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How much will gaming expansion really raise?

Tuesday, Jun 4, 2019

* From a legislative cheat sheet…

Casino Expansion: One Time Revenues (License/Application/Position Fees): $360 million in FY20
One-Time Reconciliation Payments: $630 million (not to be collected until FY23)

One-Time Revenues from bidding of the six new casinos: conservative estimate of $200-$300 million per license, for six licenses. Total revenues could be realized all in FY20 ($1.2 billion - $1.8 billion), or could be spread out over several years.

Recurring Revenues: $170 million annual for slots, $17 million for table games at full implementation.

Racetracks: One Time Revenues (License/Application/Position Fees) of $220 million

Recurring Revenues: Awaiting either GOMB or CoGFA analysis.

Sports Betting: One time revenues for licensing fees $240 million at full implementation.

Recurring revenues: $60 million - $100 million at full implementation (this does not include the Lottery Kiosk Pilot Program as Illinois would be the only state to separate that out from other providers at 35% tax rate).

Video Gaming: Projected to bring in an additional $40 million to state, $8 million to municipalities in year 1, $50 million state; $10 million munis going forward. This does not include natural growth from additional terminals which could maximize revenues up to $150 - $200 million at full implementation (stakeholder estimate that does not factor in cannibalization of the market).

One Time Revenue Estimate Totals: $2.7 billion at full implementation. This could all be realized in FY20 with the exception of $60 million in online sports wagering licenses due to the penalty box.

Recurring Revenue Estimate Totals: $470 million at full implementation. This does not include the Lottery Sports wagering pilot program.

You can’t bond one-time revenues, of course, but $2.7 billion will eventually fund a lot of vertical construction projects. And we’ll see what the recurring revenue total eventually winds up being and if they ever decide to bond that money. Frankly, having $400 million or so in recurring revenues would be better spent on pay as you go projects every year. That means a new capital bill every year, which is how things used to be done.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

18 Comments
  1. - Bothanspy - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:16 am:

    ==this does not include the Lottery Kiosk Pilot Program as Illinois would be the only state to separate that out from other providers at 35% tax rate==

    Can someone explain what this means? There’s a 35 percent fee on sports bets?


  2. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:23 am:

    Are they sure the State will be able to sell all the casino licenses? I would think the same for the Racetrack, although since it is only one new racetrack, I would assume that some company already has the insider track on that.

    I occasionally partake in gambling, but even for me this is a lot of new gambling.


  3. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:26 am:

    ===Are they sure the State will be able to sell all the casino licenses?===

    Nothing is 100 percent, but since people in Rockford, Danville, etc. have been screaming for decades about a casino, I’m figuring the answer is “Yes.”


  4. - Southside Markie - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:30 am:

    Two things to consider: How will existing revenues from current gaming operations be cannibalized by the new gaming? Every time new gaming operations have been introduced in Illinois, the revenues for many of the existing operations have decreased. How long will it take for the Gaming Board to promulgate regs to effectuate the new gaming operations? If memory serves, it took IGB at least two years to do the video gaming regs, which significantly delayed the receipt of the revenue stream.


  5. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:38 am:

    == Rockford, Danville ==

    Rockford I can see. It’s been a bit since I’ve been down in Danville, but Danville is pretty depopulated, and in itself probably does not have enough people to support a casino. The casino would have to be confident that they can pull in people from Kankakee, Chambana, and Indiana. Seems pretty risky, so I’d maybe not spend that money right away.


  6. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:42 am:

    === Seems pretty risky, so I’d maybe not ===

    You’re not the target investor.


  7. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:49 am:

    == You’re not the target investor. ==

    You’re right about that, but the state should not rely on selling a license that no one will want to buy because of market saturation.


  8. - A guy - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:57 am:

    The magical question is how much bigger will the pie get. We’ve added slices for sure, but how many more dollars will go in remains a mystery.


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 10:58 am:

    ===but the state should not rely on selling a license that no one will want to buy===

    Again, your singular opinion. And since this revenue isn’t being bonded, there’s no actual reliance.


  10. - NotBuyingACasinoToOwnTheDems - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 11:06 am:

    ===Again, your singular opinion. And since this revenue isn’t being bonded, there’s no actual reliance.===

    Count me out, too, Rich. So, so far, we’ve heard from at least two people who won’t be buying a casino license and not a single person who will. Sorry, Rich, can’t argue with the cold hard numbers.


  11. - Southside Markie - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 11:08 am:

    ===but the state should not rely on selling a license that no one will want to buy==

    This isn’t going to be a problem. Look at how many bidders there were for the last license that went to DesPlaines, including well-funded and legitimate operators and developers who wanted to put a casino in economically disadvantaged communities like Country Club Hills.


  12. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 11:14 am:

    == Again, your singular opinion.==

    If you have some inside information, I would happily be proven wrong. There is definitely reliance though. If we plan for $2.7 billion in capital projects but receive $2.5 billion in one time payments, then there is a deficit.


  13. - Chicagonk - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 11:56 am:

    If Danville targets the Champaign population, I can see it being somewhat successful. There are a lot of Chinese students at Illinois and gambling is very popular in Chinese culture (just look at the advertisements on the Dan Ryan in Mandarin for the Indiana casinos).


  14. - Thomas Paine - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 12:45 pm:

    @Chicagonk aka #WhatsWrongWithAsianStereotypes:

    You have to be 21 to gamble in Illinois.


  15. - Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 1:27 pm:

    Last year, the gaming industry contributed approx $711 million to Nevadas’budget. What that means for Illinois. I dunno.


  16. - anon2 - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 1:36 pm:

    Cannibalization is inevitable. When people can play casino games as conveniently as the lottery, their interest in the latter may decline.


  17. - Thomas Paine - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 3:43 pm:

    @anon2 -

    That is not how addiction works.


  18. - Bavette - Tuesday, Jun 4, 19 @ 5:52 pm:

    If people go to Indiana to gamble I guess Danville has a chance.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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