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Poll has Lipinski closing in on 50 in four-way race

Monday, Jan 27, 2020

* Greg Hinz

Here are the top-line totals. They come from a survey of 500 likely Democratic voters conducted Jan. 7-9 by Expedition Strategies, a Virginia-based firm that tends to do a lot of polling in areas with an abundance of working-class voters and whose clients include U.S. Sens. Chris Coons of Delaware, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Ron Wyden of Oregon, as well as the House Majority PAC, a Democratic super-PAC. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4.38 percent.

Asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 47 percent backed Lipinski to 25 percent for progressive opponent Newman and 2 and 1 percent each, respectively, for two little-known contenders, Rush Darwish and Charles Hughes. A hefty 26 percent said they didn’t know who they’d support. More on that in a minute.

With “leaners” included—those who, after a bit of a push, say they’re leaning toward a candidate but have not totally decided—Lipinski’s figure rises to 50 percent and Newman’s to 27 percent, with Darwish and Hughes unchanged. But 20 percent still are undecided.

Given that this is the second cycle in which Newman has challenged Lipinski, and given that “undecideds” often break in the end against the incumbent, this race still may be tighter than it might appear. At the same time, a 22-point margin ain’t shabby.

If this poll is accurate and Darwish can get some traction with his early spending, Lipinski might be in the clear. But Darwish’s introductory TV ad was not exactly great, so we’ll see.

* Related…

* Challenger Newman sees gain in Lipinski’s pain — third candidate ‘stunned’ by bad blood: “The machine must go,” Newman said. “They torture families. They bully people. And they’re nasty people. The machine must die, and I am a reformer.”

* Fact-check: Challenger Newman railroads the truth with jab at Lipinski over train crossings

* At Issue: Challenger Newman Hopes To Beat Congressman Lipinski, ‘Machine’

- Posted by Rich Miller        

30 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:24 am:

    A good example where “the more the merrier” can help the incumbent. So much for one challenger to overcome when running in a crowded field.

    Good news for Lipinski, if this is true.


  2. - Southwest Sider - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:31 am:

    My district, so I am following. This is surprising news. I would have thought the opposite. Newman people are already canvassing the neighborhoods.


  3. - Responsa - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:44 am:

    ==Newman people are already canvassing the neighborhoods.==

    If the occupants of the home generally agree with incumbent Lipinski’s policies and performance as a rep, all the canvassing in the world against him is probably going to have only a minor impact. This is definitely one to watch.


  4. - BigLou - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:50 am:

    What did Lipinski suppossedly do to Newman’s family last time?


  5. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:51 am:

    ===What did Lipinski suppossedly do===

    Clicking links really isn’t all that difficult.


  6. - BigLou - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 10:56 am:

    I’m not seeing specifics. If by torturing he kids, she means people handing out stuff at polls were telling her kids that their mother is going to lose I don’t considerate that torture. If they were truly saying nasty stuff, then I think I could understand her point.


  7. - ziptie - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:10 am:

    Newman recently posted a picture on social media of a bridge’s beam with zip ties around it, claiming that zip ties were holding the beam together. Obviously, they were not, they were holding up a sign that was once there. Unbelievable.

    Her doubling down on her election night comments is troubling, and her comment about “the machine” torturing people is just insane.

    I’ve also seen her make claims that there was a conspiracy where her name “didn’t show up on the ballot at all in more than a dozen precincts.” She got votes in every precinct throughout the district, making the claim ridiculous and reckless.

    I’m not too surprised with this poll. She comes across like a wealthy, conceited, Trump-like, and delusional woman from La Grange. That district would eat her alive.


  8. - Drake Mallard - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:39 am:

    For somebody who rails Against the Machine she sure seems to brag about endorsements from Northside machine office holders


  9. - Victor Kingston - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:51 am:

    ==Newman people are already canvassing the neighborhoods.==

    Lipinski’s team is out too. They seem to be taking this very seriously this go around.


  10. - Victor Kingston - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:53 am:

    Also, if Lipinski is polling at 50 with that many undecideds, this seems like a lock. Of course more undecideds will go with the challenger than the incumbent. But no one thinks 100% of them will. So can someone explain the path to victory here with the incumbent at 50 and three challengers running around scrambling for the same vote share?

    Basic math sort of dictates this one isn’t exactly a horse race.


  11. - Fav human - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 11:54 am:

    “taking it seriously”

    And the poll tends to confirm that. Of course it’d be career suicide not to take it seriously.


  12. - Ed Equity - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 12:28 pm:

    Perhaps Newman referring to the Latino and Latina population as Latinx isn’t settling well. The term polls at 5% and is tone deaf to the traditional Hispanic residents who live in the district.


  13. - A Guy - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 12:30 pm:

    Ms. Newman was an “unknown” candidate last time. Her behavior at her loss made her much more known. I’ll stipulate that the district has changed; they all have really. It’s a matter of how much.

    It hasn’t changed in the direction of Ms. Newman though. She’s just not likable to enough people.


  14. - SelfRighteousIndignation - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 12:46 pm:

    Newman supporters seem an awful lot like Bernie Bros and are probably just as toxic to her brand. Then again, she’s pretty toxic to herself too.


  15. - Just Another Anon - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 1:07 pm:

    Came here to make the same basic comments as A Guy and SRI. Newman isn’t right for the district, yet. If the progressive area of the 3rd doesn’t get broken out in redistricting, then MAYBE in 4 or 5 years she’s electable there, providing growth and demographics proceed as in the past.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 1:13 pm:

    === She’s just not likable to enough people.===

    It’s a four-way race with an incumbent getting help.

    Likable or not, political geometry has her behind, the likability issue is more to the incumbent.


  17. - City Zen - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 2:05 pm:

    ==She comes across like a wealthy, conceited, Trump-like==

    Yet endorsed by Sanders, AOC, and Schakowsky, among others.

    https://www.marienewmanforcongress.com/endorsements/


  18. - Victor Kingston - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 3:57 pm:

    ==It’s a four-way race with an incumbent getting help.

    Likable or not, political geometry has her behind, the likability issue is more to the incumbent.==

    While technically true, if the other two contenders were Newman’s main problem, wouldn’t they be polling higher than a combined 3%? Everyone has been talking about Lipinski getting help from it being multi-challenger, which he is, but based on the other two being at a combined 3% even with the MoE shouldn’t she be in the high 30s to lower 40s?

    These numbers are telling a story and assuming they’re right, and if they weren’t Newman would have released her internals to counter them, it’s not the story anyone has been assuming is being told in this district.


  19. - ChiProgressive - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 4:17 pm:

    I have seen numerous polls on this race and it is a toss-up. With higher turnout of a Prez election Lipinski should be very nervous. If Chuy comes out for Newman that may tilt this race her way.


  20. - NorthsideNoMore - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 4:36 pm:

    I’ve met scads of Congress types and just wondering how do you not like Dan Lipinski ? the guy is as easy going as it gets from that stand point. If you dont agree with his politics thats fine, but the endless personal attacks on him at events is tiresome. Get beyond one issue please !


  21. - Ok Boomer - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 4:52 pm:

    The last presidential election taught us all a few lessons about polls. Turns out there are a number of factors to consider, namely who took the poll? Older voters prefer Lip and tend to answer their phone, even when they do not know who is on the other end. I do not put much stock in this poll but I bet Lip’s camp thinks this gives him an edge. Sometimes that false notion can hurt you in the end.


  22. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 5:03 pm:

    Whether the gap between Lipinski and Newman is real or not, I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say Rush is not gonna win. /s


  23. - 'Goose - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 5:06 pm:

    ChiProgressive- I have seen numerous polling in this race that tracks with these numbers pre Jan 9 - none of them from Lipinksi camp- don’t know what you are looking at


  24. - Victor Kingston - Monday, Jan 27, 20 @ 5:16 pm:

    ChiProgressive - Please show your work. Because, if I’m Newman and I get called to give comment on this poll and my numbers or my allies numbers are different I tell the reporter that and bury the Lipinski camp. I don’t demand to see the other polls “methodology”.

    I would love to see another data point from this race that Newman or one of her allies is willing to release publically.


  25. - Mike - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 12:26 am:

    Newman caught Lipinski on cruise control last time and nearly upset him. Dude didn’t even have a modern website or much if any digital presence last time around. His team is prepared this time and are taking this race much more seriously.

    I take issue with the comment above that all her supporters are “Bernie Bros.” I am supporting her campaign and am a middle of the road Democrat. I know the DCCC supports incumbents but frankly a safe district where the Dem rep is signing on to ask the Supreme Court to consider overturning Roe, let alone voting against the Democrats’ signature legislation of the past decade, are downright disqualifying. I wish Newman’s team would do better in getting this messaging out.


  26. - A Guy - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 8:06 am:

    Mike- I think in voterland, there are plenty of Pro Life Democrats (long time traditional Democrats) who consider themselves middle of the road Democrats. Party leaders might consider recognizing them too, before they actually do leave.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 8:26 am:

    === Party leaders might consider recognizing them too, before they actually do leave.===

    Meh. Party labels are stronger than voting pro-life.

    You are a prime example.

    === The last presidential election taught us all a few lessons about polls. Turns out there are a number of factors to consider, namely who took the poll?===

    Again, the popular vote polling and results don’t reflect the electoral college factors.


  28. - Moderate Mike - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 1:20 pm:

    The way I see it, Newman might have a lot of volunteers, but it seems like most are coming from out of district and are sent to help her campaign by groups that support her like Indivisible, etc. I’m no fan of Lipinski. That said, I’m not really interested in voting for someone who condescends to anyone who disagrees with their ideas like Newman. Her supporters absolutely act like Bernie bros too and seem a little bit cultish to be quite honest.


  29. - Lipinski Fan - Tuesday, Jan 28, 20 @ 1:45 pm:

    Lipinski hasn’t done anything to Newman’s family. Newman is sour about Lipinski being more popular.


  30. - Bruce - Wednesday, Jan 29, 20 @ 10:55 pm:

    With no R presidential primary many will cross over to vote for Bernie and dan.


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