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It’s not necessarily the out-migration, it’s the in-migration drop

Wednesday, Sep 25, 2019

* Cecilia Reyes and Patrick M. O’Connell at the Tribune

Interestingly, if you look only at the rate of people leaving one state for another, Illinois doesn’t particularly stand out. Illinois ranked No. 21 — near the middle of the pack — on the rate of domestic out-migration in 2017, the most recent year for which those estimates are available. […]

Census data shows that since 2013, in-migration has been decreasing in Illinois with out-migration mostly rising.

In 2017, an estimated 266,000 people reported they had moved to Illinois in the last year, which is 9% fewer than the 292,000 estimated arrivals in 2013. The number of people who arrived from other states rather than from abroad declined even more steeply, from more than 223,000 to about 195,000.

Combine migration losses with an aging population, declining birth rates and stagnated international migration, and the result is decreased population.

The whole story is well-researched and debunks some myths, many of which have been perpetuated by the paper’s own editorial board. Go read it all. Facts are crucial when making policy decisions. Relying on politically charged rhetoric doesn’t usually work too well in that arena.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

29 Comments
  1. - Capt Australia - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 9:59 am:

    The bad national press and social poundings drives both out-migration and hurts in-migration. If Chicago’s status slips as the “capitol of the Midwest” watch out.


  2. - Capt Australia - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:00 am:

    social media…


  3. - Downstate - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:07 am:

    It would be interesting to see those statistics matched up with the net worth/earning capacity of both the in-migration and out-migration.


  4. - don the legend - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:08 am:

    ==Relying on politically charged rhetoric doesn’t usually work too well in that arena.==

    Seems to work fine for some of the fine folks on this site. );


  5. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:14 am:

    ===Facts are crucial when making policy decisions. Relying on politically charged rhetoric doesn’t usually work too well in that arena.===

    Deciding to ignore facts to “drive” a policy is how you build up a grifting style of base willing to believe half-baked rhetoric.

    See: Illinois Policy Institute

    “Example?”

    What Diana Rauner felt was missing wasn’t that the facts were against Bruce, they all knew that. Diana Rauner wanted IPI grifters to help with messaging half-baked facts to save Bruce, when in harsh reality the Superstars saved Bruce every day by winning the day, facts be $&@%ed.

    Rich is on-point with those important words.


  6. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:16 am:

    ===It would be interesting to see===

    Read the article.


  7. - Skeptic - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:19 am:

    “Why do people move away? Lots of reasons.” There’s a lesson for everyone. If you’re discussing a complex topic, and find yourself saying “The real reason why…”, just stop, you’re not helping. You’re only showing your bias.


  8. - Former State Worker - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:20 am:

    =If Chicago’s status slips as the “capitol of the Midwest” watch out=

    What other city would be the capital of the Midwest? No other city/MSA in the Midwest is even close to Chicago.


  9. - efudd - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:26 am:

    “If Chicago slips”

    Not the biggest fan of urban areas, but what city will take it’s place?
    Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Dubuque?


  10. - The Doc - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:34 am:

    ==The bad national press and social poundings drives both out-migration and hurts in-migration==

    Not sure what “social poundings” refers to, but not sure how out of town journalism profiles of IL reduces in-migration. Any data to back this up?


  11. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:43 am:

    Great read, the article in this post. There’s another recent article but I can’t easily locate it, about outmigration and the grass not being always greener on the other side, in regards to things like taxes and government services.

    “Seems to work fine for some of the fine folks on this site. );”

    There are professional downers of Illinois who use Illinois Exodus as a scare tactic to get us to adopt right wing policies. But they live in Illinois, make good or a lot of money here and have been taxed at relatively-low state rates, which is the hypocrisy.

    It’s great to gave a governor who is helping rebuild and talks up Illinois, unlike the last one, who trashed and purposely hurt us.


  12. - Ted Slowik - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:48 am:

    Here’s a “grass isn’t always greener” view on the topic.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/daily-southtown/opinion/ct-sta-slowik-illinois-grass-greener-st-0925-20190924-bmo6ddkklngi5i44zguvotitvu-story.html


  13. - supplied_demand - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:50 am:

    ==Not the biggest fan of urban areas==

    What is this even supposed to mean?


  14. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 10:57 am:

    “Here’s a “grass isn’t always greener” view on the topic.“

    That’s the article. Thanks and great job, if you’re Mr. Slowik.


  15. - Lil Squeezy - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 11:06 am:

    Interesting. I didn’t read the story this morning because of the publication. I know better but couldn’t help rolling my eyes and turning the page.


  16. - SSL - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 11:18 am:

    I would expect the trends to continue. As the population ages some people will leave for better climates as they always have. However, people aren’t so quick to abandon families, no matter what other factors they may not like. All depends on your personal situation.

    The in-migration will be difficult to change. There is a lot of negative press about the state, and Chicago. Much of the information isn’t accurate, but that doesn’t stop people fron seeing it. And then there’s the prospect of what is accurate. The residents of this state are on the hook for the failed policies of both parties. Why get involved with a mess like that if you don’t have to? Illinois is rightfully recognized as one of the worst fiscal performing states in the union, with no plan for fixing it. Not much of a selling point for prospective residents.


  17. - Downstate - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 11:29 am:

    —–Read the article—–

    Paywall


  18. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 11:30 am:

    ===Paywall===

    Then don’t comment.


  19. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 11:35 am:

    ==I would expect the trends to continue.==

    Trends can change. What could easily change that would increase Illinois’ population: More infrastructure spending means more workers are needed, so they move here. New people in the federal government in 2021 might make a friendlier environment for immigration and immigration might increase. Seniors who had moved to warmer climates in the past might lose their ability to be independent and move back to be with younger family members.
    What could change to decrease Illinois population: birth rates and deaths. The population is increasingly getting older and older people don’t make babies. Younger people are not having large families either, and many are forgoing families altogether.


  20. - Annonin' - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 11:37 am:

    Katrina and Kassamoron must have been dozin’ when this piece was commissioned.

    Surprised they did not hope to the census bureau with a few queries on who picks the words for the questions and who does the translation.

    Might have also helped to report the impact of the CHA’s reconstruction program and outmigration of Section 8 renters to other places including downstate IL.
    Maybe the Simon Institute pollsters will read this read and reshape their their polling.


  21. - RNUG - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 11:45 am:

    Long … but a good read. The major thing that came through is that each family’s decision was driven by multiple factors; it wasn’t just one thing.

    You aren’t going to change family dynamics or climate or retirement relocation, but those are not the only factors.

    What was left unanswered is if some minor adjustments of tax policy or some public safety or school improvements could slow the outmigration or improve the immigration.


  22. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 11:55 am:

    Illinois has terrible problems and they shouldn’t be glossed over. We (the voters) didn’t want “local control” and stripping of union rights, over which the last governor caused so much damage. We didn’t let certain interests dominate the narrative over what reforms are needed. Many believe we need a graduated income tax as a key component in addressing our abhorrent fiscal condition. It’s a very tough task to get the required votes for the fair tax amendment, but many support fairer taxation.


  23. - Former State Worker - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:04 pm:

    =The in-migration will be difficult to change. There is a lot of negative press about the state, and Chicago. Much of the information isn’t accurate, but that doesn’t stop people fron seeing it. And then there’s the prospect of what is accurate. The residents of this state are on the hook for the failed policies of both parties. Why get involved with a mess like that if you don’t have to? Illinois is rightfully recognized as one of the worst fiscal performing states in the union, with no plan for fixing it. Not much of a selling point for prospective residents.=

    Net domestic migration in Illinois has been negative for decades. This is nothing new.

    What kept Illinois from losing population in the past is foreign immigration and a higher birth rate.

    Unless the birth rate ticks up or Illinois does a better job of attracting non-domestic immigration, I would expect losses to continue.

    The birth rate is relatively low throughout the country which has slowed population growth on a national level. Not many states are losing populations like Illinois is but Alaska, Wyoming and West Virginia have had multi-year population losses this decade. West Virginia’s death rate is actually higher than its birth rate.

    Another issue with Illinois is the lack of attractive MSAs. If you look at other rural states like Nebraska and Iowa, the rural counties are losing people but the inn-state MSAs are gaining people at a fairly decent rate which more than offsets the losses in-state.

    The Illinois MSAs just aren’t that attractive right now. If you live in Henry, IL and are looking to move then the Chicago MSA just isn’t all that attractive. Other MSAs like Peoria, Rockford, Springfield, etc. aren’t that appealing. Bloomington/Normal and Champaign/Urbana are the only ones that I see that haven’t lost people in recent years and they are barely growing.


  24. - Jibba - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:06 pm:

    ==with no plan for fixing it===

    We tried low taxes and high spending, and it didn’t work. We tried not paying our bills, and that didn’t work. Other states tried to slash taxes and spending, and that didn’t work.

    We’re now trying to tax enough to support services and pay our bills. It’s the worst plan, except for all the others.


  25. - Not a Billionaire - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:21 pm:

    I should point out birth rates are falling fast globally . India just reached replacement fertility. The US has nationally gone way under replacement with most of Europe China and east and southeast Asia.


  26. - City Zen - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 4:00 pm:

    ==We tried low taxes and high spending, and it didn’t work.==

    (Checks property tax bill)

    We tried what now?


  27. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 4:11 pm:

    ===(Checks property tax bill)===

    Yes, and that bill has NOTHING to do with state under-funding of schools. Please.


  28. - MyTwoCents - Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 5:24 pm:

    City Zen, to follow up on Rich’s comment, high property tax bills are exactly because we tried low taxes and high spending. If we had adequately funded education at the State level then school districts would not have relied on property taxes as much.


  29. - Dybalat - Thursday, Sep 26, 19 @ 8:29 am:

    Does it really matter if the taxes come from Real estate or income? It’s still being taken from working people either way.


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