* April 14…
The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) released the results of its 2022-2023 annual Planning Resource Auction (PRA) indicating capacity shortfalls in both the north and central regions of MISO. This encompasses parts of 11 states in the Midwest. MISO remains committed to continue its work with members and state regulators to maintain grid reliability across the entire 15-state MISO footprint.
“We have anticipated challenges due to the changing energy landscape and have communicated our concerns through the Reliability Imperative. We have prepared for and projected resource fleet transformation, but these results underscore that more attention is required to offset the rate of acceleration,” said MISO Chief Executive Officer John Bear. “These results do not undermine our ability to meet the immediate needs of the system, but they do highlight the need for more capacity flexibility to reliably generate and manage uncertainty during this transition.”
The Local Clearing Requirement – capacity required from within each zone – was met for the entire MISO Region, but Zones 1-7 cleared at the Cost of New Entry (CONE).
• Zones 1-7 (parts of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin) all cleared at $236.66/MW-day.
• Zones 8-10 (parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas) cleared at $2.88/MW-day.
Load Serving Entities (LSEs) that entered the MISO auction without enough owned or contracted capacity to cover their requirement (load plus reserves) will pay these prices for the amount of capacity they are ‘short’. The cost impact to consumers of those LSEs with a shortfall will depend on the amount they are short and the LSE’s retail rate arrangement with their state regulator. LSEs that entered the auction with sufficient capacity to cover their requirement will not need to purchase capacity at these prices.
“The reality for the zones that do not have sufficient generation to cover their load plus their required reserves is that they will have increased risk of temporary, controlled outages to maintain system reliability,” said Clair Moeller, MISO’s president and chief operating officer. “From a consumer perspective, those zones may also face higher costs to procure power when it is scarce.”
Emphasis added.
* Steve Daniels last week…
Carmel, Ind.-based Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, the regional power grid overseer for much of the Midwest, including downstate Illinois, warned last week that rolling blackouts are possible this summer because of a shortage of power-generation capacity. […]
Critics of policies phasing out coal and natural gas in favor of renewable power are seeing their doomsday forecasts start to come true far faster than even they thought. The price shock downstate also hands Republicans who didn’t support Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s sprawling, costly Climate & Equitable Jobs Act, or CEJA, last year an issue in the upcoming election.
The statute requires the closure of all fossil fuel power plants in Illinois no later than 2045. Effectively, it’s made the usual method of addressing power-supply shortages—construction of new natural gas-fired plants—uneconomic and significantly reduced the tools available to address the shortage that’s emerged. […]
“Currently, we are confident that our delivery system is stable and reliable and power will be there when it is needed this summer,” spokeswoman Marcelyn Love said in an email. But, she added, “Even hearing MISO’s president suggest the possibility of having to shed load is a serious concern.”
* Richard Irvin campaign last Thursday…
The cost of living in Illinois is again about to get higher for residents thanks to Governor Pritzker’s ComEd bailout bill which passed last year.
In a notice to consumers this week, Ameren Illinois, one of the state’s leading energy providers, warned consumers to expect to see their yearly energy bills rise by as much as $500. In addition to the price hike, consumers may also face rolling brownouts during the hottest days of summer due to a shortage of power-generation capacity driven by Pritzker’s energy law.
J.B. Pritzker pushed a radical total phase-out of fossil fuel power plants with massive spending and facility closures to begin over the next few years. Now, residents in Central and Southern Illinois are going to pay the price for Pritzker’s misplaced priorities with the possibility of no power at all this summer.
The rapid closure of coal-fired power plants in favor of less-reliable renewable energy sources has made the Midwest’s energy grid less resilient. Ameren shared this concern with Pritzker during negotiations for the 2021 energy bill, instead recommending a steadier transition to renewable generation. Industry experts warn that while Central and Southern Illinois customers are most at risk this summer, if a prolonged power shortage occurs it could affect future supplies in the Chicago market.
“J.B. Pritzker ignored countless warnings from lawmakers, businesses, and energy providers themselves; now consumers are living out the worst case scenario,” said Irvin for Illinois Spokesperson Eleni Demertzis. “Pritzker’s radical agenda keeps hurting the people of Illinois. Crime is out of control because of his anti-police, pro-criminal policies. Now struggling families will suffer even more because of his radical energy agenda.”
* From Jordan Abudayyeh in the governor’s office…
The market had already sealed the fate of coal long before the passage of CEJA, with nearly all announced retirements coming in advance of final action. New gas build was not prohibited by CEJA, and the ability of gas plants to stay online until 2045 without reaching zero emissions was a legislative concession to gas-fired investors who insisted they could make the economics work and transition to clean hydrogen in the out years. Some of those projects are in the permitting process currently.
No new gas plant could help with the current MISO projection; the permitting and construction of such a new plant would take many years - the buildout of new renewables, including Illinois’ innovative coal-to-solar program, could have a speedier impact. MISO may also consider accelerating the interconnection cue for new renewables, which would also be faster to market.
–
Background:
• MISO is much bigger than just Illinois. There are coal retirements throughout MISO, and even if CEJA were limiting new gas buildout, CEJA isn’t influencing that in other states.
• Many providers hedge to protect against price fluctuations. Anticipated costs in Michigan a couple of years ago (which were larger than the current MISO projections) didn’t come to fruition for the vast majority of Michigan MISO customers because of hedging
• MISO and SPP could work together to do enhance power flows between their RTOs. That would help in the short term, as well.
* Illinois Environmental Council…
“The irony of dirty, expensive fossil fuel generators and their allies issuing outdated, hyperbolic warnings on the eve of Earth Day borders on the ridiculous. These are the same old talking points we hear from fossil fuel special interests who aren’t honest with the people of Illinois that fossil fuels were already too dirty and expensive to compete. Frankly, it’s a tired playbook that voters and the General Assembly have already rejected.
“Coal plants were retiring before Governor Pritzker and the General Assembly moved proactively to ensure a healthy and prosperous future for Illinoisans when they passed the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act, a comprehensive short- and long-term plan to replace dirty, expensive gas and coal with a cleaner, less expensive, more reliable energy sector that will create thousands of clean energy jobs and save lives.”
The IEC also noted that “all MISO states in the Midwest are seeing the same price impacts”…
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 11:43 am:
Not mentioned by the Republicans: The rising costs of natural disasters and other impacts related to global heating. Ignoring the problem won’t make it go away, and pumping more CO2 into the atmosphere is already having serious economic consequences. If anything, we need to speed up the transition to clean energy sources and become much more efficient in our energy use. Which is worse, a few rolling blackouts or widespread crop failures?
- Blue Dog - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 11:44 am:
I guess we can look at the bright side. Looks like Rivian and Ford are stymied when it comes to enough lithium batteries and the widespread use of EV’s will be delayed decades. BTW. I can’t even get a guesstimate from Ford when my Lightning will be ready.
- Cool Papa Bell - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 11:50 am:
So a few weeks back when I didn’t see any steam coming from the stacks at CWLP I should think that the utility wasn’t producing electricty?
I guess I might start thinking more strongly about adding roof top solar to my house.
- Annonin' - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 11:53 am:
So RichieRich is blaming a phaseout 23 years from now on next month’s electric bill hikes…makes sense to us. Better yet let’s ask RR why ‘Riffie won’t let him go to the Central IL GOP Governors Candidates Night. Was he grounded for being a bad fellow?
- NorthsideNoMore - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 11:56 am:
So this needs to be gotten under control and fast. Wondering if anyone estimated what the real human and economic cost of rolling blackouts is ? Bidding wars for real time generation increases pricing and if manufacturing has to shut down due to lack of consistent generation lost production wages etc.
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 11:57 am:
Funny how the Illinois Environmental Council lumps coal/gas generation together as “dirty”. When according to US Energy Information Administration gas is much cleaner…
When generating electricity, coal emits significantly more CO2 than natural gas. In 2019, coal-fired generation produced 2,257 pounds of CO2 per megawatthour (MWh) of electricity. Natural gas-fired generation produced less than half that amount at 976 pounds of CO2/MWh.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48296
- TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 11:58 am:
ComEd is a noticeable hole in that MISO map.
I’m fairly sure ComEd is still a member of the PJM managed grid. Would that mean ComEd is soon to be selling excess nuke capacity into the MISO managed grid at these highly profitable rates?
There are enough levels of potential irony here to ignite a new sun.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:06 pm:
Not mentioned by anyone - one bitcoin transaction uses more electricity that the average consumer does in an entire month. Crypto is what is going to cause an energy crisis, not any of the nonsense that Republicans/Fossil Fuel cheerleaders say
- vern - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:06 pm:
Hmm, I wonder if anyone proposed a bill this year that would allow some of the biggest grid consumers to make their own carbon-free energy? Oh right, there’s one with bipartisan support that’s opposed by the environmental lobby, including the IEC. So much for a “cleaner, less expensive, more reliable energy sector.”
https://www.ilga.gov/legislation/billstatus.asp?DocNum=5589&GAID=16&GA=102&DocTypeID=HB&LegID=140121&SessionID=110
- SWIL_Voter - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:15 pm:
Can somebody explain why this is happening in states who don’t have a CEJA? And if we’re blaming this on CEJA, what specific plants are closing because of CEJA? What is the connection here? I see lots of bluster and no evidence, which is pretty typical
- SWIL_Voter - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:19 pm:
Vern, how would authorizing more nuclear construction help with this year’s power bills? Folks are really throwing spaghetti at the wall on this one
- thechampaignlife - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:22 pm:
===So RichieRich is blaming a phaseout 23 years from now on next month’s electric bill hikes===
Even better: that far away phaseout just in Illinois is apparently responsible for the entire Midwest possibly running low on power for a bit, maybe.
===The Governor and enviros can cry all they want but they OWN this.===
Explain how this is their fault when this just-passed statute which does not fully take effect for decades has managed to tank the electricity market with the ink still drying in an industry that takes years to add or remove capacity, and it is simultaneously happening in most Midwest states. We will wait.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:27 pm:
The reverse Dutch auction probably benefits coal and other dirty power produces as they tend to have higher production costs. Basically, if there is more demand for power, then the dispatchers have to buy from higher cost power producers. It might not have been the worst idea in the world to keep the nukes around. They are cheap and much less carbon intensive.
- Anotherretiree - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:40 pm:
Renewables need backup. The slowest avg wind speeds of the year are July,Aug,Sept. The months needing a lot of A/C. I wonder if enough coal plants have been shuttered, and wind turbines built, that this will be significant ? The turbines down the road are humming in this windy Spring. Except for last Thursday when it was calm.
- We've never had one before - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:50 pm:
We’re gonna need more nukes, and fusion is still 30 years away.
Wind & Solar: We need cost-effective, non-toxic energy storage to make that feasible. Have you seen the “pumped-storage hydroelectricity” schemes? Nothing but a man-made lake and gravity. and boy, do we know how to do man-made lakes in Illinois!
Solar: If you are covering up arable land, you’re not doing it right. “Green” energy does not mean raping the land. On I-355 in Lockport is a “showcase” solar farm next to a mega-distribution building. The solar farms should be on TOP of these buildings, not ruining more land by sitting besides them.
- Baberaham Lincoln - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:57 pm:
==Explain how this is their fault when this just-passed statute which does not fully take effect for decades has managed to tank the electricity market with the ink still drying in an industry that takes years to add or remove capacity, and it is simultaneously happening in most Midwest states. We will wait.==
Pretty simple actually. The ban on natural gas 23 years into the future means no capital will flow to a new natural gas plant today. What investor would build a plant knowing that state law will essentially make it a stranded asset?
When there has been a capacity shortfall in the past 10 years, natural gas was built to quickly and cheaply to bridge the gap. The law now takes that option off the table. So what’s gonna fill the gap? Renewables? Maybe but youre gonna need a heck of a lot of batteries. Coal? Nope. Nukes? Too expensive.
Perhaps the low hanging fruit MISO should look at is greater interregional transmission connecting with SPP or PJM. Sharing the risk among RTOs is a no-brainer.
- sladay - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 12:59 pm:
HB5589 needs to pass and the enviros need to get off of there anti nuke stance if we want to make any large impacts to global emissions. Europe is changing course on nuclear power due to the war.
July 1 is when the EV vehicle and charging incentives are due to go live.
==I guess I might start thinking more strongly about adding roof top solar to my house.== Rooftop solar will help people hedge against high bills. You can now generate more then 110% since 2017 with rooftop solar.
- Nick - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:07 pm:
The entire world seems to be dealing with energy short falls right now, I suppose I shouldn’t be shocked it eventually would impact the US too in more ways than just gasoline prices.
- TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:09 pm:
== Perhaps the low hanging fruit MISO should look at is greater interregional transmission connecting with SPP or PJM. ==
MISO is simply a self-assembled collection of power producers. There are already interconnects, that’s how power is sold between grids with capacity, and those without. Nothing is stopping any power producer from leaving MISO, and joining PJM. ComEd did exactly that about 15 years ago.
If your goal is to consolidate MISO and PJM, that would then become a completely different organization, with different rules and costs. It may spread the cost around to more people, but the underlying failed decisions and infrastructure of those collective companies still remains.
- Nieva - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:14 pm:
Roof top solar is a great idea I have a 10k system that helps keep my bill to under 50 bucks most months. Rooftop solar will not help during brownouts because most solar systems are connected to the grid and don’t have the ability to function when the grid is down. The only way that works is to have battery backup at a cost of around 10k. Most people with solar are not off-grid for that reason.
- Baberaham Lincoln - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:16 pm:
==MISO is simply a self-assembled collection of power producers. There are already interconnects, that’s how power is sold between grids with capacity, and those without. Nothing is stopping any power producer from leaving MISO, and joining PJM==
PJM has a 30% reserve margin. They are next door to MISO with a near term capacity shortfall. Whats missing is additional transmission capacity and a price to incent PJM generators to export. That MISO auction price might do the trick. But you need more transfer capability.
- SWIL_Voter - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:18 pm:
“ The ban on natural gas 23 years into the future means no capital will flow to a new natural gas plant today. What investor would build a plant knowing that state law will essentially make it a stranded asset?”
According to the quote above, Nat has investors themselves claimed they could make these economics work during the CEJA negotiations. That between now and 2045 they’d be able to get to 2045. Who is lying?
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:30 pm:
“I guess I might start thinking more strongly about adding roof top solar”
roof top solar sounds great - but there are a number of problems notably, if you lease the solar it is technically a type of mortgage with lean against your home. So when you move you either must pay the rest of the lease or hope the new owner will see the value of the extra cost for the solar. Also if you want to refinance your home it makes it much more difficult.
- SWIL_Voter - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:35 pm:
“ billions for renewables because it wasn’t affordable?”
Fossil fuels have been among the most heavily subsidized industries on earth for well over 100 years, and we make no effort to square away their benefit with their health and environmental impacts to truly see how affordable they really are
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:41 pm:
===Fossil fuels have been among the most heavily subsidized industries on earth for well over 100 years===
Yep.
- Amalia - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:48 pm:
and then there’s the threat of Russian interference in power grids. this is a big concern and one for which all power operators have to be ready.
- TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:49 pm:
== Whats missing is additional transmission capacity and a price to incent PJM generators to export. ==
It’s not missing.
PJM and MISO sign agreements every year for capacity exchanges FAR larger in size than this projected regional shortfall.
There is plenty of transmission capacity between organizations. Last I looked(admittedly awhile ago), much of the MISO surplus is already exported to the Eastern interconnect. MISO has no current problems being incentivized to export its existing surplus capacity.
The electric companies in MISO zones 1-7 did not want to pay the asking price to obtain their contractual capacity and reserve requirements, and because of that will have to buy that capacity requirement at the current market rates. Because some of those companies also don’t want to do that, they are instead choosing not to pay for that capacity, because it’s cheaper for them to run rolling blackouts than pay the demand price on those occasions.
The issue here is profitability for private companies being the primary concern, not a lack of transmission capacity.
- TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 1:51 pm:
=== Last I looked(admittedly awhile ago), much of the PJM surplus is already exported to the Eastern interconnect. PJM has no current problems being incentivized to export its existing surplus capacity. ==
PJM, not MISO, is what I meant to say here.
- Roman - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 2:19 pm:
The greens and the governor are completely correct on the facts — long before CEJA, market forces were driving coal plants out of business, creating a supply shortage.
But they might be wrong on the politics. JB owns this issue, both good and bad, thanks to the high profile he assumed during the debate. Your average voter/ratepayer won’t take time to grasp the complexities of the capacity market if their bill shoots up or if their lights go out. They’ll just be looking for someone to blame.
- Joe Schmoe - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 2:49 pm:
Keep the CWLP generators finely tuned…..
- May Soon Be Required - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 3:23 pm:
Governors own the issue. If rolling blackouts occur in the summer of 2022 JB will own the issue.
- Oxfordian - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 3:36 pm:
This problem is much bigger than Illinois, as those prices outside of Zone 4 clearly show. Has anyone checked to see if Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is having rippling effects on energy prices worldwide? /s
- thechampaignlife - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 3:44 pm:
===When there has been a capacity shortfall in the past 10 years, natural gas was built to quickly and cheaply to bridge the gap.===
Define quickly. No new NG plants are popping up without years of planning, permitting, and investments. Mothballed ones spun up, yes, but entirely new capacity, no. So, again, how does a brand new law cause the current blackout forecast? And how does a single state impact the entire Midwest region so quickly?
- TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 4:18 pm:
== If rolling blackouts occur in the summer of 2022 JB will own the issue. ==
The majority of the population of Illinois is not effected by this. The entire Chicagoland region isn’t included, as well as most of the rest of the state north of I-80.
This is a central and southern Illinois problem.
- JS Mill - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 6:30 pm:
I am shocked, just shocked, that an energy business would use these scare tactics to ask for more money (which is what they are really doing).
As stated earlier, the fossil fuel industry is only second to Ag as the most subsidized business in the world. (Those Koch boys really want you to think they are capitalists).
Keep buying their doomsday, sky is falling nonsense. Those that do are the REAL reason why energy costs are so high.
- Blue Dog - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 8:39 pm:
just learned more about the Ford lightning on MSNBC than I got out of local dealer.
- joe - Monday, Apr 25, 22 @ 11:39 pm:
JS - You say: “As stated earlier, the fossil fuel industry is only second to Ag as the most subsidized business in the world.” Maybe I am looking in the wrong place, but I have looked and can not find any. Will you please point me to several of these Fossil Plant subsidies now in the USA?