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April revenue stunner: $1.5 billion higher than expected - FY19 hole filled - Pritzker cancels planned pension holiday

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

* This session just took a big turn for the better…

May 7, 2019

Dear Leaders, Appropriations Chairpersons and Appropriations Spokespersons:

We write to share the good news that Illinois received significantly stronger-than-expected revenues in April.

More than $4.1 billion in individual and corporate income tax revenues were deposited into the General Funds in the month of April 2019, up $1.14 billion or 38% from April 2018 income tax deposits of $2.999 billion. This is also more than $1.5 billion more than internally projected for April 2019.

A number of factors likely contributed to this increase, including the performance of the stock market, better federal reimbursement for Medicaid, the elimination of the federal state and local tax deduction and additional changes in the federal tax law that meant many taxpayers didn’t withhold sufficient taxes through payroll deductions, backloading their end-of-year tax payments. Anecdotally, strong revenue collections occurred in many other states in April. Additional data and analysis are required to present a comprehensive explanation for the revenue shift, and our staffs are working to provide the General Assembly with a more detailed analysis.

As an immediate result of the strong April performance, coupled with revenue collections year-to-date, the State of Illinois will be able to address most of the $1.6 billion shortfall in the enacted FY19 budget because of the April revenues alone. GOMB and the Department of Revenue will be increasing the forecast of general funds individual income taxes by $1.249 billion and general funds corporate income taxes by $186 million, for a total revision of $1.435 billion, a revision of approximately 7% from February 2019 income tax estimates.

Additionally, based on this strong performance, the Department of Revenue has also re-evaluated its FY20 projections. DOR is also projecting that income tax revenue for the FY20 general funds budget will be roughly $800 million higher than initially projected, or nearly $22 billion instead of $21.18 billion. This represents income tax collections roughly 4% higher than the initial base projections.

Several, though not all, of the factors that contributed to the April revenue growth will continue into the coming fiscal year. These factors include continued strong employment, including in Illinois.

The Department has also taken a conservative approach to its revised revenue projection by considering several of the growth factors as likely one-time sources. These sources include the stock market’s performance and taxpayers’ adjustments in their withholdings because of the new federal tax law. These factors have limited the growth that can be expected.

Governor Pritzker remains committed to a financially responsible budget that addresses Illinois’ outstanding obligations, and recommends that these additional revenues can be dedicated to the state’s statutory FY20 pension payment. The certified payments to the retirement systems total $9.1 billion. With the additional revenues due to the forecast revision, the state will be able to meet the current funding commitment to the retirement systems without extending the ramp this year. The Governor remains committed to finding ways to fund our pension commitments in a sustainable manner.

Ensuring the state’s pensions are sustainably funded continues to require significant effort, and will not happen overnight. Over the coming months, the administration will continue to work on a responsible approach to the state’s unfunded pension liabilities, which continue to threaten to crowd out vital investments in education and public safety. Both the Pension Asset Value and Transfer Task Force and the Pension Consolidation Task Force are expected to provide comprehensive reports in the coming months. Our expectation is that the Legislature will be able to take their recommendations into account as we work together to finalize a long-term pension reform plan and continue to work with the Legislature to develop a long-term pension plan.

The State of Illinois has faced much financial uncertainty in the past, and while this revised revenue estimate is certainly welcome news for our residents, the state’s finances won’t be stable in the long-term until a fair tax system is put in place.

Sincerely,

David Harris
Director
Department of Revenue

Alexis Sturm
Director
Governor’s Office of Management & Budget [Emphasis added]

…Adding… Senate President Cullerton…

This is good news arriving at a good time.

Ain’t that the truth.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

62 Comments »
  1. - Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 3:44 pm:

    Ya gotta luv me sum Trump economy. Wow.


  2. - Nonbeleiver - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 3:49 pm:

    Good. Now to paying back bills and doing so at a rapid rate.

    Seems to be plenty of money (at least for now) coming into the treasury from the last tax hike.

    So I will say it again. Scratch the progressive income tax. Live within the means of the already greatly increased temporary income tax hike which is nwo permanent. Consider a sunseted (really sunseted) service tax that pays off back bills while paying existing bills and not adding to the existing backlog.

    Will this persuade any downstate DEMS to vote against the graduated income tax?


  3. - Matt - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 3:51 pm:

    Does this mean we can eliminate the proposed Marriage Penalty?


  4. - Thomas Paine - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 3:56 pm:

    IPI, Tribune and Blaise must be heartbroken.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 3:56 pm:

    ===Scratch the progressive income tax===

    The only way that makes sense in this instance, with this news, is to “help the millionaires”?

    The deficits in pensions alone make your premise… contrived… at best.


  6. - Mark - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 3:56 pm:

    And now the Illinois Democrats are taking away holidays!


  7. - Perrid - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 3:58 pm:

    Uh, guys, you get this is a one time windfall, right? This does very little to move the needle one way or another on ANY of the arguments for or against a graduated income tax.


  8. - wordslinger - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 3:59 pm:

    –the elimination of the federal state and local tax deduction –

    Yeah, that ends up being a tax increase for home mortgage payers on state income tax, too.


  9. - Annon For Now - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:00 pm:

    ===elimination of the federal state and local tax deduction and additional changes in the federal tax law that meant many taxpayers didn’t withhold sufficient taxes through payroll deductions, backloading their end-of-year tax payments.====

    Anyone with more tax smarts than I want to address this? I thought this was a bad thing and Dems in DC were working to flip this back, but this looks to be good?


  10. - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:00 pm:

    Perrid: It is not a one time windfall. Based on the revenue from this year, they adjusted the estimated revenue for next year by $800 million - see bold text in the middle of the letter.


  11. - Annonin' - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:01 pm:

    GpvJunk must be proud


  12. - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:03 pm:

    Annon for now - it still is arguably a bad thing and represented a bit of a tax hike…one that most didn’t take into account when doing withholdings during 2018, resulting in more tax payments from individuals to the state in April.


  13. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:03 pm:

    People, stay on-topic. I’ve deleted one. I will delete more.


  14. - Shytown - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:05 pm:

    Can we just celebrate this moment for crying out loud?


  15. - Nonbeleiver - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:06 pm:

    Notice the Governor targets pensions as being the real bad boy in the state budget.

    Come on Governor. You know better than that. Medicaid has for over 40 years been the main driver of increased government expenditures and continues to remain so,


  16. - My button is broke... - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:07 pm:

    The State and Local deduction on the federal level has nothing to do with this windfall. That is an itemized deduction that is subtracted after adjusted gross income is determined (which is the figure that the Illinois income tax starts with).

    My guess is that rich folks did their best to push income from 2017 (pre-Trump tax cut) into 2018. And those payments finally made it into the treasury around April 15 of this year.


  17. - Perrid - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:11 pm:

    Robert, still a short term change, which could snap back in a second if/when we hit a recession. My point was that people arguing it means we don’t need a graduated income tax, which would change financial projections in the long term, are being silly.


  18. - Honeybear - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:13 pm:

    “The Department has also taken a conservative approach to its revised revenue projection by considering several of the growth factors as likely one-time sources.”

    Robert the Bruce, they are being conservative with this. They also predicted earlier that a “slow down” happens third quarter of next year.
    There goes the higher employment which is what they first cited. I think they are saying this is a lucky break, cross ourselves, say a prayer of thanks and get back to the grindstone.


  19. - Because I Said So.... - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:15 pm:

    Does this mean all agency heads don’t have to propose reductions?


  20. - RFR - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:17 pm:

    –the elimination of the federal state and local tax deduction –

    How do they figure that has any impact? Illinois state income tax is based off federal AGI, and the SALT deduction has nothing to do with that calculation.


  21. - Annon For Now - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:18 pm:

    Thank you Robert the Bruce.


  22. - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:19 pm:

    Honeybear, the way I’m reading it is that they’re now assuming $800 million more in fy20, and they believe that this $800 million is a conservative estimate.


  23. - Honeybear - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:19 pm:

    Frankly I wish they’d use some of this to pay the illegally withheld, contractually owed backpay to state workers. Now that Pritzker has dropped the Rauner appeal to the AFSCME impasse,
    That
    Money
    Is
    Legally
    Owed
    I’m sure he’d like to not have to do his pension gimmick but do we
    Pay our bills?
    Honor our contracts?
    Obey the courts?
    or are we going to be like Rauner
    and destroy the workforce more
    You think the problems at DCFS
    aren’t linked in part to
    workers leaving because their contractual
    wages were withheld?


  24. - A guy - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:23 pm:

    The economy is performing better. There are substantially more tax payers earning income, more income and paying the requisite tax on that income. When unemployment rates go down as dramatically as they have, income tax withheld and paid automatically and by quarterly payments go up.
    The National Economy has improved, and so has Illinois’. More income, more tax paid, more money in households, more spending, more sales tax, eating tax, and every other kind of tax.

    Glad they’re sending the money where they are. They need to keep doing that.


  25. - City Zen - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:26 pm:

    Fantastic. Now don’t spend it 5 different ways.


  26. - MG85 - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:27 pm:

    Sounds like Pritzker has no excuse not to pay AFSCME employees their backpay owed from the arbitration they won due to Rauner illegally withholding their contractually obligate step increases.


  27. - Arsenal - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:27 pm:

    ==the elimination of the federal state and local tax deduction==

    So basically, a tax hike brought in new revenue and we can pay a bill.

    Who’da thunk it, lol.


  28. - Facts matter - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:29 pm:

    COGFA seems a bit less giddy about the increase to income tax receipts - see P. 7 of their monthly report:

    “Preliminary views point to very strong non-wage income tax performance [e.g. the more volatile capital gains and dividends components]. As a result, this significant one month over performance cannot safely be extrapolated into future underlying growth. * * * As such, they cannot be counted on to follow predictable trends, nor safely be expected to recur. Again, further analysis is required before any definitive conclusions are made.”


  29. - Nonbeleiver - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:30 pm:

    Honeybear and MG85,

    Thanks for reminding me. A real issue. Hopefully the Governor will be reminded of this also.


  30. - Real - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:32 pm:

    If anything we definitely need the progressive income tax passed but the rates should be 3.25% for incomes under $80,000. And it should be 4.75% for incomes over $80,000 to 250,000. For incomes over $250,000 it should be 4.95% incomes over $1 million 7.95%


  31. - muon - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:37 pm:

    This is reminiscent of the April 2013 surprise increase in revenue. That was also over $1 billion and was also due to the changes in tax policy at the federal level. The difference appears to be that the bump in 2013 was only for one year, but if I read the memo correctly a substantial part of this may have lasting effects.

    In 2013 Comptroller Topinka was able to use the windfall to pay back bills down to about one month turnaround - $3.2 billion. Will any of this current windfall be used to similarly reduce the current backlog?


  32. - Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:41 pm:

    Put a Republican in charge of Revenue and you get results.


  33. - Former State Worker - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:54 pm:

    I don’t understand what this has to do with the stock market performance? Are they talking about increases in AGI due to capital gains? Could this also lead to an increase in Quarterly estimated payments? Otherwise, I don’t understand why this would impact the amount of revenue collected last month.

    Strong employment and a good economy make sense, otherwise. The population may be declining but it doesn’t appear like the tax base has eroded which is the only reason I care about the population loss.


  34. - Honeybear - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:56 pm:

    Michelle Flaherty hahahahahahahahaha
    That’s so so funny
    Really?
    That’s actually super sad.
    You think Harris had anything to do with this.
    wow……


  35. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:57 pm:

    ===You think Harris had anything to do with this.===

    Having a Republican has its advantages.

    Well played - Michele Flaherty -, lol


  36. - Raising Kane - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 4:58 pm:

    What an amazing surprise! But even more amazing is that we have a Governor who is being so fiscally responsible. It would be so tempting to take that money and use it to buy affection by creating new entitlement spending and raising the baseline every year. Instead they are taking care of business and helping improve our long term fiscal condition.

    I have been very critical of skipping the pension payment but today’s actions have gone a long way to convincing me that we finally have a grownup in the Governors Office.


  37. - SWIL Voter - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:07 pm:

    Unknowingly Backloading end of year tax payments doesn’t seem like it would carry forward, nor does it seem like a good thing for family financial planning.

    Seems to be largely a result of close to a decade of continued economic improvement, including finally reaching full employment, right?


  38. - Anonymous - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:12 pm:

    Good news for once.


  39. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:13 pm:

    So I guess Speaker Madigan can put away his budget scissors?


  40. - DuPage Saint - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:14 pm:

    Great. However it happened is semi found money. Just spend it wisely and budget like it is a fluke. That is please do not show it as income for next ten years and spend it now. Anyway just good for a change


  41. - Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:16 pm:

    Honeybear,
    Thanks for taking me seriously.
    You shouldn’t.


  42. - Anonymous - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:19 pm:

    Every cent should go to pensions.


  43. - Anon - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:29 pm:

    900 Million for the on time pension payment.
    500 Million towards the backlog of unpaid Bills.
    100 Million into the depleted “Contingency” Fund.

    Pensioners and Financial Raters will be happier.
    People owed money will have to wait for shorter time to be paid even if not caught up.

    But I somehow doubt this will happen so thanks for paying the Pensions what they are owed at least.


  44. - PublicServant - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:31 pm:

    ===Fantastic. Now don’t spend it 5 different ways.===

    Man do I hate it when I agree with CZ.


  45. - thoughts matter - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:44 pm:

    It’s a good thing. But we have to remember that the state is about 6 billion dollars behind on bills after this income influx. We won’t suddenly be in the black for future years. We still need to match our revenues to expenses with the graduated taxes. It’s not feasible to cut our way into the black.


  46. - Almost the weekend - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:50 pm:

    I’d love to see where where the extra $1.5 billion came from in the state. I’m going to guess north of I-80, but I’m probably wrong.

    S/


  47. - GC - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:59 pm:

    Wow. Rich (or anyone that is knowledgeable) - is your understanding are the pension holiday, bill backlog, and AFSCME backpay were all competitors for this windfall?


  48. - RNUG - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 5:59 pm:

    Found money is always good. Using it for the pensions is also good.

    To those saying it should go to the back pay, that issue is a bit more complicated. There is an ongoing appropriation to pay the pension funds, so no additional legislation is required. The back pay has no appropriation in the current FY budget … and since that crosses multiple agencies, there needs to be line item appropriations in each agency’s budget. I’ve been assuming that the back pay issue will be dealt with in the agency’s FY20 budgets.


  49. - Donnie Elgin - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 6:03 pm:

    This news makes the Cannabis money look like Chump change

    “The governor budgeted for $170 million in new revenues next fiscal year from licensing fees associated with legalization“


  50. - Anon - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 6:07 pm:

    How did Revenue not foresee an increase? The federal government ended exemptions. Exemptions were used to the reduce the federal AGI, which is then used to calculate state taxes. It But our revenue folks could not foresee that the tax base (AGI) would increase? It should have been apparent already (as would the one-time likelihood that the wealthiest would move income to lower tax year).


  51. - Everett Twerkson - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 6:20 pm:

    This is what 3.5% GDP growth feels like.
    Actually it kinda feels like when you find a $20 in the pocket of a pair of pants you haven’t worn in a while. But what the heck, I’ll take it.


  52. - California Guy - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 6:51 pm:

    What’s scary is how this almost happened, despite the overwhelming amount of research and evidence supporting the need to do exactly the opposite. Not funding pension obligations is what got IL into this mess in the first place. If this idea can surface in the midst of a booming economy, I think we all know what’s going to happen in the next recession.


  53. - Former State Worker - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 7:02 pm:

    “How did Revenue not foresee an increase? The federal government ended exemptions. Exemptions were used to the reduce the federal AGI, which is then used to calculate state taxes. It But our revenue folks could not foresee that the tax base (AGI) would increase? It should have been apparent already (as would the one-time likelihood that the wealthiest would move income to lower tax year).”

    Exemptions were deducted on line 42 of the 2017 US 1040. They had no impact on the AGI so this explanation makes no sense as far as why it would impact Illinois revenue. Illinois starts with the AGI, which is line 37 so the exemptions had no effect on what is reported on Line 1 of the IL-1040.


  54. - SSL - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 7:26 pm:

    More people working. People being paid more, even before tge minimum wage mandate.

    How could this hafe happened.


  55. - Enviro - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 7:36 pm:

    ==increase in Quarterly estimated payments==

    I’ll be interested to see if this increased state revenue continues in July and October.


  56. - Whatever - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 7:45 pm:

    ==Illinois starts with the AGI, which is line 37 so the exemptions had no effect on what is reported on Line 1 if the IL-1040.==

    Plus, Illinois law has its own exemptions, which did not go away.


  57. - wordslinger - Tuesday, May 7, 19 @ 11:59 pm:

    –Ya gotta luv me sum Trump economy. Wow.–

    Is that what’s going on? Hyper-Keynesian doubling the deficit in a previously full employment, growth economy?

    You’re such a phony “conservative.”

    Back in the day, the Clinton growth economy led to budget surpluses. The T-bond pits at CBOT went dark.

    Any drunk can borrow more money in good times. Tell your grandkids they’ll pay for grandpa.


  58. - PublicServant - Wednesday, May 8, 19 @ 6:41 am:

    ===Over the coming months, the administration will continue to work on a responsible approach to the state’s unfunded pension liabilities…===

    While I was paying my mortgage over 30 years, that monthly bite crowded out many vital things that would have benefited my family. At the state level, vital things begin to get crowded out in the near future, because that bill that you put off paying becomes larger and larger as both time and continued payment skipping continue.

    The ILSC has ruled that the pensions must be paid when due. The only way to get out from underneath the debt burden is to make steady and sufficient payments to pay it off. If you feel pinched, there are many ways the state can mitigate that situation.

    Learn from the past. Put forth a credible, sustainable plan to pay off the debt by a date certain. If you can come up with that plan, and fund it fully. I’ll be on board. Right now, the only plan out there is the pension ramp. Whatever you’ve got, JB, you need to get it out there in the public eye ASAP, where it can be scrutinized, and then you have to stick to it.


  59. - Matt - Wednesday, May 8, 19 @ 7:11 am:

    ==Tell your grandkids they’ll pay for grandpa.==

    Kind of like Millennials being stuck with $133 billion of pension debt for Illinois pensioners while the state refuses to tax retirement income?


  60. - DuPage Moderate - Wednesday, May 8, 19 @ 8:11 am:

    Matt:

    Exactly. Just when most 30-40somethings have fully recovered from the 2009-2010 meltdown caused by the policies of the soon to be retirees, these same soon to be retirees are sticking their hands out a again for the 30-40somethings to bail them out.

    All take, no give.


  61. - Pundent - Wednesday, May 8, 19 @ 8:27 am:

    =Kind of like Millennials being stuck with $133 billion of pension debt for Illinois pensioners while the state refuses to tax retirement income?=

    Well fortunately for those Millennials they tend to be mobile and can easily pack up and move if this is their most pressing concern. But there will be no hiding from the federal debt or the gaping hole that has to be plugged in social security. Illinois pension problem will be quaint in comparison.


  62. - foster brooks - Wednesday, May 8, 19 @ 8:55 am:

    sales tax collection from amazon helped too


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