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Madigan is literally under siege
Monday, Nov 30, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller * This is a common mistake…
No way does Madigan have 55 solid votes. And flipping five of the 18 who have so far publicly declared their opposition is gonna be next to impossible. Don’t live in a fantasy world. Show us the roll call from this list…
Of those 18 legislators, who specifically can he flip and how specifically can he flip them (not to mention the others who haven’t publicly declared either way)? I’ve yet to see that list. Also, tell me why they would surrender when they clearly have the upper hand here. * The 18+ House Democrats have laid siege to the House Speaker. They went into this knowing that Madigan would resist. And they know that if Madigan prolongs this battle during a worldwide pandemic when the state is facing so many problems, the heat on him will be the hottest it has ever been. The Rauner/Blagojevich script has flipped. The opposition also knows that the heat on them for flipping back to Madigan would be more destructive than a thermonuclear device…
Three weeks is nothing when nobody was expecting any action out of the General Assembly until April or May anyway. Also, remember the massive negative press those two House Democrats received when they voted against Rod Blagojevich’s impeachment because they wanted jobs? I don’t think they ever got those jobs. * House Rule 1…
* Again, look at this as if it’s a siege, because it is. Not all sieges work, of course, but Madigan likely can’t dispatch another “army” out to defeat them in the field because there is simply not enough of an incentive to surrender (and his most effective muscle, Tim Mapes and Mike McClain, have been tossed out of the kingdom). Who’s gonna give them jobs or contracts? ComEd? Anyone who touches them will be nuked in the media. Madigan can try to wait them out, but he’s the one who will take almost all the heat for causing destruction, not them. He can even try to lock them in with a caucus position, but they can simply skip the meeting. Also, the opposition doesn’t need a candidate to run against Madigan at the moment. They’re taking this one methodical step at a time: First, force him aside; then, work on a deal. * The hard and fast rule for the past 30 years has been “Never bet against the Speaker.” But one should never say never. And in that spirit, I’m not predicting Madigan’s definite political demise. Madigan’s best bet would probably be to lock in the majority of his members on a concrete position of “Madigan gets two more years or go fly a kite.” But, man, the damage he would risk causing the state and his party to preserve his own political power would be catastrophic.
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- The Captain - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 12:58 pm:
The beginning is known and the end is not in doubt but the middle is going to be wild.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:09 pm:
Can’t wait to see Chuck Goudie camped outside of 65th and Pulaski. A real Peter Arnett.
- Former Downstater - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:10 pm:
Not included in the 18 is Rep-elect Denyse Wang Stoneback, who beat Rep. Kalish. I’d be hard pressed to consider her as a Madigan vote.
- ;) - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:12 pm:
Once again…a couple calls from organized labor with one simple message: “if you’re not with us and the man who literally has saved us time and time again, we can’t promise you any support next time around, and we can’t guarantee you don’t have a challenger”…and their blood will run cold. All labor has to do is pick up the phone. Simply put.
- @misterjayem - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:14 pm:
“Buh… Buh… But THE UNIONS‼”
– MrJM
- NIU Grad - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:16 pm:
“But, man, the damage he would risk causing the state and his party to preserve his own political power would be catastrophic.”
The man was willing to end his daughter’s political career in order to stay in power. To what end? Who knows. I’m confident that he is willing to stretch this out and cause as much damage as possible.
- The Dogwalker - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:18 pm:
Mike Madigan better hope that negative stories about his relationship with other major corporations don’t appear.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:19 pm:
===All labor has to do is pick up the phone===
LOL
You don’t think calls have already been made? Also, what good are those threats if MJM is gone? There’s no incentive to flip.
- Trubisky’s clipboard - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:23 pm:
The man was willing to end his daughter’s political career in order to stay in power.
This says it all about the person Madigan is.
- Roman - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:23 pm:
Another sure sign that the end is near: Madigan loyalists floating their names as a possible successor — and at least one doing it very publicly. Doubtful they’d be doing that if any of them thought he had a better than 50-50 chance of surviving.
- Former Downstater - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:24 pm:
===Mike Madigan better hope that negative stories about his relationship with other major corporations don’t appear.===
Corporations, law firms, unions, trade associations. The list could be endless.
- Boone's is Back - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:26 pm:
The remap also hangs in the balance. This could be MJM’s biggest tool in a) making the argument that they need to keep him for that 2 year window and b) dangling it above the defectors if he can make his majority supplant them.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:28 pm:
=== This could be MJM’s biggest tool in a) making the argument that they need to keep him===
Meh. The governor has threatened to veto the usual MJM map. That dog won’t hunt with the defectors.
- Petey L. - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:28 pm:
On some beach in Florida, Rauner is taking a leisurely walk and chuckling.
- Pelonski - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:29 pm:
Madigan is pragmatic. He will do his best to stay in office, but once it becomes apparent that he is out, he will switch to negotiating the best deal he can get to move on. I don’t see him dragging his party down in a desperate attempt to stay in power.
- AlfondoGonz - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:30 pm:
The Speaker is nearly 80 years old. Just retire.
- 1st Ward - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:31 pm:
“the damage he would risk causing the state and his party to preserve his own political power would be catastrophic.”
He is 78. If he was in his 50’s or early 60’s I could see the twisted logic if the person thought they could weather the storm and hold onto power for 10+ years. ComEd aside does he have no interest in retiring? Nationally congress members are in their 90’s these days. So maybe not? Cornelius Cole was 102 when he died as US Senator. Is staying in power until 103 Madigan’s “end-game”?
- 1st Ward - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:34 pm:
“All labor has to do is pick up the phone”
Bob Reiter picked up the phone and publicly said we back Madigan.
- Give Us Barabbas - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:35 pm:
“You come at the king, you’d best not miss.” If they -all- come at the king though…
Earlier, Madigan might have been able to trade leadership of the party or the Speakership, give up one to retain the other. I think that time has passed now. He wields the money, but maybe not for long, and Pritzker has money, all he needs. I wouldn’t count on Labor to help Madigan: they are trying to figure out which Madigan replacement would be best for them, right now. Even if he beats the current rap and is never charged, he’s now too damaged. Entropy always wins in the end. The ship sails on. And now it is time to chart a new course, with a new captain. Make a plan for some continuity of leadership and make a graceful exit. Go fishing with Lou Lang or something.
- Kris Bryant on the South Side - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:38 pm:
This is as informed a take as it gets on the dynamic. Except, the 18 renegades don’t have the upper hand. We’ve been at this for almost a month. If members haven’t declared publicly what they’ll do, it ain’t happening before at least the first caucus vote. So you have maybe 40 MJM yeas, 18 Dem no’s, and the GOP. I don’t know who has the upper hand but it isn’t the guys with the fewest bodies in their camp.
- Fav Human - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:41 pm:
the damage he would risk causing the state and his party to preserve his own political power would be catastrophic.
I am rather certain he will try to wait them out.
They have no incentive to flip - what incentive does he have to go???
None at all, that I can see.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:45 pm:
This is a perfectly concise and simply explained post to where everything sits and will be sitting, and every pitfall and “whatabout” covered. Thanks Rich.
To the post,
With a strong caveat.. that nothing is ever-ever done until its done …
Math is going to be impossible for Madigan to find his 60. Let’s look at those “outs” that are only pesky as annoying and not pesky to facts;
* No Raunerite/GOPer is going to vote for MJM.
This speculative parlor game goes against the “fire Madigan” mantra decades old, and there’s no McAuliffe, Saviano, and definitely no pre-minority leader Jim Durkin out there willing to vote for MJM, and those folks were only committee chairs to an olive branch thinking, not to putting MJM over 60 to keep a gavel. So… no… and what, you gonna reward how many with the chairmanships? Move on, this ain’t happening.
* Flipping
Two key elements that are seemingly ignored; Madigan ain’t sitting at 55, heck, even 50 might be a stretch, so they’d need 10, double digits, to flip after publicly saying they are “red” on MJM. If you can’t name 2 off that list Rich has up, how ya gonna find 8+ more off that list? The numbers and the publicly stated position(s)… 10 flip back… just to be in a ball park of silly? Nope.
* Labor will save the day
Yeah, ’bout that… what’s the “or else”? Labor can’t decide the Raunerite/GOPers are an option. Sure, they can flip on the governor, or the statewides… but labor can, or wants to, take out Jesse White? What Rauerite nominee will be better than Pritzker with a new Speaker that may work out in the long run anyway? That’s the point of this exercise, labor may be all-in on MJM, but what is the old saying … no permanent enemies, only permanent interests? The mending of fences is the “after” for a new Speaker, like “Step 48″, this is still “Step 3″. The push for labor is powerful to the unity, but the flipping of those committed, with a limited leverage or fulcrum to “or else”… nope.
* Who will be Speaker?
(Sigh) While its true, there’s no frontrunning “other”, this is about the 60, not someone getting 60, and the agreement isn’t on having a “who”, its who they can agree they don’t want or doesn’t have 60. Getting bogged down on latter steps ignores the significance that there’s no done deal, and there doesn’t need to be, and let’s be more frank, as of this post, Madigan and Kifowit, they both lack 60. K? That’s not the question on the table.
* (Insert name) should get involved.
President Lightford might disagree. Let the 73 figure out the 60, without empowering the super-minority, but well after Madigan is no longer the option, the choice, the nominee… and this idea that “so and so” needs to do this or that isn’t going to help the 73, and what Speaker wants to be “the governor’s speaker” or “Jesse White’s choice”, let the 73 hash it out, as the governing and politics will heal by the caucus acting as a caucus of consensus.
So… so the 60 MJM has to stay.
Otherwise, the 72 (less MJM) need to publicly, and unequivocally decide that they will speak with ONE voice and end the parlor game with one letter… and let MJM figure out his exit strategy to the House.
The reason we are “here” is while 18 voices spoke, it will only be with one voice the 18 shout that will finally end the speculative.
- dotcom - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:48 pm:
Could someone explain to me why Madigan is so necessary to the remap? That point gets brought up repeatedly, but it is not as if he is solely capable of putting together a map that favors his party. There are plenty of smart people who could draw a map.
- JS Mill - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:48 pm:
=Rauner is taking a leisurely walk and chuckling.=
Who? Yeah, he isn’t getting the last laugh, he was trounced by MJM and Pritzker and in that order.
To me, what is noticeable is the dearth of people coming out and stating that they WILL vote for him. And maybe no one has asked anyone to do so, but support has been pretty lean which I see as an indication the end is nigh.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:52 pm:
===Rauner is===
…humilated, ran out of the state, over $100 million lighter, and his name is in ruins for what Bruce did to social serives and higher education… as Diana Rauner needed JB Pritzker, the Pritzker family and the Pritzker Trusts to save her own social service.
I mean… to say … by nearly every measure Illinois is worse off when Rauner became governor, and the biggest loss by a sitting “GOP” governor in 100 years… mighty expensive laugh, and not talking money either, lol
- Fox haven - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:53 pm:
“making the argument that they need to keep him for that 2 year window”
Any Dem willing to buy into that logic need only look at Betsy Dirksen Londrigan. She presumably had all the money she needed, but not enough to erase the taint of MJM. Any Dem that votes to keep him in office, might have union support, but they will be battling against the playbook used against Londrigan. And an actual vote for MJM, in 2020, will be more direct and devastating.
- SpiDem - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:53 pm:
@Kris Bryant — Once the opposition pushed Madigan decisively below 60 (the 18), there is simply no incentive for any other member opposed to Madigan remaining Speaker to show their cards. The 18 are doing the heavy lift, many more are keeping their heads down and waiting to see how things develop, and which eventual candidate looks like a winner.
- Jocko - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:54 pm:
I would love to see MJM step down, with Mitch McConnell close behind.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 1:57 pm:
===Betsy Dirksen Londrigan===
If ya need to point to a congressional race to make a statehouse point … (sigh)
in the end, the Raunerites picked up a “+1″ and lost a seat in Naperville …and still are a super-minority.
As stated well, very well actually, above… the 18 are doing the heavy lift, the need to worry about being that “60th” vote to save MJM isn’t in play for any of the 72 to worry about.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:07 pm:
===what incentive does he have to go?===
Ever notice how the US Attorney does something on important session days?
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:08 pm:
Bravo to MJM for stubbornly attempting to hold on to power. However, he represents a by-gone era. IL Dems must know they will be hard-pressed to capitalize on the equity diversity and inclusion movement with a 78-year-old white male under a cloud of corruption at the helm.
- Kane County Skeptic - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:15 pm:
- his name is in ruins-
Rauner is done with politics so he doesn’t care what Illinois voters think of him. Especially, Democrat voters. The Jim Edgar philosophy isn’t too popular with Republican primary voters in 2020. Neither is Pat Bradyism.
- Dotnonymous - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:16 pm:
Mike Madigan is to Illinois politics as Tyson v. Jones is to the sport of boxing.
Yo…TIME.
- Frumpy White Guy - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:16 pm:
Perhaps the No to Madigan State Representatives will offer the Unions support for Labors 2nd choice for Speaker.
- Petey L. - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:21 pm:
I think Rauner is feeling pretty good about himself right now. He was right about MJM. Do you think he would trade places with JB?
The state is a fiscal disaster and a COVID disaster.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:27 pm:
===The state is a fiscal disaster and a COVID disaster.===
…and yet he ran for re-election. Hmm.
===Democrat voters===
If you’re gonna mouth-breathe, wear a mask.
Rauner voted in the “Democrat” primary at least once, when living in Chicago. Keep up.
===The Jim Edgar philosophy isn’t too popular with Republican primary voters in 2020. Neither is Pat Bradyism.===
Oh yeah, the old, angry, white, rural, regional party that supported a defeated racist president should be proud to reject Jim Edgar, lol
- Stones - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:28 pm:
If I recall back in ‘75, it was Clyde Choate as the chief opposition to Bill Redmond.
- Rudy’s teeth - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:30 pm:
The Illinois Legislature is like a plate of spaghetti and the Carbonara sauce is Michael Madigan.
- nadia - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:38 pm:
In some unions, the rank and file are, to the say the least, restless about the Madigan/ComEd situation. Labor did their duty, gave public support for their choice. If MJM is out Labor will fall in line with whoever the new Speaker is. IMO, it would be unwise to strong arm the 18, it’s as simple as don’t burn that bridge or even try to light it on fire. Legislators tend to have long memories and one never knows when you will need 1 more vote on something important to your cause.
- Nick - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:43 pm:
The problem really is even if Madigan were to somehow survive, the damage he’d cause in doing so would be… immense. Not in the sense that some House Dems split or go independent, or vote for the Republican for speaker, don’t be ridiculous.
But a protracted battle which can only be won by making members who have publicly dropped him change their mind? During the middle of a pandemic/fiscal crisis? All to reelect the least popular Speaker in Illinois history? Who’s office is being swarmed by indictments like vultures?
That’s gonna cause some serious grudges and scars which will last a lifetime. Might as well drop the D from DPI after that.
- 14th ward - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:45 pm:
First of all pritzker wants him out, the unions don’t have an appetite to squabble with him. Out of the remaining 55, how many can say no to the gov.
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:52 pm:
The interesting question is once gone from power - how does MJM deploy the $17 plus million in his committee. That’s a whole lotta firepower
1. return funds to contributors in an amount not to exceed their contribution(s),
2. transfer funds to another political committee,
3. donate funds to a charitable organization of the committee’s choice.
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 2:57 pm:
This is a good lesson in real politic. Since someone already brought up labor as a stakeholder, I’ll pick on them.
Every option that anyone in the pro-Madigan camp has has some potential for significantly damaging their position. Labor can place pressure, but the reality is they risk damaging their relationship with that legislator, if they withhold support they risk having a legislator with worse positions on labor, and if they run their own labor backed candidates in the primary they’re not only expending resources they didn’t need to out of political spite, they’re setting up the potential for an embarrassment should their labor backed candidate fail.
Can labor do it with one seat? Sure. 18? That seems a bit more than they can chew.
I apologize for treating labor as a single entity for purposes of this example.
No prudent operator wants to burn the house down, and Madigan has finally stepped into it to the point where it is difficult to ignore the stench.
A stench so powerful it can cling to anyone else.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 3:10 pm:
===how does MJM deploy the $17 plus million in his committee===
You forgot one: 4) Legal fees.
- Ben Tre - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 3:16 pm:
So by “literally under siege” you mean “figuratively under siege.”
- Themis - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 3:18 pm:
This is a joke, right? Like the Pelosi drama that went nowhere? This is all prearranged so that the 18 listed above can get credit for “standing up to Madigan” but not holding my breath that the anything will change. That’s why they are making a big deal out of it now. Hoping people will be distracted by other things by the time the vote is taken in January.
- Annoin' - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 3:18 pm:
“And in that spirit, I’m not predicting Madigan’s definite political demise.”…Hinz would be proud.
Meanwhile the “force aside and pick someone later suggests” a light drizzle must be leakin’ into Capt. Fax noggin’ this afternoon.
- Medvale School for the Gifted - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 3:20 pm:
Remember this.
If Madigan is knocked off his perch, he has far less leverage to raise funds and fight the good fight against the feds.
When it comes down to it, it’s a question of whether Madigan has enough loyal members who wish to offer their full measure of gratitude.
- Powdered Whig - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 3:21 pm:
=== The interesting question is once gone from power - how does MJM deploy the $17 plus million in his committee. ===
My guess is that he will transfer the bulk of those funds to other political committees
- Santa - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 3:23 pm:
Madigan will not be Speaker but he will help make the next Speaker. It will not be one from the 18 renegades.
- 4 percent - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 3:26 pm:
Remember that MJM has placed a lot of friends/family on payrolls over the years, especially in Chicago. I’m not sure that some of those Chicago officials would back him up by threating to terminate jobs/contracts but its always been a pressure point.
- don the legend - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 4:03 pm:
==On some beach in Florida, Rauner is taking a leisurely walk and chuckling.==
Petey L, let me guess, you voted against the graduated income tax and you just love owning the libs?
- Curious - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 4:13 pm:
“but its always been a pressure point.”
Those pressure points are tougher to “communicate” if the other party is potentially wearing a wire.
- midway gardens - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 5:03 pm:
== My guess is that he will transfer the bulk of those funds to other political committees
Can’t the funds be used for legal defense?
- Soccermom - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 6:13 pm:
Why are we so sure that no GOP members will vote for Madigan? if they lose their favorite talking point, what do they have left?
- House of Lannister - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 6:43 pm:
I forgot that Lee Daniels crossed party lines in 1975 to put Bill Redmond over the top:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_A._Redmond
- Bobio - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 7:12 pm:
He has a lot of people to protect and won’t give in till he can pick or at least stomach his successor.
- Huh? - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 8:19 pm:
If Madigan loses the speakership, he will be the power behind the throne. He may not have the position, but he will have the power.
- Gary Hart - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 8:46 pm:
The interesting thing about the 18 public no’s is the different caucuses they represent. You have the liberals like Guzzardi and Gershowitz and the conservatives like Carroll and Yingling. It seems while the band doesn’t have a leader, it has many different personalities.
- Latina - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 9:06 pm:
Caterpillar ???
- Fivegreenleaves - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 9:21 pm:
As a southern Illinois Democrat, I’d love to see Michael Madigan retire. If I ran for state office, all the GOP would have to do is plaster my picture next to Madigan’s, call me his candidate, and I’d lose for sure. There are no southern Illinois Democrats in the General Assembly. He’s been great for the party over the years, but he’s had his time. His cling to power is now hurting the party.
- Flexible One - Monday, Nov 30, 20 @ 9:40 pm:
Remember this man has patience.
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Dec 1, 20 @ 1:56 am:
—Once again…a couple calls from organized labor with one simple message:
Nope. It doesn’t matter if Madigan is gone and he doesn’t have the votes.
I’ve always been skeptical, but very hopeful of the efforts to oust him, but he doesn’t have 60 votes. And this time is different in that there are independent members who just won’t vote for him and will wait out a vote where he may get a majority in caucus. He needs 60 on the floor and he doesn’t have them anymore.
He could have retired and let Lisa ascend, but he couldn’t let go.
I haven’t let myself believe it until now, but he’s done. And good riddance.