Remap roundup
Thursday, Oct 21, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Top Democrats have been saying this publicly since the moment the new maps were released…
Illinois Democratic legislative leaders said privately Wednesday that revisions can be expected in their proposed map of the state’s congressional districts amid concerns within the party that some districts as drawn up now could flip to Republicans.
Press release last Friday…
“This proposal is an excellent first draft that amplifies diverse voices and gives every person in our state a say in government,” said Rep. Elizabeth Hernandez, D-Cicero, Chairperson of the House Redistricting Committee. [Emphasis added.]
* This whole exercise has looked to me like a head fake for days now. The map is obviously not the overwhelmingly Democratic monstrosity that so many predicted and continue to claim it is. Instead of 14-3, it’s more like 11-3 with maybe three potential tossups (Lauren Underwood, Sean Casten, the vacant 17th and then there’s the Newman-Kinzinger pairing)…
* And this pining for Madigan and Mapes among the old-timers in the delegation really needs to stop. Their day is done…
The explanation we’ve heard that makes the most sense is that Assembly leaders, in particular new House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch and the almost as new Senate president, Don Harmon, just weren’t ready for this one. After all, it’s been 10 years since the last remap, COVID has created turmoil everywhere, and delayed results from the 2020 Census forced some awkward last-minute juggling.
Put a different way, the ruling party no longer had an old pro on hand like the deposed speaker, Mike Madigan, who has been through the remap process numerous times. If nothing else, Madigan always knew how to ram a bill through and get it to stick while making most of the players—at least in his own camp—marginally happy. Though Welch and Harmon have done a pretty good job overall lately, Madigan’s absence on the remap may well have been felt.
In any event, this proposed map likely can be fixed without too much difficulty. Some other Democrats will have to sacrifice friendly territory to shore up Underwood and Newman. It all depends on people being reasonable—and on Welch and Harmon getting them to agree.
That last paragraph is absolutely spot-on. Delegation members are going to have to agree to give up some turf to help each other out and this thing gets wrapped up pretty quickly. Newman and Garcia, for instance, should finally acquiesce to a second Latino district, which will mean some sacrifices by both members, and likely by others in the delegation as well.
As I’ve been saying since the beginning, this remap proposal can be seen as a message to the delegation and to various other players. And one of those messages is the delegation needs to start cooperating with Springfield so they can help each other.
* Politico…
The biggest concerns are that Rep. Marie Newman (3rd) and Rep. Lauren Underwood (14th) will remain in districts that are more conservative than they’d like. “Do they really want to spend $5 million every two years?” one source asked rhetorically.
Meh. That ain’t much of a bluff. They obviously both want to be in Congress. They’ll raise the money.
* And this nifty little list will give you an idea of how sparse Downstate is compared to Chicagoland…
Also, props to the SJ-R for correcting its story’s many mistakes. Politico offered no correction today.
* Related…
* Public speaks out on proposed congressional maps
* General Assembly holds congressional redistricting hearings
- Lake Villa Township - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 11:46 am:
Madigan’s (perhaps former) attorneys are still involved in the redistricting process though, correct? Also yes 6th is clearly a more republican district than the 3rd, republicans are just that scared of having to compete in DuPage
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 11:55 am:
===Madigan’s (perhaps former) attorneys are still involved in the redistricting process though, correct?===
And your point is what?
- Been There - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:00 pm:
====Delegation members are going to have to agree to give up some turf to help each other out====
I am sure Bobby Rush will give up some of that farmland he was complaining about picking up last week.
Actually I am guessing he will be getting more of it and having to give up some of the D+ 49.95% AG margin to Newman and Garcia.
- Lake Villa Township - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:01 pm:
=and your point is what=
that the days of madigan involvement in Illinois redistricting aren’t necessarily over
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:02 pm:
Then it’s a dumb point.
- here we go - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:06 pm:
Chicago Democrats with 60% plus Dem districts really need to stop their whining and sacrifice territory for their fellow Democrats with 5% plus Dem Districts. The greed is not a healthy quality for the party.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:25 pm:
As the Dems try and figure out a map that makes sense to their delegation, and Republicans try and figure out who could be “odd member out”…
… Foster, Schneider, Casten… any chance the GOP can see districts as they are and not run ridiculous nominees and make some earn their seats?
Oberweis is like getting a “Pass” just with a few more letters in his ballot name, as an example.
I’d still like to see a Newman/Kinzinger fall tussle, if things work out *and* Kinzinger can get through a primary
- Anyone Remember - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:26 pm:
Why this obsession with square districts of equal geographic size (like most of Iowa)? Development and populations flow like water, not in nice neat tidy squares.
- phocion - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:28 pm:
Dunno - maybe if the Congressional Democrats who are complaining can get behind the $1.3 trillion infrastructure bill so that state legislators can do some ribbon cutting, they might get more attention in Springfield on the map.
- Phineas Gurley - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:45 pm:
I really like the area chart. Maybe we should try “one acre, one vote?”
- phocion - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:47 pm:
“Their day is done.” Indeed. Problem is Greg Hinz always clings to the “good old days” when party bosses he knew ran things. His continued spouting of “convention wisdom” is beyond old. Greg Hinz’s day is done. Crains can and should do better.
- Middle Way - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:48 pm:
OW “Foster, Schneider, Casten… any chance the GOP can see districts as they are and not run ridiculous nominees and make some earn their seats?” You hit the nail on the head here, but it’s really a demand side problem with party activists (read primary voters) not willing to accept Republican candidates that can win a general. However, it’s always darkest before the dawn…
- Juvenal - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:49 pm:
@Here We Go -
You cannot diminish existing minority districts without running into legal problems. If you are going to ask folks with city precincts to give up turf, it’s going to have to come from Quigley or Schakowsky eventually. Schak is on the state central committee with a bajillion friends, and the best fundraiser in Illinois, so it’s not coming from her.
So, Quigley? Maybe, if there is a new Latino district I think Quigley draws the short straw anyway.
Quigley for Mayor? Why not. He’s progressive, unions and media love him, the guy knows how to budget.
- Sharya Capo - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:49 pm:
==Then it’s a dumb point. ==
What’s with the dyspepsia, Rich?
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:51 pm:
=== not willing to accept Republican candidates that can win a general===
The exact point and problem to your remark there hinges on Tracy, who already embraces insurrectionists, conspiracy theorists, and racist thinkers.
I’d like to hear Tracy say folks like Mary Miller aren’t welcome in the party for those reasons, but I haven’t heard that.
Staving off “sanctions” against Kinzinger isn’t a norm from the party either.
- Sharya Capo - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:54 pm:
Oswego, you haven’t been a Republican since Hastert retired.
- Middle Way - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 12:58 pm:
OW. I thought that Tracy would be a breath of fresh air, but this doesn’t appear to be the case as of yet. Another guy that I’d like to see show some leadership towards guiding the party in a better direction, and is tremendously smart guy with old guard Republican roots, is Richard Porter. Instead of simply “not censuring” Kinzinger early this year, they need to actively build around, and support “better angels” types of candidates like him.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 1:01 pm:
=== you haven’t been a Republican===
… and yet I continue to pull GOP ballots in primaries…
I dunno, if Rauner woulda supported trade labor… if GA members living in higher ed areas supported college budgetary funding…
If you define “Rauner/Trump” as the GOP, that’s devolving, not evolving from an admitted pedofile Hastert. You can look up Hastert’s responses to Judge Durkin on that, if you’d like.
Oberweis? He ruined the party with his purity, Ives has kept that ruinous thinking with her own politics… Mary Miller is not good for the country, let alone a party…
Friend, if you’re worried about where I stand, look where you think you *are* standing.
The ILGOP needs help. They don’t need me. Yet, I was bedrock base for them. Makes ya think.
- Pundent - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 1:03 pm:
=I’d like to hear Tracy say folks like Mary Miller aren’t welcome in the party for those reasons, but I haven’t heard that.=
The full embrace of candidates like Miller is what has left this Independent voter on the outside looking in. Fringe candidates should be repudiated not embraced. For everyone that Tracy wants to “welcome” to the ILGOP there are likely 2X or more that are turned off. And politics, regardless of party, is always a net sum game.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 1:09 pm:
===Instead of simply “not censuring” Kinzinger early this year, they need to actively build around, and support “better angels” types of candidates like him.===
The ILGOP has serious and significant problems, not doing that is another in a state like Illinois.
Another is when maps like these come out, recruitment of viable general election candidates in regions that can allow it, like the suburbs. They don’t want it, it seems.
=== For everyone that Tracy wants to “welcome” to the ILGOP there are likely 2X or more that are turned off.===
To make this map-centric… imagine looking at winnable districts and knowing from jump street any of the listed candidates planning to run and eventually being a nominee alienates the very swing voters needed to flip the map on its head.
But… let’s question *my* Republicanism… let’s question Kinzinger’s purity… I mean…
- Belden Ave - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 1:23 pm:
Hey Sharya Capo, I’ll say it for Rich…
Bite me
- Huh? - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 1:27 pm:
“What’s with the dyspepsia”
Mr. Miller doesn’t abide fools.
- Downstate - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 2:45 pm:
“Why this obsession with square districts of equal geographic size (like most of Iowa)?”
Did you look at the draft map offered last week?
- Blue Dog - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 3:17 pm:
If Biden doesnt start distancing himself from the far left extremists, i coukd see two seats turning red.
- Pundent - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 3:23 pm:
=If Biden doesnt start distancing himself from the far left extremists, i coukd see two seats turning red.=
Which seats? Last I looked we don’t even have a map? And you don’t strike me as a I guy that spends much time in the suburbs of Chicago or has any sense of the political tides in the metro area. The people in the Northern part of this state aren’t nearly as afraid of “the left” as you may be. In fact racism, voting rights, women’s health, insurrection, and domestic terrorism seem to get far more attention. But perhaps you see something in your crystal ball downstate that the rest of us are blind to.
- Blue Dog - Thursday, Oct 21, 21 @ 5:23 pm:
Pundent. One observation i have seen overthe years is that Independents in Virginia and Illi ois vote very similar.