Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Pritzker talks contact tracing
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Pritzker talks contact tracing

Friday, Nov 6, 2020

* This is being distributed by the governor’s office


A press release is coming on this, but the governor explained today that outside Cook County and Chicago, contact tracers were able to reach 90 percent of those who test positive. The city and the county have real issues that need to be fixed. I’ll be updating as he goes along.

* He talked about outbreaks and exposures…

These are two words that get thrown around incorrectly, a lot, but they actually have very specific distinct meanings in public health. To start, let’s talk about an outbreak.

The location of an outbreak is more difficult to identify than the location of an exposure. An outbreak is defined as five or more cases that are linked to a specific setting during a 14 day period. Linked cases must be from different households and not already connected from other sources. And while certain settings like a college campus a factory or group home may make it easier to determine an outbreak, most establishments that are frequented by the public like restaurants, or grocery stores are not easily determined as the setting of an outbreak, based upon those rules. Add on to that that this disease is a respiratory in nature and a person might take some time before they start to show symptoms. And you can see why where outbreaks occur is important information, but far from the whole picture.

Please pardon all transcription errors.

* Exposures…

Much more useful for identifying regular locations that amplify the spread of the virus is exposure data. Particularly useful for the average person who wants to design their day to day in a way that reduces the highest risks.

Exposure data comes from contact tracers talking to confirmed positive covid patients about the places that they went in the time before they were symptomatic or tested positive for. For most people, especially those who don’t have the ability to work from home. That’s going to amount to multiple locations.

The day before a person tested positive for example, she might go to work, and then stop at a grocery store, and then stop and get drinks with friends at a bar that’s three exposure locations, and that’s just one day. Why is this important? Because exposure data is going to give you a sense of where you’re at the greatest risk for catching COVID-19, and particularly when we see community transmission as high as it is around the state, the risk is going to scale up across the board. Remember, masks are vitally important and the best tool for reducing risk but even with a mask. You don’t eliminate risk, especially when the inside in proximity to other people. And when you’re taking your mask off in public to eat, or to drink, or even to chat. You’re upping your risk.

So here’s our exposure data, to date, in Illinois, as you would guess workplaces in schools are going to be big. Because anyone reporting to their workplace every day, or any student or teacher engaged in in person learning, who tested positive is probably going to list school or work as a place they were before they tested positive.

But the single largest category of exposure locations statewide is restaurants and bars. And we see similar trends on a region by region basis, which you can review on the IDPH website. This aligns with the CDC study that came out earlier this fall. The study shows that when a COVID positive person could not identify a close contact that may have given them they were twice as likely to report dining in a restaurant in the two weeks prior to diagnosis.

These are facts. And if the facts change we can change our response, but all the data we have so far. points to these locations where people move, remove their masks in close contact for an extended period of time, as a major source of risk and, frankly, importantly, our mitigation plans, reflect the fact that those are a major source of risk.

* School exposure data…

Moving to school exposure data. I know the size of that school column on the exposure sites might alarm some parents. So I want to offer a couple of caveats on this data.

First, this is exposure data, not necessarily the exact location where a student or teacher actually contracted COVID-19. Anyone who goes into a school building regularly would have likely reported school as a place they went before they became a confirmed positive. That doesn’t at all mean that school is where they contracted the disease originally. And remember that masks are required in school and are not intended to be removed for extended periods of time.

Second, while we have school based data broken out by school on our website, this is exposure data that comes through contact tracings at local health department’s. The best data for any one specific school will come from the area local public health department. Schools are required to let parents and local health officials know about any positive cases. In terms of school outbreaks we have 10 schools that have currently reported confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks across the state. Again local health departments will be the best source of information on any specific school.

These outbreaks do not include secondary cases that may occur in a household among a household member who’s not been on the school grounds, but they do include those associated with before and after school programs like sports.

* Back to outbreaks…

In our statewide outbreak data we see a pattern of formal group gatherings, making up the majority of our confirmed outbreaks. Again, these are the settings where it’s easiest to trace the origins of someone’s illness and declare a situation a formal outbreak. I mentioned that the reasons why outbreaks are difficult to pin down, and I’ll add that with rates of spread the way they are right now, it’s only going to get harder, because this disease isn’t concentrated. Right now, it’s widespread.

…Adding… The promised press release is here.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

9 Comments
  1. - Keyrock - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 2:41 pm:

    I guess he’s heard the comments on this blog (and elsewhere). It’s good to see the discussion.


  2. - Captain Obvious - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 3:12 pm:

    I will worry most about outbreaks. Interesting they claim highest risk of exposure in restaurants/bars but that is in no way substantiated by the data on traceable outbreaks.


  3. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 3:17 pm:

    ===I will worry most about outbreaks===

    Of course you will because it feeds into your ideological talking points.


  4. - Thomas Paine - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 3:31 pm:

    The standard for contact tracing is for the infected person to be contacted and their contacts traced within 48 hours.

    It does no good to talk to someone four days later.

    56 percent is not good at all, especially when that’s only 2/3 of the state, but of those do we know how many were contacted in 48 hours?


  5. - DuPage Saint - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 3:40 pm:

    This is not a snark and I am not trying to be funny but if there are 9 or ten thousand new cases a day and say each person met with ten people while infected, statistically shouldn’t we all be exposed soon?


  6. - very old soil - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 3:44 pm:

    And that’s why everyone should wear a mask, socially distance and avoid crowded places


  7. - Jibba - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 3:56 pm:

    Of the outbreak locations, the only places where you must remove your mask are bars and restaurants. Makes sense to target them first.


  8. - Mike in central illinois - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 4:23 pm:

    Let’s ask the governor why his state workers can’t work and sit home paid? Why keep beating up legitimate businesses and passing the blame to them. People will get sick, people will get better, if not they may perish. Outta your control, I’ve had it, my families had it,,I go to work in it every day,,,yet watch state workers sit home. Where’s your family JB?


  9. - Consistency - Friday, Nov 6, 20 @ 4:38 pm:

    In a previous chart they provided on October 5th, the category of “other” was labeled as the single highest “category” of exposure/contact.

    At the time “other” was identified as a catchall for anything not covered by the specific categories, including things like vacations, family gatherings, weddings, and college parties.

    This is not reflected in the current chart/metrics. It would be nice to get an explanation of the change even if the explanation is that they separated out the locations within the “other” category to let them stand on their own.

    https://capitolfax.com/2020/10/05/state-contact-tracing-identifies-restaurantsbars-as-top-single-covid-19-suspected-source-followed-by-non-office-workplaces/


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Open thread
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today's edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller