I noted yesterday that the IHME model for COVID-19 deaths in Illinois didn’t match the IDPH numbers for April 4, and looked like they added together April 4 and 5 into one day. I sent them an email yesterday and nothing changed in the latest update. If anything IHME is reporting data even farther away from the IDPH stats.
April 3: IDPH 210; IHME 210
April 4: IDPH 243; IHME 274
April 5: IDPH 274; IHME 340
April 6: IDPH 307
These are not the projections from IHME, these are the input data to their model. Their first projection is for April 6 and is 422 total deaths, and the minimum of their range is 330 compared to 307 reported by IDPH. It would be nice to see an explanation of the discrepancy.
Having cut my own hair over the weekend, I’m sympathetic to the Mayor. I only have to appear on a webcam with colleagues, she has to appear on TV for hundreds of thousands. Women are judged more harshly on their appearance than men.
Maybe it was a mistake but it was a very human mistake, and I’m willing to cut her some slack.
Rich, let me take this opportunity to say thank you for this extraordinary blog.
I thought the last decade, with a housing collapse, a former Illinois state legislator as President, overlaid by the Rauner trainwreck, were weird and exhausting.
And then 2020 happened.
So thank you again for the blog and your extensive reporting. (And Oscar)
State employees working from home is proving to be a challenge for me and my coworkers. Systems are crashing and connectivity is often poor or non-existent. Our laptops run on Windows 7 and tech support ended last Jan. I can’t open many email attachments because of incompatibility. The State simply didn’t have the IT infrastructure in place for this to work.
This horrible and tragic pandemic has put a new and pointed light on governors.
While the federal government has refused to use the levers they have or used them in restricted ways which isn’t helpful at times, governors had to basically run small countries, bidding against other “countries” (states) while others, like Oregon helping New York, are dispatching diplomatically aid to others in need.
Border “countries” see this situation different, governors there might see our governor one way, while they both see a 3rd governor another way.
All 50 of these countries are bidding against FEMA, which ends with a rising cost of losing bids, and still not getting all these small “countries” need.
A reason the Articles of Confederation was considered weak was the distancing of one nation in more aspects. Those touting state’s rights are ones with less restrictive rules that even this White House suggests.
Governors should be judged how they decided to ensure the safety and well-being of their states is being implemented, and how they listen to health professionals to save lives. I’m grateful here in Illinois.
It’s not a mistake that high-level leaders with (allegedly) functioning teams around them make. How do they let her walk into that trap and how do they not prepare her with the right response? If JB would’ve done that (which he wouldn’t have gone about it the way she did because he has sense) his team would’ve better prepared him on how to respond. Also, I would argue that she really hasn’t been that impressive through all of this, but she’s been able to follow JB’s leadership, empathy and decision making, and that’s made her look good. Also some meme maker helped humanize her in a way she and her team could never quite do. It might’ve been a little better if she highlighted in her response the truth that women are judged much more critically and superficially than men and it’s that blowback that requires her to be much more aware of her appearance. She couldn’t articulate that and so her response made it worse. As usual, she gets in her own way.
Once the crisis passes, there will be time to analyze how well the governments (state, local and federal) responded to the pandemic. It will also be a time to consider how well the same governments were prepared for COVID-19.
Given how Illinois has operated for too long, my guess is that equipment and supplies were not stockpiled here and what was on hand was quickly depleted.
Proud that as a state vendor, our agency was able to move to a 100% work-from-home stance early (3-16-20) and did not miss a beat providing essential services. Very appreciative of the staff who worked hard to make this happen way before this was a blip on the radar.
== While I don’t think it’s the biggest deal in the world (or even
a big deal at all)==
When you’re telling people who cut and style hair for a living that they can’t work, and can’t receive a paycheck, and then turning around and bringing in your own hair stylist…it’s not a small deal. The phrase “let them eat cake” comes to mind.
- West Side the Best Side - Tuesday, Apr 7, 20 @ 11:12 am:
Covid 2020 - Nothing on the Google machine or the news. Was that supposed to be snark? Lori’s hair cut was tone deaf after her PSAs and her response just arrogant politician like. JB just comes across as a real human being.
- West Side the Best Side - Tuesday, Apr 7, 20 @ 11:19 am:
Grandson - Thanks, question about snark answered. Looks like you posted while I was writing.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Apr 7, 20 @ 11:21 am:
“Covid 2020 - Nothing on the Google machine or the news. Was that supposed to be snark?”
Pawnee High School (about 15 miles south of Springfield) is the first school I’ve heard of, at least in the Springfield area, to have already announced their Prom is cancelled. They will definitely not be the last.
Lori gets a haircut and people lose their minds. Meanwhile Toni, Kim, Tom, and Tim play hot potato with the disaster that has been the County’s Criminal Justice system and Jail. It’s the largest hotpsot in the country and the usual suspects are looking for something to squash “Stay at home” Lori’s popularity.