Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » Poll has Lipinski closing in on 50 in four-way race
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll has Lipinski closing in on 50 in four-way race

Monday, Jan 27, 2020

* Greg Hinz

Here are the top-line totals. They come from a survey of 500 likely Democratic voters conducted Jan. 7-9 by Expedition Strategies, a Virginia-based firm that tends to do a lot of polling in areas with an abundance of working-class voters and whose clients include U.S. Sens. Chris Coons of Delaware, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Ron Wyden of Oregon, as well as the House Majority PAC, a Democratic super-PAC. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4.38 percent.

Asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 47 percent backed Lipinski to 25 percent for progressive opponent Newman and 2 and 1 percent each, respectively, for two little-known contenders, Rush Darwish and Charles Hughes. A hefty 26 percent said they didn’t know who they’d support. More on that in a minute.

With “leaners” included—those who, after a bit of a push, say they’re leaning toward a candidate but have not totally decided—Lipinski’s figure rises to 50 percent and Newman’s to 27 percent, with Darwish and Hughes unchanged. But 20 percent still are undecided.

Given that this is the second cycle in which Newman has challenged Lipinski, and given that “undecideds” often break in the end against the incumbent, this race still may be tighter than it might appear. At the same time, a 22-point margin ain’t shabby.

If this poll is accurate and Darwish can get some traction with his early spending, Lipinski might be in the clear. But Darwish’s introductory TV ad was not exactly great, so we’ll see.

* Related…

* Challenger Newman sees gain in Lipinski’s pain — third candidate ‘stunned’ by bad blood: “The machine must go,” Newman said. “They torture families. They bully people. And they’re nasty people. The machine must die, and I am a reformer.”

* Fact-check: Challenger Newman railroads the truth with jab at Lipinski over train crossings

* At Issue: Challenger Newman Hopes To Beat Congressman Lipinski, ‘Machine’

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:24 am:

    A good example where “the more the merrier” can help the incumbent. So much for one challenger to overcome when running in a crowded field.

    Good news for Lipinski, if this is true.

  2. - Southwest Sider - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:31 am:

    My district, so I am following. This is surprising news. I would have thought the opposite. Newman people are already canvassing the neighborhoods.

  3. - Responsa - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:44 am:

    ==Newman people are already canvassing the neighborhoods.==

    If the occupants of the home generally agree with incumbent Lipinski’s policies and performance as a rep, all the canvassing in the world against him is probably going to have only a minor impact. This is definitely one to watch.

  4. - BigLou - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:50 am:

    What did Lipinski suppossedly do to Newman’s family last time?

  5. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:51 am:

    ===What did Lipinski suppossedly do===

    Clicking links really isn’t all that difficult.

  6. - BigLou - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:56 am:

    I’m not seeing specifics. If by torturing he kids, she means people handing out stuff at polls were telling her kids that their mother is going to lose I don’t considerate that torture. If they were truly saying nasty stuff, then I think I could understand her point.

  7. - ziptie - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:10 am:

    Newman recently posted a picture on social media of a bridge’s beam with zip ties around it, claiming that zip ties were holding the beam together. Obviously, they were not, they were holding up a sign that was once there. Unbelievable.

    Her doubling down on her election night comments is troubling, and her comment about “the machine” torturing people is just insane.

    I’ve also seen her make claims that there was a conspiracy where her name “didn’t show up on the ballot at all in more than a dozen precincts.” She got votes in every precinct throughout the district, making the claim ridiculous and reckless.

    I’m not too surprised with this poll. She comes across like a wealthy, conceited, Trump-like, and delusional woman from La Grange. That district would eat her alive.

  8. - Drake Mallard - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:39 am:

    For somebody who rails Against the Machine she sure seems to brag about endorsements from Northside machine office holders

  9. - Victor Kingston - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:51 am:

    ==Newman people are already canvassing the neighborhoods.==

    Lipinski’s team is out too. They seem to be taking this very seriously this go around.

  10. - Victor Kingston - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:53 am:

    Also, if Lipinski is polling at 50 with that many undecideds, this seems like a lock. Of course more undecideds will go with the challenger than the incumbent. But no one thinks 100% of them will. So can someone explain the path to victory here with the incumbent at 50 and three challengers running around scrambling for the same vote share?

    Basic math sort of dictates this one isn’t exactly a horse race.

  11. - Fav human - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:54 am:

    “taking it seriously”

    And the poll tends to confirm that. Of course it’d be career suicide not to take it seriously.

  12. - Ed Equity - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 12:28 pm:

    Perhaps Newman referring to the Latino and Latina population as Latinx isn’t settling well. The term polls at 5% and is tone deaf to the traditional Hispanic residents who live in the district.

  13. - A Guy - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 12:30 pm:

    Ms. Newman was an “unknown” candidate last time. Her behavior at her loss made her much more known. I’ll stipulate that the district has changed; they all have really. It’s a matter of how much.

    It hasn’t changed in the direction of Ms. Newman though. She’s just not likable to enough people.

  14. - SelfRighteousIndignation - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 12:46 pm:

    Newman supporters seem an awful lot like Bernie Bros and are probably just as toxic to her brand. Then again, she’s pretty toxic to herself too.

  15. - Just Another Anon - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 1:07 pm:

    Came here to make the same basic comments as A Guy and SRI. Newman isn’t right for the district, yet. If the progressive area of the 3rd doesn’t get broken out in redistricting, then MAYBE in 4 or 5 years she’s electable there, providing growth and demographics proceed as in the past.

  16. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 1:13 pm:

    === She’s just not likable to enough people.===

    It’s a four-way race with an incumbent getting help.

    Likable or not, political geometry has her behind, the likability issue is more to the incumbent.

  17. - City Zen - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 2:05 pm:

    ==She comes across like a wealthy, conceited, Trump-like==

    Yet endorsed by Sanders, AOC, and Schakowsky, among others.

  18. - Victor Kingston - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 3:57 pm:

    ==It’s a four-way race with an incumbent getting help.

    Likable or not, political geometry has her behind, the likability issue is more to the incumbent.==

    While technically true, if the other two contenders were Newman’s main problem, wouldn’t they be polling higher than a combined 3%? Everyone has been talking about Lipinski getting help from it being multi-challenger, which he is, but based on the other two being at a combined 3% even with the MoE shouldn’t she be in the high 30s to lower 40s?

    These numbers are telling a story and assuming they’re right, and if they weren’t Newman would have released her internals to counter them, it’s not the story anyone has been assuming is being told in this district.

  19. - ChiProgressive - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 4:17 pm:

    I have seen numerous polls on this race and it is a toss-up. With higher turnout of a Prez election Lipinski should be very nervous. If Chuy comes out for Newman that may tilt this race her way.

  20. - NorthsideNoMore - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 4:36 pm:

    I’ve met scads of Congress types and just wondering how do you not like Dan Lipinski ? the guy is as easy going as it gets from that stand point. If you dont agree with his politics thats fine, but the endless personal attacks on him at events is tiresome. Get beyond one issue please !

  21. - Ok Boomer - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 4:52 pm:

    The last presidential election taught us all a few lessons about polls. Turns out there are a number of factors to consider, namely who took the poll? Older voters prefer Lip and tend to answer their phone, even when they do not know who is on the other end. I do not put much stock in this poll but I bet Lip’s camp thinks this gives him an edge. Sometimes that false notion can hurt you in the end.

  22. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 5:03 pm:

    Whether the gap between Lipinski and Newman is real or not, I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say Rush is not gonna win. /s

  23. - 'Goose - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 5:06 pm:

    ChiProgressive- I have seen numerous polling in this race that tracks with these numbers pre Jan 9 - none of them from Lipinksi camp- don’t know what you are looking at

  24. - Victor Kingston - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 5:16 pm:

    ChiProgressive - Please show your work. Because, if I’m Newman and I get called to give comment on this poll and my numbers or my allies numbers are different I tell the reporter that and bury the Lipinski camp. I don’t demand to see the other polls “methodology”.

    I would love to see another data point from this race that Newman or one of her allies is willing to release publically.

  25. - Mike - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 12:26 am:

    Newman caught Lipinski on cruise control last time and nearly upset him. Dude didn’t even have a modern website or much if any digital presence last time around. His team is prepared this time and are taking this race much more seriously.

    I take issue with the comment above that all her supporters are “Bernie Bros.” I am supporting her campaign and am a middle of the road Democrat. I know the DCCC supports incumbents but frankly a safe district where the Dem rep is signing on to ask the Supreme Court to consider overturning Roe, let alone voting against the Democrats’ signature legislation of the past decade, are downright disqualifying. I wish Newman’s team would do better in getting this messaging out.

  26. - A Guy - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 8:06 am:

    Mike- I think in voterland, there are plenty of Pro Life Democrats (long time traditional Democrats) who consider themselves middle of the road Democrats. Party leaders might consider recognizing them too, before they actually do leave.

  27. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 8:26 am:

    === Party leaders might consider recognizing them too, before they actually do leave.===

    Meh. Party labels are stronger than voting pro-life.

    You are a prime example.

    === The last presidential election taught us all a few lessons about polls. Turns out there are a number of factors to consider, namely who took the poll?===

    Again, the popular vote polling and results don’t reflect the electoral college factors.

  28. - Moderate Mike - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 1:20 pm:

    The way I see it, Newman might have a lot of volunteers, but it seems like most are coming from out of district and are sent to help her campaign by groups that support her like Indivisible, etc. I’m no fan of Lipinski. That said, I’m not really interested in voting for someone who condescends to anyone who disagrees with their ideas like Newman. Her supporters absolutely act like Bernie bros too and seem a little bit cultish to be quite honest.

  29. - Lipinski Fan - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 1:45 pm:

    Lipinski hasn’t done anything to Newman’s family. Newman is sour about Lipinski being more popular.

  30. - Bruce - Wednesday, Jan 29, 20 @ 10:55 pm:

    With no R presidential primary many will cross over to vote for Bernie and dan.

TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* A Fatal Error
* Gaming roundup: No betting on Illini/DePaul tournament games; Indiana's troubles; Harmon's video gaming gusher; Sweepstakes issues
* Pritzker won't have to sit for deposition
* Rep. Delgado qualifications hearing won't happen until after the primary
* Rate Darren Duncan's new TV ad
* Now, here's something you don't see every day
* The Illinois Credit Union League: Helping Credit Unions Succeed By Working Together!
* Underwood is basically on her own
* Open thread
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...








Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller