As first reported by National Journal, a new poll conducted on behalf of the DCCC IE in Illinois’ 13th Congressional District finds Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan leading incumbent Congressman Rodney Davis by five points, 48% - 43%. Former VP Joe Biden also leads President Trump in the district, 53% - 40%.
In 2018, IL-13 was one of the closest elections in the country with Dirksen Londrigan coming within one point – a mere 2,058 votes – of unseating Davis, and the race is considered one of the top pickup opportunities for Democrats across the country.
“This latest poll makes clear that working people in Central Illinois are ready to reject Congressman Rodney Davis’ career in Washington of looking out for himself and his special interest friends,” said DCCC Spokesperson Courtney Rice. “From his long record of voting to gut affordable health care and protections for people with pre-existing conditions to his corporate tax giveaway that hamstrung families, Davis has made it clear that he’ll always prioritize himself and his donors over his constituents.”
The DCCC has been on air in IL-13 since Labor Day. “Secret,” which is currently on air, slams Davis who twice voted against transparency for the federal loan program meant to help small businesses during the pandemic – after his own family took more than $1 million in loans. “Working For” and “Perfect Match” were previously on air and highlighted how Davis takes millions in contributions from special interests and votes their way in Washington.
The poll was conducted on behalf of the DCCC IE by Tulchin Research among 400 likely voters between October 1-6, 2020. The margin of error is +/-4.9.
President Trump won that district by 5.5 points four years ago.
* Meanwhile…
Betsy Dirksen Londrigan continues to show strength in her campaign, announcing today that she raised nearly $1.55 million in the latest FEC fundraising quarter, which ended September 30. Dirksen Londrigan outraised Congressman Rodney Davis the last three quarters, and will report more than $1.3 million cash on hand to finish out the final month of the campaign.
Dirksen Londrigan’s campaign is powered by the people, with over 85% of her donations coming in amounts of $100 or less. Betsy also refuses to accept corporate PAC money, now or when in Congress, and she will not be beholden to anyone except the voters who elect her to Congress.
That couldn’t stand in clearer contrast to Davis who has accepted more than $3 million from corporate PACs and more than $200,000 from Big Pharma corporate PACs, all while voting in their best interests rather than the interests of Central Illinois families.
* And…
Today, Rodney Davis’ campaign for Congress released a new ad titled “Shannon,” which highlights Rodney’s work to protect healthcare coverage for individual’s with pre-existing conditions and make healthcare more affordable.
The ad features Rodney’s wife Shannon, who is a registered nurse and 21-year survivor of colon cancer. She was able to receive treatment for her cancer diagnosis and live thanks to her healthcare coverage. Rodney believes that all Americans should have access to those same healthcare protections because it will save lives. This issue is personal to him.
I believe the last internal polling that the Londrigan campaign released had Trump down 7 and Betsy down 1. So now they’re saying there has been a 6 point swing in both of those numbers since then? Hard to believe.
So the Dirksen Londrigan poll has her up on Davis by 5%, but the margin of error is 4.9%? Sounds like this poll has them tied, or very close to at the least.
I’ve been skeptical of Londrigan chances, figuring this year Trump brings out Davis voters who didn’t show up in ‘18 because Trump wasn’t on the ballot. But if Biden wins the district double digits, that doesn’t matter.
Pedantic point: this poll did not come from the Londrigan campaign, it came from an independent expenditure committee. Any movement between a previous internal poll released by the Londrigan campaign and this one may be due to shifting voter attitudes and/or may be due to a difference in methodology between the two pollsters.
In the last week I’ve seen the Davis campaign commercials get more nasty. Based on that I had my suspicions that Londrigan must be gaining on him. That would be a big flip for the Democrats.
The News-Gazette endorsed Dirksen Londrigan today. It’s not clear whether anyone will be persuaded by the endorsement, but it reflects changing public opinion about the race since ‘18.
The margin of error in an election poll reflects the 95% confidence interval of the estimate. So, it is not correct to dismiss these results as “almost a tie,” although that is often done. The right interpretation is that 95% of the time, a poll conducted in this way will estimate advantages to Dirksen Londrigan of between 0.1 and 9.9 percent. And, since this is a two tailed confidence interval, 2.5 percent of the time the advantage is above 9.9%. Now, this is a snapshot, and a lot of things could change. But, as far as the statistical uncertainty of this measurement on this day is concerned, this pretty strongly favors Dirksen Londrigan.
It’s infuriating that Davis is trying to tell us he’ll protect folks with pre-existing conditions when he’s voted against doing exactly that at every opportunity. Clearly he’s hoping the voters don’t know anything about his record.
The only poll that matters is Election Day. I think voters are starting to realize how much of a con Davis has been. His strategy is to work with Democratic members to sponsor as many bills as possible on the easy stuff; yet, he votes with GOP on the major issues like AHCA and the tax scam. I think many voters are starting to realize this, and Rodney seems to be fearmongering low info rural voters with Madigan ads.
- CubsFan16 - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 2:42 pm:
I believe the last internal polling that the Londrigan campaign released had Trump down 7 and Betsy down 1. So now they’re saying there has been a 6 point swing in both of those numbers since then? Hard to believe.
- WSJ Paywall - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 2:44 pm:
Republican ju-jitsu on pre-existing conditions won’t work - can’t have it both ways.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 2:44 pm:
===Hard to believe===
Have you been watching other polls lately? Not hard to believe. Whether they hold up is another question.
- Saluki24 - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 2:46 pm:
So the Dirksen Londrigan poll has her up on Davis by 5%, but the margin of error is 4.9%? Sounds like this poll has them tied, or very close to at the least.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 2:48 pm:
The big questions are …
How has Davis voted on the repeal of Obamacare.
Will people think David cares about healthcare like he cares about his family’s healthcare.
That’s the ad and it’s usefulness in a nutshell
- BC - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 2:52 pm:
I’ve been skeptical of Londrigan chances, figuring this year Trump brings out Davis voters who didn’t show up in ‘18 because Trump wasn’t on the ballot. But if Biden wins the district double digits, that doesn’t matter.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 2:56 pm:
===Sounds like this poll has them tied===
Or she’s up by 10.
- walker - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:03 pm:
“We shall see”, is my standard reaction to any candidate-sponsored poll.
I’d agree this race is competitive.
- The Captain - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:07 pm:
Pedantic point: this poll did not come from the Londrigan campaign, it came from an independent expenditure committee. Any movement between a previous internal poll released by the Londrigan campaign and this one may be due to shifting voter attitudes and/or may be due to a difference in methodology between the two pollsters.
- The Dude Abides - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:18 pm:
In the last week I’ve seen the Davis campaign commercials get more nasty. Based on that I had my suspicions that Londrigan must be gaining on him. That would be a big flip for the Democrats.
- Kayak - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:23 pm:
Treadstone: The polls are slipping, time to activate the asset. Jason Bourne? No, Levi Lowell.
- 61822 - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:28 pm:
The News-Gazette endorsed Dirksen Londrigan today. It’s not clear whether anyone will be persuaded by the endorsement, but it reflects changing public opinion about the race since ‘18.
- Frank talks - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:34 pm:
===Sounds like this poll has them tied===
=====Or she’s up by 10.=======
@Saluki
Polling is funny that way, kind of fits and says what you want it to say but you should probably look at it both ways before jumping
- Sox in 21 - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:36 pm:
If butcher can pull this one out again he should be the one moving the ILGOP forward in 2022.
- 61822 - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:44 pm:
The margin of error in an election poll reflects the 95% confidence interval of the estimate. So, it is not correct to dismiss these results as “almost a tie,” although that is often done. The right interpretation is that 95% of the time, a poll conducted in this way will estimate advantages to Dirksen Londrigan of between 0.1 and 9.9 percent. And, since this is a two tailed confidence interval, 2.5 percent of the time the advantage is above 9.9%. Now, this is a snapshot, and a lot of things could change. But, as far as the statistical uncertainty of this measurement on this day is concerned, this pretty strongly favors Dirksen Londrigan.
- Al - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 3:52 pm:
I wish they could both lose.
- KBS - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 4:07 pm:
It’s infuriating that Davis is trying to tell us he’ll protect folks with pre-existing conditions when he’s voted against doing exactly that at every opportunity. Clearly he’s hoping the voters don’t know anything about his record.
- IL13Voter - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 4:13 pm:
The only poll that matters is Election Day. I think voters are starting to realize how much of a con Davis has been. His strategy is to work with Democratic members to sponsor as many bills as possible on the easy stuff; yet, he votes with GOP on the major issues like AHCA and the tax scam. I think many voters are starting to realize this, and Rodney seems to be fearmongering low info rural voters with Madigan ads.
- Norseman - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 4:17 pm:
[Fingers crossed emoji]
- King Louis XVI - Friday, Oct 9, 20 @ 4:21 pm:
— Tulchin Research—
MJM’s pollster. Top notch firm.