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*** UPDATED x2 *** Key remap Dem says no guarantee US Census data will be accurate

Monday, Apr 19, 2021

* The Illinois Constitution requires that new legislative maps be enacted by June 30th, but the census data won’t be available until September or so. The National Conference of State Legislatures has suggested using the population estimates from the US Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey and Illinois Democrats have come up with a bit of spin to cast aspersions on the official numbers

Democrats have said they intend to finish the legislative mapmaking process by June 30, ensuring they will be relying on alternative data to the actual federal 2020 census.

“That’s our constitutional responsibility and that’s our goal to be done by June 30,” said state Sen. Elgie Sims, the Chicago Democrat who is vice chair of the senate redistricting committee. […]

Illinois’ Constitution does not require the use of federal census data for legislative redistricting, and some leading Democrats question the accuracy of the final census data by pointing to efforts by former President Donald Trump’s administration to block the counting of undocumented immigrants.

“There’s nothing that says that this (census) data is going to be accurate anyway because there were significant steps made to impact and influence some of that data,” Sims said. […]

Kathay Feng, the national redistricting director for Common Cause, said to rely on survey data to draw maps “is a guaranteed malapportionment lawsuit.”

Every redistricting cycle involves lawsuits. You can bet your house there will be filings on this topic.

*** UPDATE 1 *** Speaking of redistricting and possibly getting dragged into lawsuits, here’s Lynn Sweet

Rep. Adam Kinzinger, the most prominent Republican in Illinois, said if Democrats carve up his congressional district in the pending remap, he would consider a statewide run for senator or governor in 2022.

Kinzinger made the comment Thursday on the Chicago Sun-Times political show “At the Virtual Table. On the show another guest, new Democratic Party of Illinois chairwoman Rep. Robin Kelly, D-Ill., said freshman Rep. Mary Miller, R-Ill. — not Kinzinger — should be the Democratic target if a district needs to be eliminated.

With Democrats having the upper hand in a remap and Illinois likely to lose at least one seat because of population declines, Kelly said, “If we have something to say about it, I don’t think that it’ll be Adam’s seat.” […]

It is “fine with me” if “her seat is no longer there,” [Kelly said about Miller].

*** UPDATE 2 *** Meanwhile…

Dear Governor Pritzker:

On Monday, April 12, 2021 we requested from the Chairs of the House and Senate redistricting committees that yourself or a high-level member of your office testify at the only scheduled joint House-Senate redistricting hearing. The hearing is scheduled for this next Monday, April 19, 5:00 p.m. in East St. Louis.

At a House Redistricting Committee the evening of Friday, April 16, 2021, the Chair of the Committee that evening stated House Democrats had yet to receive a response to our request.
As the Spokesmen on the respective Senate and House redistricting committees, we ask for your attendance at this hearing.

Comments from Members of the Democratic party during hearings on the 2021 redistricting process lead us to believe that the majority fully plans to enact new maps, without using decennial census data, for both the Legislature and U.S. House of Representatives through a process that includes your approval of new maps by June 30, 2021.

To date, with over 30 hearings being conducted, not a single House or Senate hearing has included testimony from your office.

Given your numerous stated positions in favor of fair mapping, as well as a commission process for redistricting, it is vital that both the people of Illinois and our Committees hear directly from your office in a public hearing as to your views and plans for redistricting.

Sincerely,
Senator Jason Barickman
Representative Tim Butler

The full interview is here.

* Related…

* A guide to political redistricting in Illinois

* How you can share your thoughts with lawmakers on Illinois’ new congressional districts

* Hearing in East St. Louis today ahead of state’s redistricting process

* U of I hosts redistricting talk Tuesday

* Maine redistricting thrown into confusion by census delay, constitutional Catch-22

- Posted by Rich Miller        

37 Comments
  1. - Anyone Remember - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 10:22 am:

    During George W. Bush’s tenure, didn’t the Texicans reapportion twice? Can’t Illinois use survey data for the 2022 elections and actual census data for 2024 (and beyone) elections?


  2. - Anyone Remember - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 10:23 am:

    *beyond


  3. - anon2 - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 10:24 am:

    I hope the state Supreme Court districts are finally reapportioned after several decades.


  4. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 10:26 am:

    Any chance Bost’s district is changed/absorbed by another?


  5. - Socially DIstant Watcher - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 10:28 am:

    How is it guaranteed? Districts have to substantially equal. Illinois maps have been precisely equal, based on census data, but case law says variations are allowed. Any lawsuit based on differences between the community survey and the decennial census will have to show not only that there are differences but that the differences are so large that the districts are not substantially equal. It’s not a slam dunk.


  6. - Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 10:31 am:

    ===How is it guaranteed?===

    Anyone can sue anyone for anything.


  7. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 10:45 am:

    Kinzinger, please run for gov.

    Watching Bailey berate you as a RINO at every public appearance/interview will be fun.


  8. - Norseman - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 10:53 am:

    Rich is right. “Anyone can sue anyone for anything.”

    I would add that based on history a lawsuit was foreordained regardless of the latest census issue.

    The Census delay creates an irrational conundrum given the IL Constitution redistricting deadlines. The Dems are using a reasonable approach to address that problem. Nothing is stopping the ILGA from amending the new maps, once the data is finally received.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 11:03 am:

    It’s likely going to a courthouse.

    Who knows, all sides might sue, that would be one interesting time.

    I’m waiting on Kinzinger. I am.

    He’s held my curiosity, I’d like to see if he can grab my attention.

    That’s my wait on this.


  10. - uialum - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 11:19 am:

    Interesting that Kinzinger also mentioned a Senate campaign as an option when Davis/Lahood have been talked about for Governor. I know I’d rather run against a first term Senator who a lot of people don’t know than a first term Governor with unlimited funding and near universal name ID.


  11. - tdavs1 - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 11:35 am:

    =Any chance Bost’s district is changed/absorbed by another?=

    I could see Bost losing East St. Louis and Belleville and taking the southern portions of Mary Miller’s district (Harrisburg, Metropolis, Carmi). Dem parts of St. Clair and Madison could go into the 13th.


  12. - tdavs1 - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 11:38 am:

    I also wanted to ask if Dems can still get rid of Davis by putting Christian County into Mary Miller’s district and adding St. Clair county into the 13th.

    Also, would it be possible to still shore up Bustos or Underwood? I know Illinois gerrymanders have been incumbent protection maps than partisan ones.


  13. - 13th - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 11:42 am:

    Are they still going to try to go after Davis?


  14. - 13th - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 11:43 am:

    I also wanted to add that couldn’t the Dems try to draw a more Dem friendly southern-central IL district. Shore up Bustos with more suburban areas?


  15. - Downstate - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 11:50 am:

    “couldn’t the Dems try to draw a more Dem friendly southern-central IL district”

    The numbers are not trending their way. The judicial (Supreme, Appellate and Circuit Court) races are testament to this shift.


  16. - Blue Dog - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 11:53 am:

    I would expedite the use of the census estimate. When the real numbers come out it may have a Illinois losing two house seats.


  17. - Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:00 pm:

    ===When the real numbers come out it may have a Illinois losing two house seats. ===

    Two different things. We’ll get reapportionment numbers fairly soon.


  18. - 13th - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:00 pm:

    By a dem leaning downstate district, I mean a district that includes urban areas of Southern-Central Illinois. I could see Belleville, East St Louis, Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Bloomington, and Decatur. I know Southern and most of Central Illinois is a lost cause for Dems. Urban areas like those tend to vote Dem and you could draw a safe Clinton-Biden district while combining those areas together. Personally, I feel those areas have a lot more in common than we do with towns like Shelbyville or Carmi.


  19. - IL13thResident - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:03 pm:

    A lot of urban areas in Central Illinois still vote Democratic. I was wondering if we could combine those urban areas and fork a district. I can see C-U, Springfield, Bloomington-Normal, and E St. Louis being combined to form a district.


  20. - IL13thResident - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:06 pm:

    I also wanted to add that I am not trying to go after my representative. I just wanted to comment on how it’s possible to form a Dem leaning district downstate. I do want a more urban district down state as those areas tend to have been split up into more rural areas.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:09 pm:

    === To date, with over 30 hearings being conducted, not a single House or Senate hearing has included testimony from your office.===

    Meh.

    He’s got the veto, he’s got the pen.

    Why own whatever is ginned up before it arrives on his desk.

    Once again, “Remedial Barickman” looks like the one who thinks he’s so smart to “cornering” but Barickman’s remedial view has no political acumen to back anyone… anywhere.

    To the redistricting of congressional seats…

    The goal of the exercise is Dems keeping 13 seats.

    The rest is gravy.

    But, the 13 Dem seats must not be in danger of being 12 or less.


  22. - IL13THRESIDENT - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:18 pm:

    13 Dem seats is the key number for sure. I was wondering if the goal is to protect Bustos’ seat and not create a new seat downstate. In 2010, Dems kept the 12th for Costello and created the 13th as a swing seat. Both seats are now R seats. Bustos now has a R leaning seat now. Even if Dems shore her up it could might as well still be R by the end of the decade. Whereas a seat downstate with C-U, Blo-No, Springfield, and St Clair could be a much safer Dem leaning seat.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:23 pm:

    === Bustos now has a R leaning seat now. Even if Dems shore her up it could might as well still be R by the end of the decade.===

    You draw seats for trends, not snapshots.

    That’s how you create safe seats.

    It’s about protecting 13 Dem seats. The rest is a parlor game between Miller, LaHood, Davis, Bost and Kinzinger… and four of them would be wise to be safe without having a “Hail Mary” play for certain member of the caucus.


  24. - IL13THRESIDENT - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:30 pm:

    Just wondering if he could they make it safer for Bustos or Underwood. I know that Underwood’s has been trending D. Wouldn’t Bustos’ seat be a challenge?


  25. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:33 pm:

    === Just wondering if…===

    The goal of the exercise is 13 safe incumbent seats.

    That’s it.

    The rest is gravy, like the entire delegation deciding drawing out Miller is the best play for all.

    “That’s it.”


  26. - IL13THRESIDENT - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:37 pm:

    Makes sense given that IL maps have been more or less incumbent protection plans. In GOP controlled states, their goal has been to maximize their R seats. Given that this is gonna happen, why don’t IL Dems try to punch out another D seat in IL?


  27. - Unconventionalwisdom= - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:40 pm:

    =they will be relying on alternative data to the actual federal 2020 census.=

    What are those ‘alternative data sources” ?

    Ummmm.


  28. - Unconventionalwisdom - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:42 pm:

    As to Kinzinger he might very well consider a run for the Senate or Governor. If he runs for Congress he may very well be defeated in his primary


  29. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:43 pm:

    === If he runs for Congress he may very well be defeated in his primary===

    Can’t beat someone with no one.

    No one of any consequence is running at the moment.


  30. - Unconventionalwisdom - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 12:56 pm:

    ==== If he runs for Congress he may very well be defeated in his primary===

    Can’t beat someone with no one.

    No one of any consequence is running at the moment.

    We will see! But make no mistake he is worried.


  31. - Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 1:02 pm:

    ===What are those ‘alternative data sources” ?===

    It’s in the post. Right at the top.


  32. - Unconventional wisdom - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 1:05 pm:

    Thanks. For some reason it was not clear to me that was the specific source for data they were going to use.


  33. - EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 1:13 pm:

    Any chance either the northern or southern halves of current IL-4 are spun off, then adding additional strongly Hispanic areas, to create two Hispanic seats? Even if it might mean primary challenges to the likes of Newman, or Quigley.


  34. - Nick - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 2:04 pm:

    Kinzinger would be a very strong candidate for either Governor or Senate.

    If he could win a primary.


  35. - IL13THRESIDENT - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 2:35 pm:

    Yes, he has a moderate image, but his voting record says otherwise. The Republicans that have won in IL have almost always been pro choice, pro gay rights, and liberal on almost every social issue. Dems can easily paint Kinzinger as Trump’s silent foot soldier. Duckworth hasn’t done anything controversial or illegal. Pritzker has been meh, but by IL standards he’s a saint.


  36. - Urbana Cowboy - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 3:18 pm:

    ===Can’t beat someone with no one.===

    Mary Miller could beat Kinzinger if those two are thrown into the same district.


  37. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 19, 21 @ 3:28 pm:

    === Mary Miller could beat Kinzinger… ===

    (Sigh)

    The goal is to compact Bost, Davis, and Miller in two districts to help the 13 Dem incumbents.

    Putting Kinzinger and Miller in a district might hurt that goal


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