to lose are attorneys.

    Total cost of ownership is high.

    Sounds good to me.


  23. - BCOSEC - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 11:50 am:

    Do we have the numbers on how many of the current Illinois state prison population is incarcerated solely due to a cannabis charge?

    I question that any Illinois state prison will be closed as a result of recreational cannabis legalization. Not just because I suspect few are there at present due to cannabis charges, but also because there will be local opposition regarding closing a prison and job loss in the rural areas.

    If anything, prison population might increase due to increased prosecution of illegal sales after the legalization statute goes into effect? Just a thought?


  24. - vole - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 12:08 pm:

    Stearns: “Ninety-eight percent are buying it from the illegal market. You don’t know what you’re buying.”

    It ain’t so much that people don’t know what they are buying but whom in the chain they are buying from. Most people would prefer not to be supporting criminal cartels and not mixing with any link in the chains of such. Taxes on legal weed will be seen as a bonus by those who seek to be dudes abiding by the law and living by the restraint of conscience.


  25. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 12:09 pm:

    Our prisons are understaffed amd crowded as it is - rather than shuttering a facility i suspect this will ease the burden on overworked staff and cut down on mandatory overtime which is expensive, dangerous, and exhausting.

    This is a Good Thing. Let’s get some bills out there.


  26. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 12:25 pm:

    As for taxation, maybe there should be a PR campaign to make a positive impact. Make it favorable, to buy legally and help people, like funding teen drug use prevention programs or however else they use the money to our benefit. Advertise also against cartels and illegal buying. Try to put the people on the side of legalization and taxation.


  27. - don the legend - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 12:38 pm:

    “We disagree. Prohibition is working nicely.”
    Chiefs of Police
    Sheriffs Association
    Illinois State’s Attorneys
    Association of County Executives
    Department of Corrections Vendors


  28. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 12:59 pm:

    ==Do we have the numbers on how many of the current Illinois state prison population is incarcerated solely due to a cannabis charge?==

    “Soley” isn’t the right adverb. It isn’t the marijuana charge that gets you incarcerated as much as the parole violation charge.


  29. - Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 1:07 pm:

    Grandson. ‘Try to get the people on the side of legalization and taxation’? That’s as silly as me suggesting that everyone should shop union.


  30. - Paying Attention - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 1:08 pm:

    Colorado increased arrests for black people after legalization (2013, 14, and 15) before decreasing below prohibition levels. And as a rate (per 100,000 people), black people are still arrested at 2x as often as white people. https://cdpsdocs.state.co.us/ors/docs/reports/2018-SB-13-283_report.pdf
    And revenue of $100 million/year might be a realistic guesstimate: http://ilspac.illinois.gov/pdf/HB2353_HA1_SB316%20SA1_Cassidy_Steans_Cannabis_Regulation_&_Taxation.pdf


  31. - Mama - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 1:48 pm:

    What happens when adults get caught smoking cannabis while driving any type of vehicle? Do they just lose their license, or do they go straight to jail/prison?

    In my opinion, they should lose their drivers licenses, and be forced to go to AA or NA meetings for a couple of years with no jail time.


  32. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 1:51 pm:

    “That’s as silly as me suggesting that everyone should shop union”

    There’s nothing silly about smarter use of tax dollars. Right now we are whizzing away public money fighting a futile war against marijuana. It’s smarter to save money in criminal justice costs and gain revenue from marijuana consumers and others in the economic chain.

    If we frame marijuana tax revenue as paying for goods like teen drug use prevention programs, schools, jobs programs, property tax relief or other helpful ways, that would be appealing to many.


  33. - Mama - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 1:53 pm:

    Does the state police have any real numbers on how many people are selling cannabis illegally in IL?

    Will legalizing cannabis cut illegal drug sales in Chicago and stop the gang wars?


  34. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 1:53 pm:

    Just because your eighth grade history book says that Prohibition didn’t work, that doesn’t mean you never research further on this issue.

    If you did, you’ll know why wet state voters supported it, how it ended VD outbreaks, how it cleaned up the manufacturing, distribution and selling of alcohol and how it helped curb rampant alcoholism in the US.

    If all you knew about Prohibition comes from old TV shows, comics and movies - get educated beyond that 8th grade textbook page.


  35. - Mama - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 2:04 pm:

    We need to use marijuana’s tax revenue to pay what the state owes the state pension funds and pay off the debts Rauner added the pass 4 years. If we pay off our debts up front, it would free up a lot of money for all of those other programs the state needs.

    Money for job creations usually means giving a company a ton of money, and get little if any return. Look at what happened to Wisconsin from their job creation deal with Foxconn. There has to be a cheaper way to create jobs in IL.


  36. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 2:05 pm:

    “Just because your eighth grade history book says that Prohibition didn’t work”

    It’s not a book. It’s been reality for decades. Do certain people not get around much? Marijuana use is rampant. Probibition has utterly failed. All or virtually all the money spent by Illinoisans on non-MMJ goes to the black market.

    “If all you knew about Prohibition comes from old TV shows, comics and movies - get educated beyond that 8th grade textbook page.”

    If people’s prohibition views come from Reefer Madness, therein lies the problem.


  37. - Notorious RBG - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 2:08 pm:

    VanillaMan - you’re right, it also helped curb domestic violence and violence against women in general. However, Prohibition itself was ended because it was a costly disaster - both in terms of dollars and lives - that created larger problems than regulation of the drug. Tobacco and alcohol are just as dangerous. Tight regulation of marijuana is the solution.


  38. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 2:33 pm:

    –If all you knew about Prohibition comes from old TV shows, comics and movies - get educated beyond that 8th grade textbook page.–

    What sources would you suggest?

    –how it helped curb rampant alcoholism in the US.–

    Alcohol consumption dropped in the first-year or two, but soon exceeded pre-Prohibition levels, making for a nation of lawbreaking drinkers doing business with gangsters.

    –how it cleaned up the manufacturing, distribution and selling of alcohol–

    Huh? Rotgut from illegal stills, distributed by the barrel of a Tommy gun?

    –how it ended VD outbreaks,–

    I’m pretty sure you don’t get VD from drinking beer. I’d know, if you did.


  39. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 2:34 pm:

    Pardon, here’s a source I meant to link for the above.

    https://object.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa157.pdf


  40. - Stuntman Bob's Brother - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 2:43 pm:

    ==and more people paying taxes in legitimate jobs (instead of earning a living of the black market sale of pot)==

    That’ll be an interesting metric to track. I think it’s more likely that once this particular source of illegal revenue dries up, most current black-marketers will move on to other criminal activities, like stickups, boosting autos, or robbing freight trains, than growing a conscience and taking a 9-5 job. Has legalization in other states caused an increase in other crimes? A quick Google check just said “no”, but I think it’s a little too soon to tell for certain.


  41. - Paying Attention - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 2:54 pm:

    From the abstract: “no relationship between county laws that legally permit dispensaries and reported violent crime. We find a negative and significant relationship between dispensary allowances and property crime rates, although event studies indicate these effects may be a result of pre-existing trends. These results are consistent with some recent studies suggesting that dispensaries help reduce crime by reducing vacant buildings and putting more security in these areas.” http://ftp.iza.org/dp11567.pdf


  42. - Winderweezle - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 3:06 pm:

    According to June of 2018 IDOC report on 40,872 adult inmates of both sexes, 280 or .7% were there for cannabis offenses.

    There were 549 or 1.3% incarcerated for retail theft, (shoplifting).

    There were


  43. - JDuc - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 4:22 pm:

    It’s a mind altering DRUG. Why we want to keep lowering the bar and further soften up our society is a mystery to me. People can’t even handle a cold winter day, need to miss work and school. Now we are all excited about legalizing drugs. Hell, let’s just legalize prostitution while we’re at it. Should help us be more competitive with China……


  44. - Harvest76 - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 4:51 pm:

    With all due respect, jduc, I’m not sure you really know much about marijuana to begin with and probably shouldn’t make broad generalizations about its effects or its use. As far as prostitution goes, I agree 100%, we should definitely legalized prostitution, regulate it, and make it a much safer endeavor then it is currently.


  45. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 5:04 pm:

    –Why we want to keep lowering the bar and further soften up our society is a mystery to me. People can’t even handle a cold winter day, need to miss work and school. Now we are all excited about legalizing drugs. Hell, let’s just legalize prostitution while we’re at it. Should help us be more competitive with China……–

    I bet clouds don’t dare float over your house.


  46. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 5:09 pm:

    Skip the money…it’s about justice…and freedom…isn’t it?

    Immediate Release for all non-violent Cannabis Criminals…Let the innocent people go?

    Lets keep this argument on the real side?

    They are in prison for supplying consumers with marijuana.

    Somebody had to do it?

    Somebody is always going to do it…until it’s legal…then…We can purchase marijuana legally or choose to grow our own.

    Personally,I would pay a little more to be legal.

    Marijuana legalization minus the recognition of our inherent and legal right to grow is impossible.


  47. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 5:13 pm:

    ===It’s a mind altering DRUG===

    So are your ridiculous comments. /s


  48. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 5:33 pm:

    “Why we want to keep lowering the bar and further soften up our society is a mystery to me. People can’t even handle a cold winter day, need to miss work and school.”

    Internet tough guys are so 2003, bro.

    – MrJM


  49. - BCOSEC - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 5:55 pm:

    I see the small percentage of cannabis related incarceration’s mentioned above, and another mention that the real issue is not cannibas arrests, but cannibas use while on felony probation, which leads to probation revocation and prison sentence on the underlying offense.

    Does the proposed legislation prohibit felony probation revocation due to cannibas use (positive tests for THC)?

    Seems like that is an important issue from the criminal justice reform part of this legislation.


  50. - Jduc - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 6:06 pm:

    https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/marijuana-facts-teens/want-to-know-more-some-faqs-about-marijuana

    I may be crazy. Does the NIH have any credibility ??


  51. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 6:22 pm:

    –I may be crazy. Does the NIH have any credibility ??–

    Yes, to both.

    If you wish to continue Prohibition on marijuana, do you want to extend it to the consumption of alcohol, tobacco, sugar, trans fats, and other common substances that the NIH raises health issues about?

    The gangsters and jailers will love a Big Brother like you. Or do you prefer Big Nanny?

    How is your “cure” preferable to the “disease?”


  52. - Rabid - Wednesday, Jan 30, 19 @ 7:35 pm:

    Repeal the background check for cardholders restore gun rights. Homegrown controlled by department of agriculture, not law enforcement deciding the laws


  53. - Rabid - Thursday, Jan 31, 19 @ 9:21 am:

    800,000 citizens are targeted for asset forfeiture and rights taken away, 34% still think Ronald Reagan was right


  54. - Anon - Thursday, Jan 31, 19 @ 2:23 pm:

    Right now I am looking into medical marijuana because I can no longer get pain medication. First you have to pay the state for a permit. Then you have to find a dispensary.(I live in a rural area, none local)Then you have to find a way to pay for it, it’s expensive, and insurance does not cover it. I wonder how many chronic pain sufferers are hoping this goes through soon.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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