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Oberweis slammed for releasing poll that has him trailing by 9

Thursday, Sep 19, 2019

* Sen. Sue Rezin’s US Rep. campaign about a fellow state Senator’s new poll…

Today perennial candidate Jim Oberweis released a poll his current campaign for Congress conducted that shows him losing to incumbent Lauren Underwood, 47 to 38 percent. Yes, that is correct—Jim Oberweis’ own campaign has publicly released a poll showing him losing yet another campaign in a head to head matchup between incumbent Congresswoman Lauren Underwood and himself.

Oberweis has run for Congress, US Senate and Governor six times and lost six times. He has a virtual PhD in losing elections.

Oberweis’ news release says fellow Republican State Senator Sue Rezin will need a million dollars to catch up to him in name I.D. for the primary election. But the fact is Sue Rezin needs no lessons from Oberweis about how to win elections. Rezin has won five out of five elections—three of them “Tier One” state legislative races. It is Rezin’s legislative record that will appeal to general election voters. For instance, earlier this year she sponsored a bill on preexisting conditions and succeeded in getting the State Senate to pass it unanimously. That was the key issue in the last election. The appeal of Rezin’s legislative record is one her Republican primary opponents simply cannot match.

Again, Oberweis has lost six out of six races for Congress, US Senate and Governor. Oberweis can watch, wait and learn about how Rezin’s effective campaign will surge past him because Sue Rezin has done so again and again and again and again in highly competitive legislative campaigns.

Oberweis’ pollster maintains that if voters are told a series of negative things about Underwood that they will reverse their original position against Oberweis and end up supporting him, but that is nothing more than wishful thinking. It has never worked in any of Oberweis’ previous campaigns for high office.

Oberweis’ pollster is one of the least credible in Washington, DC. In a June 13, 2014 article in The Hill newspaper, the article begins by saying: “National Republicans are warning candidates to stay away from (former) Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s pollster, who predicted just weeks before Cantor’s loss that he was up by a huge margin.”

The Hill article went on to say: “Two weeks before the majority leader’s stunning 11-point loss on Tuesday McGlaughlin’s poll showed Cantor with a 34-poit lead over professor Dave Brat.” That means Oberweis’ pollster was wrong by an astounding 45 percentage points.

The article in the Hill goes on to detail other McGlaughlin polling results that were released publicly and proved to be wildly inaccurate.

Jim Oberweis can dream about the 7th time being the charm but Republican voters would be reckless to bestow a nomination for Congress that is critical to earning back the U.S. House majority on a candidate who has blown more elections for high office than anyone in the State of Illinois.

Just like she did in her first state legislative election, Sue Rezin has what it takes to defeat an incumbent Democrat representative while Jim Oberweis’ epic series of lost elections AND his own poll just released today are the clearest indicators that he would blow this election as well if he somehow became the Republican nominee.

More info on the poll is here. The Republican head-to-head, which has Oberweis leading potential primary opponents by a wide margin, is of just 200 voters. I can’t recall any congressional candidate ever releasing a poll with that small of a sample size.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

38 Comments
  1. - Sayitaintso - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:10 pm:

    As Jim tightens the strap on his crash helmet, he eyes the brick wall not 30 feet away. He slowly lowers into a runners stance, takes several deep inhales, and murmurs “THIS time I’ll show ‘em, this time I’ll show ‘em”….


  2. - train111 - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:10 pm:

    If that poll is correct and Underwood stands at 47 already - whomever the GOP nominates has their work cut out for them already.


  3. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:14 pm:

    Take all polls with more than a grain of salt, especially this early

    NY Times made 41,000 calls and 501 people gave their opinion last election.

    They and just about everyone else had this district (that voted for Trump) remaining Republican last time. 47-43.

    Lauren Underwood will need a lot of luck to get reelected.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il14-1.html


  4. - Roman - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:14 pm:

    That’ll make for an awkward Senate Republican caucus come Veto Session.

    I’m guessing Oberweis hopes this poll somehow makes the House GOP operation have second thoughts about funding Rezin in the primary against him. I doubt it works. Underwood and the DCCC are praying for a match-up with Oberweis and the national Republicans are dreading it.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:15 pm:

    Just some tasty word workin’ here;

    ===perennial candidate===

    ===losing yet another campaign===

    ===Oberweis has run for Congress, US Senate and Governor six times and lost six times. He has a virtual PhD in losing elections.====

    I could go on. They did.

    To all this, and to the post,

    Ya can’t release polls where you’re losing, and folks already see ya as a perennial “loser”. For the love of Pete I’d be disappointed if any other campaign didn’t hammer Oberweis in similar fashion… less Underwood. Heck, Underwood likes this poll most, even at a sample size no bigger than the Fire Marshall’s capacity sign at an Oberweis ice cream shop.

    The Chicago Cubs are facing the most important 10 game stretch of baseball this season. They need to play well to win, and I’ll be watching, but I can’t stand watching bad baseball, and lately the Cubs are playing some mediocre ball. This takedown by Rezin reminds me how much I despise watching bad politics too. Releasing a poll that has such a small sampling and losing in it too, that is some seriously bad politics. Can’t stand that.

    Rezin’s flack, whomever wrote all those words, so much tasty, mixed in with brussel sprouts and fried liver. Editing is your friend, keep it tasty and hot.

    I’m excited to see Oberweis continues to be … a perennial candidate… running another losing campaign.

    You don’t need to help folks beat you Oberweis Crew, honest.


  6. - Hawkeye87 - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:16 pm:

    So par for the course from the Oberweis campaign.. It’s time for Jim to hang it up, if the GOP wants to win this seat back they need Rezin in the general.


  7. - DuPage Bard - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:19 pm:

    Why would you release that poll?

    Oberweiss losing? In other news….. water is deemed wet.


  8. - twowaystreet - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:28 pm:

    Is it safe to say this was a poll of Oberweis’ friends and family?

    Therefore, even Oberweis’ friends and family would take Underwood over him?


  9. - Barry - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:28 pm:

    Rezin’s press release is one of the best cases of political jiujitsu that I have ever seen.


  10. - don the legend - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:29 pm:

    Each time his name is in print is free advertising for the dairy brand. Assuming the scar tissue from all the losing insulates the pain, then free advertising increases profits.

    Hard to explain hitting your head against the wall but maybe it’s all about increasing the profits of the family business.


  11. - Tommy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:31 pm:

    I think there is better chance of me trying out the new cinnamon rice pudding than Oberweis even having a remote chance.

    Rezin clearly the stronger candidate.


  12. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:35 pm:

    ===one of the best cases of political jiujitsu===

    Meh. It’s a B-, given the slam dunk lede that
    Oberweis’ Crew released a poll they’re down 9.

    Patterson and Abdon probably are the standard out there today. The words they’d edit out of this would slice and dice it up before they’d add they’d own secret sauce.


  13. - DuPage Saint - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:36 pm:

    Oberweise is showing why he was voted a young gun
    Anyway did he ever think that his name recognition is why he is trailing in polls
    If he wins I guess I vote Libertarian at least if they can find a candidate current on child support


  14. - TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:37 pm:

    Maybe we’re looking at this the wrong way?

    What if Oberweis has found a way to make more money simply by constantly losing? Using the same concept in “The Producers”.


  15. - Back to the Future - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:50 pm:

    OW
    Always enjoy reading your writings, but “a sample size no bigger than the Fire Marshall’s capacity sign at a Oberweis ice cream shop” is downright well put.
    Thanks for the chuckle today.
    Back


  16. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:51 pm:

    - Lucky Pierre -

    I wonder if the anti-Trumpkin vote put Underwood over the top.

    I also wonder how Trump is polling now versus Underwood’s own numbers.

    2018 is a lifetime ago now.


  17. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 3:52 pm:

    (Tips cap to - Back to the Future -)


  18. - Lake County 14th Voter - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:06 pm:

    “National Republicans are warning candidates to stay away from (former) Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s pollster, who predicted just weeks before Cantor’s loss that he was up by a huge margin.”

    New Lede: Perennial losing candidate hires perennial inaccurate pollster
    Subheadline: Winning strategy baffles ice cream man


  19. - SAP - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:08 pm:

    If the poll shows Oberweis losing, shouldn’t he point out how unreliable the pollster is instead of Rezin pointing it out? Just saying.


  20. - Just Observing - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:08 pm:

    === Each time his name is in print is free advertising for the dairy brand. Assuming the scar tissue from all the losing insulates the pain, then free advertising increases profits. Hard to explain hitting your head against the wall but maybe it’s all about increasing the profits of the family business. ===

    Eh… there’s far easier and more effective ways to market the Oberweis brand without also alienating a good chunk of customers.


  21. - Huh? - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:09 pm:

    “Today perennial candidate Jim Oberweis released a poll his current campaign for Congress conducted that shows him losing to incumbent Lauren Underwood, 47 to 38 percent. ”

    Code for “Don’t waste your vote on me. I already lost the campaign.”


  22. - Northsider - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:11 pm:

    Following up on Sayitaintso @ 3:10, without a viable oscillation overthruster, Oberweiss will never break through to the 8th Dimension.


  23. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:11 pm:

    Rich- yes, size matters and his polling is too small to satisfy, but seriously the lack of credible candidates ( including Rezin) speaks volumes


  24. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:11 pm:

    ===“National Republicans are warning candidates to stay away from (former) Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s pollster, who predicted just weeks before Cantor’s loss that he was up by a huge margin.”===

    Here’s a prime example.

    This is the “Jo Galloway Mistake”

    You go after the pollster who has Oberweis already down, you question the poll, but you keep going after the poll makes you lol like you’re afraid of what polling could show.

    Why do this?

    You afraid with the right pollster Oberweis might be doing better? Why even go down the road of credibility of the pollster, they’re givin’ ya a poll, purposely, they’re down in.

    It’s a B-. Words, words, words…


  25. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:13 pm:

    ===If the poll shows Oberweis losing, shouldn’t he point out how unreliable the pollster is instead of Rezin pointing it out? Just saying.===

    Spot on.

    Maybe it’s jujitsu of falling on your face to make a point you’d rather leave edited.


  26. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:14 pm:

    ===You go after the pollster who has Oberweis already down?===

    Pollster has him way up in the primary. Click the link.


  27. - Proud Sucker - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:14 pm:

    We in the 14th are trying to make-up for our successive Hastert votes. Underwood is proving to be an able legislator. Randy had just been phoning it in. Resin would get closet to Underwood than Jim, but may still not win.


  28. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:19 pm:

    ===Pollster has him way up in the primary. Click the link.===

    I’m coming at it that less is more, and if they’re going to question the pollster here, and cherry pick there, what’s the point of pointing out any set of numbers?

    Might as well make it about Oberweis’ losing history in the General and make hay there.

    Going after it as they are, should I be more or less confused on any polling, even bad polling for Oberweis?

    Also, Oberweis, releasing as they did, why run any of that out?


  29. - A guy - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:20 pm:

    No one will ever accuse Oberweis of being Uber-wise.


  30. - DuPage Bard - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 4:42 pm:

    Maybe Jim is down because his poll only used cellphones and his strong suit is old timers with land lines?


  31. - @misterjayem - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 5:03 pm:

    He’s down by nine, but is he beating the spread?

    – MrJM


  32. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 7:23 pm:

    The Oberweis political ice cream is melting.


  33. - Rich Hill - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 7:30 pm:

    Lotta gallons of Dulce De Loss to go around.


  34. - JS Mill - Thursday, Sep 19, 19 @ 7:32 pm:

    =Lauren Underwood will need a lot of luck to get reelected.=

    Not if she runs against Oberwies


  35. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 20, 19 @ 7:29 am:

    I read the poll report. Why haven’t Rich and the commenters here mentioned that upon those polled being informed on Underwood’s policy positions, Oberweis picks up 13% and beats Underwood?


  36. - Ice Scream - Friday, Sep 20, 19 @ 8:54 am:

    This is par for the course for Senator Oberweis, as Senator Rezin rightly points out. He’s a perennial candidate who’s campaign team has sorely led him asunder. I don’t know any true campaign professionals that would let this see the light of day.

    Is this the same Jim Oberweis that ran for U.S. Senate in Illinois, but news media revealed he was in Florida? Is he running in Florida’s 14th Congressional District this time?

    Sheesh.


  37. - Tommydanger - Friday, Sep 20, 19 @ 8:54 am:

    The only reason you release a poll that shows you losing by 9 is if you believe the common perception is that you are behind by more than 9 points.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 20, 19 @ 9:09 am:

    ===upon those polled being informed on Underwood’s policy positions, Oberweis picks up 13% and beats Underwood?===

    Dunno if you read, it’s a sample size of 200.

    Taking much of this poll seriously, is at best dubious.

    Rezin’s Crew wants you to cherry pick what is believable, with so many unnecessary words.


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