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*** UPDATED x1 *** A quick look at Bost vs. Miller

Friday, Oct 29, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Brenden Moore looks at the new congressional districts

12th — This rural district covers Southern Illinois, including almost everything south of Interstate 70. It also includes some outlying portions of Metro East. This heavily Republican seat includes the homes of Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, and Rep. Mary Miller, R-Oakland.

* Here’s the district map. The purple district above it now belongs to US Rep. Rodney Davis. The red dot in the upper right corner is the location of Rep. Miller’s house

* Ally Mutnick

The new southern district is a combination of Bost’s and Miller’s current seats and a small rectangular arm just out of the northern border to grab Miller’s hometown of Oakland.

“They didn’t do that on purpose,” Bost joked, referring to the Democrats. “They didn’t draw that little area like that.”

Still, he said he plans to run no matter what, even if it meant challenging a colleague.

Miller, meanwhile, began to scurry away when POLITICO asked whether she is planning to run for reelection. A freshman who has faced repeated controversies, Miller perhaps leans more right than the other Republicans in the delegation. She has attended press conferences with the House Freedom Caucus, including one calling for the removal of two GOP colleagues from their committees: Kinzinger and Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

Still, when asked whether she was weighing running against one of her GOP colleagues over another, she suggested she wouldn’t be intimidated by the new maps.

“I have no idea,” she said, “but I can say I laughed when I read that they think they’re terrorizing me. Because I am not scared.”

Bost had $647K cash on hand, compared to Miller’s $432K.

*** UPDATE *** Bost…

U.S. Representative Mike Bost (IL-12) today announced that he is running for re-election in Illinois’ 12th Congressional District:

“With Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi running roughshod in Washington, D.C., Southern Illinoisans need a battle-tested conservative fighting for them now more than ever. Today, I’m proud to announce my candidacy for re-election in the 12th Congressional District. I have never wavered in defense of our constitutional conservative values; and I will always stand up for the hardworking families, veterans, farmers, and job creators of Southern Illinois who feel abandoned by the liberals in Washington.”

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30 Comments
  1. - The Old Man - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:28 am:

    Maybe Miller could run for Lt Gov with Bailey.


  2. - Norseman - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:35 am:

    Many people are saying that a documentary is being made about this primary. Working title is supposed to be, “Crazy and Crazier.”


  3. - Fayette County - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:37 am:

    I’m just glad the last map kept me out of the 12th. Now I hope she doesn’t decide to run in the 15th. 2 years having her as a Representative is 2 years too many.


  4. - 47th Ward - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:45 am:

    ===The red dot in the upper right corner is the location of Rep. Miller’s house…===

    Far to the right, like, way way right.


  5. - natty lite - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:48 am:

    Lol at “…Miller perhaps leans more right than the other Republicans in the delegation.”

    She got 70% of the vote last time, and since then she has served up more red meat than a Rend Lake cookout. I wouldn’t want to try to out-Trump her in that district. How quaint Rep. Bost’s nearly-10-year-old rant seems in comparison.


  6. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:49 am:

    Bost is Miller Lite.

    Pun intended. Bost voted to toss out election results. Not being quite the nut Miller is means nothing.


  7. - Kate - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:49 am:

    Wow, that District is huge! I guess Republican control of an area for decades leads to people fleeing those counties. Does Miller or Bost have any ideas on how to create jobs, increase population in this District and grow wealth like Democrats are doing in Cook and the collar counties?


  8. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:49 am:

    To the post,

    What I wrote before…

    ===Miller could choose to run more Trumpier than Bost, or more Trumpier than Davis.

    Of course, Miller won’t be living in Davis’ district, and that could be an annoyance while also trying to call Davis disloyal to Trump.

    Miller could take on Bost, but Bost has literal decades of evolution to his Trump bona fides, not much running to any center for “Bost Toss”===

    Miller will need to convince voters that have known Bost for decades through television and radio, statehouse and Congress, that she (Miller) is better than someone who win hearts with that “Bost Toss” and picture after picture, video after video of Bost with Trump

    Out “Bosting” Bost… it’ll be fun watching.


  9. - bkhartbnjo - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:50 am:

    I had not been paying attention, but I now find that I’ll be in the new 13th, barely. I suspect that I will be represented by someone whom I will prefer to Davis.


  10. - PublicServant - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 11:53 am:

    === I laughed when I read that they think they’re terrorizing me. Because I am not scared. ===

    Pretty sure scaring her wasn’t the intent here…just sayin.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 12:00 pm:

    ===I wouldn’t want to try to out-Trump her in that district. How quaint Rep. Bost’s nearly-10-year-old rant seems in comparison.===

    Miller is going to need to convince voters that have known Bost since the 90s that her first term is more impactful than Bost’s service to southern Illinois, spanning 4 decades


  12. - Highland, IL - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 12:02 pm:

    === Miller perhaps leans more right than the other Republicans in the delegation. ===

    This is an understatement.


  13. - Scallyfan - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 12:20 pm:

    Slightly off topic, but does anyone know what percentage of the new 16th District is currently represented by Kinz and what percentage is represented by LaHood??


  14. - JS Mill - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 12:41 pm:

    ==== Miller perhaps leans more right than the other Republicans in the delegation. ===

    This is an understatement.=

    Of the year.

    Mary Miller is so far to the right, she makes the mullahs that run the authoritarian Iranian theocracy look like hippies.


  15. - ZC - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 12:58 pm:

    *nods* At least on this, you done good, IL Dems. Nice work.


  16. - Blue Dog - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 12:59 pm:

    I’d like shiela Simon to give it one more try.


  17. - Candy Dogood - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 12:59 pm:

    Mike Bost, despite his many faults and dog murdering past, at least knows better than to quote Hitler in a favorable fashion in public.

    ===Miller won’t be living in Davis’ district===

    There are lots of instances of people leaving their “hometown” who remain successful in their re-election effort in their “new” district.

    In a state where Democrats have announced their run for a district before it’s borders existed, or received a nomination to U.S. House while living and working full time in another state, we shouldn’t just assume changing your address is a big enough deal to stop someone.

    Is it inconvenient? Sure. But in some cases it’s just a poke in the eye.

    I would be fascinated to see Davis’ fund raising go against Miller’s bigot power driven grass roots campaigning.


  18. - Deep South - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 1:00 pm:

    A Bost/Miller primary might force Bost to actually interact with the voters. A debate between the two would be so much fun. The media might be able to ask him questions, ask him to support his positions and his lackluster, backbencher record. Miller might be forced to put on her best Marjorie Taylor Green act. A wounded primary winner might face a real challenge from a good Democratic candidate.


  19. - CubsFan16 - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 1:16 pm:

    “A wounded primary winner might face a real challenge from a good Democratic candidate.”

    In that district…me thinks not.


  20. - natty lite - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 1:20 pm:

    “voters that have known Bost since the 90s”
    That’s a relatively small group, given that he really rose to prominence with his 2012 rant, and that was while representing ~100,000 people as state rep. Rep. Miller has gotten plenty of attention in 2 short years. The proposed new district includes a decent chunk of her existing constituents (Effingham, Harrisburg, Centralia, etc.) — who gave her 50,000 more votes than Rep. Bost got in his 2020 race. I’d posit that the winner of that primary wouldn’t be the one who has been “more impactful” but rather the one who can stand closest to Trump, Q, anti-COVID conspiracies, and all the rest. Wouldn’t be an easy race for either candidate but I think she’d be the favorite due to her extra level of Trumpiness.


  21. - DarkHorse - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 1:25 pm:

    Re: Rodney Davis - does this mean his current district, IL-13, will be an open seat? Any idea who the potential contenders are for that one? Maybe the person who almost knocked off Davis in 2018?


  22. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 1:26 pm:

    DeepSouth-

    I’ve lived down here all my life. I’ve seen this area go from as blue as Massachusetts to red as Texas.

    No Dem, and I mean no Dem, is winning a CD south of 70.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 1:30 pm:

    ===That’s a relatively small group, given that he really rose to prominence with his 2012 rant, and that was while representing ~100,000 people===

    You must not realize that being in the GA downstate, the television coverage of him over a four decade span… the media coverage of Miller likely begins with her quoting the the leader of National Socialists in Germany.

    Bost can’t be “Out Bosted”

    It’ll be fun to see.


  24. - Candy Dogood - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 1:43 pm:

    ===No Dem, and I mean no Dem, is winning a CD south of 70. ===

    So Republican you can quote Hitler and get elected.


  25. - Sharia Capo - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 2:16 pm:

    Thirteen is an open seat only if Rodney Davis jumps for JB’s tempting Halloween apple in IL-15. If the Republicans are to take back the House, they must deploy their human resources intelligently.

    Miller to IL-15 and Davis to hold the IL-13 fort.

    The union boss-ridden Budzinski is no sure thing. Nor is the Democratic nomination a slam dunk to a fall victory. Londrigan (to answer Elvis) lost by NINE points in a good Democratic year. The newfangled 13th is about eleven points more Democratic than the old, but is that enough in 2022?


  26. - Arsenal - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 2:53 pm:

    ==If the Republicans are to take back the House, they must deploy their human resources intelligently. ==

    That’s a lot to ask in Davis’ case. He’s supposed to pass up a safe Republican seat for a seat Biden won by 10? I know that sometimes you have to roll the hard six, but it’s a lot to ask.


  27. - Jibba - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 2:58 pm:

    ==in a good Democratic year===

    It wasn’t. Dems lost seats in Congress. But I agree that Davis can’t be counted out in the new 13, even if it is a harder road. I think he’d still beat Londrigan.


  28. - Downstate - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 3:35 pm:

    “No Dem, and I mean no Dem, is winning a CD south of 70.”

    One only has to look at judicial races in this region to understand that. It’s the inverse of Chicago.

    Republican judicial candidates have been outspent nearly 5-1 by the vested interests of the Madison County bar, and have prevailed in a veritable cake-walk. One Appellate Candidate (R) didn’t spend enough to launch a web-page, rather relying on a facebook page. He beat his opponent 60-40, while being outspent more than 6-1.


  29. - CubsFan16 - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 3:42 pm:

    “Thirteen is an open seat only if Rodney Davis jumps for JB’s tempting Halloween apple in IL-15″

    Yes, I’m sure Rodney will go out of his way to run in a strong Democrat leaning district instead of the Republican one he was drawn into.


  30. - Interesting - Friday, Oct 29, 21 @ 3:46 pm:

    = Mike Bost, despite his many faults and dog murdering past=

    Could you possibly be more out of touch with this District? The dog in question seriously injured Bost’s toddler daughter, miraculously not killing her. A jury of his peers aquitted him of charges that should have never been filed.

    Have you ever been to Murphysboro? Bost was given demerits for not shooting the dog’s owner.

    Citizens in Southern Illinois find your commentary absurd and irrelevant.


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