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As expected, Dems again tweaked their district maps today

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

* Click here for the revised House map released this morning and click here for the new Senate map. The House Democrats have scheduled a 10:45 hearing this morning for the redistricting committee in Room 114.

* Mark Maxwell

In the House, Democrats drew the following Republicans into the same legislative districts:

    • Representatives Mike Murphy (R-Springfield) and Avery Bourne (R-Raymond)
    • Representatives Chris Miller (R-Oakland) and Adam Niemerg (R-Teutopolis)
    Representatives Joe Sosnowksi (R-Rockford) and Steve Reick (R-Woodstock)
    • Representatives Dan Caulkins (R-Decatur) and Brad Halbrook (R-Shelbyville)
    • Representatives Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) and Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett)
    • Representatives C.D. Davidsmeyer (R-Jacksonville) and Randy Frese (R-Quincy)
    • Representatives Tom Morrison (R-Palatine) and Chris Bos (R-Lake Zurich)

Democrats drew Representative Dan Caulkins (R-Decatur) into the same district with his colleague Brad Halbrook (R-Shelbyville), but Caulkins said he plans to re-establish residency in a district next door to attempt to outmaneuver the gerrymander.

The new maps also spared some Republicans who were bracing for primary battles under the maps that were passed in May. Representatives Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva) and Keith Wheeler (R-Oswego) are no longer paired together in the same district, as well as Representatives Tony McCombie (R-Savanna) and Andrew Chesney (R-Freeport), who will each enjoy the benefit of incumbency in safe districts in the upcoming election.

Calabrese projected the Democrats could pick up six or seven House seats under the gerrymandered maps, but could potentially lose one or two seats in the Senate.
“They’re probably gonna have 80 members [in the House],” he said. “I also have the Democrats actually losing seats in the Senate, because what they did is they really catered to their members. And so there’s like no swing districts in the Senate. The seats are either really Republican or really Democratic.”

I struck out the Sosnowksi vs. Reick primary because this morning’s new House map puts them in separate districts. Stay tuned for more changes.

Also, subscribers know more, including about Chesney’s likely GOP opponent.

* Tribune

U.S. District Judge Robert Dow warned Democrats that they should address concerns about undercounted minority populations when approving new maps during Tuesday’s special session.

That’s just what Democrats said they attempted to do with the new proposed boundaries introduced Monday, including an effort to put more of the Orthodox Jewish community into a single House and Senate district. The new maps also make a greater effort to keep more communities within single districts, Democrats said. […]

But Shlomo Soroka of Agudath Israel of Illinois said the newest map actually further divides the Orthodox Jewish community on the Northwest Side and in the northwest suburbs.

“I actually refuse to believe this was done intentionally, but if it was a mistake, it’s not too late to fix,” Soroka said during a hearing on redistricting late Monday.

My consultant Frank Calabrese says there were no changes to that district.

…Adding… From Frank…

- Posted by Rich Miller        

24 Comments
  1. - Mike - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 10:48 am:

    There were 4 majority latino (50%+) senate districts by Voting Age Population (VAP) from the old maps. #1 at 61.36%, #2 at 53.53%, #11 at 69.60%, and #12 at 64.45%. Latino influence districts in 2010 (Latino’s being the largest demographic) were #20 at 48.76% and #22 at 40.68%. Other large Latino districts were #30 at 37.05%, #39 at 38.48%, #42 at 37.69%, and #43 at 29.39%.
    This new map still has only 4 majority Latino districts even though the Latino voting age population has grown from 13.5% to 16.2%, surpassing the Black VAP. The # of and makeup of the Latino influence districts didn’t change much either. Hopefully MALDEF (Mexican American Legal Defense Fund) challenges this and a court draws a map that accurately reflects our growing Latino population. A suburban senate seat from Aurora to Elgin can easily be drawn to have a 50+% Latino VAP.


  2. - Chicagonk - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 10:50 am:

    Dems potentially having 68% of districts in a D+7 state - The map consultants are certainly earning their money.


  3. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 10:54 am:

    Just noticed that Wrigley is in the new 11th House while the rooftops on Waveland is going into the new 13th. So it’s possible that some home runs could cross House district lines (hopefully more for visiting teams and not the Cubs).


  4. - Seats - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 10:56 am:

    Was curious to see if Kinzinger would be helped out with the maps. As it is he is running against multiple far rights, which is probably his only chance in the primary. He needs those people to split the vote


  5. - Wow - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 11:00 am:

    “Seats”??? Really?? Kinzinger??


  6. - Donnie Elgin - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 11:14 am:

    Very methodical and thoughtful/snark


  7. - Blake - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 11:24 am:

    Senate not having any swing districts is a not only about technology, but probably moreso fewer near 50/50 precincts than our past making gerrymandering easier.


  8. - Central Illinois Centrist - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 11:45 am:

    Any word on congressional?


  9. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 11:52 am:

    So why does Oak Street Beach have to be shoehorned into the 26th? No one lives there.


  10. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 11:55 am:

    ==So why does Oak Street Beach have to be shoehorned into the 26th? No one lives there.==

    Same with Soldier Field in the 26th–which already may be the former home of the Bears by the time of the next remap go-round in 10 years.


  11. - SuburbanR - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 12:12 pm:

    On the R side, moderate State Senator Curran losing Homer Glen and replacing it with Palos, Willow Springs and Justice is a near death blow.


  12. - saud-zide - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 12:40 pm:

    10th ward, blue island, and cal city could easily make a 50% Latino district. Instead it was chopped and split into 5 house districts.


  13. - saud-zide - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 12:41 pm:

    ==Any word on congressional? ==

    Veto sesh


  14. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 1:12 pm:

    ==Same with Soldier Field in the 26th–which already may be the former home of the Bears by the time of the next remap go-round in 10 years.==

    That’s at least connecting two different residential areas with land. To connect Oak Street Beach, one has to go into the water, for no apparent reason.


  15. - low level - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 1:23 pm:

    “I also have the Democrats actually losing seats in the Senate“

    Who / where?


  16. - The Ford Lawyer - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 1:26 pm:

    So with the lumping together of several Eastern Blockheads, are there now some “empty” districts? Anybody know which ones? Rich?


  17. - low level - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 1:29 pm:

    One thing Dems need to watch out for is the Dummymander. Thats when a majority draws a map which forces a legislator out who then runs statewide - and wins.

    See Bob Ehrich, Maryland, 2002. Although he was a congressman, he got drawn out by the Dem majoriry and he ran for governor and won. Could the same be true if IL Dems draw out a state rep or senator who would have been happy to stay put but gets drawn out and wins statewide?


  18. - Valerie F. Leonard - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 1:39 pm:

    As of yesterday’s hearing, Illinois Democratic Legislative Leadership has proposed an amended redistricting plan that sets Blacks back 20 years. In 2011, the redistricting plan was drawn with 16 state rep districts, and 8 Senate districts. UCCRO developed a map with 18 representative districts with 50% or more Black population. They drew 9 Black senate districts. Our elected representatives TOLD us back in May that their plan included 15 Black rep districts and 7 Black senate districts. I was going through the data that supports their maps to find that in ACTUALITY, they only drew 12 Black rep districts and 6 Black senate districts.

    The Democrats were sued by the Republicans and MALDEF, and the judge warned them to fix the flaws in the map, otherwise the trial would go forward in September. What did the Democratic Legislators do? They produced a map that only has 8 Black representative districts and 4 Black senate districts.

    It should be noted that Black people made up 14% of Illinois population in 2011. We make up 14% of the state’s population in 2021. We may have moved, but not that much. We have new Census numbers, but they are not that much different from ACS. Yet, the Democrats have produced maps that dilute the Black vote. Every version they produce dilutes our voting power more than the previous plan. Blacks are the Democrats’ most loyal constituency. This is our reward.


  19. - Valerie F. Leonard - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 1:39 pm:

    The Illinois Democratic Legislative Leadership has proposed an amended redistricting plan that sets Blacks back 20 years. In 2011, the redistricting plan was drawn with 16 state rep districts, and 8 Senate districts. UCCRO developed a map with 18 representative districts with 50% or more Black population. They drew 9 Black senate districts. Our elected representatives TOLD us back in May that their plan included 15 Black rep districts and 7 Black senate districts. I was going through the data that supports their maps to find that in ACTUALITY, they only drew 12 Black rep districts and 6 Black senate districts. The Democrats were sued by the Republicans and MALDEF, and the judge warned them to fix the flaws in the map, otherwise the trial would go forward in September. What did the Democratic Legislators do? They produced a map that only has 8 Black representative districts and 4 Black senate districts. It should be noted that Black people made up 14% of Illinois population in 2011. We make up 14% of the state’s population in 2021. We may have moved, but not that much. We have new Census numbers, but they are not that much different from ACS. Yet, the Democrats have produced maps that dilute the Black vote. Every version they produce dilutes our voting power more than the previous plan. Blacks are the Democrats’ most loyal constituency. This is our reward.


  20. - Don't Bloc Me In - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 2:42 pm:

    I believe Wilhour is also in the same district as Halbrook and Caulkins.


  21. - Huh? - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 4:26 pm:

    == Yet, the Democrats have produced maps that dilute the Black vote.==

    The Black speaker of the IL House purposely did that?


  22. - Mike K - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 8:17 pm:

    Anyone hear why Tom Morrison wasn’t in attendance today? Seems like an important day?


  23. - Valerie F. Leonard - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 10:18 pm:

    Yes, our Black Speaker of the House, who is an attorney, and the largest contingent of a Black Caucus we have ever had historically in Illinois, voted for a redistricting plan that dilutes the Black Vote. You have to ask them why. I’m just looking at data and boundaries.


  24. - Valerie F. Leonard - Tuesday, Aug 31, 21 @ 10:22 pm:

    The Speaker doesn’t vote, but the Legislative Black Caucus does. I remember attending a meeting early on where I had questions about the map, and the Speaker assured the group that he’d never let something like this happen. Guess what? It happened.


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