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Poll: Just 38 percent of Chicago voters oppose CTU strike

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2019

* ABC 7

Just days before Chicago Public Schools teachers could walk off the job, a new ABC7/Chicago Sun-Times poll shows nearly half of the people surveyed support a strike.

The survey found 49% of voters either strongly or somewhat support a walkout, while 38% are opposed. […]

“Most people don’t want strikes in general,” said ABC7 political analyst Laura Washington, “The union has done a very good job in making their case. They’ve got a number of other public unions that are supporting them.”

* Sun-Times

The survey was done Friday and Saturday with automated telephone interviews of 618 Chicago voters.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, offers a lens into the public relations war that has been waged in recent weeks by the city and Chicago Teachers Union to win the hearts and minds of city taxpayers and CPS parents. Winning public support is paramount as negotiations come to a head and pressure mounts on the two sides to work out an agreement. […]

CPS parents, who made up a quarter of the voters polled, were more likely to support a strike – and to blame Lightfoot for the ordeal. More than half supported a strike and nearly one in five parents placed responsibility personally on the mayor. […]

The freshman mayor’s approval rating stands at 54%, with 15% expressing disapproval. Almost a third of voters say they’re not sure what to think of Lightfoot’s performance. […]

A few months before the 2012 teachers’ strike, Emanuel’s job approval rating stood at 52% with 29% disapproving, according to a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll.

…Adding… Some commenters have asked about support for the 2012 CTU strike. This poll was taken after the teachers walked out

Conducted by We Ask America, the poll of 1,344 voting Chicago households asked, “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the Chicago Teachers Union’s decision to go on strike?” 55.5 percent said they approved and 40 percent disapproved. Another 4 percent had no opinion. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent,” according to Rich Miller, the report’s publisher.

From that day’s Capitol Fax

Asked who they thought was “most to blame” for the strike, just over 34 percent pointed their finger at Mayor Rahm Emanuel, while 29 percent blamed the Chicago Teachers Union and 19 percent blamed the school board. In other words, a solid majority blames management, one way or the other.

Whites blamed the union more than the full sample, at 41 percent. People without school-age children blamed the union a bit more than the full sample, 31 percent. And 39 percent of those with children in private schools blamed the union.

But almost a majority, 48 percent, of Latinos blamed Mayor Emanuel, as did 33 percent of African-Americans, 42 percent of parents of public school children and 40 percent of parents of school-age children. All age brackets except those aged 55-64 blamed Emanuel the most, with 50 percent of 18-24 year olds pointing their finger at hizzoner, as well as 41 percent of 35-44 year olds.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

61 Comments
  1. - Bad Politician - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:30 am:

    The average CTU salary will be $97,000 at the end of the contract.

    And the teachers don’t work over the summer.

    Two married teacher would have an annual income of $193,000. That seems like fair compensation to me.


  2. - Rod - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:31 am:

    Well when the critical issues for the CTU are binding written agreements on class sizes, nurses to students ratios across the district, and similar provisions for social workers it is not hard to see why the CTU is generating support. Mayor Lightfoot simply does not want to concede to agreeing with putting into a written contract what the current school code specific to Chicago allows them not to include. The problem for the CTU is current state law does not allow them to strike directly over working conditions. So the possibility of court involvement in a strike is possible.

    The Mayor who claims to be a progressive is in a complex situation to seeking an injunction over these issues.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:34 am:

    === Two married teacher would have an annual income of $193,000. That seems like fair compensation to me.===

    That’s the “average”. How many years teaching in CPS is also “average”?

    To the post,

    Voters have better anecdotal memories with teachers versus pols or administration folks. It’s tough for voters to side *against* teachers that teach in CPS.


  4. - ZC - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:38 am:

    Trying to figure out how this compares to 2012 public opinion. Looks fairly similar so far, actually.

    The percentage of parents with CPS kids supporting the strike is actually -lower- currently than what it got to in 2012. But the strike hasn’t happened yet. So I think it’s apples-to-oranges. Let’s see if the CTU gets a “rally,” if / once they actually start picketing. CTU support eventually got to around 2/3 of parents with kids in public school, once the strike was underway.


  5. - City Zen - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:41 am:

    ==Trying to figure out how this compares to 2012 public opinion.==

    Same. 49% certainly isn’t overwhelming support for a strike.


  6. - Just Me 2 - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:41 am:

    I’d love to see a breakdown for those that pay property taxes and those that rent and don’t think about property taxes.


  7. - Levois J - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:42 am:

    I just wonder how Lori Lightfoot settles this. She’s not Rahm Emanuel is the only thing I can say. At the same time she’s not a seasoned pol either. If the city’s voters seem to support it, how does one try to avert a strike?


  8. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:42 am:

    === And the teachers don’t work over the summer.===

    No one stopped you from being a teacher. Complaining about “summers off” is a jealousy not a point in any argument.


  9. - Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:42 am:

    How many of the supporters of CTU realize the billion extra dollars CPS received is not going to the fund the programs and staff CTU is demanding but instead paying pensions?

    “CTU has its own math as strike date nears
    The union that represents math teachers has its own version of where $1 billion in new state taxes went. In fact, the bulk went to pay for teachers’ pensions.

    With a possible teachers strike now just three days away, it would be nice to report that the parties at least are working from the same set of facts in trying to craft a settlement.

    Unfortunately, the folks at the Chicago Teachers Union continue to use their own math. I guess I can understand that in the context of a heated labor dispute, but that’s really regrettable for an organization that represents math teachers.

    CTU’s “new math” centers as it has for a while on the roughly $1 billion in increased tax dollars that have flowed to Chicago Public Schools since the 2016-17 school year, money the union argues really ought to go to its members and other spending priorities set by the union.

    As the union said in a press release over the weekend, “CPS gets upwards of $1 billion additional dollars a year from the state of Illinois to lower class sizes, which are among the largest in the state; support students in poverty . . . and address CPS’ demonstrated need for wrap-around supports for students who confront trauma and violence. Yet CPS and the mayor have refused to commit to investing that billion dollars in real equity on the ground for school communities.”

    https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/ctu-has-its-own-math-strike-date-nears


  10. - ktkat1 - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:44 am:

    My kid makes nowhere near $97,000 as a CPS teacher and with the hours she puts in throughout the school year, it’s equivalent to working a 40 hour per week job year round. That doesn’t include the stress, the hundred if not thousands of dollars she has paid out of pocket for her classroom and her kids.


  11. - Bad Politician - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:48 am:

    KitKat -

    The CTU contract already provides an annual $500 stipend for classroom supplies to every teacher.


  12. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:50 am:

    ktkat1 - which is why your kid deserves a 4% a year raise. That’s not what the strike is about.


  13. - Amalia - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:53 am:

    can’t wait to hear the same people who are overwhelming on the teacher side complaining about their property taxes. this is clearly more of the my kid loves their teacher syndrome. clouds brains. evaporates critical thinking. funding local government services has more than reached a critical point. sure, Rahm misfired on closing schools by not providing the clear rationale why schools with, say 80 students in them, should not be an operating building. but he was not wrong.


  14. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:53 am:

    This contract dispute is apparently not about school supplies and salaries/raises. It’s about classroom sizes, nurses and other resources.

    Lightfoot seems committed to reach a deal—so unlike the previous governor, who flat-out walked away from negotiations.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 9:58 am:

    === that pay property taxes and those that rent and don’t think about property taxes.===

    Why does that matter?

    What, rent doesn’t help pay property taxes for the owner? LOL

    - Lucky Pierre -

    Bruce Rauner caved to Chicago teachers.

    You’re welcome.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:04 am:

    - Amalia -

    Closing 50 schools did little to help.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2018/05/24/chicago-promised-that-closing-nearly-50-schools-would-help-kids-in-2013-a-new-report-says-it-didnt/%3foutputType=amp


  17. - anon - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:04 am:

    I think we should be careful about saying what this dispute is about. Initially, the report was the union balked at the 16% pay raise over five years. After pushback on the union, the stories shifted to varied complaints about staffing for nurses, social workers, counselors. Then there was the report the union wanted guarantees about affordable housing in the City (with quotes from the union). It is possible these are all real concerns from the union. It is also possible they are cover because the dispute over a greater pay raise was not met with support for the union.

    At various times in the last several weeks, the news has reported the union had issues with unhappy with the proposed pay raise


  18. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:05 am:

    Teachers get just about the same amount of vacation time as anyone else who gets PTO. Anyone who says otherwise has no idea what they’re talking about.


  19. - Anon E Moose - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:08 am:

    Seems to happen in Chicago a lot more often than other big cities…


  20. - anon - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:10 am:

    For those discussing salary averages, the Tribune put out a story the other day with more specific data. The starting salary if $52,958. A CPS teacher with 10 years of experience and a masters will earn $82,630. Those numbers meet or exceed most other Illinois schools (and other large cities). However, more senior teachers do not see significant increases and are paid comparably less than elsewhere.


  21. - Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:12 am:

    Nice misdirection OW

    Blame a one term Republican Governor for the decades long failure of Illinois Democrats to actually pay for the programs, salaries and benefits their government union benefactors demanded.


  22. - BC - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:19 am:

    The polling, both then and now, indicates Chicagoans generally like their teachers and their first inclination is to support them without regard for the details of the collective bargaining dispute. The real question is how do Chicagoans react if a strike is called and it goes on more than a few days? My sense is support for CTU will trend downward as Lightfoot gets the media to focus on the financial offer. But, if the strike goes a week or two, Lightfoot will no doubt see her poll ratings spiral down quickly.


  23. - ChrisInCHI - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:21 am:

    I’ve always been of multiple minds about this.

    I know multiple people who’ve left the city entirely because they knew that CPS wouldn’t be able to provide SpEd services adequately despite being happy with the education for their non SpEd kids. It’s unacceptable, but it’s also a problem that will cost a lot of money to fix.

    At the same time, CTU knows full well that it’s going to take a significant property tax increase just to keep treading water as it is with the city budget, but neither they nor their alder allies are willing to step up and admit this. Hell, even when Mendoza proposed a graduated property tax system to make it less regressive, Carlos Rosa slammed her for it because even he was too chicken to offend the mansion owners in Logan Square. Instead we get obfuscation about TIFs.

    If Sharkey or Davis Gates went up to the press and said “Look, the city needs to take a tax hike because our kids are worth it” I’d be a lot more sympathetic to the strike. Either provide the services and pay for them or don’t, but simply putting it on the credit card should be a no-go.


  24. - Powdered Whig - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:24 am:

    === Closing 50 schools did little to help. ===

    Although the talking points may have indicated that this would help kids, these closings were strictly to eliminate the costs of running the schools.


  25. - EastSider - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:25 am:

    $500 stipend is spent within the first month, if not before….


  26. - Token Conservative - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:31 am:

    Chicago taxpayers: supporting things they can’t afford since…well… forever.


  27. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:40 am:

    Teachers are vital and the most important people in your lives when it’s you or your children/grandchildren. Apparently, when you’re finished with them, they become lazy, overpaid bums. Funny how that works.


  28. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:40 am:

    === Nice misdirection===

    No.

    When Rauner caved to CPS you were “cool” with it, were you not?

    Your partisan takes are amusing. Blaming “Democrats” is your schtick. Rauner caved, you seem oblivious to that.

    - Powdered Whig -

    It’s noted Rahm was unable to show a cost savings, as they were never touted after the closings.


  29. - Token Conservative - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:56 am:

    ==Teachers are vital and the most important people in your lives when it’s you or your children/grandchildren. Apparently, when you’re finished with them, they become lazy, overpaid bums. Funny how that works.==

    You can respect teachers and despise CTU’s tactics at the same time.


  30. - Enviro - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:57 am:

    @9:31am ==The problem for the CTU is current state law does not allow them to strike directly over working conditions.==

    The Illinois House passed HB 2275 in March of this year which allows Chicago teachers to strike over working conditions including class size. Someone convinced the Illinois Senate to put a hold on this bill.


  31. - Thomas Paine - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 10:58 am:

    The “Greedy Teachers Campaign” is going on its fourth month, and it has not moved public opinion an inch.

    Parents, who are paying closest attention and will be the arbiters, are with the union. That number is going to go up as the strike approaches, unless you believe parents don’t want their kid’s school to have a nurse, a librarian, or a social worker? Didn’t think so.

    Public support will shift to the parents’ position, as the most trusted voices in this three-way debate.

    And they will turn on Lightfoot, just as they turned on Rahm. Everyone wants to avoid a strike, and they expect a lot of manuevering in negotiations. but once teachers are out on strike, the public expects the games to end, and they expect the mayor to fix it.


  32. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:00 am:

    === You can respect teachers and despise CTU’s tactics at the same time.===

    Polling seems to favor both. Just sayin’


  33. - Jocko - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:02 am:

    ==A CPS teacher with 10 years of experience and a masters will earn $82,630==

    I would be curious about staff turnover at the non-magnet schools. Ten years at some West or South Side schools might feel like a lifetime.


  34. - Honeybear - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:06 am:

    Proud of my CTU sisters and brothers


  35. - Enviro - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:14 am:

    === You can respect teachers and despise CTU’s tactics at the same time.===

    The same can be said of Mayor Lightfoot and the CPS negotiators.


  36. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:19 am:

    =How many of the supporters of CTU realize the billion extra dollars CPS received is not going to the fund the programs and staff CTU is demanding but instead paying pensions?=

    @LP- here is where you demonstrate how little you really understand. Teacher salaries and benefits are and investment into programs and students.

    The most important asset in a classroom is a quality teacher.

    That additional money is an investment into programs- who do you think runs the programs? The Russians and Ukrainians?


  37. - Rudiforte - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:31 am:

    If CPS closed 50ore schools, there might be money to fund CTUs request of nurses and librarians. CPS continues to lose thousands of students every year. You can’t expect schools that are half enrolled or worse to continue to operate indefinitely. Consolidation is needed.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:34 am:

    - Rudiforte -

    Keep up. There was no savings as indicated by Rahm’s Administration once the 50 schools were closed.

    Had there been real savings it would’ve been measured.


  39. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:35 am:

    - Rudiforte -

    WBEZ…

    === Emanuel did not comment on the findings. CPS had said that closing the 50 schools would save $43 million annually and $437 million over time by not having to fix or maintain the shuttered buildings. But the school district has never provided any detailed information on whether those savings were or will be realized.===


  40. - Rudiforte - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:37 am:

    Willy, I know you believe there is endless money for all sorts of government fantasies. Unfortunately there isn’t, so keep up.


  41. - Rudiforte - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:39 am:

    And where did CPS say the entire budget spending would be cut? I never once heard that. The saved money was spent on CPS. CPS never claimed there would an overall spending reduction.


  42. - Amalia - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:46 am:

    thanks OW, though I can’t quite get behind the pay wall. I think the piece has to do with student performance. the consolidation had to do with money. and at some point, government officials need to flat out tell people that they cannot sustain certain buildings. the trouble with a large city is that it does not have the advantage of a town, where there’s generally one library, one high school, a few or one elementary schools. people get way too attached to their teeny building of whatever and there is not a way to “close a store.” there should be.


  43. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:48 am:

    - Amalia -

    === I think the piece has to do with student performance.===

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wbez.org/shows/wbez-news/study-2013-chicago-school-closings-failed-to-help-students/0eea4948-78dc-4fc9-9c45-0750584cb9f4/amp

    === === Emanuel did not comment on the findings. CPS had said that closing the 50 schools would save $43 million annually and $437 million over time by not having to fix or maintain the shuttered buildings. But the school district has never provided any detailed information on whether those savings were or will be realized.===

    Cost was asked by WBEZ.


  44. - Rudiforte - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:48 am:

    The poll results is actually surprisingly bad for CTU, I would have expected much higher support for their position. Also, this was an automated poll which have very mixed results. Did the poll question how the public wants to pay for CTUs demands?


  45. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:50 am:

    === I know you believe===

    LOL

    No. I gave you a fact. You don’t like the fact. You create a straw man.

    Making it about me doesn’t refute my point.

    How’s that TIF learning coming, good I hope.


  46. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:52 am:

    === And where did CPS say the entire budget spending would be cut? I never once heard that. The saved money was spent on CPS. CPS never claimed there would an overall spending reduction.===

    Then why close any schools if there isn’t a thought of money saved?

    Do you just argue to argue or argue to feel better about being angry?


  47. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:54 am:

    === The poll results is actually surprisingly bad for CTU===

    You’re the only person I can think of that an 11 point spread favoring a labor union is “bad”

    It’s like a team leading a ball game and you’re the person “they ain’t winning by enough”

    lol


  48. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 11:57 am:

    === Did the poll question how the public wants to pay for CTUs demands?===

    You could pay for your own poll.


  49. - Rudiforte - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 12:13 pm:

    When was the last time CPS didn’t receive the tax levy it requested Willy?


  50. - Rudiforte - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 12:14 pm:

    Willy, you don’t know a lot of CPS families do you? How many kids do you have in CPS right now? Keep up.


  51. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 12:23 pm:

    === When was the last time CPS didn’t receive the tax levy it requested===

    Explain TIFs and the relationship to CPS.

    === you don’t know a lot of CPS families do you? How many kids do you have in CPS right now?===

    This is the “I know” argument you hear from the angry person at the bar. “Oh yeah, well I know”

    In all your comments, you yet to respond to my cites.

    I can’t “keep up” when your ask is to also be the angry person at the end of the bar.

    This ain’t Facebook. Bring facts.


  52. - Rudiforte - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 12:43 pm:

    Willy, you are struggling because you don’t understand how TIF works. CPS gets its requested tax levy every year. It increases its levy too. Please read up so you can keep up.


  53. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 12:46 pm:

    === you are struggling because you don’t understand how TIF works.===

    … and yet, I cited the IPI take of $500 million lost to CPS, and the most honest Amanda Kass take on TIFs.

    You have “I know”

    Again, this isn’t Facebook. I asked, explain TIFs.


  54. - Stuntman Bob's Brother - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 12:54 pm:

    So, 49% support a walkout. Whoever came up with the line, “Any time you rob Peter to pay Paul, you’ll always have the support of Paul” should have won some kind of major award.

    So give ‘em what they want - increase the city sales tax to pay for it, that way everyone in the city gets to kick in their “fair share”.


  55. - Steve - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 1:08 pm:

    The new official 2019-2020 20th day enrollment should be coming out soon. Will it be another down year in enrollment? Will CPS fall below 361,314? What’s the number that will trigger even more school closures? 350K, 340K, 325K ?


  56. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 1:15 pm:

    === What’s the number that will trigger even more school closures?===

    How much was saved closing the first 50?

    Cite that number. WBEZ couldn’t get that number.


  57. - Steve - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 1:26 pm:

    OW

    According to your logic closing schools will never cut spending in the long run. I don’t know what the legacy costs were. I just know , less kids in the system does raise the cost per pupil.


  58. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 1:29 pm:

    === According to your logic closing schools will never cut spending in the long run.===

    Not my logic, WBEZ reporting…

    === CPS had said that closing the 50 schools would save $43 million annually and $437 million over time by not having to fix or maintain the shuttered buildings. But the school district has never provided any detailed information on whether those savings were or will be realized.===

    You can *read* right?

    === I don’t know what the legacy costs were. I just know , less kids in the system does raise the cost per pupil.===

    Cite that actual savings here. Send it to WBEZ.

    #FactsMatter


  59. - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 1:46 pm:

    Closing schools saves some costs - expense in maintaining the facility. But that $43,000,000 savings for 50 schools was clearly a foolish promise.

    I suppose in theory you save some money by having fewer teachers when you close a school, but it’s not like the students disappear - they go to other schools which then receive higher enrollment and some extra budget money.

    I wonder if CPS was too embarrassed by the real number to release it?

    Back to the post - my sympathies lie with most of the teachers demands, but I’d like to see some honest cost estimates against them. How much would it cost to mandate lower class sizes across the district (and therefore hire more teachers?) How much would it cost for a social worker in each school?


  60. - Steve - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 2:59 pm:

    OW

    You make a great case for separating school from state. If you can’t reliable data..


  61. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 19 @ 3:01 pm:

    === You make a great case for separating school from state. If you can’t reliable data.===

    What does this *even* mean, this is gibberish.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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