* Daily hospitalizations dropped from 7,353 reported yesterday to 7,219 reported today. That reduces the 7-day rolling average increase to 0.24 percent from 1.1 percent yesterday. It was 5.1 percent during the last week of December. The 14-day rolling average increase is currently 1.9 percent. It was 3.7 percent during the last two weeks of December.

Still, try not to get your hopes too high…

“I know that the data is maybe giving you a sense of some potential relief. I am feeling that, but I can’t say for sure that we are flattening or past a peak,” [Dr. Arwady] said. “But what I can say is there is real good news in terms of some of (our) response.”

The governor is holding a covid press conference today at 1:30, so I’ll either do a separate post or update this one, depending.

* Tribune…

As Illinois schools struggle to staff classrooms pummeled by the latest COVID-19 surge, state officials said Tuesday they halved the recommended quarantine time for students and teachers from 10 to five days.

Officials with the Illinois Department of Public Health and the state’s board of education said earlier this month the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recently updated isolation and quarantine guidance, which was slashed from 10 to five days, would only apply to the general public, and would not yet impact schools.

But on Tuesday, officials with the Illinois State Board of Education said effective immediately, the state will follow the CDC’s guidance on shortening isolation and quarantine periods. The guidance applies to all public and nonpublic schools that serve students in prekindergarten through 12th grade.

The guidance says students and school employees who test positive for COVID-19, regardless of vaccination status, must “stay home for a minimum of five days and a maximum of 10 days after the first day of symptoms,” or the date from a positive viral test for those who are asymptomatic, according to the ISBE website. […]

“But this new guidance looks extremely difficult to maintain, because there are so many permutations. … It assumes that every mask is good, and that all schools have the ability to maintain 6 feet of distance,” [Dan Montgomery, president of the Illinois Federation of Teachers] said, referring to a slate of directives that accompanies the CDC’s shorter quarantine recommendation.

The guidance is here.

* Marni Pyke…

The patient surge comes as experts pin hopes on spiraling cases peaking this month. However, hospitalizations trail infection rates, which could mean “two to three weeks before we see a decline,” Edward Hospital Dr. Jonathan Pinsky suggested Tuesday.

Edward, like other hospitals, has been hitting admission highs caused by the highly contagious omicron variant of COVID-19. Staff members “are so exhausted and so tired of this,” said Pinsky, medical director of infection control and prevention.

* Let’s circle back to the very dumb “with” or “for” hospitalization argument…

Some COVID-positive patients are unquestionably hospitalized for COVID: They are mostly unvaccinated, have classic respiratory problems, and require supplemental oxygen. Omicron might be less severe than Delta, but that doesn’t make it mild. “If a virus that causes less severe lung disease affects an extraordinarily large proportion of the population, you’ll still get a lot of them in the hospital with severe lung disease,” Sara Murray, a hospitalist at UC San Francisco, told me. The proportion of such patients varies around the country: In areas where Omicron has taken off, it’s lower than in previous surges, but it remains high in communities that still have a lot of Delta infections or low vaccination rates, as The Washington Post has reported. At the University of Nebraska Medical Center, “the vast majority of our COVID-positive cases are at the hospital for reasons related to their COVID infection,” James Lawler, an infectious-disease physician, told me. […]

These patients whose problems were exacerbated by COVID are often misleadingly bundled together with the smaller group whose medical problems are truly unrelated to COVID. In fairness, there’s no easy way to tell, for example, whether a COVID-positive person’s heart attack was triggered by their infection or whether it would have happened anyway. But health problems don’t line up to afflict patients one at a time. They intersect, overlap, and feed off one another. The entire for-COVID-or-with-COVID debate hinges on a false binary. “The health-care system is in crisis and on the verge of collapse,” Spencer said. “It doesn’t matter whether it’s with or for. It’s a pure deluge of numbers.”

Even the truly incidental cases increase the strain. COVID-positive people must be kept apart from other patients, which complicates hospitals’ ability to use the beds they have. These patients need to be monitored in case their infection progresses into something more severe. If they start dying for unrelated reasons, their family won’t be allowed into their room. The health-care workers who treat them need to wear full personal protective equipment. If they need follow-up care, they can’t be discharged to a nursing home or similar facility. They’re taking up space and attention when hospitals are short on both. “If you’re 90 percent full and you suddenly have 10 percent more patients, I don’t care if it’s half COVID, all COVID, incidental COVID—it just matters that you’re full,” Faust said.

It’s kinda like debating whether a massive ongoing forest fire was lit by matches or a Bic. It’s both and the flames are spreading while y’all suck your thumbs. Do something to help or get the heck out of the way.

* On to national Politico…

A senior [Biden] administration official argued an effort to send N95 or KN95 masks to Americans would make little difference because “half the country won’t wear any mask.”

“It may be popular in certain corners of Twitter, but for masking to work as a public health tool, people need to actually wear them,” the official said. “To prevent spread, the focus should be maximizing the number of people simply wearing a mask in the first place, not shifting the goal posts to urge everyone to go above and beyond to use high filtration masks to make it less likely they themselves will inhale particles.”

Duncan Black replies…

Plenty of people wear masks, plenty of people are willing to wear masks, all of those people would happily wear *better masks.* Polls show lots of support for wearing masks, and even if there are corners of the country where this is not the majority view, it’s still a substantial minority view and every little bit helps.

Another reason to do it, like many other things, is to signal that it’s important, to model behavior by putting resources behind it. And, sure, you probably aren’t going to convince the MAGAs to wear them, but making them available for the people *who will wear them* helps! Every little bit helps!

Encouraging (not even requiring) mask wearing is the lowest cost intervention there is, even if it involves mailing out millions of the fancy ones!

I love the swipe at *twitter,* which always come from the people whose brains are absolutely the most poisoned by social media, but who are convinced it’s everybody else with that problem.

And, hey, maybe masks are dumb, but you guys are in charge and you better figure something out, aside from yelling at people to go to work sick.

Agreed.

* More…

* How to avoid getting scammed while seeking a COVID-19 test in Illinois

* Where vaccine rates lag, some Chicago restaurants feel mandate pinch; others see sales rise with comfort levels

* Biden announces millions of COVID tests for schools to help them stay open

* How do I get a free, at-home COVID-19 test? Illinois insurers and pharmacies are still working out details.