* New York Times…

Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture. These increases belie arguments that the virus is only killing people who would have died anyway from other causes. Instead, the virus has brought a pattern of deaths unlike anything seen in recent years. […]

We compared these provisional death counts with the average number of deaths each week over the past five years. Public health researchers use the term “excess deaths” to describe a gap between recent trends and a typical level of deaths.

It’s difficult to know whether the differences between excess deaths and the official counts of coronavirus deaths reflect an undercounting of coronavirus deaths or a surge in deaths from other causes. It’s probably a mix of both.

Chart…

If those percentages hold up, by my count that would mean around 1,190 2,237 more excess deaths as of yesterday than the latest reported 2,125 COVID-19 total [Thanks to a mathematician for the correct forumla: 2,125*1,400/682 - 2,125 = 2,237]

       

14 Comments - notsosure - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:07 am: This is such a strong counter-argument to the “they was dying anyway” nonsense. Yes, that 90-year old who is now listed as a COVID death was maybe going to die of pneumonia next week so maybe we can argue whether or not to attribute his passing to the pandemic, but how do you explain this? - Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:08 am: We’ve done a terrible job testing when compared to other states, so it would make sense if we had a significant gap compared to states with better testing availability. It’d be interesting to see this data by county as a means for identifying any specific region that is suffering from under testing leading to under reporting leading to increased confidence in those communities that the virus isn’t a problem. - Bruce (no not him) - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:10 am: Some of the excess deaths could be from people scared to go to ER because of the Covid. Several anecdotal stories of regular ER visits way down. Maybe when testing backlog is clearing, autopsies will show the truth. - Blue Beard - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:17 am: But the conspiracy theorists will say that we are over-counting how many people are dying. Can’t argue with Trumpers or the Berners that spew nonsense to fit their agendas. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:17 am: Because of the ongoing pandemic crisis, a large number of these deaths will not be investigated for the novel coronavirus. - thoughts matter - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:19 am: Yes, possibly some deaths are due to people avoiding the ER. Some may be due to people not getting chemo or radiation ( causing cancer to overtake them) or stress causing heart attacks. However, accidents and other odd situations should have seriously decreased due to people staying home. That’s why auto insurance companies are refunding money. There is no explanation for a 50% increase in deaths other than an unexpected serious illness coming out of nowhere, such as this virus. - Flapdoodle - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:41 am: Excess deaths — such a lovely term. /s The analysis demonstrates yet again how very real this pandemic is, despite the scoffers, denialists, naysayers, and partisan spinners. It’s beyond me why people are not only able but feel it necessary to continue denying the actuality of something that’s demonstrably right in front of them. There’s something else more sobering that analyses like this demonstrate, our collective vulnerability to natural processes despite what we like to think of as advanced scientific and technological knowledge. There were plenty of warnings well in advance of this pandemic that such an event was not only possible but likely. But such warnings make us very uncomfortable so we bury them away. As is said after every such event, we need to do better. - Birdseed - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:42 am: === - Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 10:08 am: We’ve done a terrible job testing when compared to other states, === Yes, and the lack of testing in Illinois really accentuates how poorly we have done overall. A couple days ago, the Governor was asked why we are doing so poorly compared to California. He attributed it to the fact that we are finally ramping up the testing. That’s absurd. California has 3 times our population, has tested 2.4 times that of Illinois, and we still have more cases and deaths due to Covid 19. How does that square up? - Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 11:02 am: “A survey of nine major hospitals earlier this month showed the number of severe heart attacks being treated in U.S hospitals had dropped by nearly 40% since the novel coronavirus took hold in March, leaving cardiologists worried about a second wave of deaths caused indirectly by Covid-19″ https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-phobia-keeping-heart-patients-away-from-er/ - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 11:20 am: ===caused indirectly by Covid-19=== That’s not indirect, that’s direct. I had a situation like this in my own family. They’re not going to the doctor or the hospital because of the virus. That’s a direct cause, IMHO. - walker - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 12:10 pm: This reflects the serious impacts of COVID 19, that go beyond respiratory illness. These include circulatory problems linked to strokes and heart damage. We weren’t looking for that linkage early on. We continue to learn. - theCardinal - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 12:49 pm: Rich I agree… How many people are simply staying away or can’t see thier regular Dr. for other issues that may cause incease medical situation, because of the pandemic medical response - Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 3:26 pm: When do casinos reopen - horsesmouth - Wednesday, Apr 29, 20 @ 4:41 pm: One of the answers to why California had fewer deaths than Ilinois. Governor Gavin Newsome used key information from very sophisticated epidemiological data from mapping. 60 minutes did a segment on it and it is an impressive tool https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-outbreak-computer-algorithm-artificial-intelligence/ Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.