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Hospitalizations appear to have plateaued since last Wednesday (but at a very high level)
Monday, Jan 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller * Hospitalizations still look like they might possibly be plateauing. Thursday’s hospitalizations were 7,096, down two from last Wednesday. They edged up just a little bit over the weekend and now they’re at 7,114, which is essentially back to where they were on Wednesday. But that’s still basically a record number of people in the hospital. Much the same is happening with ICU beds and ventilators. Hopefully, the trend starts moving the other way soon. Here’s Marni Pyke at the Daily Herald…
…Adding… Hannah Meisel digs into the numbers here.
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- ArchPundit - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:32 pm:
This is hopefully good news. It seems that there is a sharp drop after the sharp increase so let’s hope that’s where we are going while planning for contingencies. The US hasn’t dropped as fast as other countries in previous waves, but the disruption this time is hopefully short.
- illdoc - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:43 pm:
Talked to a friend in South Africa. Their latest wave passed relatively quickly. Hopefully will be the same here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:44 pm:
===South Africa===
Lots of differences, including that they are in the midst of summer.
- ArchPundit - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:44 pm:
Yeah, hopefully in my comment is doing a lot of work.
- Pundent - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:51 pm:
Well let’s hope that this is in fact the last variant of concern. And I put the emphasis on hope as well because I think it’s about all we have left.
- Captain Who - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:54 pm:
How many of those in Illinois hospitals were admitted from Covid as opposed to those admitted for something else and incidentally tested positive after admittance. It’s been reported in New York that roughly half of Covid admissions were people admitted for other reasons and then tested positive. According to Governor BAKER, Massachusetts will also report those things separately. It seems to me a good idea.
- Captain Who - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:57 pm:
Sorry, I must have fat thumbed all caps for Baker.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 4:10 pm:
Here’s a hopeful number: The rolling 7-day average for percent daily increase in hospital admissions peaked at 4.75% on Dec 31. Since then, that average has been gradually and steadily declining. It is currently 1.7%. While still an increase, it indicates the curve has been bending in the right direction.
- thoughts matter - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 4:22 pm:
Even if someone went into the hospital and then tested positive, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be counted. What we don’t know is if they would have been released already if they didn’t have covid. In other words, had the other issue been treated and they are only still there because of covid.
I’m getting informed about more people testing positive and being hospitalized in my circle of friends( or their circle of friends) than ever before. That is meaningful to me. The plateau may be around but not in my area.
- Three Dimensional Checker - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 4:36 pm:
I am hoping the pretty bad weather in Chicago recently is forcing people to stay home voluntarily. A polar vortex would not be the worse thing right now because home people would want to stay in their houses all day (or at least I would).
- Thomas Paine - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 5:12 pm:
@Pot Calling Kettle -
That is an over-simplified model, and its that kind of over-simplified modelling that has led to bad policy making.
What we see reported as “a curve” is a bunch of different outbreaks involving multiple sub-communities in overlapping geographies. Having one-or-more populations with outbreaks in decline can mask other communities with outbreaks on the rise. Remember when we thought COVID was under control in 2020 because high case numbers in the Black community were masked by relative wellness in the much larger White community?
On December 30th, Whites made up only 20% of new COVID cases in Chicago, even though they are just under 50% of population in the city, and even though they have far better access to testing.
I believe the racial disparity in COVID in Chicago is part of the reason we have policy disparities between Lightfoot and the CTU.
We know that the incubation period of Omicron is half that of Delta, and we also know the average hospital stay is about half that of Delta, but its unclear whether the lag between a positive test and a hospital admission has changed.
It used to be about 18 days, and so if you want to know whether hospital rates were really declining or not, all you had to do was go back to see what the positive test result curve was doing 18 days ago.
Does anyone know how many days it was between the peak in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in European countries?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 5:16 pm:
===even though they are just under 50% of population in the city===
Um, no. 31.4%
- BTO2 - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 5:48 pm:
It’s bad, close friend and my cousin tested positive over the weekend for 2nd time. Friend was positive in October and cousin in September. Both wear masks and had their booster shots.
- JoanP - Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 9:59 pm:
= How many of those in Illinois hospitals were admitted from Covid as opposed to those admitted for something else and incidentally tested positive after admittance. =
As pointed out in a NYT opinion essay, “. . . entering the hospital *with* the virus versus *for* the virus isn’t a relevant distinction if the hospital doesn’t have the beds or providers needed to care for its patients.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/opinion/omicron-covid-er.html