236 new cases, 3 new deaths
Monday, Mar 23, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 236 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including three deaths in Cook County; two men in their 80s and a man in his 90s.
Monroe is now also reporting a case. Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 1,285 cases in 31 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to 99 years. Cases by county can be found on the IDPH website, as well as a list of local health departments who will have the most up-to-date information.
- Nick - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 2:45 pm:
I think around 1000-1500 additional tests versus yesterday.
You really can’t extrapolate that much, there’s a thousand different asterisks and considerations in terms of who they’re testing, where, etc. But the percentage of tests coming back positive actually increased versus yesterday, which to me at least says we’re unfortunately still not doing nearly enough.
- Perrid - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 2:50 pm:
Is everyone still sick, or have some gotten better yet?
- RIJ - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 3:01 pm:
Perrid, it takes a couple weeks to recover from even a mild case.
- RIJ - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 3:06 pm:
The IDPH website claims two (2) recovered.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 3:14 pm:
@Nick -
I would feel alot better if we had 236 new cases and 7,000 negative tests, which is about the testing ratio in South Korea.
2000 tests a day is going to give folks a false sense of security while this pandemic runs amok undetected.
- Captain Obvious - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 3:40 pm:
For perspective: estimated cases in Il as posited by Mr Miller are 127,000. 9 deaths. Mortality rate thus far: .00007.
- Jocko - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 4:08 pm:
==Mortality rate thus far: .00007==
Are you willing to bet the lives of (immediate & extended) family members on those?
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 4:55 pm:
Our exponential growth model might be hitting a bottle neck due to testing because testing capacity has not been growing exponentially.
- RIJ - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 5:07 pm:
Mortality rate: The disease has not run its course in most people, and the limited data skews the stats no matter how you look at it. If you look atthe death/recovery ratio in Illinois as a snapshot of today (9 deaths, 2 recoveries), well, that’s terrifying. But until more people recover, we cannot know an accurate death rate.
- AD - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 5:16 pm:
First day in a while that the new cases has gone down from the number of new cases on the previous day. So many factors to take into consideration, but hopeful that social distancing is in the initial stages of paying off. Need a consistent week or two of it heading down to show any meaningful progress though. But each day that it isn’t doubling is good.
- Captain Obvious - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 6:10 pm:
Jocko - Yes. RIJ - I think I said so far.
- Thomas Paine - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 6:24 pm:
Internationally, this disease has had a mortality rate of 14%, with most those cases and deaths occurring in the developed world.
- thoughts matter - Monday, Mar 23, 20 @ 7:26 pm:
I’m not going to rely on an estimated number of cases compared to known deaths to determine a mortality rate. I’m going to use known numbers for both sides of that equation. 12 out of 1285 seems pretty high to me.
Furthermore, since you mentioned estimated cases, let me pose a question to you: How do you know it’s only 12 deaths? You don’t because not everyone whose died from other than an accidental cause in the last 3 months was tested for the virus.
- Dakota - Tuesday, Mar 24, 20 @ 8:35 am:
Paine, you couldn’t be more wrong. Based on John’s Hopkins numbers, Italy is the highest at 9%, and Germany right next door is at .38%, we are at 1.3% so far.