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CFL takes a pass on mayor’s race

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Fran Spielman

The Chicago Federation of Labor decided Monday to remain neutral in the historic April 2 mayoral runoff in a move likely to be seen as a boon to Lori Lightfoot and a major blow to Toni Preckwinkle. […]

On Monday, the CFL met with and questioned both candidates and discovered little difference between their positions on labor issues. […]

Sources said IBEW Local 134 and Operating Engineers Local 399 are leaning toward endorsing Preckwinkle.

Laborers Unions that provided heavy support to Susana Mendoza in Round One are leaning toward Lightfoot. So is Local 9 of the Electricians Union.

Operating Engineers Local 150 — another union with a Sun-Times Media ownership stake — will either endorse Lightfoot or remain neutral, sources said. That union has ties to a dark-money PAC that spent $1.2 million to blanket the television airwaves with ads blasting Bill Daley as “Bruce Rauner’s mayor” and as a “Wall Street banker who got rich off working people.”

You’d think some of these unions would be open to backing Preckwinkle because she’ll still be county board chairman if she loses the mayor’s race. But her campaign was pretty heavy-handed with Mendoza, and that angered some of the comptroller’s institutional supporters. SEIU may have over-played its hand with other unions (and the CFL) as well.

There’s usually plenty of time to heal wounds inflicted during the primaries for countywide and statewide offices (unless you’re Bruce Rauner, but he’s the outlier with a lot of things). Chicago’s runoff day is just four weeks from tomorrow. It’s simply way too soon to forgive and forget and Lightfoot apparently isn’t a threatening presence to most unions.

* I think Preckwinkle’s biggest problem is that people who voted for everyone else in the first round did so at least partly because they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the purported “front-runner” - and that would be 84 percent of those who voted. Few really know who Lori Lightfoot is, which as a commenter pointed out earlier today is most definitely a big help at this point in the campaign. It’s hers to lose right now because she’s 1) not Toni Preckwinkle; and 2) a blank slate.

Preckwinkle has to firmly and quickly take Lightfoot down, gin up the aldermen with the warning that Lightfoot will take away their outside income and their ward prerogatives, hand out as much patronage as she can lay her hands on, get the church ladies on her side and otherwise rehabilitate her own image (although the latest poll found that, despite it all, she still has a 53-37 fav/unfav rating). All in four short weeks.

Whew.

Not to mention that yet another self-inflicted wound could prove politically fatal. She’d also better hope that nothing happens with the federal case against Ald. Ed Burke in the next few weeks.

* On the other hand, Lightfoot didn’t even have a campaign manager until now

Lightfoot’s team has hired Manuel Perez, the campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, as campaign manager. […]

Perez also ran Garcia’s 2015 campaign against Mayor Rahm Emanuel and more recently ran Tanya Patino’s campaign for the 14th Ward seat won by disgraced Ald. Ed Burke.

Preckwinkle didn’t endorse Chuy when he ran for mayor, so this might be a little payback without having to get directly involved.

I’m curious whether other candidates who ran real campaigns held anything back from their Preckwinkle oppo books that they could now share with Lightfoot. Stay tuned.

* This should give you an idea of the direction Preckwinkle is going

Meanwhile, Preckwinkle has hired three veteran African-American campaigners to her team. They reflect “the diversity and values” of the campaign, according to a release. Jessey Neves becomes campaign manager. She’s a longtime aide to Preckwinkle, who first served as director of communications and policy for her 2010 campaign for Cook County Board president. The Preckwinkle campaign has also hired Jason Lee as deputy campaign manager. Lee has served as political director of United Working Families and before that with the Chicago Teachers Union and AFSCME’s International Union. And Ty Cratic has been named director of operation. He currently is chairman of the Cook County Young Democrats and sits on the executive board of the Cook County Democratic Party.

Cratic’s LinkedIn page says he’s been Preckwinkle’s Director Of Operations since November.

* Meanwhile

Lightfoot reported nearly $360,000 in campaign contributions between Wednesday and Saturday, with $100,000 alone coming from Chicago philanthropist Leslie Bluhm, $50,000 from Phillip Peters, of Chicago, and $10,000 from Northwest Side Ald. Scott Waguespack, 32nd, according to state election data. During that same stretch, Preckwinkle reported $6,500. Heading into the Feb. 28 election, Preckwinkle had reported raising about $4.6 million — second only to Bill Daley who raised $8.3 million. Of the 14 candidates, Lightfoot was in the middle of the pack. She reported raising $1.5 million.

The latest spending report from Comcast shows Preckwinkle just bought $42K in ads compared to Lightfoot’s $1,287.

* Related…

* In race for mayor, Lori Lightfoot and Toni Preckwinkle court the 2/3 of Chicago that didn’t vote for them

* Laura Washington: Two black women running for mayor? For some black men, that’s a nightmare

  31 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Republican Sen. Chapin Rose’s SB2124

Adds pneumatic guns, spring guns, paint ball guns, and B-B guns that have specified features and that are brought to school, any school-sponsored activity or event, or any activity or event that bears a reasonable relationship to school to the list of objects for which a student shall be expelled for a period of not less than one year. Provides that expulsion for these types of guns may be modified by the superintendent and the superintendent’s determination may be modified by the school board on a case-by-case basis.

Check the bill text for the “specified features”

Any pneumatic gun, spring gun, paint ball gun, or B-B gun that expels a single globular projectile not exceeding 0.18 of an inch in diameter, has a maximum muzzle velocity of less than 700 feet per second, or expels breakable paint balls containing washable marking colors.

* The Question: Your thoughts on this bill?

  41 Comments      


Illinois Policy ramps up spending

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hmm…



And that doesn’t include what they’re spending on my website, or on other platforms like YouTube, Google, etc.

Click here to see the ads they’ve been running on Facebook. Unsurprisingly, the main focus is the progressive income tax.

  28 Comments      


Pritzker appoints Aging, DoIT, Insurance directors

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Building on a strong team of diverse experts in their fields, Governor JB Pritzker announced the following personnel appointments:

Paula Basta will serve as Director of the Illinois Department of Aging (IDOA). Basta has dedicated her career to improving the lives of senior citizens and promoting women’s and LGBT rights. She currently serves at the director of senior services and health initiatives at the Chicago Housing Authority and teaches at the Loyola University School of Social Work. Basta came to the CHA after over 18 years at the Chicago Department of Family and Support Services, where she served as regional director of the Northeast (Levy) Senior Center from 2004 to 2018 and as the director of information and assistance from 2000 to 2004. Prior, Basta spent over four years as the executive director of H.O.M.E., Housing Opportunities & Maintenance for the Elderly, and nine as a social worker and the director of religious education at St. Clement Roman Catholic Church. She received her Master of Divinity from the McCormick Theological Seminary and her Bachelor of Science in social work from the University of Dayton. Basta was inducted to the Chicago LGBT Hall of Fame in 2009.

Ron Guerrier will serve as Chief Information Officer of the Illinois Department of Innovation and Technology (DoIT). Guerrier has more than 20 years of experience managing IT in the private sector and has served as chief information officer for multi-billion dollar companies since 2012. He last served as the CIO of Express Scripts, the nation’s largest pharmacy benefit manager, and also served the same role at Farmers Insurance Group from 2015 to 2018. Prior, Guerrier spent 17 years at Toyota North America, rising from an IT manager to division director to chief technology officer to vice president and chief information officer. He received his Master of Science in management from North Park University, his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and executive education certificates in information technology from the University of Chicago, University of California Berkeley, Boston University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Robert Muriel will serve as Director of the Illinois Department of Insurance (IDOI). Muriel is a civil and commercial lawyer with more than 20 years of experience representing small businesses and professionals in trials, appeals and arbitrations in state and federal courts. His core practice is civil and commercial litigation, including insurance coverage and bad faith claims, financial fraud claims, legal malpractice cases and consumer class action cases, including actions brought under the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act. Muriel was formerly President of the Hispanic Lawyers Association of Illinois and President of the Alumni Board of Governors for Loyola University Chicago School of Law. He also has served on numerous civic boards, including serving on the Board of Directors for the AIDS Legal Council of Chicago, Almost Home Kids and the Executive Committee for the Alliance of Bar Associations for Judicial Screening. He received his Juris Doctor from the Loyola University School of Law and bachelor’s degrees in accounting and finance from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

  22 Comments      


Tax odds and ends

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Finke

One issue the Republicans mostly sidestepped at the news conference was polling data that shows there is support among both Democrats and Republicans for a graduated tax.

Twice the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute polled people on the graduated income tax. To a certain extent, the results were pretty much what you’d expect. Self-described liberals and Democrats thought the idea was great. The margin was a little closer among people who called themselves moderates or independents, although support among those folks was still pretty overwhelming.

The really interesting result was among people who said they consider themselves to be conservatives or Republicans. Among conservatives, 49 percent were in favor of a graduated tax and 47 percent against. Among Republicans, the margin was 51 percent in favor and 44 percent against.

Now any individual poll can come up with oddball results, but the Paul Simon people found very similar results in polls conducted in consecutive years. Bottom line is that Republican voters may not be as opposed to the idea of a graduated tax as Republican lawmakers.

That’s true about rank-and-file Republican support for a graduated income tax in Illinois.

But the issue has been on the back burner forever, so it hasn’t yet been truly polarized by the two parties. If the measure does get on the ballot and big money is spent against it and Republicans come out publicly opposing it and it’s obviously backed by Democrats, that partisan split could very well change. It happens a lot.

* Sweeny

Pritzker noted that other states around Illinois have graduated income taxes, mentioning Wisconsin and Iowa. In both of those states, however, low- and middle-income people pay a higher percentage of their income in state income taxes than Illinoisans do.

In Wisconsin, a married couple filing jointly and making $14,980 a year pays 5.84 percent in state income taxes; if they make $29,960 or more they pay 6.27 percent; the rate is 7.65 percent for couples making $336,200 and up.

In Iowa, a married couple making $14,382 a year pays 6.12 percent; if they make $31,960 they pay 6.8 percent; at $47,940 the rate kicks up to 7.92 percent, and if that couple earns $71,910 or more they pay 8.98 percent to the Hawkeye State.

For the kabillionth time, you have to look at effective tax rates, meaning the rate after deductions, exemptions, etc. A married Wisconsin couple who made $14,980 a year and filed jointly with two deductions would pay zero state income taxes. They’d face an effective tax rate of just 1.56 percent and pay $468 if they made $29,960.

The same is true of Iowa. Click here to play with that state’s effective rates.

The first thing Pritzker’s new Think Big group had better do is educate political writers about how to calculate effective state tax rates.

* And, finally

A five-cent tax on single-use plastic bags could add up for the average family, based on current use rates.

Environmental groups have estimated 100 billion plastic bags are brought home by U.S. consumers a year — nearly one bag per person a day — or nearly 1,500 a year for a family of four.

The statewide five-cent bag tax proposed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker in his first budget address would bring in about $20 million a year, and it’s far from a done deal. But should it come to pass, it could add up to an additional $75 in annual taxes for a household bringing home 1,500 plastic bags a year.

Or, plastic bag use could fall, as it has in Chicago

Before the tax went into effect Feb. 1, shoppers took home an average of 2.3 disposable bags every time they shopped at a big grocery store. After the tax went into effect, shoppers took home one fewer bag, according to the study.

And in the UK

England was the last country in the U.K. to introduce a charge for single-use plastic bags. Wales was the first to do so, in 2011, followed by Northern Ireland in 2013 and Scotland in 2014. All saw plastic bag use decrease by 70-80% year-on-year.

And Israel

On Jan. 1, 2017, Israel began requiring its supermarket chains to charge 3 cents for plastic bags. Since then, plastic bag use has dropped 80 percent, according to the country’s Environmental Protection Ministry.

While that means Illinois families may not actually wind up paying $75 a year in bag taxes, it also means the state may not raise $20 million from the tax, but that’s a rounding error on a rounding error. It’s essentially using a minuscule budget line to change behavior.

  53 Comments      


Happy Pulaski Day!

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Herald & Review

Brigadier Gen. Casimir Pulaski was a Polish military officer who fought beside American colonists against the British during the Revolutionary War.

Born in Warsaw, Poland, on March 6, 1745, he was a cavalry officer and rebelled against the Polish King Stanislaw II, which forced him to exile in France. He met Benjamin Franklin, who recruited him to the colonies and the fight for independence. He offered his services as a private solider to Gen. George Washington. […]

Pulaski never made it to the land that would become Illinois prior to his 1779 death, but many Polish people did. Chicago was once home to the largest population of Poles outside of Warsaw, and Pulaski was a proud hero.

Mount Pulaski in Logan County, founded in 1836, is named in his honor.

* WBEZ

As early as the 1930s, Polish Americans in Chicago lobbied for public recognition of Casimir Pulaski. Their first major victory was a declaration, in 1933, that the former “Crawford Road” in Chicago would now be “Pulaski Road.” […]

In the 1970s, the Polish American Congress in Chicago took up the cause of a statewide Casimir Pulaski holiday. In 1977, they succeeded in getting a law passed designating the first Monday in March “Casimir Pulaski Day.” This was only a commemorative day, meaning Illinois schools, public offices and banks stayed open. […]

The lobbying efforts simmered for years, and gathered momentum again in 1985 when State Senator Leroy Lemke introduced a bill in the Illinois Senate to make Casimir Pulaski Day a full public holiday. It would give public schools and some government offices a day off, at the governor’s discretion. […]

Dominic Pacyga says the timing suggests the bill got traction due to the recent passage, in 1983, of a national holiday honoring Martin Luther King, Jr., the slain civil rights activist. Lawmakers knew Martin Luther King Day would go into effect the next year, in 1986. Pacyga says the “white ethnic” community, including Poles, Jews, Italians, Greeks, Irish, wanted something similar. “There was a feeling the white ethnic community should also have a day, and in Illinois, it made sense to make it Pulaski Day, because the Polish community is so large in Chicago.”

Also, Jim Thompson was up for reelection in 1986, and this was seen back then as an effort to capture the white etnik “Reagan Democrats” vote. The Democrats may have passed the bill, but, as we say around here, governors own.

The holiday was made optional for schools in the 1990s and even CPS stays open now.

  26 Comments      


Don’t bogart that supply, my friends

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Medical marijuana growers, once banned from making political contributions, are now spending money to influence the expected legalization of recreational cannabis in Illinois in an effort to keep that market to themselves — at least temporarily.

Leading members of the industry have formed a political action committee, hired a former state senator as a lobbyist and begun contributing to political office holders.

The aim is to limit cultivation licenses being issued to competitors if recreational pot is legalized. Critics say that would create a market that benefits a small number of growers at the expense of retail marijuana stores and the public. And it runs counter to two new studies that find that demand will race past the current capacity.

* Press release…

Lawmakers sponsoring legislation to legalize adult-use cannabis in Illinois released a study today showing that demand is likely to far exceed what the state’s existing licensed growers can supply.

The study, commissioned by State Senator Heather Steans (D-Chicago) and State Rep. Kelly Cassidy, found that demand could rise as high as 550,000 pounds of cannabis per year, highlighting the need for Illinois to expand its existing medical cannabis market to both meet demand and to diversify, allowing for the participation of more minority business owners.

“For generations, government policy of mass incarceration increased racial disparities by locking up thousands of individuals for marijuana use or possession,” said State Senator Toi Hutchinson (D-Chicago Heights), the legislation’s chief co-sponsor in the Senate. “Now, as we are discussing legalization, it is of the utmost importance that we learn from these mistakes and acknowledge the lingering effects these policies continue to have in neighborhoods across this state. No conversation about legalization can happen absent that conversation.”

The study, performed by the consulting firm Freedman & Koski, examined the current adult-use market in Illinois and concluded that the existing industry could only supply between 35-54 percent of its demand.

“We’re not just trying to add diversity because it looks good. It’s not just diversity for diversity’s sake. It’s for equity’s sake; equity includes economics, it includes criminal justice,” said State Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth, who is the chief co-sponsor of the legislation in the House. “We’re talking about specific communities that need to be made whole. When this is all normal and nice and people are making money, we will not have succeeded if black people and other people of color are shut out.”

A clearer picture of demand also provides a better estimate of revenue; based on the study’s results, Illinois could expect approximately between $440,000 and $670,000 annually, not including the excise tax imposed on cannabis cultivators.

“While we should not expect cannabis sales to be a one-stop solution to Illinois’ financial woes, it is encouraging to see evidence that we are on the brink of establishing a thriving, robust industry to meet the demands of many Illinoisans who have until now been turning to the criminal market,” said Steans, the legislation’s Senate sponsor. “Prohibition does not work, and legalizing adult-use cannabis will bring those sales into the light and meet an obvious demand among the people of our state.”

The study cautions that initial regulatory costs will keep legal prices above illicit market prices, leading some consumers to continue making illegal purchases. Within the first few years, however, initial regulatory costs will decrease; economies of scale will push prices down; and the regulated market will capture or displace the criminal market, according to the report.

The study is here.

* Tribune

The legislators’ report is the second one to conclude that Illinois will have a marijuana shortage if the drug becomes legal for general use. Illinois NORML says the state has the most expensive marijuana in the country and is already seeing shortages of some products for medical customers.

The study suggested licensing more cultivators and allowing existing dispensaries to begin growing marijuana, since they have already been vetted and authorized by the state to handle the drug. […]

Lobbyist Tim McAnarney of Healthy and Productive Illinois, which opposes recreational marijuana, said the report’s projections suggest a burgeoning black market when the drug is legalized. Homegrown pot, which would be allowed under some legislation, could become a ruinous mainstay, he said.

“I would anticipate that once the product is legalized, once it’s being grown in people’s homes, increased use is going to be devastating to the youth of Illinois,” he said. “The more available it is, the more it’s going to be used.”

Dude. C’mon.

NORML’s study, still in its draft form, is here. Headline explained here.

  49 Comments      


Another day, another fact check

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Gov. Pritzker’s budget address

Our second option is to raise revenue with our current regressive flat income tax system and impose more flat taxes which fall disproportionately on the working poor and the middle class. This option could require imposing sales taxes on services, implementing a retirement tax, or raising the income tax overall by around 20%. Or all of the above. For a family earning $100,000, that means paying almost a thousand dollars more in income taxes, and their property taxes will continue their upward march as they always have.

* The BGA rated these claims “Mostly False”

But experts told us that extending the [sales] tax to cover an array of services, such as landscaping, hair styling and laundry, could not only bring in more revenue but help make the sales tax less regressive and benefit those with less disposable income by providing a cushion to lower rates overall.

“As income rises, the share of your expenditures that are spent on services generally rises,” said David Merriman, an economist who heads the Fiscal Futures Project at the University of Illinois. […]

Pritzker would be correct about harming the poor and middle class if Illinois simply did away with the retirement income break in its entirety. But that’s not how it’s done by most states.

In general, states that tax retirement income nonetheless shield some of it from taxation. That’s the case in Indiana and Michigan, which, like Illinois, have flat-rate income taxes. Both neighboring states exempt Social Security income, and Michigan also allows thousands of dollars in deductions on pension and annuity benefits. […]

In his budget speech, Pritzker held out his graduated tax push as the only way to inject more fairness into a tax system currently charging everyone at the same rate. But during last year’s primary campaign, Pritzker himself floated a revenue-raising plan to make the single-rate system more progressive that would require legislative approval but no constitutional change.

Lots of woulda, coulda, shoulda in there.

* This is what the governor’s office sent to the BGA…

• Governor Pritzker is advocating to change the tax system because the system of flat taxes in place today as currently structured is regressive. That hurts working people more than it hurts the wealthy. Illinois taxes are flat, so raising taxes within the current system would mean that the burden falls disproportionately on working people. Our goal is to finally put a comprehensive graduated income tax system in place.

• By its nature, today’s existing flat taxes are regressive because all taxpayers are paying the same rate, regardless of how much they earn.

• The middle class and those striving to get there in Illinois pay more of the percentage of their income in taxes than upper class Illinoisans. In fact, according to ITEP, Illinois ranks as the 8th least equitable system in the country: https://itep.org/whopays/

• Without a fair tax, low-income families pay a higher percentage of their income toward taxes. Overall, taking into account all taxes Illinois families pay, the lowest 20% of income-earners, or those making less than $21,800 a year, pay 14.4% of their income toward taxes. The top 1%, or those earning more than $537,800, pay only 7.4% of their income toward taxes.

• This becomes clear when you look at families’ entire tax burden.

• Property taxes: In Illinois, the lowest 20% of income-earners, or those making less than $21,800 a year, pay 6% of their income toward property taxes. The top 1%, or those earning more than $537,400 a year, pay only 2.1% of their income in property taxes.

    o Additionally, Illinois has some of the highest property taxes in the nation and studies have found that homeowners in low income areas are often paying the highest rates:https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/watchdog/taxdivide/

• Sales and excise taxes: In Illinois, the lowest 20% of income earners, or those making less than $21,800 a year, pay 4.8% of their income toward sales and excuse taxes. The top 1%, or those earning more than $537,400, pay only .8% of their income in sales and excise taxes.

• Between a flat income tax and property taxes, the tax burden already disproportionately falls on low and middle incomeIllinoisans.

• By its nature, a sales tax on services is also regressive because all taxpayers are paying the same rate, regardless of how much they earn. Raising taxes on services instead of a fair income tax would disproportionately impact the middle class and lower income families. Like the governor said, he does not support taxes that disproportionately impact low and middle income residents.

    o States that have expanded their sales tax base, like Wisconsin that you mentioned, already have a fair tax system so their tax burden is already more equitable than Illinois.

    ▪ Wisconsin ranks 34th least equitable on the ITEP study cited above, compared to Illinois at 8th least equitable. (A higher number means a state is more equitable.)

    • In order to tax retirement income in a progressive way, Illinois would need to amend the constitution to allow for a fair income tax. The governor is not pursuing taxing retirement income, but he is pursuing a fair income tax.

• During the campaign, the governor did not propose raising the flat tax with exemptions. He pointed to a plan already introduced by Sen. Don Harmon that attempts to create a progressive structure in a temporary way.

    o However, amending the constitution to allow for a fair income tax is a much more comprehensive and permanent approach that would not be subject to a court challenge, which could not only delay implementation but means that it may never be enacted. This is why the governor is focused on this effort and is working with the General Assembly for a vote this session.

    o What the governor proposed in his budget was a realistic long term solution to transform state finances and it could take effect in 18 months.

• Additionally, a fair income tax helps combat rising income inequality. For the past several decades, virtually all income growth has been made at the top income levels. A flat tax fails to capture that growth because the same rate applies to high and low income earners. While some states have taxcodes designed to tap into the wealth held by the top 1 percent, Illinois’ unfair flat tax rate continues to rely on taxes from those who have the least wealth in the state. A Fair Income Tax with lower rates for lower incomes and higher rates for higher incomes is needed to bring about tax fairness in Illinois and long-term, structural reform that produces stable and sustainable revenues and finally gets our fiscal house in order.

• A fair income tax also eases local property tax burdens and allows Illinois to invest more state dollars in public education. Increasing the state contribution to local governments and school districts eases the burden of local property taxes. According to the most recent data available from the National Center for Education Statistics, Illinois contributed just 24.9 percent of the total cost of public education in the 2014-2015 school year. Nationally, the average state contribution to elementary and secondary education is 46.6 percent.

o Neighboring states with a fair income tax system contribute a greater share of the overall cost of public education than Illinois:

    • Iowa contributes 53.5 percent of the total cost to funding public education,
    • Kentucky contributes 54.9 percent of the total cost to funding public education,
    • Missouri contributes 32.5 percent of the total cost to funding public education, and
    • Wisconsin contributes 45.9 percent of the total cost to funding public education.

• Finally, Governor Pritzker will work with the legislature to advance a fair tax amendment this session. As the discussion on the amendment moves forward, the rate structure will be negotiated with the General Assembly before a vote takes place so the public has a full and transparent understanding of the way forward.

The inevitable court challenges of high exemptions for retirees and graduated exemptions for everyone else are the administration’s best points. Tax hikes like those could be tied up in court for years and years.

Your thoughts?

  44 Comments      


Today’s lesson: Always listen to Scott Kennedy when it comes to numbers

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Everyone saw headlines like these last week…

* Tuesday, February 26, 5:25 pm: Chicago On Pace For Record Low Turnout In Mayoral Election: Barring a late surge in voting, that puts Chicago on pace for a turnout of about 30 percent to 32 percent, the worst municipal election turnout since 2007, when the city set a record low of 33 percent turnout.

* Tuesday, February 26, 11:44pm: Chicago appears to set voting record for low turnout

* Wednesday, February 27, 11:05 am: Low voter turnout attributed to disillusionment with leaders, drop in interest from midterms: That anemic total ranks among the lowest turnout levels recorded in a city election since it was 33 percent in 2007, when Richard M. Daley won his sixth and final term.

* Wednesday, February 27, 6:22 pm: Too Many Candidates, Poor Youth Turnout Blamed for Low Vote Totals in Chicago

* Scott Kennedy, however, was urging caution…


* And he was right…



* And those mail-in ballots are having an impact

As more mail-in ballots from Tuesday’s election are counted, Ald. Roderick Sawyer (6th) has seen his already tenuous lead shrink even more.

Records from the Chicago Board of Elections show that, as of Friday, Sawyer — son of former Mayor Eugene Sawyer and head of the council’s Black Caucus — was holding onto 50.02 percent of the vote in the 6th Ward aldermanic race.

The combined tally of his two opponents — Richard Wooten and Deborah Foster-Bonner — was just four votes fewer than Sawyer’s 5,020 votes. Foster-Bonner was in second place, with more than 31 percent of the vote.

  11 Comments      


Poll: Lightfoot leads Preckwinkle 58-30

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Stand for Children IL PAC today released the results of the poll it commissioned for the Chicago mayoral run-off. The poll, conducted February 27-28, included 400 likely Chicago voters.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 58% of respondents chose Lori Lightfoot and 30% chose Toni Preckwinkle. 12% were undecided.

“Stand for Children has been going door to door to learn what Chicago voters believe the next mayor needs to do so that our schools best serve the children of this city, especially those who are traditionally overlooked and under-tapped because of their skin color, ZIP code, first language, or disability,” said Mimi Rodman, Stand IL PAC chairperson. “Both candidates have made education a priority of their campaigns. The question is which of them can truly deliver and put words into action.”

And if you didn’t know before, now you know why Preckwinkle is already up with negative TV ads. She has to drag Lightfoot down to her own level before she can build herself up.

* Be very careful with these crosstabs because the sample size is on the small side…

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently completed a survey of likely April 2019 voters in the City of Chicago, sponsored by Stand for Children. The survey shows Lori Lightfoot begins the race for Mayor with a commanding lead over Toni Preckwinkle. Both candidates are highly recognized and viewed favorably, but more than half of voters say they will back Lightfoot in April.

Some of the specific findings of the survey include the following:

    • Both candidates are viewed favorably by a majority of voters. Sixty-four percent view Lightfoot favorably and 53 percent have a favorable opinion of Preckwinkle. However, Preckwinkle also has a greater number of detractors. While only ten percent of voters view Lightfoot unfavorably, more than one-third have an unfavorable opinion of Preckwinkle (37%).

    • Voters favor Lightfoot over Preckwinkle by nearly a two-to-one margin. As shown in Figure 1, 58 percent of voters say they will support Lightfoot in the upcoming April election, while thirty percent back Toni Preckwinkle and 12 percent remain undecided.

Lightfoot leads among essentially every major subgroup of the Chicago electorate, including:

    o 60% of women and 56% of men;
    o 54% of voters under age 50, 68% of those aged 50-64, and 55% of those age 65 and over;
    o 60% of college-educated voters and 55% of those without a four-year degree;
    o 62% of liberals, 55% of moderates, and 54% of conservatives; and
    o 62% of white voters, 59% of Latinos, and a 49% plurality of African-Americans. Lightfoot’s 49% to 40% lead among African-Americans is one of her narrowest of any demographic group.

Lightfoot also wins majority support from the backers of every major candidate that was defeated in the primary election – including a 54% to 38% margin of support among those who backed Bill Daley.

Survey Methodology: From February 27-28, 2019, FM3 completed 400 telephone interviews (on landlines and cellphones) with randomly-selected Chicago voters likely to participate in the April 2019 election. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. Due to rounding, not all results will sum to 100%.

* By the way, I was out with some folks having dinner Saturday night and one of them, a Chicago resident, received a live polling call. The pollster tested negative messages on both candidates.

I took some quick notes. The pollster tested Preckwinkle’s tax increases, an allegation that she’d made the county’s healthcare system worse, took money from Ed Burke, was a Joe Berrios ally and is a party boss who took TIF developer money.

Lightfoot, the recipients were told, made money representing big corporations, was censured over a deportation and is a faux reformer. Lightfoot pretends to be an outsider, but took appointments from Daley and Emanuel.

I don’t know who was behind that particular poll, but I assume everybody and their sister is in the field these days.

  67 Comments      


You’re on your own, boys and girls

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

A lobbyist who works for a business-related organization asked me a question the other day that I’ve been hearing a lot lately: “Who’s going to be the stopper now?”

What he meant was, who in the legislative process can be counted on these days to help derail bills which are deemed hostile to business interests?

The reason for the question was pretty obvious. Before this year, the last time House Speaker Michael Madigan allowed a minimum wage increase through his chamber that he knew would be signed into law was 13 years ago. And that bill only increased the minimum wage by a mere 25 cents an hour each year for four years. This year’s legislation that he supported will raise the minimum wage by $2.75 an hour in just 12 months starting next Jan. 1 and then eventually go all the way up to $15 an hour.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker set the tone for the spring session by jamming that bill through both chambers and now business types are reeling and searching for a way to at least slow down the rest of this progressive train.

It may eventually happen on its own. Pritzker has a super-ambitious legislative agenda and legislators could simply grow weary. Anyone who’s been around this game a while has seen this play out time and time again.

But that most certainly isn’t the case now. Pritzker has the momentum and he knows it and appears intent on trying to use it to his full advantage.

The simple truth is, business groups lost the 2018 election. Badly. And elections have consequences.

Some folks had argued as far back as last summer that business leaders should step up and take a role in shaping the debate over a potential minimum wage increase.

The wage regionalization argument didn’t just come out of nowhere. It has its roots in a New York bill signed into law back in 2016 which put Upstate and the suburbs on a slower path to $15 an hour than New York City. And Illinois already has mandated regionalized pay scales within its prevailing wage laws. A case could be made that a system which works pretty well for workers in the trades should be good for all workers.

So, the argument went, force candidate Pritzker to address the regionalization concept whenever he traveled to Downstate campaign events. Inject the concept into the broader public debate early in the process, long before any final legislative plans were set in stone.

But that idea was ultimately rejected, either because the groups were dead-set against any minimum wage hike and were fully supporting Gov. Bruce Rauner’s re-election, or out of fear or inertia.

And then Pritzker won by 16 points and interpreted his victory as an overwhelming mandate for progressive change, rather than as others saw it: Yet another repudiation election inextricably connected to yet another national “wave.”

The most dejected Illinoisan on election night in 2016 wasn’t a Hillary Clinton supporter, it was Gov. Rauner. Up until then, he had privately bragged that the Democrats had better get used to having him around because Clinton was going to win and that surely meant a backlash in 2018 and he’d be re-elected.

Oops.

And here we are. Speaker Madigan has not shown any willingness to at least overtly resume his role as the guy who would help out business interests in a pinch. Senate President John Cullerton is a liberal who believes in these things. And once a progressive bill gets to the governor’s desk, he’s gonna sign that thing as sure as you’re born.

If they’re going to have any success at beating back some of these bills, the business lobbyists will have to fully engage in the committee process rather than count on a single person to have their backs.

The simple fact is that some Democratic committee chairs could be more amenable to arguments than their committee membership.

And the governor’s inexplicable lack of legislative staff could work to the opponents’ advantage. Pritzker doesn’t yet have enough people on staff to read all these bills, let alone work them.

Most of the big stuff that gets a lot of attention and is prominently pushed by Pritzker is probably going to fly. Maybe not everything, but most. The rest of the progressive agenda will come down to endless fights in the trenches.

The left has enthusiasm, a governor and a favorable national political climate at its back. The other side has process experience and the natural fear of unknown consequences.

* Related…

* Rent control gains momentum after Chicago voters again give it thumbs up

  37 Comments      


Who’s less popular than Madigan and Trump in Illinois?

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My Crain’s Chicago Business column

We all know House Speaker Michael Madigan is vastly unpopular in Illinois. His record-long tenure, the sorry state of Illinois’ finances and the fact that Republicans spent tens of millions of dollars to make sure voters connected him to all our troubles certainly contributed.

But according to a poll taken in December, pharmaceutical companies are even more unpopular than Madigan.

The poll of 635 likely voters taken by Blue Sun Campaigns found 57 percent of Illinoisans say they have an unfavorable opinion of Madigan, while 65 percent have an unfavorable opinion of pharmaceutical companies. The pharmaceutical companies are even more unpopular in Illinois than President Donald Trump, whose unfavorable rating here was 62 percent in December.

Imagine that.

This should be no surprise since we’ve all read stories about skyrocketing prescription drug prices. There have been high-profile exposés like the ones about Martin “Pharma Bro” Shkreli, who jacked up the price of a vital drug for some HIV/AIDS patients by 5,000 percent.

And who could miss the many stories about diabetics who have cut back or stopped taking insulin altogether because prices have more than doubled since 2012?

The poll found almost a third of Illinoisans (32 percent) said they or a family member had “struggled to afford prescription drugs” in the past year. And another 27 percent said they or a family member hadn’t filled a prescription in the past year because the price was too high.

So, it’s probably no surprise that

Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.

* Related…

* Drug industry takes heat in legislative hearing over spiraling prices

  18 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Monday, Mar 4, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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Reader comments closed for the weekend

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rolling Stone

Johnny Cash would have turned 87 this week. To honor the Man in Black on his birthday, folk singer Todd Snider unveiled the new single “The Ghost of Johnny Cash” from his forthcoming album Cash Cabin Sessions, Vol. 3, which will be released March 15th via Aimless Records/Thirty Tigers.

The dark ballad was co-written by Snider and John Carter Cash, the son of Johnny Cash, who died on September 12th, 2003, and June Carter Cash, who passed away just months before her husband in May of the same year.

Snider recorded his acoustic-driven new effort at Johnny Cash’s Cash Cabin Studio (now owned by John Carter) in Hendersonville, Tennessee. The album’s latest release, anchored by sparse, country-blues picking, nods to a recording session at the same studio a few years earlier, when Loretta Lynn made her 2016 album Full Circle. In an interview with Garden & Gun shortly after her album’s release, Lynn claimed she saw the deceased Cash walk into the studio while she was singing.

* Here it is

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Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Preckwinkle launches first negative TV ad of the runoff

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Lori Lightfoot says she’s running as the change candidate, but the only thing she’s trying to change right now is her record of looking out for powerful interests.

Lightfoot is a wealthy corporate attorney who represented Wall Street banks. During her time as a corporate attorney, she was reprimanded for misconduct after allegations of abuse of power.

Lightfoot defended a Wall Street bank being sued for racial discrimination and Republican politicians trying to protect their power.

Lightfoot, who likes to talk about how she is the “change” candidate, was appointed over and over and over to political appointments by politicians Rahm Emanuel and Richard Daley. Is that change? In those roles, she overruled her own investigators to justify police shootings.

So today, the campaign for Toni Preckwinkle released an ad to tell the truth about Lightfoot’s record. Because the only thing Lori Lightfoot is trying to change is her story.

You just knew something like this was coming soon. Lightfoot has gained serious momentum from her first round win. Preckwinkle has to stop it as soon as she possibly can before the momentum gets out of control.

* Rate the ad

  23 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tom Kacich regularly answers questions from readers. Here’s his latest

“So, using the math in the plastic bag article our new governor (J.B. Pritzker) states there are 400,000,000 (that’s 400 million bags) the stores provide each year in Illinois. Seriously?”

The city of Chicago has a 7-cent bag tax (from which the city gets 5 cents and the retailer keeps 2 cents).

The city collected $5.6 million in 2017 and $5.9 million in 2018 from the bag tax.

Since Chicago’s population is about 21 percent of the state’s population, Pritzker’s budget team probably multiplied $5.9 million times 5, calculated for some loss from consumer behavior (primarily customers opting for reusable bags or no bags) and arrived at approximately $20 million.

That’s probably close, but part of the proposed state bag tax will be retained by retailers, like it is in the city. And, man, that’s a lot of bags. Whew.

* The Question: Do you support a state tax on plastic shopping bags? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please…


survey services

  33 Comments      


Stormy Daniels to protest Illinois tax that funds programs for sexual assault victims

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Peoria Journal Star

Stormy Daniels, the adult film star who received payment after claiming she had a sexual encounter with now-President Donald Trump, will appear at Deja Vu Showgirls nightclub, 3220 Lake Plaza Drive, on March 22. […]

Earlier that day, Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, will take part in a protest against the Live Adult Entertainment Facility Surcharge Act, a “sin tax” that was enacted in 2014, at the Illinois State Capitol.

Wait. What?

Money raised by that tax goes to the Sexual Assault Services and Prevention Fund, which assists victims of sexual assault and helps pay for sexual assault prevention programs.

* Some strip clubs appear to have been dodging the tax for years. From April of 2018

A state law sometimes irreverently called a “sin tax” requires all strip clubs that sell alcohol to collect $3 from each patron or pay a flat fee based on income that goes into a fund to support rape crisis centers.

But a survey by the BND of active strip clubs in Illinois affected by the Live Adult Entertainment Facility Surcharge Act found at least 58 clubs open for business — which is 19 more than paid into the fund in 2016.

When the Live Adult Entertainment Facility Surcharge Act was enacted effective in 2014, supporters estimated that more than $1 million per year would be collected, but last year, about half — $532,000 — was collected, the state reported.

While clubs regularly open and close down, making a precise, year-to-year comparison difficult, the BND’s total reflects an increase of 49 percent over the number of clubs that actually paid last year and 29 percent over 2015.

Based on the per-club average collected in 2015-16, or $11,745 per club, non-payment potentially cost rape crisis centers tens of thousands of dollars in 2016 and 2015.

Sen. Toi Hutchinson, who introduced the legislation, told me today that Daniels and others are “welcome to protest and identify another source of funds to go to sexual assault centers across the state. They still need help.”

* I was just in a conversation about Daniels the other night. I did not express my love for her. But I’d forgotten that she claimed she and her daughter had been threatened if she didn’t stay quiet. I can definitely understand her anger.

However, I don’t understand her involvement in this protest aside from the possible monetary benefits of shilling for the interests of strip club owners while on a tour of strip clubs.

…Adding… From comments…

Maybe a reporter could ask her about the statement she made just a few months ago- Stormy Daniels: I’ll seek new lawyer if Avenatti domestic violence allegations prove true. {sigh}

She was willing to fire her attorney if the allegations were true, then why is she protesting a funding source that helps victims? Or maybe a reporter could ask if she is willing to donate a portion of her IL profits to fund the victim services.

  15 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Unions want Gov. Pritzker to stop WIU layoffs

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WIU just announced a ton of layoffs

132 lay off notices were sent Friday

* 89 were civil service positions (plus nine employees who have had their retirement contract term lengths reduced)
* 2 were Admin positions
* 29 were faculty members
* 12 were Academic Support Personnel […]

* Most Admin and ASP personnel, depending on the length of service, will have 6 months notice, but some ASP’s are contractual and their notices span 3-9 months depending on service.
* Unit A (tenured and tenure track) faculty get a full year notice. They will teach the 2019-2020 academic year, and be complete by the end of Spring 2020 semester (May 19, 2020)
* Unit B faculty (non-tenure track) will finish the semester (May 14, 2019).

* WEEK TV

“As a result of the current budget situation, including decreased enrollment, it is necessary to reduce our expenditures, including position reductions across the University. We have pledged to work with employees to provide career counseling and assistance with employment searches,” said WIU President Jack Thomas in a statement.

The university has struggled with declining enrollment for several years. A last-ditch effort, #BuyIntoWIU, sought to stave off the layoffs.

“Unfortunately, 20 years of state disinvestment and 12 years of unimpeded enrollment decline have brought Western Illinois to the point we are today. In order to avoid a potential catastrophe in the fall when the university may be unable to meet payroll, WIU caused a catastrophe now, the largest layoff in its history,” said Bill Thompson, president of the WIU chapter of the University Professionals of Illinois union. “This announcement is devastating on all fronts. We encourage the university to rediscover its mission and head toward a future that does not include layoffs and all the havoc they will bring to our community. Our union will protect our members’ rights during these layoffs and, as always, help lead the way into the future.”

* From the Illinois Federation of Teachers…

IFT President Dan Montgomery said:

    “After years of intentionally starving our public colleges and universities of critical resources in order to push a rejected political agenda, we are finally seeing the fruits of Bruce Rauner’s labor coming to bear. The cuts announced today will be devastating to Western Illinois University. We know that Governor Pritzker and the state legislature recognize the importance of undoing Rauner’s damage and appreciate the recent budget proposal to increase investment in higher education. Unfortunately, this funding won’t come soon enough. We strongly support our members who serve students at WIU and join them in calling for an emergency appropriation to help their community through this difficult chapter. It is critical that Western Illinois University remain strong not only for the faculty and students who call it home, but for the broader region that relies on this vital economic engine.”

UPI President John Miller said:

    “For the third time, Western Illinois University has announced layoffs of faculty, staff and employees. These cuts will have a negative impact on WIU and devastate families and the broader communities of western Illinois. We join with more than 4,000 students, supporters, and alumnae who have signed the “Buy Into Western Illinois University” petition to call on Governor Pritzker to quickly appoint a new WIU Board of Trustees and support an emergency appropriation for the University. Emergency funding would mitigate these cuts and begin to undo the harm caused by the chronic underfunding of our public universities over the last two decades. Further, Western Illinois University needs to develop a new vision and direction fulfill its mission as a regional, comprehensive institution where students earn a quality degree and secure a bright future. Our students, communities, and employees deserve nothing less.”

I’ve asked the Pritzker administration for comment.

*** UPDATE *** Pritzker administration…

After years of cuts, the governor has proposed increasing funding for higher education and is working to pass a fair tax so the state can make investments in higher education for years to come. The administration has been in contact with stakeholders like IFT to see how best to address their immediate needs for their members and students.

I’ve asked the IFT for comment.

* Related…

* WIU Program Elimination Review Committee Makes Recommendations: There is a list of 18 academic programs at Western Illinois University being considered for elimination. A report reviewing each of them has been turned over to the administration and decisions are expected soon.

* Effort to allow more college students to unionize gains steam in Springfield

  39 Comments      


Not as easy as it sounds

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Pritzker on CBS 2

“We’re shortly going to be having conversations with leadership about rate structure, for the graduated income tax, to make sure we have a fair tax system. That’s the very first thing we’re going to go after over the next week or two, we’ll be having those conversations,” Pritzker said. “I’ve said all along that you need to negotiate the rates and the breakpoints for a new tax system in the state so that middle class taxpayers will pay less. So we can offer a real estate tax break for people all across the state. And that’s what I’m going to do.”

One place that really, truly needs property tax relief is the south suburbs. But I’m not sure if more state money is the sole answer there. Something needs to be done about the way property tax money is distributed in that county and the region needs some serious economic development assistance.

* From Crain’s, here’s the tax bill on houses sold for $330,000

* Tax bill on houses sold for $270,000

* Tax bill on houses sold for $115,000

* One more

In Wheaton, which is about as far west of downtown Chicago as Flossmoor is south, a house on Burning Trail that sold Feb. 12 for $510,000 has a property tax bill of $11,240, or less than half the Flossmoor home’s $23,420 bill. The same distance north of the Loop, in Highland Park, a house on St. Charles Place that sold for $500,000 on Feb. 20 has a property tax bill of about $13,200.

* Crain’s

Tax rates in south Cook County municipalities are, on average, about twice those in western and northern towns. […]

A key reason for south Cook County’s higher property taxes is the loss of hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the Chicago and Northwest Indiana areas in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, which has shifted the tax burden onto homeowners. In the years after the housing bust, south Cook County was hit hard by foreclosures. At the height of the crisis, about 1 in 20 homes were in foreclosure in many south suburbs—Calumet City, Hazel Crest, Markham and Olympia Fields among them—compared with a countywide peak of about 1 in 33, according to the Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University. The foreclosure crisis left homes empty or decrepit, further shifting the tax burden to the owners of viable homes.

And then the state made it worse by giving seniors a huge tax break that left the few remaining residents paying full freight.

  32 Comments      


Rate Lightfoot’s new TV ad

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Chicago mayoral candidate Lori Lightfoot released her first TV ad of the runoff election, “Change.” Filmed primarily at Lightfoot’s election night celebration, the ad captures the grassroots momentum that propelled Lightfoot to first place and highlights the importance of electing an independent reformer to bring needed change all across the city. This is Lightfoot’s second TV ad. Lightfoot released her first TV ad, “Light,” on February 6th.

Toni Preckwinkle started running a TV ad on Thursday.

* The spot

* Script…

“I traveled across the city and saw people struggling with repossessed cars and rising rent,” says Lightfoot in the ad. “With underfunded neighborhood schools and gun violence on their blocks. I know, on a deeply personal level, that we need change. This election is about demanding an independent, accountable City Hall that serves the people, not the political machine.”

  23 Comments      


Human error? Try abject stupidity, Amtrak

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Human error caused the switching system issue that brought rail traffic to an almost standstill at Union Station Thursday, affecting tens of thousands of Amtrak and Metra passengers, Amtrak said Friday.

“The root cause was human error in the process of deploying a server upgrade in our technology facility that supports our dispatch control system at Chicago Union Station,” Amtrak said in a statement. “We failed to provide the service that Amtrak customers, Metra commuters and the general public expect of us. We own the system. We will fix this problem.”

Metra and Amtrak service returned to normal for Friday morning’s rush but it was an entirely different scene at Union Station on Thursday, as more than 60,000 Chicago-area commuters either faced crowds and long delays.

* From Sen. Richard Durbin…

I talked to [Amtrak CEO and President Richard Anderson] this morning and in blunt terms, asked him what happened in Chicago yesterday? Why did thousands of commuters see their service interrupted? He was honest and direct, and admitted that Amtrak made a series of errors.

The most important error they made was to decide to do a server upgrade to their computers during peak hours of service. This should be done in the middle of the night when only a handful of trains are running. Along with that, a worker fell on a circuit board, which turned off the computers and lead to the interruption of service that went on all day long.

Today, Amtrak issued a public apology to the people who were inconvenienced in Chicago yesterday. Mr. Anderson also told me there will be changes made when it comes to computer programming and upgrades in the future. But my job in Washington, along with Senator Tammy Duckworth, is to ensure that these federal agencies are held accountable. Amtrak failed yesterday, but I appreciate their honesty.

Emphasis added because… holy moly, how irresponsibly stupid can you get?

  36 Comments      


Clean Energy Jobs Act introduced

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Utility Dive

The Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition on Thursday announced a comprehensive clean energy bill that would bring the state to 100% renewable energy by 2050 with a carbon free power sector by 2030.

The Clean Energy Jobs Act (SB 2132) calls for the procurement of at least 16,500 MW of solar and 7,300 MW of wind by 2031 to reach 50% renewables. It’s divided into four “pillars” — reaching 100% renewables by 2050, gaining a 100% carbon free power sector by 2030, drastically reducing emissions from the transportation sector and creating thousands of clean energy jobs. […]

The state’s original clean energy mandate was to generate 25% of its electricity from renewables by 2025. Gov. J.B. Pritzker ran his campaign in part on doubling the mandate, making the new bill, introduced one month into his term, a more ambitious undertaking. […]

The bill also aims to drastically reduce emissions by expanding electric vehicle infrastructure and incentives, with a goal to reduce pollution levels equivalent to getting 1 million gas vehicles off the road. It also directs the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) to place more stringent emissions caps on power plants ramping them down each year until they reach zero emissions in 2030.

* Natural Resources Defense Council

Putting more renewables on the electric grid also makes it easier to clean up our transportation sector, which is now the largest source of carbon pollution in Illinois. Although electric vehicles already pollute less than gasoline-powered vehicles, as the electricity we use to charge those vehicles gets cleaner, we can reduce pollution even more. At the same time, electric vehicles paired with smart charging technologies can help our electric grid run more efficiently. The Clean Energy Jobs Act aims to take advantage of these opportunities while removing the equivalent of one million gasoline-powered vehicles off the road.

New incentives and infrastructure to support electric vehicles would help spur this process, including support for “light duty” electric vehicles like cars and trucks, which can save drivers money and create 70 percent less pollution than similar gas-powered vehicles. It would also include incentives to transition towards electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, which is critical in part because many of today’s heavy-duty vehicles run on diesel and cause serious health problems for people in communities with heavy truck traffic. The bill also pairs electric vehicle incentives with smart charging programs to ensure that electric vehicles can charge at “off-peak” hours (such as late at night) when electricity is relatively cheap, plentiful and clean. Finally: in addition to expanding electric vehicles, Illinois should expand non-motorized transportation options like walking, biking and mass transit, which could be included in a capital bill.

That would certainly cut in to Motor Fuel Tax receipts.

* KFVS TV

If passed, an estimated 40 million solar panels and 2,500 wind turbines would be installed, adding an estimated $30 billion to Illinois infrastructure according to the release.

* Solar dot points

* Requires that 45% of power come from renewables by 2030 and 100% by 2050;
* Continues growing rooftop solar by expanding the existing Adjustable Block Program and rebate program to compensate homeowners and businesses for adding solar to the grid;
* Ensures the continued growth of community solar;
* Expands the Illinois Solar for All program, which works to provide access to solar for low- and moderate-income communities;
* Requires utilities to engage in a transparent and comprehensive distribution system planning process to identify opportunities to use customer-sited distributed solar and storage to improve grid reliability and reduce grid maintenance costs; and
* Requires the Illinois Power Authority to procure capacity to meet the state’s resource adequacy requirements, thereby mitigating PJM market rules that serve to prop up fossil fuel plants and delay emission reductions.

* Low income help

The new bill would incentivize “on-site distributed generation in projects that are 100% low-income subscriber owned, including low-income households, not-for-profit organizations, and affordable housing owners, as well as projects 100% owned by households located in environmental justice communities,” as a bill summary notes. […]

The bill creates an electric vehicle program targeted specifically at low-income communities, including through low-cost electric vehicle car-sharing and “carbon free last mile” programs where electric shuttles or cars, bikes and scooters would be available to help commuters get from home and work to public transit hubs.

And the bill calls for a “just transition” to help communities and workers where coal plants may close or the energy transition otherwise has an economic impact. […]

The bill would create “energy empowerment zones” with tax incentives and state economic development resources aimed at supporting workers and communities where coal plants close, and cleaning up and reusing the sites. […]

The bill calls for the creation of a $25 million clean jobs workforce hub, wherein labor unions, employers, frontline organizations and other stakeholders would work together to train and provide direct assistance to communities of color and underserved communities in accessing renewable energy-related jobs.

It also calls for an “Expanding Clean Energy Entrepreneurship and Contractor Incubator” program to provide support to “disadvantaged businesses and contractors,” including through low-cost lending and help with insurance and other financial requirements.

* Citizens Utility Board…

The Clean Energy Jobs Act is the only legislation in Springfield focused on keeping a lid on energy costs for Illinois utility customers. For instance, it would defend against a threat by out-of-state fossil fuel power generators that want to slam most Illinois consumers with higher electricity bills. Because the declining price of clean energy has eaten into their profits, for years now those generators have been on a campaign to change the rules of the PJM capacity market, undermine Illinois’ successful energy reforms, and make most electric customers in Illinois pay more for power they don’t need. To answer that threat, the Clean Energy Jobs Act would put the Illinois Power Agency fully in charge of the state’s clean energy policy, creating the opportunity to save consumers money while greatly expanding renewable energy investment in the state.

The Clean Energy Jobs Act would boost gas and electric efficiency programs, reduce peak electricity demand, and take advantage of the falling cost of wind and solar power. Such improvements are always good for consumers, proving that Illinois can keep utility bills in check as it moves down the path to 100 percent clean energy.

* This is a brand new bill and it will undoubtedly be amended further

Although the bills have many sponsors and much support across the state, Castro addressed the concerns with how ambitious they appear.

“This legislation outlines our goals, these are not set deadlines,” Castro said. “We want to strive to meet these goals, but most importantly we want to see progress in our state by using more renewable energy, even if it may take a little longer than expected.”

Rep. Grant Wehrli (R-Naperville) is the lone Republican sponsor.

…Adding… Under review

A spokeswoman for Gov. J.B. Pritzker said in an emailed statement: “Governor Pritzker applauds the Clean Jobs Coalition’s previous work, and looks forward to reviewing the bill.”

* Related…

* How this ComEd power play is blocking an archrival - The Chicago electricity giant is taking extraordinary steps to kill a deal to sell 20 miles of high-voltage lines in Rochelle to the nation’s largest wind-power generator. Here’s why.

* As Electric Cars Shift Into Mainstream, The Corn Belt Begins To Ponder A Post-Ethanol Future

* With smart grid completed, ComEd budgets as if it never happened - A new four-year capital plan shows ComEd spending even more per year than it did on its smart grid. That means higher rates, but this time ComEd is short on specifics of what we’re paying for.

  16 Comments      


Illinois population down about 6,000 residents since 2008

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois Policy Institute last December

Illinois’ people problem is worsening. And it’s driven by residents leaving for greener pastures.

From July 2017 to July 2018, Illinois’ population shrank by more than 45,000 people, behind only New York for the worst raw population decline in the nation, according to data released Dec. 19 by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The largest driver of Illinois’ population decline? More people are leaving for other states than arriving from other states. Over the year, Illinois lost 114,000 people on net to other states, or roughly 313 residents per day.

* That sort of focus is driving pretty much all media coverage. Tribune

Mary Miller lived in Illinois for all of her 44 years until July, when she and her family left their north suburban Wauconda home to resettle in Florida.

“It’s taxes. It’s corruption. It’s politics,” she said. “And I don’t mean Republicans or Democrats, it’s all of them.”

Miller wasn’t alone in her departure from the state. Illinois has declined in population for the fifth year in a row, losing an estimated 45,116 residents from 2017 to 2018, according to the latest Census Bureau data released Wednesday.

That was a greater drop than the previous year, when Illinois lost about 40,000 people — as well as its spot as the fifth-largest state in the nation to Pennsylvania.

* But nobody seems to be looking at the overall growth and decline rates. Pew Charitable Trusts

All but two states—Illinois and West Virginia—gained residents over the past decade, even as population growth nationally continued to slow. Following the long-term trend, the United States in 2018 grew at its weakest pace in more than 80 years, with nine states losing residents. Population trends matter to both state government finances and economic growth. […]

Illinois and West Virginia were the only states with fewer residents in 2018 than a decade earlier. West Virginia lost about 34,500 people since 2008, or the equivalent of 0.19 percent a year, and has recorded population losses for the past six years. Illinois’ growth rate was virtually flat over the same period, shedding about 6,000 residents since 2008 and losing population for the past five years. […]

More recently, population change from July 2017 to July 2018 shows… The nine states that lost population were West Virginia (‑0.62 percent), Illinois (‑0.35 percent), Alaska (‑0.32 percent), Hawaii (‑0.26 percent), New York (-0.25 percent), Louisiana (‑0.23 percent), Wyoming (‑0.21 percent), Mississippi (-0.1 percent), and Connecticut (‑0.03 percent). Losses in each over the past year were driven by people moving out of the state, and West Virginia also had more deaths than births.

The problem is other states are growing while we are staying flat or even shrinking. And that is a real problem. Also, those 2018 numbers are not good.

  48 Comments      


The need is obvious, paying for it is the issue

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Arguing that we need to invest in infrastructure is easy peasy

It’s happening all over the state, according to Craig Fink, an engineer with Tazewell County and former president of the Illinois Association of County Engineers. And it could get worse.

The association tracks how many miles of roads are having maintenance deferred or suspended all together. The analysis shows this year nearly half of their roads, 47 percent, will suffer from some form of neglect. […]

That’s more than double the bad roads there were five years ago.

* The big argument is how to pay for it. Sun-Times editorial

Legislators in Springfield, both Democrats and Republicans, love to stress that Illinois must do what’s necessary to remain competitive with neighboring states. So consider this:

In 2017 in Indiana, Gov. Eric Holcomb approved a 10-cent-per-gallon hike in the state’s gasoline tax to pay for infrastructure repairs and construction, and another penny per gallon was added last year. In 2015 in Iowa, Gov. Terry Branstad signed legislation to raise the gasoline tax a dime per gallon. Currently in Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine is proposing an 18-cents-per-gallon increase. In Michigan, a bipartisan group of former legislative leaders has called for a gasoline tax hike of 47 cents a gallon — to pay for infrastructure — over nine years. And Wisconsin’s new governor, Tony Evers, has signaled that he favors a gasoline tax hike there to pay for infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the buying power of Illinois’ motor fuel tax is about half of what it was, in real dollars, when James R. Thompson was governor.

* And

Last week, the Metropolitan Planning Council hosted “Paying by the mile: A new way to fund transportation,” a roundtable comprised of experts exploring mileage-based user fees, a per-mile road user charge that helps fund transportation infrastructure and maintenance.

On the panel was Maureen Bock of the Oregon Department of Transportation and program manager of OReGO, Oregon’s road user charge program; Nate Bryer, vice president of innovation at Azuga, a GPS and fleet tracking data company providing the technology for multiple mileage-based user fee programs; and Audrey Wennink, director of transportation at MPC. Moderating the panel was David Schaper, correspondent on NPR’s National Desk based in Chicago.

Bryer opened the conversation with a presentation on Azuga’s technology and where it’s been tested. Azuga has assisted in developing user-friendly account management systems for programs in California, Colorado, and Washington, among other places. Bryer discussed how Azuga’s technology helps provide a tool to determine road user charging by capturing miles driven by users, in addition to providing transportation planning data. “The fuel tax is an elegant tax, probably one of the most elegant taxes known to man,” Bryer said. “The flaw is that it’s single use.”

Yeah, but a House Democrat recently tabled a bill to institute a pilot project because of all the heat he received.

* Meanwhile

Saying the state’s newest constitutional amendment doesn’t reduce Cook County’s home rule powers to tax and spend, a Cook County judge has rejected a bid by a coalition of road building contractors and others to force the county to spend $250 million more on transportation projects.

On Feb. 22, Cook County Circuit Judge Peter Flynn granted the county’s motion to dismiss the lawsuit brought by the road builders’ coalition.

The lawsuit had challenged the county’s authority to reroute hundreds of millions dollars to the county’s Public Safety Fund, when the coalition said the so-called Safe Roads Amendment requires the county to spend on roads, bridges and other transportation-related infrastructure.

Judge Flynn, however, said the coalition’s interpretation of the Safe Roads Amendment’s mandates is flawed, as the drafters of the amendment did not craft the amendment in a way to reduce the ability of the county and other so-called “home rule” units of local government to allocate resources as local leaders deemed necessary.

“… The Constitution itself contains … a very specific means of limiting the powers of home rule units,” Judge Flynn wrote. “The Safe Roads Amendment simply does not use that means. Its drafters could have done so. They did not. Enough said.

“What is more, the drafters manifestly did not intend to do so. They themselves disclaimed, in the ballot summary given to voters, any intent to impair home rule powers. In this instance, their actions and their words coincided perfectly.”

…Adding… A vow to appeal…

A broad-based industry coalition vowed to appeal a Cook County Circuit Court judge’s dismissal of a case brought against Cook County for violations of the Safe Roads Amendment to the Illinois Constitution (Article IX, Section 11). The suit alleges that Cook County unlawfully diverts approximately $250 million annually in revenue collected from transportation-related taxes and fees. The County filed a motion to dismiss claiming that the plaintiffs lacked standing, and that Cook County is exempt from complying with the Safe Roads Amendment to the Illinois Constitution.

  14 Comments      


Should counties be assured representation on the Tollway board?

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rockford Register-Star editorial

Rockford has had representation on the Illinois Tollway board of directors for decades. The tollway is important to the region’s economic development efforts because it makes it easy to move goods to and from here, and especially from the airport, which is booming because of the growth of its cargo business.

Lawmakers voted Jan. 9 to end the terms of all nine tollway board members, including Earl Dotson Jr. of Rockford. The housecleaning came months after a series of stories by The Daily Herald reported that tollway contracts had gone to political insiders and that thousands of dollars had been spent to send staff members to banquets where tollway leaders were speakers. The newspaper uncovered other questionable practices as well.

Pritzker announced his choices for new directors Thursday. We’re disappointed that there wasn’t a person from Rockford among the picks, but we are impressed by the talent that has been selected.

“No matter where somebody is from, this tollway board was appointed by me with a focus on economic development. The tollway is just one feature of economic development, but a very important one,” Pritzker said.

* The Daily Herald plots out where the new suburban members live

The new tollway chairman is Will Evans, an electrical engineer who is the retired president of People’s Gas and North Shore Gas and now an energy consultant. The Skokie resident also is president of the Northwestern University Black Alumni Association.

Suburban representatives include former state Sen. Karen McConnaughay of Geneva; Western Springs Village President Alice Gallagher; Wheaton resident Stephen Davis, who is chairman of The Will Group; Chicagoland Speedway and Route 66 Raceway President Scott Paddock of Orland Park; and architect Cesar Santoy of Berwyn. Paddock is not related to the longtime owners of Paddock Publications, which publishes the Daily Herald.

Western Springs borders on the Central Tri-State Tollway, which is being widened.

“It’s important for someone who has a municipality along that stretch to advocate on behalf of all the municipalities,” Gallagher said. […]

Labor representatives include International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 President James Sweeney, a former tollway director; Chicago Regional Council of Carpenters executive Gary Perinar of Shorewood; and Chicago and Vicinity Laborers’ District Council Business Manager Jim Connolly of Palos Park.

So, you’ve got Cook (with five members), Kane, DuPage and Will. Winnebago is out and so is Lake County.

And if it’s important for Western Springs to have somebody on the board, what about Lake, which has been struggling to come to terms with an extension of Route 53 forever?

* Related…

* Gov. Pritzker returns Operating Engineers’ union leader Sweeney to Illinois Tollway Board: The union was an adamant opponent of Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s efforts to weaken organized labor’s power. While it backed Pritzker, the union-affiliated Fight Back Fund and the engineers’ Washington, D.C.-based affiliate gave more than $4.3 million to Republican state Sen. Sam McCann’s third-party run for governor in 2018, which was widely viewed as an effort to further weaken Rauner’s re-election chances.

  10 Comments      


Can everbody get this deal?

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I saw this the other day and thought it was odd. Airbnb appears to be holding out for a “voluntary agreement” before it pays taxes

A year after the Springfield City Council passed an ordinance that would tax online travel companies, the city says it hasn’t seen a dime from Airbnb. […]

About 5,000 people were hosted in Sangamon County homes through Airbnb in 2018, resulting in $449,000 in income, according to a press release sent by Airbnb last month. Only the hosts in Springfield — a majority of the stays — would be taxed. […]

Benjamin Breit, an Airbnb spokesperson, said Thursday that Airbnb believes the city’s code doesn’t capture platforms like Airbnb to collect and remit taxes on behalf of its operators. He added the company is “still more than willing” to enter into a voluntary tax agreement with city.

“Whenever the city is ready to move forward on an agreement, we look forward to collecting taxes on behalf of our Springfield hosts,” Breit wrote in an email.

Airbnb has agreements with Illinois cities like Evanston, Rockford and Oak Park to collect their portions of a lodging tax. It has had an agreement to collect the state of Illinois’ 6 percent lodging tax since 2015.

This is most definitely a thing with the company. Airbnb claims it has these sorts of agreements with over 275 state and local governments throughout the country.

* And the company boasted about these collections in a press release today, which is what reminded me of that SJ-R story above…

Airbnb, the world’s leading community-driven hospitality company, announced today the company remitted $12.7 million in tax revenue to the State of Illinois on behalf of its local hosts in 2018.

Collecting and remitting lodging taxes can be complicated and it is for this reason Airbnb has worked with hundreds of governments throughout the world to collect and remit taxes, making the process seamless and easy for hosts while contributing valuable revenue for local comptrollers and tax collectors. Illinois was one of the first local governments to partner with Airbnb, via an agreement in late 2015 authorizing the home sharing platform to collect and remit the Illinois Hotel Operators Occupation Tax.

While the state tax agreement was Airbnb’s first in Illinois, the platform has since partnered with local governments to collect and remit local occupancy taxes on behalf of hosts in Chicago, Cook County, Schaumburg, Oak Park, Rockford, Naperville and Evanston. Airbnb is the only short-term rental platform currently that collects Illinois state taxes.

  6 Comments      


Open thread

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* You ever have one of those mornings when absolutely nothing seems to go right? Yeah. That’s me today. Talk amongst yourselves, but keep it Illinois-centric and be nice to each other. Thanks.

  35 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Friday, Mar 1, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


  Comments Off      


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