Madigan is literally under siege
Monday, Nov 30, 2020
* This is a common mistake…
No way does Madigan have 55 solid votes. And flipping five of the 18 who have so far publicly declared their opposition is gonna be next to impossible. Don’t live in a fantasy world. Show us the roll call from this list…
Of those 18 legislators, who specifically can he flip and how specifically can he flip them (not to mention the others who haven’t publicly declared either way)? I’ve yet to see that list. Also, tell me why they would surrender when they clearly have the upper hand here.
* The 18+ House Democrats have laid siege to the House Speaker. They went into this knowing that Madigan would resist. And they know that if Madigan prolongs this battle during a worldwide pandemic when the state is facing so many problems, the heat on him will be the hottest it has ever been. The Rauner/Blagojevich script has flipped.
The opposition also knows that the heat on them for flipping back to Madigan would be more destructive than a thermonuclear device…
Three weeks is nothing when nobody was expecting any action out of the General Assembly until April or May anyway.
Also, remember the massive negative press those two House Democrats received when they voted against Rod Blagojevich’s impeachment because they wanted jobs? I don’t think they ever got those jobs.
* House Rule 1…
* Again, look at this as if it’s a siege, because it is. Not all sieges work, of course, but Madigan likely can’t dispatch another “army” out to defeat them in the field because there is simply not enough of an incentive to surrender (and his most effective muscle, Tim Mapes and Mike McClain, have been tossed out of the kingdom). Who’s gonna give them jobs or contracts? ComEd? Anyone who touches them will be nuked in the media.
Madigan can try to wait them out, but he’s the one who will take almost all the heat for causing destruction, not them. He can even try to lock them in with a caucus position, but they can simply skip the meeting.
Also, the opposition doesn’t need a candidate to run against Madigan at the moment. They’re taking this one methodical step at a time: First, force him aside; then, work on a deal.
* The hard and fast rule for the past 30 years has been “Never bet against the Speaker.” But one should never say never. And in that spirit, I’m not predicting Madigan’s definite political demise.
Madigan’s best bet would probably be to lock in the majority of his members on a concrete position of “Madigan gets two more years or go fly a kite.” But, man, the damage he would risk causing the state and his party to preserve his own political power would be catastrophic.