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Poll: Lightfoot leads Preckwinkle 58-30

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Stand for Children IL PAC today released the results of the poll it commissioned for the Chicago mayoral run-off. The poll, conducted February 27-28, included 400 likely Chicago voters.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 58% of respondents chose Lori Lightfoot and 30% chose Toni Preckwinkle. 12% were undecided.

“Stand for Children has been going door to door to learn what Chicago voters believe the next mayor needs to do so that our schools best serve the children of this city, especially those who are traditionally overlooked and under-tapped because of their skin color, ZIP code, first language, or disability,” said Mimi Rodman, Stand IL PAC chairperson. “Both candidates have made education a priority of their campaigns. The question is which of them can truly deliver and put words into action.”

And if you didn’t know before, now you know why Preckwinkle is already up with negative TV ads. She has to drag Lightfoot down to her own level before she can build herself up.

* Be very careful with these crosstabs because the sample size is on the small side…

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently completed a survey of likely April 2019 voters in the City of Chicago, sponsored by Stand for Children. The survey shows Lori Lightfoot begins the race for Mayor with a commanding lead over Toni Preckwinkle. Both candidates are highly recognized and viewed favorably, but more than half of voters say they will back Lightfoot in April.

Some of the specific findings of the survey include the following:

    • Both candidates are viewed favorably by a majority of voters. Sixty-four percent view Lightfoot favorably and 53 percent have a favorable opinion of Preckwinkle. However, Preckwinkle also has a greater number of detractors. While only ten percent of voters view Lightfoot unfavorably, more than one-third have an unfavorable opinion of Preckwinkle (37%).

    • Voters favor Lightfoot over Preckwinkle by nearly a two-to-one margin. As shown in Figure 1, 58 percent of voters say they will support Lightfoot in the upcoming April election, while thirty percent back Toni Preckwinkle and 12 percent remain undecided.

Lightfoot leads among essentially every major subgroup of the Chicago electorate, including:

    o 60% of women and 56% of men;
    o 54% of voters under age 50, 68% of those aged 50-64, and 55% of those age 65 and over;
    o 60% of college-educated voters and 55% of those without a four-year degree;
    o 62% of liberals, 55% of moderates, and 54% of conservatives; and
    o 62% of white voters, 59% of Latinos, and a 49% plurality of African-Americans. Lightfoot’s 49% to 40% lead among African-Americans is one of her narrowest of any demographic group.

Lightfoot also wins majority support from the backers of every major candidate that was defeated in the primary election – including a 54% to 38% margin of support among those who backed Bill Daley.

Survey Methodology: From February 27-28, 2019, FM3 completed 400 telephone interviews (on landlines and cellphones) with randomly-selected Chicago voters likely to participate in the April 2019 election. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. Due to rounding, not all results will sum to 100%.

* By the way, I was out with some folks having dinner Saturday night and one of them, a Chicago resident, received a live polling call. The pollster tested negative messages on both candidates.

I took some quick notes. The pollster tested Preckwinkle’s tax increases, an allegation that she’d made the county’s healthcare system worse, took money from Ed Burke, was a Joe Berrios ally and is a party boss who took TIF developer money.

Lightfoot, the recipients were told, made money representing big corporations, was censured over a deportation and is a faux reformer. Lightfoot pretends to be an outsider, but took appointments from Daley and Emanuel.

I don’t know who was behind that particular poll, but I assume everybody and their sister is in the field these days.


  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:46 am:

    The Sun-Times endorsement, with Lightfoot not having a foil like Daley-Joyce, Preckwinkle-Mendoza, Lightfoot’s base and a lack of a fouling base counter-intuitive to her… I’m not too surprised by these snapshot numbers. Nope.

    Lightfoot gave a whale of a speech after the primary, her ad highlights those remarks, and she’s still the Sun-Times endorses candidate.

    Should be a fun sprint to the finish here.

  2. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:48 am:

    If this is at all a representative sample, it’s over. Preckwinkle is flailing to see if anything sticks to Lightfoot, while voters have established an image of her. I am curious to see what kind of money Lightfoot can raise, but she is capable of using free media to advance her campaign.

  3. - NotRich - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:51 am:

    If Lori L can raise some cash, and get on tv in the next 10 days this race is over. She can do soda pop tax ad, a Berrios/Burke ad, and close with Toni sweeping sexual harassment claims in her office under the rug.. all winning ads….but… she needs money

  4. - A guy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:52 am:

    High percentage of Soda drinkers maybe?

  5. - Steve - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:55 am:

    Alderman Ed Burke is supposed to be indicted by May 3. If he’s indicted before April 2, Lori probably will be helped .

  6. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:56 am:

    I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say there’s no better tool to raise money than to have a poll saying you are up 28 points with a month to go in the Chicago mayor’s race.

  7. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:08 am:

    I knew nothing about Lightfoot until she won last week. I just read her Sun-Times questionnaire. She’s pretty progressive. She said she supports marijuana legalization, a graduated state income tax and not amending the state constitution to remove the pension protection clause. She also said she supports a Chicago casino.

    Lightfoot said that public employee retirees are the backbones of many communities, and they should not be hurt by pension reform. That’s very positive, as we should finally get rid of the idea of amending the Constitution for pension reform.

  8. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:19 am:

    ===it’s over===

    And now we see why you won’t choose a name. This ain’t over until it’s over.

  9. - wordslinger - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:23 am:

    –And if you didn’t know before, now you know why Preckwinkle is already up with negative TV ads. She has to drag Lightfoot down to her own level before she can build herself up.–

    She sure has to try. I don’t think “experience” will be a winning message for Preckwinkle. Now that she’s made the cut, Lightfoot enjoys a huge positive in that she has not held elected office and had to get down in the muck of the political barnyard.

    And it’s going to be real tough for Preckwinkle to sell herself as the “real reformer” with that Cook County Dem chair title hanging around her neck. That gig ain’t exactly famous for producing “reformers.”

    I bet Preckwinkle wishes now she’d never gone for county Dem chair.

  10. - Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:24 am:

    Saw a new Lightfoot ad on TV this morning, WGN morning news. It was positive and featured change and a statement that said something about City Hall working for the people, and not the people working for the machine.

    I am assuming that she has an influx of new donations post election.

  11. - Actual Red - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:35 am:

    I think Lightfoot has been able to be “all things to all people” so far. Progressives see her as more progressive, yet moderates see her as more moderate. Both ends of the spectrum distrust the establishment that Preckwinkle embodies.

    But, Preckwinkle has the opportunity to spend her reserves to try and define her opponent. Preckwinkle has decided her best chance is to peel off Lightfoot’s left wing. I’m interested to see whether or not that works.

  12. - Roman - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:38 am:

    It’s not over. Preckwinkle is well known, which hurts. Lightfoot is unknown, which helps.

    All the polling data before last week had Preckwinkle well underwater on approval. The fact she got only 15 percent of the vote in the first round, despite having almost universal name recognition, indicates those pre-Feb 26th polls were correct.

    In addition to driving up Lightfoot’s negatives across the board, I’m guessing Preckwinkle path to victory requires winning the black vote by a considerable margin. Portraying Lightfoot as being soft on bad cops (which will be news the cops) is the main way she’ll do it. And things could get real ugly under the radar.

  13. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:40 am:

    ===Lightfoot is unknown, which helps===

    Yep. It’s Preckwinkle’s job to now fill in the blanks.

  14. - 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:41 am:

    ===And it’s going to be real tough for Preckwinkle to sell herself as the “real reformer” with that Cook County Dem chair title hanging around her neck.===

    Yep. I wonder if Team Preckwinkle will have a press conference to announce Mike Madigan’s endorsement or it that one will just be done via private conference call? Given the earlier post, I don’t think being Madigan’s candidate is the label Preckwinkle wants.

    Regardless, I’m guessing the 13th Ward goes big for Toni. Too much is at stake for the Machine guys to take a chance on Lightfoot.

    Chicago ain’t ready for reform. Or is it?

  15. - NIU Grad - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:42 am:

    The final numbers show that the Daley + Joyce votes combined go up to over 20%. While everyone is speculating where Wilson will push his votes (if at all), I’m wondering where those voters (Northwest & Southwest) will go. I doubt Lightfoot will court their endorsements, but those voters might reluctantly go towards her.

  16. - lake county democrat - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:44 am:

    Lightfoot is going to get both papers’ endorsement which will help on the “all things to all people” front. And though it may only have a smalleffect, I think she’s enjoying respect for having been willing to run against Rahm while the others stayed out - she looks courageous and the rest, including Preckwinkle, look oportunistic.

  17. - Stones - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 10:45 am:

    I don’t have a horse in this race. That being said I don’t care for this trend of dismissing candidates for high political office with experience. I understand the political climate but more often than not the inexperience rears its ugly head at some point in time (Trump, Rauner, etc.)

  18. - TopHatMonocle - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:02 am:

    Obviously those are not good numbers for Preckwinkle. The only light at the end of the tunnel for her is that she’s already been viciously hit with every shred of negative information to be found and is still standing, while no one has taken a swing at Lightfoot until now. I’d bet that Lightfoot’s numbers will go down from here, but starting off this high makes it hers to lose.

  19. - NIU Grad - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:05 am:

    “trend of dismissing candidates for high political office with experience”

    I think that’s how the Preckwinkle team is trying to frame it, but right now the Lightfoot team needs to point out that Toni’s experience isn’t all it’s cracked up to be: Executive-office mismanagement, failed tax increase efforts (at a time when the party is mobilizing for a statewide constitutional amendment on taxes), scandals within most departments, and a bungled pension proposal. That’s just the tip of the iceberg, I imagine.

  20. - Southwest Sider - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:07 am:

    Lightfoot said some interesting things about Chicago’s zoning map and Aldermanic power for rezoning issues. These items I’m with her. I’d like to hear more about fiscal solutions, as she will inherit the underfunded pensions.

  21. - Astro Jetson - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:17 am:


  22. - Regular democrat - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:19 am:

    I believe the nw side 38 41 45 are lightfoots for the taking.

  23. - Astro Jetson - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:21 am:

    =no better tool to raise money than to have a poll saying you are up 28 points with a month to go in the Chicago mayor’s race=

    Some, like me, could argue that this could have a chilling effect on raising money. And it could affect voter turnout. The theory is that people who see this as a runaway will not invest nor participate because they think their money and vote aren’t needed.

  24. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:29 am:

    I’m operating under the theory that this is Chicago, and those who smell the meat a’cooking want to get in nice with the next likely head chef.

  25. - West Wing - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:32 am:

    This is a change election and Lightfoot is viewed as the outsider and change candidate. With the serious problems of crime and hallowed out neighborhoods that need economic hope, an outsider with solutions has a better chance to win than the current Democratic Party chair. Advantage Lightfoot.

  26. - tgk - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:37 am:

    “The final numbers show that the Daley + Joyce votes combined go up to over 20%. While everyone is speculating where Wilson will push his votes (if at all), I’m wondering where those voters (Northwest & Southwest) will go. I doubt Lightfoot will court their endorsements, but those voters might reluctantly go towards her.”

    Those people will stay home on election day. No one who votes for Daley (lol) or Joyce (mega-lol) will be bothered to pick.

  27. - Daley crash - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:39 am:

    The Daley brand is the lowest it has ever been and now it looks like this poll is capturing another big name in the political dump. New is what people are looking for in 2019.

  28. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:43 am:

    Daley votes will reluctantly to Preckwinkle, because they’d like to see John Daley take over as Board President.

    Joyce voters will back Lifghtfoot because they see her as the change they also voted for and many would like to see him run against Foxx. Being aligned with Lifghtfoot would help.

  29. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:46 am:

    ===because they’d like to see John Daley take over===

    “They” would be the folks still within the Daley family circle. The vast majority of voters do not cast ballots in this way.

  30. - Responsa - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:46 am:

    If even close to accurate this poll result does not surprise me a bit. Most Chicagoans know Toni and have an opinion of her. If they wanted Toni to be Mayor many more voters would have cast a ballot for her in the first go-round. Given the choice now, to the initial “someone other than Toni” voters Lori is looking better and better to them as they think on it and get to know her.

  31. - Hammer - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 11:59 am:

    This is all so surprising and exciting. I’m interested in this round of endorsements/shadow endorsements. Have any of the non winners from the first round thrown their support in yet?

  32. - Southfarmllama - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 12:28 pm:

    While I don’t think it’s over, Toni is running out of time. If Lightfoot can raise some money and get some good ads going, it will be over. People are just so done with the machine and I think a lot believe Lightfoot will actually make change. I’ll give her a chance.

  33. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 12:35 pm:

    Lightfoot is a pretty good candidate. Her nose is relatively clean, and I don’t think the stuff from Preckwinkle’s negative ad resonates with voters. I do think Lightfoot would govern more towards the middle than her rhetoric. Preckwinkle’s best strategy may be to try to run to the left of Lightfoot, but I think Chicago is more moderately liberal than many people assume. Rahm beat Chuy pretty handily. Preckwinkle’s Burke problem and soda tax, but more Burke, prevents her from running more to the center.

  34. - Chicagonk - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 12:37 pm:

    Lightfoot was the worst possible match up for Preckwinkle.

  35. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 12:45 pm:

    Chicagonk is correct, I think.

  36. - James - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 12:50 pm:

    A Lightfoot win means Preckwinkle returns to her county board president job for 4 years and Democratic party chair. This fact will help Lightfoot capture voters who like both candidates. It’s not like a vote for Lightfoot is a vote to permanently retire Toni.

  37. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 12:52 pm:

    ===Chicagonk is correct, I think.===


    ===Lightfoot not having a foil like Daley-Joyce, Preckwinkle-Mendoza, Lightfoot’s base and a lack of a fouling base counter-intuitive to her…===

    … there’s no “baked in” negative constituency. Lightfoot being less known also means she has less negstune she’s carrying that is known too.

    In this tight window, Preckwinkle will need to define Lightfoot and by doing so, how will that help strengthen her own numbers and offset baked in known negatives of herself (Preckwinkle).

    Daley, Mendoza, Wilson, McCarthy, they all had negatives that can be “remembered” far easier than exposing Lightfoot negatives now.

    Then there’s the Sun Times endorsement, and Lightfoot getting to run against default Preckwinkle negatives…

    It’s gonna get interesting.

  38. - Steve - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 1:43 pm:

    If Lightfoot continues to talk about corruption and the status quo in Chicago: she might even do better than these poll numbers.

  39. - Just Me 2 - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 1:43 pm:

    If I were Preckwinkle I would just throw in the towel and finish my career with a high note as a 3-term County President and be the senior elected official in northeastern Ill. If she runs against Lightfoot and loses that sets up 4 years of awkwardness instead of city/county cooperation.

  40. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 1:58 pm:

    ===If I were Preckwinkle I would just throw in the towel===

    Sure you would.

    You might wanna migrate over to Facebook where peeps may believe that silliness.

  41. - Grand Avenue - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 2:13 pm:

    Preckwinkle needs to tell her surrogates to not say a word in public or on social media and let the campaign do the talking. She does not need another Cisek or Martwick episode.

  42. - Annonin' - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 2:25 pm:

    Mr/Ms 47th
    Toni got 382 votes in 13. not sure much more to get there. Guessing both will look to see if they can find some friends in the Mendoza Chico Wilson Joyce camps

  43. - 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 2:39 pm:

    ===Toni got 382 votes in 13.===

    Reports that made their way up north indicate the 13th Ward committee was neutral for Mayor. Ask him if he’s going to remain neutral in the run-off next time you see him.

  44. - Truth - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 2:41 pm:

    I thought OW relinquished the right to comment on Chicago politics when the mighty Susana (whom OW pumped up for years on here) was roundly rejected by actual Chicagoans?

  45. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 2:52 pm:

    ===relinquished the right to comment===

    Nah. Good try.

    If you knew it would be Preckwinkle and Lightfoot you’re wasting your time here. Play the ponies or the lottery.

    I picked no winners, or said who would be in the runoff.

  46. - Robert the Bruce - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:11 pm:

    Good news for Lightfoot, but it is still early and it is only one poll.

    Given all the Latinx voters up for grabs, a Gutierrez or Chuy endorsement could do wonders for Preckwinkle.

  47. - Left the City - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:18 pm:

    I have already received several Facebook posts from City employees that were pro Joyce that are now pro Lightfoot or anti Toni. These are obviously NW & SW side voters

  48. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:28 pm:

    I think the best move for Preckwinkle is to resign both dem party and Prez office and declare herself all in. That might shake this up and give her a narrative that she doesn’t care about machine just serving Chicago in the only job she really wants. I agree easier for people to support Lori knowing Toni still has major positions to fall back on. Daley taking other position and endorsing her perhaps might help with Daley voters who might have had Toni as second choice due to desire to have experienced person in such a big job.

  49. - revvedup - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:38 pm:

    “I’m nobody that nobody sent”, but seeing that Daley’s votes went up from about 10% to 14% since the election makes me wonder why he pulled out of the race so fast, when it appears he could still win in a 3-way race.

  50. - wordslinger - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 3:48 pm:

    “I’m nobody that nobody sent”, but seeing that –Daley’s votes went up from about 10% to 14% since the election makes me wonder why he pulled out of the race so fast, when it appears he could still win in a 3-way race.–

    He missed Al Gore’s call telling him not to concede.

  51. - Cheryl44 - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 4:00 pm:

    There was never going to be a three way race.

  52. - Bourbon Street - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 4:29 pm:

    I predict that county workers (not sure how many live in Chicago) will go for Lightfoot given that they have had to take furlough days. Toni claimed that the repeal of the soda tax made furlough days necessary, but I imagine that not too many workers were buying that justification.

  53. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 5:19 pm:

    On the pension issue, Lightfoot told Crain’s that she wanted to eliminate pensions for City workers hired after 2020. Ty Fahner from the Civic Committee was one of her top 25 donors going into the primary and it appears that he was one of her law firm mentors at Mayer Brown.

  54. - 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 5:27 pm:

    ===Lightfoot told Crain’s that she wanted to eliminate pensions for City workers hired after 2020===

    (cross posted from the other thread):

    That’s one way to spin it, lol. Another way is that Lightfoot proposed creating a Tier II system for city employees, as the state did under Pat Quinn. Did any other Democrats vote for Tier II in Springfield? Anyone? Bueller?

    Does that make Pat Quinn and the rest of them virulent, anti-Union, anti-public employees public officials? Or, does that mean Lightfoot, like Quinn, Madigan and Cullerton, and many others, recognizes that this is one of the only legal ways to reduce the long-term financial exposure facing the city?

    Your comment is worthy of your nickname too.

  55. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 6:18 pm:

    - Truth -

    You may also want to consider how I wrote many times that in the Comptroller race she overcame a terrible campaign.

    Mendoza didn’t run a great campaign this time, and it cost her.

    That’s the “truth” too, lol

  56. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 6:57 pm:

    At 47th ward, you are incorrect. The city already has tier II. Lightfoot clearly said she wanted “an alternative to a pension” for new hires. That is completely different than simply a different pension system.

  57. - Bobby Beagle - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 7:37 pm:

    There was a lot of group think on CF surrounding Mendoza. Just look at the November 14th thread to see some posts that have aged extremely poorly.

    OW, perhaps never said “Mendoza will 100% make the run off”, but you undoubtedly pumped her propsects up to levels which I previously argued were not grounded in what was actually being discussed in Chicago.

    Likewise, Carlos Ramirez-Rosa was frequently scorned. Here we are in March. No need to be overly defensive. Maybe just listen to younger people living in Chicago about what they are hearing from likely voters instead of mocking them next time.

  58. - Bobby Beagle - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 8:00 pm:

    Here’s a link to the thread I mentioned, which is amazing to read post-election.

  59. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 8:05 pm:

    ===perhaps never said “Mendoza will 100% make the run off”, but===


    I’m gonna stop ya there.

    The rest is you pretending you think you know things… but the one thing you know better is to try to pretend you can tell me what I said or believed.

    ===- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 4:59 pm

    This is the ball game to get to the runoff…

    ===Preckwinkle came out on top with 21 percent of the vote. Mendoza was second with 16 percent.===

    The two candidates, be they Preckwinkle, Mendoza, whomever, that get voted 19-23%… they will be in that runoff.

    There are two, and only 2 that had, and have, my complete attention.

    Preckwinkle and Mendoza.

    That 19% number is going to be an important bench mark===

    Mendoza ran a campaign not unlike her first Comptroller run, but this time it cost her.

    ===Carlos Ramirez-Rosa was frequently scorned. Here we are in March===



  60. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 8:42 pm:

    Good on Lightfoot for facing the facts.Defined benefit pensions don’t work. No new employee should get one.

  61. - Shytown - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:17 pm:

    == Carlos Ramirez-Rosa was frequently scorned. Here we are in March…Maybe just listen to younger people living in Chicago about what they are hearing from likely voters instead of mocking them next time ==

    If you think that’s some kind of authentic spouting on the part of Rosa and not spoon fed talking points from team preckwinkle then I’ve got a bridge I’d like to sell you. And “younger people” stayed home on election day.

  62. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:34 pm:

    I know nothing about Lightfoot and haven’t lived in Chicago since Reagan was president, but I’m hoping she can win and put move Chicago a little further away from the past.

    Of course, she’s wrong on the no pension thing, but nobody’s perfect.

  63. - Veil of Ignorance - Monday, Mar 4, 19 @ 9:35 pm:

    I’ve seen some of Preckwinkle’s negativead now and I think the corporate lawyer/represented GOP one will backfire considering it’s referring to Lightfoot’s representation against partisan gerrymandering; that only bolsters her independent-minded and fair play image that is playing particularly well with white progressives who are fed up with Burke/Berrios culture. Longshot best attack is going after Lightfoot’s strength; highlight her biggest mistakes during her police oversight time. Messaging being she couldn’t do that right then how can you entrust the entire city.

  64. - statehoss - Tuesday, Mar 5, 19 @ 12:04 am:


    You did seem to be pretty hot for Mendoza in the thread the Beagle kid linked.

    You also gave Dec. 10th as the over/under on when Daley would drop out.

    Surprised to see you do anything but shrug and admit you were wrong. It’s Trumpian to come out guns blazing after being that gloriously wrong.

  65. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 5, 19 @ 3:41 am:

    ===You did seem to be pretty hot for Mendoza in the thread the Beagle kid linked.===


    That was November… lol

    ===- Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:01 am

    ===Undecided: 19 percent

    Toni Preckwinkle: 14 percent

    Bill Daley: 13 percent

    Susana Mendoza: 12 percent

    Lori Lightfoot: 10 percent

    Gery Chico: 9 percent===

    This is probably the pool of potential “1-2” folks, but what is the rub? Election Day and trying to not only get your voters out… finding out “who the heck are our voters?” is more problematic.

    You have 19% undecided, and 19% for any of these folks could mean making the runoff.

    The structured GOTV any of these folks can generate with any semblance of organized and real pluses, that will probably go a long way to get to the next round.

    Otherwise, it’s going to be;

    “We’ll put the name in the mix, see if we shake out this round.”

    Not great===

    If anything, Lightfoot “surprised” me.

    ===Surprised to see you do anything but shrug and admit you were wrong.===

    There’s nothing to be wrong about.

    I was watching 2, they had my attention, But geez, Louise, even February 15th, I knew it was a roll of the dice…and Lighfoot was the “big winner” making the runoff.

  66. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 5, 19 @ 8:47 am:

    I hope Taxtwinkle quits County President to run for Mayor and then gets trou ced by Lightfoot.

  67. - statehoss - Tuesday, Mar 5, 19 @ 2:03 pm:


    I admit you were not the most egregious. There’s a larger issue here.

    When 3 candidates with near total name rec are all polling at 11% or below a couple weeks before election day, analysts should not be saying “Preckwinkle, Daley and Mendoza are the ones to watch.” Though virtually everyone was saying that.

    Instead, they should be saying Hmmm, why can’t these folks close the deal? Why do so many people know them, but so few are willing to vote for them?

    It was a sign that someone was going to break out. The only question in my mind, and I told many people this, though not here, was who and how many. Had the Trib endorsed Vallas, you might well have seen that surge split. Then maybe it would have been a damaged Daley and a damaged Preckwinkle, neither getting even 1/6th of the vote.

    But it was clear to anyone who was trying to listen to the evidence rather that none of the 3 “frontrunners” had any real popularity or strength.

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