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Nitpickers gonna nitpick

Friday, Nov 8, 2019

* Gov. Pritzker the other day

People talk about the exodus from Illinois and they’ve blamed it on a lot of things, because we’ve lost population. Oh, by the way, Illinois lost population in 94 out of the last 95 years, so it’s not like it’s a new thing that we have a slight out-trickle of people leaving the state.

* From a 2016 study entitled “Who Is Leaving Illinois and Why?”

Data show that net out-migration in Illinois is not a new phenomenon –it has been occurring since at least the 1920s as part of a national trend that has seen a movement of population from the Northeast and the Midwest to the West and South.

* Politifact

The state saw declines in its overall population in just 15 of the last 95 years for which the federal government has released estimates, which contradicts part of the governor’s claim on its face.

His office said he was only referencing domestic migration — the number of people moving to and from Illinois within the United States — and estimates compiled by migration experts suggest he’s on more solid ground there.

But domestic migration is just one metric of population change, something Pritzker’s muddled remark about the state’s decline obscures. We rate his claim Half True.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

26 Comments »
  1. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 1:20 pm:

    Found this diddy from someone I miss a lot…

    === Wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 26, 15 @ 6:10 pm

    For anyone interested in a shorthand illustration of the changes in the share of the American population among the states, 270towin.com can clue you in very quickly, based on reapportionment maps.

    No shocks there. Over the last 60 years, the greatest movement, by far, has been to three states: California, Texas and Florida.

    Fifty years ago, Florida had fewer people than Alabama.

    Does anyone seriously think marginal state government decisions have anything to do any of it?

    We’ve got issues in Illinois. But they ain’t going to be solved by repealing sunshine, air conditioning, jet planes, the interstate highway system, the TVA, or Hoover Dam.===

    Unmatched.


  2. - Six Degrees of Separation - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 1:48 pm:

    ^Word always had a way of getting to the point, quickly.

    Here is another website that explains the recent internal migration trends. California and Texas are among top 3 highest out-migration as well as in-migration. And New York, the only non-sunbelt state among the 3 top out-migrators, has a pretty strong contingent moving next door to NJ or PA.

    One highlight was that Cook County IL has the 2nd highest out-migration flow at 213k/year and 4th highest in-migration inflow among counties in the US at 138k/year. Those international immigrants and babies over deaths are important in keeping the county’s overall losses minimized.

    https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/moves-from-south-west-dominate-recent-migration-flows.html


  3. - Rabid - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 1:52 pm:

    The donner party left Springfield for greener grass


  4. - SSL - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 1:52 pm:

    Lots of reasons why people move to or leave a state. The only thing for sure is that right now, the trend is not our friend.


  5. - Southern Illinois Mayor - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 1:53 pm:

    Currently 33 in Bloomington, 76 in Orlando, Fla., 52 in San Antonio, Texas, and 72 in Tucson, Ariz. The story about people leaving Illinois because of taxes is ludicrous. People also leave because they were more economically able to do so for warmer weather, this is an indication of a strong state.
    Finally the legacy cost that plague Illinois are coming to these high growth states, the difference? Illinois is an old enough, successful enough state to be feeling them now.


  6. - PublicServant - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 1:54 pm:

    Willy, thanks for the reminder of the good old days. Wordslinger quotes are always welcome.


  7. - City Zen - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 1:59 pm:

    ==The story about people leaving Illinois because of taxes is ludicrous.==

    They’re certainly not staying because of them.


  8. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:07 pm:

    There are such divergent ideas for addressing outmigration. The previous governor sought the race to the bottom way, which is to strip union rights and decrease incomes. The current governor wants to change the state income tax structure to tax upper incomes higher, which is so long overdue, and give the vast majority of taxpayers at least some relief.

    Plus, we are upgrading infrastructure and have legalized marijuana. Will all this be enough to offset a long-standing trend? Who knows, but we should try to do something about outmigration. It doesn’t have to involve what certain interests are pushing, a red state model. We did pro-business reforms this year without operating in the extreme, like the last governor.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:08 pm:

    (Tips cap to - PublicServant -)


  10. - Six Degrees of Separation - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:13 pm:

    Some interesting results using the Census’ interactive migration tool. 2013-2017 stats.
    Cook County highest outmigration was to DuPage County (19,907) with Will (12,129) and Lake IL (10,996) and Lake (IN) (9,600) also numerous. Cook to Maricopa AZ was only 3,082. The primary counties where people moved into Cook were all in IL. 15,171 from DuPage, 8,686 from Lake, 6,091 from Will, and 5,967 from Kane. And 1,561 people actually moved to Cook from Maricopa AZ! as well as 2,402 from Los Angeles Co.


  11. - Responsa - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:16 pm:

    There are many (good) reasons people decide to uproot themselves/their families and move, migrate and seek domicile in another location at points during their lives. What annoys me are the certain commenters who frequently say “goodbye” or “good riddence” when the subject of out- migration is discussed. I do not understand that way of thinking.


  12. - PublicServant - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:30 pm:

    I think you’re on to something with the pot, GoM.

    Free pot to anyone with a Uhaul heading south on 55 or 57. Place the stands about 20 miles from the border, purposely make the exit like a maze and scramble GPS signals. No one will be able to get out. Problem solved.


  13. - Chicagonk - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:31 pm:

    For those ignoring people leaving Illinois, look at the population trends in Scott County, Iowa and Rock Island County, Illinois. Can’t blame weather for that.


  14. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:45 pm:

    A sample of one, but *my* three main reasons for leaving Illinois (a work in progress, I hope to be gone by late spring):

    1) The financial condition of the state, and my pessimism that anything will change without major tax increases;

    2) The political culture of the state - it has become futile to be an independent moderate; and

    3) The shifting attitudes regarding people who enjoy the shooting sports and believe in the right to own a firearm, including the right to defend oneself. I’ve seen a slow but inexorable move to the antigun side of the spectrum.

    I love this state, but just can’t stay.


  15. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:49 pm:

    “I think you’re on to something with the pot”

    There could be a stay in Illinois incentive: give each adult $3 million from the budget, in installments, to those who pay an Illinois income tax and as long as they love in Illinois. The budget is $40 billion, and there are around 9.9 million adults, so that would be an almost $30 million outlay, very doable. It would make a lot of people very happy.


  16. - City Zen - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:49 pm:

    ==What annoys me are the certain commenters who frequently say “goodbye” or “good riddance”==

    You’re still here?


  17. - PublicServant - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:51 pm:

    ===For those ignoring people leaving Illinois, look at the population trends in Scott County, Iowa and Rock Island County, Illinois. Can’t blame weather for that.===

    Fill us in on why, bud.


  18. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:59 pm:

    Just kidding about the $3 million dollar incentive.

    “What annoys me are the certain commenters who frequently say “goodbye” or “good riddence” when the subject of out- migration is discussed.”

    This is said to people who threaten to leave Illinois, some or many of whom do it purposely as a political talking point or to scare people. They say it when a graduated income tax is discussed. It’s like either do it or be quiet about it.


  19. - chuddery - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:59 pm:

    Ken,

    Where are you moving to? Are you leaving family in Illinois? Do you have a new job lined up, or are you retired?

    I ask because it seems unlikely to me that anyone would simply pick up and move away from family and friends without a job simply because they perceive that taxes will increase.


  20. - Anonymous - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 3:00 pm:

    ==You’re still here?==

    Heh, yep. I’m a remainer.


  21. - Responsa - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 3:02 pm:

    3:00 was me.


  22. - Chicagonk - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 3:05 pm:

    @PublicServant - Google is your friend


  23. - Jibba - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 3:36 pm:

    Ken, forgive me for suggesting, but given your mentioning of taxes and guns, perhaps you might not be a moderate. Just a thought.

    Also, you’re right that the financial picture of the state will not change without raising taxes. That’s JB’s plan. But will they raise for you (income over $300K). Dreading that they might even if that is different than JB’s plan suggests your other issues or political stripe might be more of an influence here.


  24. - City Zen - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 3:45 pm:

    ==I ask because it seems unlikely to me that anyone would simply pick up and move away from family and friends without a job simply because they perceive that taxes will increase.==

    Translation: You’re trapped. Family and friends are human shields to raise taxes. Diabolical.


  25. - JIbba - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 4:05 pm:

    CZ, your “all snark”programming is far more tiresome than your previous righteous indignation. Your translation is wrong too. It means that Illinois is a pretty good place to live if you want a job and a good salary. Leaving in fear with nothing in place is a bad move economically.


  26. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 5:04 pm:

    ===- chuddery - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 2:59 pm:===

    I’m heading for New Hampshire. I like the area very much, and my job allows me to work remotely from anywhere. My mother is the only family member left; she may join me in the coming years. I have no one left in IL on my late wife’s side. I’m 57, and even if I take early retirement I have several years of work left.

    ===- Jibba - Friday, Nov 8, 19 @ 3:36 pm:===

    Actually, I am. I’m actually fairly to very liberal on most social issues you can name, but I also don’t care for how either extreme feels the right to dictate their beliefs to everyone else. I probably come closest to being a little-l libertarian than anything else. I’m much more concerned about other taxes increasing - property, sales, use - than income tax. I don’t want to participate in what I perceive as a totally mismanaged, dysfunctional state.


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