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NRCC has poll showing Bustos on the bubble

Thursday, Oct 15, 2020

* Hmm…

* National Politico

Democrats don’t put much stock in the poll, and think BUSTOS is going to wallop KING. BUT … BUSTOS did just go negative on KING, knocking her from being from Chicago and looking to cut health care.

– THE DCCC RESPONDS: “The rumors are true — Chairwoman Bustos represents a district that swung 17 points toward Republicans in 2016 to vote for Donald Trump, and her constant focus on the needs of the communities she serves is why she’s continued to win her district handily year after year. What’s unclear is who the NRCC troll factory thinks they’re surprising with this poll when they have much bigger problems to deal with on every front.

“The fact that Cheri Bustos has won big in a Trump district is exactly the reason she is the right person to ensure the 30 Democrats in this caucus who also represent Trump won districts come back in three weeks.”

The new Bustos ad is here.

The King ads are here, here and here. They’re pretty good spots.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Pop It Off - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 8:01 am:

    I’d be extremely surprised if this even ends up close. King’s name ID was extremely low coming out of the primaries. Although I have seen a number of her signs around the district.

  2. - Nick - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 8:15 am:

    It’s generally a poor sign when your own campaign/campaign arm releases an ad showing you down by 5 points.

    Interestingly enough, they also didn’t release numbers for the Presidential Race.

  3. - iggy - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 8:23 am:

    =It’s generally a poor sign when your own campaign/campaig…=

    ummmm. flat out no. you clearly don’t know anything about the 17th or this race. Bustos is hailed as the national hero for crushing it in 2016 even when her district voted for Trump, Bigly.

    EJK is a lousy fundraiser, and thus Bustos probably assumed she could coast to another 10 point plus win over a no name republican.

    Releasing this poll is a big deal. and you’ve completely not grasped the historical situation. try doing a bit of digging next time before you rush to a foolish conclusion.

  4. - Yep - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 8:46 am:

    Like professional sports, democrats have overplayed their hand. I’ve been shocked at the number of life long democrats that have privately said they can’t vote for a democrat. Too far left and the unchecked violence playing out on tv night after night has folks terrified. So much so that there are five million new gun owners this year. Women, minorities, even liberals are becoming first time gun owners. Doubtful these new gun owners will be voting democratic. Yep election night will be a wild ride.

  5. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 9:00 am:

    === democrats have overplayed their hand. I’ve been shocked at the number of life long democrats that have privately said they can’t vote for a democrat.===

    Your anecdotal is compelling, yet nationally the Senate is in danger of flipping blue, here in Illinois, Casten and Underwood, in districts formally seen as safe GOP are seen now as Dem holds.

    To this poll, where you’re down 5, releasing it, Oberweis in September, 2019, released a poll showing he was down 9 points to the incumbent.

    Dunno how 19 days out, showing you’re down 5 is a motivator to vote every today (which we can in Illinois) or motivated on election day to vote for someone touting being down.

  6. - sulla - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 9:09 am:

    Lest y’all forget - Bustos defeated a candidate in 2016 whose campaign war chest fell just shy of twelve thousand dollars per FollowTheMoney dot org. In 2018, she beat another candidate that she outraised by a factor of 190x after a more serious republican challenger dropped out of the race unexpectedly.

    King is a real opponent with real funding behind her. It’s not surprising that this race is going to be way closer than the past two.

  7. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 9:24 am:

    I feel like it’s been a month or two since I’ve seen a Cheri Bustos commercial in the Peoria TV market and I have definitely seen more commercials for her opponent than her this cycle.. although that does get lost in the shuffle of non-stop pro-anti fair tax ads, pro-anti Kilbride as, and Koehler-Burress ads.

    I think Cheri prevails this year but very curious what her district looks like after redistricting and whether IL Dems will figure out how desperately they need to push out Madigan once they no longer have Trump to run against.

  8. - JoanP - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 9:33 am:

    =Women, minorities, even liberals are becoming first time gun owners. Doubtful these new gun owners will be voting democratic. =

    You’re wrong. Those folks are buying guns because they are concerned about groups like the Proud Boys. Because they believe we might need a resistance movement to stop fascism.

  9. - CubsFan16 - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 9:40 am:

    I guess it is “Good” for King that she is -only- down 5 points. But, as said above, Bustos won by 20+ points in 16 and 18. They didn’t have money or were legitimate candidates, so -yes- King will do better than they did, it’d be hard not to. But she will still lose by a decent margin, probably somewhere between 7-11 points.

  10. - Not a Billionaire - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 9:43 am:

    I am in the district. King will do better than the last but the NRCC has been releasing no polls and the release this one 5 down ? If you look at signs which is well…..they look about 50 50 in the more rural part I am in . King signs way out numberTrump.

  11. - Yep - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 9:45 am:

    Uh JoanP as part of my job I actually talk to real people, gun shops, manufacturers who are buying and selling and why. I don’t rely on political spin and talking points.

  12. - Rich Hill - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 9:55 am:

    Aside from the 5-point lead, an incumbent with 49% is tricky to beat. If these numbers are representative of the district, King has to ensure virtually all of the undecideds a) turn out to vote at all, and b) break over 6 to 1 for the challenger.

    It’s not impossible. But this scenario reminds me of Democrats’ optimism at beating George W. Bush in late 2004.

  13. - regardless of party - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:05 am:

    A lot of people undecided have told me that Esther Joy King ads in a military uniform are buzzkills. I don’t think either side should exploit the military uniform in ads.

  14. - Nagidam - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:12 am:

    ===You’re wrong. Those folks are buying guns because they are concerned about groups like the Proud Boys. Because they believe we might need a resistance movement to stop fascism.===

    @JoanP, this may be the most hilarious regurgitated talking point of this election cycle. The rise in gun sales is pandemic related. It’s violence related. Add these two together and and there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the urban environments. Add in the “Defund Police” campaign you see the rise of new gun owners. I for one am happy to see minority gun ownership.

  15. - Annonin' - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:19 am:

    Could someone tell the GOPies they forgot to tell voters who CommandoKing is running against. Many thought she was an Iowa candidate….Now we know she was imported from Chicago by Washington Insiders….TTFN

  16. - Jersey - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:22 am:

    I drive through that district all the time. Signs don’t vote, but King has marked a lot of turf, and you’d think the chair of the DCCC wouldn’t get beat on the ground. But I guess if your whole image is AstroTurf, no one should be surprised when you have to buy billboards instead of getting real people to support you.

  17. - west wing - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:31 am:

    King, who just moved to the district, is not well known at all. Her campaign kind of popped up just in time for filing. Bustos ran against weak candidates in 2018 and 2016 - both spent less than $25,000. King will make this closer, but Bustos works hard with much better name ID. Guessing this race will land in the 55-45 category on election night.

  18. - 1983 - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:35 am:

    ===EJK is a lousy fundraiser===
    Lousy? I mean, she’s raised $1.65M, she’s up with solid TV across 3 markets, and she’s closed the gap to 5 points. In that part of IL, that’s not nothing.

  19. - XonXoff - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:38 am:

    – Too far left and the unchecked violence playing out on tv night after night has folks terrified. – 

    Protest co-opting by looters is certainly part of the problem — and the resulting fear plays right into the hands of the gun supply chain — as do mass shootings, an explosion of desperate unemployed citizens, and a normalization of AR-strapped-militia-wannabe-vigilantes (now allegedly plotting to kidnap a Governor they disagree with).
    Fear and unrest sells guns.  Always has.  They use fear like a lever.  The more unrest the better, for gun sales.  No surprises about record gun sales in this increasingly hostile environment.

    If Democrats get out the vote this time, Bustos wins her race.

  20. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:45 am:

    ===unchecked violence playing out on tv night after night===

    Do you live in Portland? Riots stopped a while ago here in Illinois.

  21. - Cheryl44 - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:10 am:

    Yep, I’m a real person and a socialist because it’s possible to be both of those things. I don’t own a gun but I do know how to shoot.

  22. - Dotnonymous - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:13 am:

    - Yep - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 8:46 am:

    Keep getting the real info at the gun shop…where everything smells like gun powder.

    What could we do without guns in our bloody hands?

  23. - JoanP - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:26 am:

    I talk to real people, too. Obviously not the same real people.

  24. - Lincoln Park Debs - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:31 am:

    Hey Yep,

    I’ve got a strong feeling your anecdotal convos with new gun owners is really reflective of the big picture with this election. The scientific pollsters that correctly called the 2018 election were only 1.5% wrong nationally in 2016 are totally wrong. Rupert Murdoch himself predicting a Joe Biden blowout and Dem sweep is also completely misguided. Six dudes buying ARs to fight the antifa military in the middle of IL are the real canaries in the coal mine showing a Republican sweep.

  25. - Meechum - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:54 am:

    === I talk to real people, too. Obviously not the same real people===
    @JoanP then shouldn’t you be on the trail talking to those people 19 days out rather than floundering in the comments section?

  26. - Solid - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 12:20 pm:

    No one knows who she is? Read the polling memo Rich linked to - 70% name ID and 2:1 fave/unfave? That fits with closing the gap against a 4 term, basically untested paper tiger like Bustos. It looks to me like she’s got a glass jaw and got caught believing her own press. She may pull it out, but if I’m Betsy DL, I’d much rather have that 500k/week Bustos is spending to help me chase Davis.

  27. - Westender - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 1:29 pm:

    I live in this district. I can tell you, if I asked 5 people who EJK was, 1 maybe 2 people would know her name. In my area she has almost no name recognition. There are very few signs up in my community for EJK and many Bustos signs. Considering the direction of the National election, and considering most polls are pointing to a “blue wave”, I would be absolutely shocked if these numbers were even a little true. I guess time will tell.

  28. - Top of the State - Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 5:52 pm:

    I have noticed that King is keeping up in her ads. She usually follows a Bustos ad on TV. There are more Esther signs than Bustos in our area. This probably depends on how Trump does in this part of the state.

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