Fun with numbers
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Um…
Sales have fallen significantly since Illinois dispensaries unloaded a record $137 million worth of recreational cannabis products last December, raising concerns that limited supply and sky-high prices could be pushing consumers into the illicit market.
Illinois’ 110 licensed pot shops tallied $117 million in sales in January and just under $114 million in February, the lowest monthly haul since last March.
Massive monthly receipts had been one of the few bright spots for Illinois’ highly regulated recreational pot program, which has generated over $2 billion in sales over its first two years despite some month-to-month dips.
OK, wait a second. Last year, monthly sales ranged from a low of $81 million in February, to a high of $137 million in December. Sales stayed in the range of $115 million to $123 million from April through November, except for a spike in July, which was partly attributed to Lollapalooza. So, we’re back to being about where we were then, and much higher than where we were a year ago.
Also, hmm. Doesn’t December contain a very large religious/consumer holiday known as Christmas? Gifts and holiday partying could’ve been a big reason for that spike.
You see this sort of reporting a lot with crime statistics, only in reverse. Chicago media outlets regularly compare 2020-2022 murder stats to 2019, when the city’s murders were trending lower for three years.
The truth is, February’s cannabis sales were 40.7 percent higher than last February. January sales were 31.5 percent higher than the previous January. Let’s see some more numbers before concluding there’s a gigantic problem that requires mandated price or tax cuts or whatever.
But, yeah, let’s also get more growers and dispensaries up and running, for crying out loud.
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Campaign notebook
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* For a guy who doesn’t want to answer questions about former President Trump, this opens the door to even more questions. But, hey, it’s a campaign. Click the pic for the video…
“Bailey and the Never Trumper.”
…Adding… DGA…
“Richard Irvin is desperate to pass his Trump problem off to someone else because he’s afraid to tell voters where he stands,” said DGA Senior Communications Advisor Christina Amestoy. “After months of dodging questions on who he voted for, Irvin wants to deflect to his opponents — but Illinoisans will see right through his hypocrisy. It’s a simple yes or no: did you vote for Donald Trump?”
* Danny Davis primary opponent Kina Collins…
In the 2020 election, Black women turned out and helped the Democratic party win the Presidency and a majority in the Senate. We are the bulwark of the Democratic party’s voting base, but when Black women like me choose to run, Democratic leadership immediately questions our “electability.”
If the Democratic party wants to rely on Black women to win elections, they have to fight to give us a seat at the table. Representation matters. Period.
Black women have to work twice as hard to raise the same amount of money and convince people of their electability, but we are putting in the work and shifting the narrative. Can you help us keep our momentum going by donating $15?
Donate »
In an Axios article published last Sunday, they asked me about the electability of Black women, and my answer was simple: Democratic leadership say they love Black women — until it’s time to elect us.
If elected, I will be the youngest Black woman ever elected to Congress. I am part of a generation of voters and leaders at the core of the Democratic party and we deserve to be represented in Congress.
She’s not wrong about her party.
* Valencia campaign…
After Alexi Giannoulias yesterday refused to disclose his clients and any investments directed on their behalf while he worked for seven years at BNY Mellon, a major Wall Street bank that has close ties to the gun industry and fossil fuel companies, among others, Secretary of State candidate Anna Valencia released the following statement:
“My opponent is quick to talk the talk when it comes to transparency, but he is refusing to walk the walk. It took less than two weeks for him to break his commitment to Illinoisans that he would always prioritize transparency. But voters deserve to know that instead of fighting the Trump and Rauner administrations over the last decade, he worked as wealth director for a Wall Street bank with clear ties to the gun industry, coal companies and even North Korea. Who else was he involved with?
“He cannot hide behind secret corporate agreements while pledging transparency, especially given his checkered track record that includes losing hundreds of millions of dollars in college savings for Illinois families and serving as senior loan officer at his family’s bank that gave loans to convicted mobsters. Illinois voters deserve to know who exactly my opponent was working for during his time as a Wall Street banker and how he was directing his clients’ wealth. We are waiting.”
Background
Crain’s Chicago Business reported last night that Secretary of State candidate Alexi Giannoulias is refusing to disclose his clients and any investments he led while serving as wealth director for BNY Mellon. The Valencia campaign sent Giannoulias a letter one week ago, on March 10, requesting that he follow through on his pledge to transparency with Illinois voters. Read the letter here.
Now, go to Greg’s update at the bottom of his story…
“Giannoulias’ spokesman is saying a little more. From a statement: “To clarify Valencia’s misguided attempt to distort the facts, Alexi never was an ‘investment banker.’ While he was at BNY Mellon, he never invested any money or directed any investments. During his tenure there, Alexi served as a wealth director whose role was to develop new business and introduce new clients to the firm.”
So he was a rainmaker.
* Republican SoS candidate responds to the whole thing…
As the Democrat candidates for Secretary of State squabble about whose unethical connections are more disqualifying, they are proving the point that independent leadership is needed in the Secretary of State’s office to ensure Illinoisans receive their services efficiently and effectively in all 102 counties.
John Milhiser released the following statement:
“While the candidates on the Democrat side of the aisle point fingers at one another, they are making it clear to Illinoisans that we need leaders, not career politicians, in statewide office. With the indictments of so many Illinois politicians, we need to root out corruption in state government now more than ever. I’ve investigated and prosecuted public corruption, and I have overseen a large executive office covering 46 counties in Illinois. I know what needs to be done to help restore faith in state government, and that’s something my Democrat opponents are not capable of achieving.”
* Irvin campaign…
Out of control crime rates in JB Pritzker’s Illinois are all the more striking when compared to the proven success Richard Irvin has had reducing crime rates as Mayor of Aurora, as recently released stats illustrate.
The facts prove that there have been significant decreases in crime rates in Aurora in 2021 with heightened efforts to increase accountability, transparency, and engagement:
• 45.5% decrease in murders
• 40.4% decrease in burglary
• 31.8% decrease in shootings
• 24.4% decrease in robbery
• 10.6% decrease in theft
• 9.9% decrease in motor vehicle theft
“Richard Irvin’s record in Aurora of lowering crime rates, balancing budgets, and standing up to the Madigan Machine stands in stark contrast to that of J.B. Pritzker, who has allowed crime to spiral out of control, pushed for higher taxes and spending, and enabled Mike Madigan’s criminal enterprise,” said Irvin for Illinois Spokesperson Eleni Demertzis.
In addition to a reduction in crime, the city has gained nationwide acclaim and earned a number of accolades, including being named one of the Top 25 Happiest Cities in America for 2022.
…Adding… If you click on the Irvin link, you’ll see that violent crime rose by 8.2 percent year over year, mainly due to an almost doubling of Criminal Sexual Assault offenses.
* Politico…
Monica Gordon has won the endorsement of Secretary of State Jesse White in her bid for Cook County commissioner in the 5th District. Gordon heads government affairs and community relations at Chicago State University.
Gordon previously headed the Black Caucus Foundation and ran unsuccessfully for the legislature. She’s also running for Bloom Township Democratic Committeeperson.
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* Yvette Shields at the Bond Buyer...
“Corruption of public officials makes headlines, but if it is one-time in nature it is unlikely to have any credit impact,” said Emily Raimes, a vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s.
“We consider corruption as part of our overall governance assessment, however, if it is long-term or systemic, particularly if it has affected the government’s financial stability, or is likely to affect financial stability in the future,” she said.
“Anything in government relies on some level of trust. I think if corruption is rampant or repetitive it can make the next tax increase or capital request harder to approve because people don’t trust you are going to do the right thing,” said Geoffrey Buswick, sector lead and lead Illinois analyst at S&P.
“That’s the longer play that is harder to assess in credit because when does that erosion of public trust limit flexibility? It’s not always clear,” Buswick said.
There are those who believe the Fair Tax tanked for this very reason.
Plenty more quotes in that story, but I wanted to focus on what the raters said, so click here and read the rest.
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Kinda feels like the old days
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The decades-old intraparty Maywood/Proviso Township war is apparently flaring up again, or it never went away. It’s been quite awhile since I looked at it. Here’s Bob Skolnik…
Two lawyers with local ties are vying to become a judge. But to get to the bench they will have to defeat the wife of the Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives.
ShawnTe Raines-Welch, who is married to House Speaker Chris Welch (D-Hillside), will face three opponents in the June 28 Democratic primary race to fill the Rogers vacancy in the 4th Judicial Subcircuit which covers western Cook County from just south of O’Hare Airport to Palos Township, including Riverside resident Chloe Pedersen, former Brookfield resident Jerry Barrido and Patrick Campanelli, an attorney with a solo practice.
Pedersen and Raines-Welch both have strong political connections. Pedersen is the niece of Cook County Clerk Karen Yarbrough. Some might see the race as sort of a rematch of a 2006 primary when Chris Welch, then the president of the Proviso Township High School District 209 Board of Education, challenged then state Rep. Yarbrough in the Democratic primary. Yarbrough handily won that matchup with nearly 73 percent of the vote.
Yarbrough ran against Rep. Eugene Moore in the 1998 Democratic primary and lost. During that same primary, Rep. Moore won a race for Proviso Township Democratic committeeperson. The following January, Moore was appointed to the Cook County Recorder of Deeds position vacated after Jesse White won the secretary of state’s race. Moore’s ally Wanda Sharp was appointed to his House seat. Yarbrough took out Rep. Sharp in the 2000 primary, then took out Committeeman Moore in 2006, then took out Recorder Moore in 2012. Speaker Welch was on Team Gene. There’s so much more to this and I covered it extensively back in the day, but you get the gist.
* And here is some interesting bravado from another candidate in the judicial primary…
Barrido, a veteran public defender who tries cases at the Maybrook Courthouse, said he deliberately filed to run against Raines-Welch because he said he wanted to give voters an opportunity to pick someone who is independent of the Democratic Party machine.
“I picked this race to go against the speaker’s wife,” Barrido said. “I deliberately wanted to give the people a choice as to whether or not they wanted to go with the status quo Democratic politics or to have someone who is a fighter in the courtroom, who has a reputation as a zealous advocate and a hard worker period.”
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FOP declares all-out war on Martwick
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I told subscribers this morning about this and other FOP-involved races. Here’s Fran Spielman…
Fraternal Order of Police President John Catanzara is demanding that three of his union’s strongest City Council supporters choose between their loyalties to his group and their allegiance to the firefighters union.
At a stormy meeting last week, Catanzara insisted that the three council members, all former firefighters — Nick Sposato (38th), Anthony Napolitano (41st) and Jim Gardiner (45th) — pledge their support to Erin Jones, a Chicago Police Department detective challenging incumbent state Sen. Rob Martwick (D-Chicago).
Martwick is a favorite of the Chicago Firefighters Union Local 2, having championed a costly firefighter pension sweetener over Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s strenuous objections.
But Catanzara said his members want Martwick gone for having helped the Black Caucus push what Catanzara called a “ridiculously left-wing, radical Democrat” criminal justice reform bill through the General Assembly. […]
“Our members want Martwick’s head on a platter. … He has to go. And you either are for our member or you are for Bob Martwick, who helped champion that bill. There is no middle ground. And if you do support Bob Martwick, there will be retribution in the elections next year. You’re just going to have to answer for that support,” Catanzara said in a You-Tube message to his members posted Tuesday night.
* The full quote is weird, though. I isolated the audio…
It sounds to me like Catanzara said “I didn’t say that our members want Martwick’s head on a platter…” but that wouldn’t make much sense.
I still wonder how they think the FOP can win a Democratic primary with a Republican, but I suppose we’re about to find out.
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* Tribune…
A gas giveaway by entrepreneur and former mayoral candidate Willie Wilson caused a headache for some Chicagoans Thursday morning, and not from fuel fumes: Cars reportedly lined up overnight in anticipation of the 7 a.m. start time, causing backups near the preselected gas stations around the city.
Commenters on Wilson’s Facebook page complained of lines of cars stretching for blocks. […]
Wilson pledged to give away $200,000 of gasoline via $50 gifts to motorists filling up Thursday, on a first-come, first-serve basis. But from social media posts, it sounded like hundreds of people were so concerned about being among the recipients they treated the event like Black Friday.
“The soaring price of gas has caused a hardship for too many of our citizens,” Wilson said in a news release.
* Some people just love to line up for free stuff and don’t stop to think that maybe waiting in miles-long lines is probably not worth the effort and is wasted time…
* But I do agree with this take…
The Democrats at the national, state and local levels ought to pay close attention to this reaction to Wilson’s offer.
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* Press release…
New emails released by the Sullivan-Murphy campaign today show deep ties between the “Madigan enterprise” and the Pritzker administration.
In 2020, WBEZ reporting revealed Gov. J.B. Pritzker hired 35 individuals from then-House Speaker Michael Madigan’s “clout list,” costing taxpayers $2.5 million per year in salaries alone. This reporting was based primarily on emails sent by a Madigan aide.
Published today for the first time, new emails obtained via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request show how Madigan’s right-hand man, Michael McClain, worked with the highest levels of the Pritzker administration: from lobbying for patronage job placements to offering condolences for a criminal investigation into Pritzker’s “scheme to defraud” taxpayers.
The emails show:
• McClain lobbying Pritzker for an ally to get a job in the Illinois Department of Natural Resources.
• McClain successfully placing a job candidate on the Prisoner Review Board.
• McClain sending resumes to the office of Deputy Gov. Christian Mitchell, describing one candidate as “‘young’ to the dark side but .. impressive.”
• McClain sending Mitchell’s office a list of “double-exempt” positions. Double-exempt jobs are patronage havens as they are not subject to political hiring restrictions.
• McClain writing to Pritzker spokesperson Jordan Abudayyeh, “I am deeply sorry about the alleged federal investigation,” referring to the criminal investigation into Pritzker’s removing of toilets from his Gold Coast mansion to reduce his property tax burden.
• Senior Pritzker advisor Nikki Budzinski trading compliments with McClain months after news broke that his house was raided as part of the FBI investigation into Madigan.
View the McClain email log here.
Rather than strengthening Illinois’ anti-corruption rules in the wake of the Madigan indictment, Pritzker is weakening them. The governor is fighting in court to fire the federally appointed patronage hiring monitor for his administration.
“Every last Madigan patronage hire should be removed from state service,” Sullivan said.
“But instead of strengthening our watchdogs, our governor is trying to fire them. Taxpayers deserve a thorough investigation into patronage hiring in the Pritzker administration.”
On Tuesday, the Sullivan-Murphy campaign released the 10-point Clean Up Illinois agenda to fight corruption in state government.
Some of this is a stretch, but most of it will make for hot stuff in the fall campaign. It’s quite a hit.
Also, for a guy who regularly told people to never put anything in writing, he sure put a lot of stuff in writing.
Also too, I should note that one of the Madigan “patronage hires” is Jim Edgar.
*** UPDATE *** Natalie Edelstein at the Pritzker campaign…
Try as they may to make this election about Mike Madigan, the facts are clear: The governor passed comprehensive ethics legislation to clean up Springfield and stands ready and willing to work with the General Assembly to do more to restore trust in government. As U.S. Attorney John Lausch said, there are absolutely no allegations of wrongdoing against Governor Pritzker or his staff.
Given Jesse Sullivan’s inability to give a straight answer on questions like whether or not he supports the $15 minimum wage, it is no surprise that he is desperately and falsely attacking the governor in an attempt to break out of a messy, crowded primary.
McClain was hated by top Pritzker staff for doing stuff like this…
Two weeks before Anne Caprara stepped into one of the highest profile political roles of her life, she got a call from Gov. J.B. Pritzker with some uncomfortable news.
Pritzker sounded upset, according to a high-level source close to the governor. He said people were “trashing” Caprara to several others, including reporters, in an attempt to squash her appointment as Pritzker’s chief of staff.
That maneuvering didn’t start after the election, either. McClain tried to force Caprara out of her campaign manager’s job before the 2018 primary and then again after the primary. As that article notes, he wasn’t exactly welcomed into the office.
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