A possible primary path for Rodney Davis
Friday, May 21, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Republican gubernatorial candidate state Sen. Darren Bailey…
We’ve recently seen now Rodney Davis seems to have joined Adam Kinzinger in some of his antics on going back to January 6 for whatever that’s all about. As bad as everything is in this country we seem to, we can’t get over things and we can’t move on. We’ve got a lot of things to deal with and it’s time to get rid of, put some of this nonsense behind us and let the law take care of that and let our elected officials move on.
* Republican gubernatorial candidate Gary Rabine…
Guess what? People that have had this vaccine aren’t guaranteed they’re not gonna get Covid. Actually there’s good odds that they’ll get it again. So this is craziness. The FDA has not even approved this vaccine, ok, over 4,000 people have died and normally if it’s FDA approved if 5 people die a black label goes on this. I just learned this recently, black label about death goes on this, right. If 50 people die they stop it. Ok, 4,000 people, over 4,000 people so far have been reported to die from this.
Man, that’s just nuts.
* Excerpt from Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul Schimpf’s press release…
Members of Schimpf’s Law Enforcement Advisory Council include:
Jefferson County Sheriff Jeff Bullard
Monroe County Sheriff Neal Rohlfing
Randolph County Sheriff Shannon Wolff
Retired Illinois State Trooper Jay Wittenborn
Illinois Fraternal Order of Police Correction Lodge 263 President Scott Ward
Grundy County States Attorney Jason Helland
Correctional Case Work Supervisor Richard Graves
That’s quite a lineup.
* Jefferson County Sheriff Jeff Bullard…
Sheriff Bullard: Governor’s new rules eliminate due process and he will not enforce
* Monroe County Sheriff Neal Rohlfing…
It has been very frustrating to watch this public health issue cause the many problems that we face today. I know many of our residents are struggling with the restrictions we are facing from the state. I will always side with our residents Constitutional Rights regardless to what consequences I may have.
* Randolph County Sheriff Shannon Wolff…
About 40% of the inmates in the Randolph County jail in southern Illinois have tested positive for the coronavirus, the sheriff said Monday.
* Grundy County States Attorney Jason Helland…
‘Million Unmasked March’ protest scheduled at Illinois capitol […]
Organizers say they will have several guest speakers including Grundy County States Attorney Jason Helland, Illinois State Representative and State Senate candidate Darren Bailey, Constitutional Lawyer Thomas Devore
Also…
Million Unmasked March comes up about 999,850 marchers short
* Illinois Fraternal Order of Police Correction Lodge 263 President Scott Ward…
These folks could wind up splitting the Covid-denier/anti-mask/anti-vax vote and let Rodney Davis walk in.
- Osborne Smith III - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:16 pm:
Is Rabine able to show his work for his claim of 4,000 deaths attributable to the COVID-19 vaccines? Or, is that just another far right talking conspiracy talking point?
- 13thVoter - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:16 pm:
If Davis does win primary, is there any chance of a conservative protest vote or blank ballot?
- 47th Ward - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:21 pm:
===”…some of his antics on going back to January 6 for whatever that’s all about. As bad as everything is in this country we seem to, we can’t get over things and we can’t move on.”===
Trump supporters with assistance from some elected officials perpetrated an insurrection against the government of the United States. Sorry Senator, I’m not ready to move on until they’re all exposed, charged and held accountable for their actions.
- Sir Reel - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:21 pm:
These guys are impressive. Articulate, knowledgeable, with real solutions to real problems.
Oh wait, I’m thinking of someone else.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:22 pm:
The bigger the field, the better for Davis.
It gets to 5, 6… that’d be ideal.
The thing here is… 100%… this all helps Davis… Davis needs Schimpf and Rabine to be more “well known” in the Trumpkin circles and with those who deny Covid and believe in conspiracies.
The field set at these 4… it’s not out of the question for Davis to get 38% and win, but that means Rabine, Bailey, and Schimpf doing their part and splitting that 62% with none of them hitting 38%.
Add two more Trumpkins, Davis would be breathing easier still.
- Arsenal - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:23 pm:
Not only could they split that vote, but I’m not entirely convinced those views represent a durable majority of the Illinois Republican vote.
==If Davis does win primary, is there any chance of a conservative protest vote or blank ballot? ==
Davis is pro-life. He was a Trump campaign co-chair. He just thinks we ought to investigate a riot at the Capitol that killed a police officer. If they need a conservative alternative to that, hoo boy.
- DuPage Dem - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:25 pm:
Path might be there in the primary. But Rodney will feel a lot of pressure to perform for these factions when he is campaigning and appearing at candidate forums. Lump the video of those performances with past votes and statements and he will walk into a general with a hell of an oppo book. The bigger and louder the primary circus is - the worst the general looks for the GOP.
- Red Ranger - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:27 pm:
Just when you thought Sen Bailey owned the craziest GOP Gov candidate lane, ladies and gentlemen, Gary Rabine.
- Gohawks123 - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:31 pm:
Rodney Davis making a run for governor… I think I’m going to be sick
- Grandson of Man - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:34 pm:
“People that have had this vaccine aren’t guaranteed they’re not gonna get Covid”
And people who take every general precaution are not guaranteed one more day of life. COVID vaccines are repeatedly shown to help the vast majority of the vaccinated.
What a dumb and dangerous way to live, letting a tiny exception of breakthrough infections be the rule in a deadly pandemic.
- rodsdave - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:34 pm:
What are his chances of winning the general? What percentage of the vote can he get?
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:35 pm:
83.4% is the percentage of the U.S. House GOP caucus that says Davis is wrong to support a bipartisan Jan. 6 commission
41% is the percentage of Republicans nationally who recently told a PBS poll they do not plan to get a COVID vaccine, even as Rodney Davis promotes them
Maybe the anti-Davis vote splits and Trump stays out or is unsuccessful blocking the “wayward” Davis from the nomination.
But this far out I could just as easily see some not-Davis rising to the top of the anti-vaxx/anti-mask heap and winning the right to lose to JB instead.
- Homebody - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:35 pm:
== Is Rabine able to show his work for his claim of 4,000 deaths attributable to the COVID-19 vaccines? Or, is that just another far right talking conspiracy talking point? ==
I am at the point where every right wing talking point I hear I just assume is completely fabricated or wildly out of context / missing key information. This assumption has served me well for a number of years.
- KOL - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:37 pm:
The lane is there for the taking, but are there any voters there? Times have changed.
- Cubs in '16 - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:39 pm:
===I’m not entirely convinced those views represent a durable majority of the Illinois Republican vote.===
Agreed. I think the number of far right voters are overestimated because they tend to be the most vocal. Davis represents a nice alternative for the moderates.
- 13thVoter - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:44 pm:
Davis is a moderate today. 20 years ago, he’d be a conservative darling. Times and politics have sure changed. Edgar and Big Jim would be considered moderate or conservative Democrats now.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:47 pm:
===20 years ago, he’d be a conservative darling===
20 years ago, he was a moderate Republican.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:47 pm:
Davis can “likely” get 34-38%
Davis needs to keep Bailey, Rabine, AND Schimpf all under that number.
Davis needs and requires either a large field, or merely these 3 but put these three in a place under 34-38% individually.
Rodney winning one in one in a primary in this climate… low probability of winning.
- Yiddishcowboy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:48 pm:
Schimpf’s advisory council should be called: Law (Lack of) Enforcement (if One Doesn’t Like the Law) Advisory Council
- 13thVoter - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:48 pm:
Davis? How was he a moderate Republican back then? I knew he ran against Gary Hannig in 1996. What were his positions?
- Don't Bloc Me In - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:49 pm:
I don’t believe Jefferson County Sheriff Jeff Bullard understands what “due process” means.
- Manchester - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:52 pm:
My God, what a roster of misfits. This is what passes for the GOP today?
- 13thVoter - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:53 pm:
Davis’ justification for voting for Jan 6 commission.
https://twitter.com/971FMTalk/status/1395813399636893698
- NIU Grad - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:53 pm:
I honestly think this is his to lose, if the right money and team lines up behind him. Two other thoughts:
-I find it hilarious that Bailey can spend 14 minutes on just a FB live rant session, without any questions or anything.
-This was the first time I’ve heard Rabine’s name pronounced. It’s ray-bai-n?
- Grandson of Man - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:56 pm:
“He’s a strong republican who does the moderate talk”
Davis is a type of shape shifting, “thread the needle” politician who drove many to vote for Trump in the first place: voted to not impeach twice, somehow missed the Cheney vote, says he supports her but won’t say how he would have voted.
- Pundent - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 1:58 pm:
A field of nutso opponents certainly helps Davis. But the problem is that inevitably he has to appeal to the same audience they’re courting. I don’t give any of them much of a chance but expect it will be an interesting circus.
- Cheryl44 - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:04 pm:
No vaccine is 100% effective. Oh I know, science. It doesn’t really mean anyone to these people.
- Union County Shoeless - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:06 pm:
Schimpf isn’t running for Governor anyway. He has perfected the dead end campaign as a spring board to other posts. He did it with the A.G. race, which got him to the State Senate. He’s running for Governor so he can run for Bost’s seat in Congress.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:08 pm:
=== Schimpf isn’t running for Governor anyway.===
(Sigh)
If he gets in the ballot, that’s running.
Even if he gets 7-10%, that’s great for Rodney
- JS Mill - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:16 pm:
=We’ve recently seen now Rodney Davis seems to have joined Adam Kinzinger in some of his antics on going back to January 6 for whatever that’s all about.=
Can someone who speaks easternblockease or southernillinoisan translate that for me?
I echo the thoughts expressed by @GOM.
Additionally, I am ready for southern Illinois to join greater Kentucky or even Idaho.
- SpiDem - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:24 pm:
If Trump endorses someone, and he probably will if Rodney Davis runs (since Davis supported the 1/6 commission), there will not be a meaningful split in the “anti-vax” vote
- Steve Rogers - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:30 pm:
=As bad as everything is in this country we seem to, we can’t get over things and we can’t move on.=
Why can’t they say that about November 3?
To the post, as a Dem. and on the positive side, whoever wins the primary, the Republicans will be giving Pritzker some pretty good oppo research and ads.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:34 pm:
===As bad as everything is in this country we seem to, we can’t get over things and we can’t move on.===
Supporters of failed insurrections like when things move on. They don’t want folks to realize that t-shirts, sweatshirts, hats… the date was to overthrow a fair and free election…
“But let’s move on”
- Al - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:41 pm:
Be nice; it could Be Governor Davis January 2023.
- ILRes - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 2:48 pm:
@AI What would it take to have Governor Rodney Davis on Jan 2023?
- don the legend - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 3:02 pm:
Per NBC news website Trump got 2,446,891 votes in 2020 in Illinois.
So maybe Rabine or Bailey figure they start with that many votes.
- Anyone Remember - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 3:08 pm:
Davis is my congressman. The way he avoids questions (he never did answer direct question(s) from Jim Leach of WMAY about repealing the Individual Mandate) … can’t wait to see him “answer” questions from Personal PAC’s Terry Cosgrove … from suburban former moderate GOP women asking insurance coverage conditions.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 3:09 pm:
===Yet===
There is no “Yet”
I get it, you supported the insurrection and overthrow a fair and free election.
In 2017, no Capitol police died, no tear gas, no stopping the electoral college count by violence, no president inciting an insurrection either.
Keep up
- Give Us Barabbas - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 3:16 pm:
They are the “big tent” party… But get behind the flap, no tigers, no high flyers…it’s all just the clown show.
- Jibba - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 3:35 pm:
You want an Eastern bloc translation? Our insurrection failed, so we should block all investigations so the FBI can’t find out what we did.
Know what? If I did what they did, I’d want everyone to move on too.
- Disappointed Female Suburban - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 3:44 pm:
He will be a formidable candidate. JB is tainted on a lot of fronts, the biggest being the Pritzker “Fair Tax” that was going to bring financial stability by taking more money from taxpayers, and opening up the ability of the Legislature to move the rates by simple majority going forward.
The voters sent a loud message, we want alternatives/solutions beyond tax and spend.
- Ducky LaMoore - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 3:45 pm:
“People that have had this vaccine aren’t guaranteed they’re not gonna get Covid.”
True. That whole % of efficacy has been talked about non-stop. But at least you are guaranteed not to die from Covid. But I doubt Mr Rabine understands that.
- TheInvisibleMan - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 4:01 pm:
Bailey says;
– we can’t get over things and we can’t move on. –
Remind me again what his policy positions are. I don’t recall many of them being moving on from anything, but instead a general desire to return all aspects of life to how things once were.
Did Bailey suddenly become a progressive, or does he not understand what the word conservative means.
- Candy Dogood - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 4:03 pm:
===splitting the Covid-denier/anti-mask/anti-vax===
I agree with OW that he’d have better odds with more candidates. The doubts I have is that a meaningful portion of the GOP primary participants would be willing to support a candidate who will be painted as anti-Trump by all of his opponents and take the wrong position on both the big lie and the idea of accountability especially if the campaign is taking place during a congressional commission and the GOP is actively trying to derail everything meaningful about that as subpoenas are issued and participants start getting convicted.
- Dysfunction Junction - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 4:05 pm:
“People that have had this vaccine aren’t guaranteed they’re not gonna get Covid.”
Wow. Best rationale I’ve heard from a candidate for re-instituting mask mandates. Thanks, Gary!
- Lil Dirty Bird - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 4:10 pm:
I heard Rodney has hired John Schweppe to work the northwest part of Illinois for his Gov bid.
- Chicago Blue - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 4:50 pm:
@Disappoijnted Female Suburban Pritzker has some negatives and by no means is he a shoo-in, but this is still a blue state, he’s magnitudes richer than any opponent (short of Griffin jumping in) and willing to self-fund, and Rodney Davis voted with Trump 88.8% of the time. 88.8% of the time. That alone is an anchor that will drag him to a loss no matter how much the media tries to create a horse race out of it.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 4:57 pm:
===this is still a blue state===
Illinois is NOT a blue state, the Raunerites imploded options to give voters to vote Republican, the Trump party aspect makes it impossible to look at a statewide victory without significant moderation.
This blue state thinking is a fallacy.
Davis, as you point out, will have significant and real Trump problems. It’ll be interesting to see how that works… if he jumps in.
- Candy Dogood - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 4:58 pm:
I listened to Rabine’s full interview. He strikes me as someone who has done nothing to prepare for this campaign who has convinced me when he say’s he’s not smart enough to know something we should just believe him and do him a big favor while helping ourselves by not electing him.
- Candy Dogood - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 5:05 pm:
=== but this is still a blue state===
This kind of thinking is how Pat Quinn lost in 2014 and how Mark Kirk won in 2010.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 5:07 pm:
=== This kind of thinking is how Pat Quinn lost in 2014 and how Mark Kirk won in 2010.===
This is the correct answer
- Anyone Remember - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 5:12 pm:
=== … how Pat Quinn lost in 2014 … .===
Pat Quinn didn’t “lose” in 2014 so much as he was overwhelmed by being the same party as the President in a 6th year election. It must be noted the 2 statewide elections Quinn lost were in 2014 and 1994 (Newt-wave).
- Oswego Willy - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 5:14 pm:
=== Pat Quinn didn’t “lose” in 2014===
He lost.
“Pat Quinn failed”… 2 in 5 union households voted Rauner
- Anyone Remember - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 5:30 pm:
“Pat Quinn failed”
While this is a state political blog, state politics are influenced by national political headwinds. The 6th year of a presidency also explains, in part, why Blagojevich did so well in 2006 while being incredibly unpopular. It also explains the last time Sangamon County elected a Democratic Sheriff (1974). That said, it isn’t automatic.
- Pundent - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 5:31 pm:
The electorate was anti-Quinn in 2014 just as it is anti-red right now. But that has more to do with the candidates than anything. As Rauner and Kirk recently showed us we’re anything but a blue state.
- Decaturland - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 6:39 pm:
Yes Republicans have their share of crazies; but so do the Democrats. Imagine the mayor of the nation’s third biggest city giving one on one interviews to only journalists based on skin color. Who’s the craziest?
- 13thvoter - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 6:47 pm:
You need to have right conditions for anyone including Rodney to pull of a W against JB. Big scandal . More info about LaSalle. Madigan indictment. Police reform going bad. Rising property taxes. It’s JBs to lose. GOP wins have mainly been one term flukes recently except Topinka
- The Old Man - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 6:48 pm:
Rodney Davis is a survivor. Just check the polls in the last two congressional election, they even had someone ready to plat taps, but Rodney won big both times. he is smart, a tireless campaigner and probably the only one in the probable field who JB does not want to see on the November ballot for governor.
- 13thvoter - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 6:58 pm:
Also wanted to add that JB can easily tie him to Trump with the voting record and rhetoric. JB would need to work hard with Davis rather than cruise with Bailey and the likes.
- Spliff - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 7:06 pm:
Maybe it has changed in the last 6 years since I worked there but the FOP doesn’t represent any DOC employees.
- Rich Miller - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 7:29 pm:
===FOP doesn’t represent===
It’s more like a club. Those workers are represented by AFSCME.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 21, 21 @ 10:08 pm:
I have decided to heed Rich’s advice and just wait to see who Mike Z puts his chips on.
It will be tough for a Trump Republican to win the general election, though.