Illinois could lose close to $560 million in gas tax revenue this year because of the coronavirus pandemic, which may delay some big state road and rail projects, according to a new report. […]
But the report from the Illinois Economic Policy Institute, a non-profit think tank, found that with road travel down by almost half, the state could lose $296 million to $559 million this year alone, depending on different scenarios. […]
The scenario for state funding could be even worse than the report predicts, and could extend into next year and beyond, said Frank Manzo IV, report co-author and the institute’s policy director.
“If we do not have more testing, if we don’t have more treatments and a clinically proven vaccine… there is a chance that our estimate is conservative,” Manzo said.
* Press release…
“As part of the Rebuild Illinois plan, annual revenues from the state’s Motor Fuel Tax (MFT) were expected to increase from $1.3 billion to nearly $2.6 billion,” said study-co-author and ILEPI transportation analyst Mary Tyler. “After applying the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning’s (CMAP) estimates on pandemic related travel disruptions to three scenarios, with travel disruptions lasting from 6 to 10 months, we found that the state could under-perform expectations on MFT revenue by between $300 million and $560 million in 2020 alone.”
That upper-end estimate uses a 10-month disruption model, with the virus being most acute through August. The lower-end is based on a 6-month disruption, with the most acute period lasting through May.
The study is here.