Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Mixed February results: Illinois unemployment increases, but tax revenues also up
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Mixed February results: Illinois unemployment increases, but tax revenues also up

Monday, Mar 1, 2021

* Press release

The February University of Illinois Flash Index rose to 96.6 from its 96.3 level in January. Last year’s February 2020 reading of 105.7 was the last reading above the 100-dividing line that indicates growth before the COVID-19 crisis caused the index to plummet to 92.8.

“Although the Flash Index does not predict the future, most signs suggest that both Illinois and the nation are on the verge of a strong economic expansion,” said University of Illinois economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly index for the University of Illinois System’s Institute of Government and Public Affairs (IGPA). “The shutdowns and the threat of the virus suppressed demand. The return to near-normal anticipated in the next few months with the availability of various vaccines and the likelihood of additional federal stimulus spending are expected to unleash some of that pent-up demand.”

Like last month, the indicators for Illinois were mixed, with unemployment increasing while tax revenues remained strong. All three components of the index (corporate, individual income and sales tax receipts) exceeded the levels of the same month in 2020 after adjusting for inflation even though last year’s numbers were not impacted by the health emergency.

The Flash Index is normally a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through February 28, 2021. Ad hoc adjustments have been made to deal with the timing of the tax receipts resulting from state and Federal changes in payment dates beginning in March.

* Graph

- Posted by Rich Miller        

12 Comments
  1. - Chicagonk - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 11:23 am:

    Models that continue to use unemployment data based on number of filings should be thrown out until the fraud issues are solved. Ohio released a report that 25% of claims in the state are found fraudulent. Colorado had a 63% spike in early January driven by fraud.


  2. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 11:50 am:

    Remember that Illinois Democrats promised raises to the minimum wage in the midst of a devastating pandemic that pummeled small business would not affect employment negatively.

    The minimum wage was raised to $9.25 in January 2020, , $10 on July 1 and now $11 on January 1st and we wonder why our unemployment numbers are so bad.


  3. - Nick - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 1:11 pm:

    Linking this to the minimum wage is hilarious


  4. - FranklinCounty - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 1:33 pm:

    ==Linking this to the minimum wage is hilarious==

    Think of it this way, your employer gives you a 12 month temporary pay cut. You’re ticked off but you think you can make it with careful budgeting. A few months in, your cable company, water company, electric company, etc. all conspire to raise your rates 33% because they think you are “too rich” and “need to do your fair share”. What do you think is going to happen to your *personal* economic growth?

    How is the State of Illinois any different?


  5. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 1:36 pm:

    === all conspire to===

    The smoke is billowing under your dorm room door. Use a towel, and get your popcorn out of the microwave.

    “… all conspire to…”

    For the love of Pete, lol


  6. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 1:51 pm:

    Let the hilarity ensue from the Congressional Budget Office no less:

    In an average week in 2025, the year when the minimum wage would reach $15 per hour, 17 million workers whose wages would otherwise be below $15 per hour would be directly affected, and many of the 10 million workers whose wages would otherwise be slightly above that wage rate would also be affected. At that time, the effects on workers and their families would include the following:

    Employment would be reduced by 1.4 million workers, or 0.9 percent, according to CBO’s average estimate.

    https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/56975-Minimum-Wage.pdf


  7. - Commisar Gritty - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 2:35 pm:

    Rich,

    Any chance you can get gov or IDES to comment on what the current wait time for a call back is? Seems like it has exceeded a month for the past 3-4 weeks.

    Asking for a every district office staffer friend.


  8. - Demoralized - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 4:01 pm:

    ==Linking this to the minimum wage is hilarious==

    This. He’s apparently been living under a rock for the past year. Because COVID certainly couldn’t have had an impact, right?


  9. - Demoralized - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 4:02 pm:

    Commisar Gritty:

    I got a call back in about 5 days when I had a fraud claim.


  10. - Nick - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 4:02 pm:

    It actually *is* hilarious because we have more than enough evidence now that the link between minimum wage increases and unemployment appears to be, at best… spurious? At least until a point. Studies, real world evidence, there just isn’t huge evidence for job losses. And the CBO report cited uses an *incredibly* ungenerous elasticity that even minimum wage opponents don’t agree with, and even that still shows it naturally being a net benefit (one doubts most of the jobs lost would be in states like Illinois).

    But more to the point, do you know who just raised their minimum wage to $11 on the same day that Illinois raised ours to $11? Arkansas. You know who is doing fine? Arkansas.


  11. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 7:06 pm:

    Covid hit all states but employment is recovering nicely all across America. Illinois remains an outlier.

    When will Democrats actually address economic growth and job creation?


  12. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Mar 1, 21 @ 11:29 pm:

    Illinois ranks 41st in unemployment.

    We are at 7.6%

    Iowa is 3.1%
    Wisconsin is 5.5%
    Indiana is 4.3%
    Missouri is 5.8%
    Minnesota is 4.4%
    Michigan is 7.5%

    https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

    Yet our Governor’s solution seems to be raise taxes and increase regulations on businesses large and small and hope they want to expand here and hire more workers.

    That is the joke and it’s not the least bit funny


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Governor's office staff member tested positive, had no close contact with Pritzker
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Republicans want to hear Pritzker's remap thoughts while Democrats push back against GOP plans
* An unintended, but likely forseeable consequence of over-cautious policies
* COVID-19 roundup: Lawsuit filed over LaSalle Veterans’ Home death; IDOC resuming in-person visitation; Hotel revenues plunged 80 percent
* Question of the day
* Legislator pay ruling should not be a surprise
* *** UPDATED x1 *** 2,433 new confirmed and probable cases; 18 additional deaths; 1,998 hospitalized; 418 in the ICU; 4.4 percent average case positivity rate; 4.9 percent average test positivity rate; 132,188 average daily doses
* More like this, please
* *** UPDATED x1 *** State Board of Elections calls special meeting to discuss Sandvoss situation
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraising event list
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Big teachers union wins prompt grumbling
* Center Square network gets grant to offer "an alternate perspective to legacy media’s unfair coverage of individuals who disagree with state shutdowns"
* Moody's: New Chicago firefighter pension law is "credit negative"
* Open thread
* *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today's edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller