Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » Quickie internal tracking poll shows Irvin with big lead, Bailey falling fast, undecideds still in “first”
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Quickie internal tracking poll shows Irvin with big lead, Bailey falling fast, undecideds still in “first”

Wednesday, Apr 27, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Just so we’re clear, somebody other than the pollster and the client leaked me this internal tracking poll today. I’m not sure how this person obtained it, and I didn’t ask. We’ll get to the strong caveats in a moment…

The first takeaway is that spending lots of money works, particularly if it’s spent well, as the Irvin campaign is doing.

Just keep in mind that these were automated landline polls done on the cheap and for internal use only. No mobile phones. No text or online contacts.

The polls were not meant for public consumption, but since I had the results, Cor Strategies and its client decided to confirm their existence.

* Details from the pollster…

Universe: Likely Republican Primary Voters
Field Dates: Monday, April 18 - Thursday, April 21
Method: IVR (automated)
Responses: 536
MoE: ±4.23%



  1. - Publius - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    That Unsure person is still doing quite well. I still have a feeling that if Irvin gets the nod a lot of Republicans will sit it out in the fall. It seems that Irvin’s status as a Democrat until recently won’t help.

  2. - TNR - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:34 pm:

    A little surprised at the lack of movement from Sullivan given the amount of spending he’s done.

  3. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:39 pm:

    Not a surprise. Irvin has a ton of Griff money to get his message out.

    Bailey is his own worst enemy.

  4. - DougChicago - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:40 pm:

    Sullivan’s message is insipid — a man of faith called to serve? Called to serve what to whom? And then again who are you other than some guy from Central Illinois?

    Bailey and Irvin at least have something to say. They are not exactly having a Lincoln-Douglas debate but they have something that look like positions on a couple issues.

  5. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:40 pm:

    Irvin’s exposure in media is moving a needle far more than taking real “votes” away from Bailey…

    … further… Bailey will continue to drop as more candidates get known outside the Bailey Tent Revivals, hosting by Facebook.

    I’m still guessing ~ 34-39% wins this thing, someone gets to 40% they’re likely a lock to be the nominee, but 60% might not be happy.

    Appreciate you dropping this, Rich.

    It’s fascinating to money and name ID… but doing it “smartly”

  6. - fs - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:41 pm:

    The “conservative purity” test


    “He might not be perfect, but he’s the best chance to win and the candidate Pritzker is most worried about.”

    When every candidate in a crowded field makes the first argument against you, and doesn’t have a ton of money or organization to stand out amongst that crowd, the latter argument gets stronger and begins to take hold.

  7. - Captain Obvious - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:42 pm:

    Not sure that no matter which of these candidates prevails in the primary that Republicans will sit on the sidelines in the fall. I can’t work up much enthusiasm for any of them. Which is sad given that the incumbent has done a poor job and is vulnerable on many issues. However, the momentum on the national level may carry the day for Republican turnout, even here in the land of the deep blue. Democrats disdain for parents, consumers, and our physical safety may be the motivation needed to get out the Republican vote.

  8. - Huh? - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:44 pm:

    Here they come, spinning out of the turn! Unsure/no opinion is in the lead. Coming on strong, Irwin is back a length. The favorite, Bailey is trailing by two lengths and fading fast. The rest of the field stumbled out of the gate and are too far back to be considered in the running.

  9. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:46 pm:

    ==The “conservative purity” test


    “He might not be perfect, but he’s the best chance to win and the candidate Pritzker is most worried about.”==

    The problem is, none of them are actually very pure, and none of them really have a great chance of beating Pritzker.

    To the poll: believable results that match some of my priors, but those caveats are for real, so it’s not like I’m gonna put any money on this yet.

  10. - Steve Rogers - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:47 pm:

    I’m not at all surprised at the lack of movement from Sullivan given he opens his mouth and speaks.

  11. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:47 pm:

    The above poll is why Darren Bailey is in Florida tonight. He is one endorsement away from turning those numbers around.

    Will he get it, and will it be in time to matter?

  12. - Been There - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:49 pm:

    My take is Irwin is winning the retired person vote. Who else still has landlines? But that is the group you want because they tend to show up and vote.

  13. - HowBoutDat - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:53 pm:

    worth noting: Undecideds only dropped 6%. Which means the 20 point jump for Irvin means that voters are BAILing on Bailey(& others)

  14. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    Solomon & Fields, which sounds a little like a high-end deli, doubled their support over the past month. At this rate, they should be neck and neck with Irvin/Bourne before mid-June.

  15. - Whatthewhat - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:58 pm:

    So, after spending zero money over the last two quarters on media, Cor Strategies advised their client to do a tracking poll. Brilliant.

  16. - NIU Grad - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:58 pm:

    I was really expecting more from Rabine due to his money and “Discount Bruce Rauner” businessman vibes…I guess he’s just not finding a foothold.

  17. - Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:02 pm:

    Irvin has money to spend and does it effectively. Bailey funnels his money to the other blockheads. Bailey isn’t really running for governor, he just wants your money. Had he actually had a real campaign, he would be the favorite.

  18. - Real - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:02 pm:

    The only people I know that have a landline is my grandmother and maybe some others in her age bracket. This poll would only reflect that. These firms need to update poll methods.

  19. - vern - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:11 pm:

    Assuming these numbers are roughly accurate, Bailey has a lot of work to do. I was bullish on him early in the campaign, but he hasn’t been effective on offense or defense against Irvin. His messaging has been unfocused and difficult for voters to digest. 15 minute videos speaking vaguely about attacks on him aren’t gonna cut it. Campaigns are mostly about saying the same few things every day, and Bailey hasn’t shown that kind of message discipline.

    If Bailey can’t hold himself above 20%, he’s gonna need a Trump endorsement, at least 10x Uihlein’s current commitment, and probably some kind of Jesse Sullivan boomlet to pull this off.

  20. - illini - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:13 pm:

    We understand that Bailey is at Mar-A-Lago right now meeting with all of the Mary Miller supporters and her chief benefactor. Maybe, if the Donald can be persuaded, his endorsement will move some of these numbers.

  21. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:14 pm:

    ==The only people I know that have a landline is my grandmother and maybe some others in her age bracket. ==

    Good polling firms try to account for this now…although good polling firms rarely do landline only polls anymore in the first place.

  22. - Pundent - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:17 pm:

    Bailey’s campaign will probably hope for a Hail Mary endorsement from the former President and try to squeeze a few more points out of that. But it would seem that they have a pretty low ceiling. And the rest of the Irvin opposition seems DOA. So while the poll is flawed, it may not be all that off on where things stand - today.

  23. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:27 pm:

    “All the Mary Miller supporters”. I hope the five of them have a great time!

  24. - The Real Captain - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:28 pm:

    539 contacts for a statewide poll is really very shallow. Probably because of the method but still just that number makes it highly questionable.

  25. - MoralMinority - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:30 pm:

    Darren better hope the Donald doesn’t see those poll numbers. After all, he is pretty careful to avoid making picks that might lose. Claiming credit for a candidate’s win because of the power of his endorsement is a lot easier for Trump if the candidate endorsed is likely to win anyway.

  26. - fs - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:32 pm:

    == 539 contacts for a statewide poll is really very shallow. ==

    If it’s a campaign tracking poll, that doesn’t seem like an unusual or small size.

  27. - Southern - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:33 pm:

    I’m constantly seeing the DGA’s commercial about Irvin’s “real record on crime.” I’m surprised it hasn’t been more effective, if crime is such a big campaign issue. Maybe it’s time for DGA to try a different approach?

  28. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:35 pm:

    ===After all, he is pretty careful to avoid making picks that might lose.===

    Meh. Trump wants loyalty first, and to claim his endorsements make a difference.

    They are rarely judicious.

  29. - MoralMinority - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:46 pm:

    I guess Trump did endorse Mary, though. I’m not at all sure she can beat Davis, but I’m just glad she won’t be my Representative any longer. Probably Trump felt she would bring more well-to-do downstate farmers to Mar-A-Lago to spend their money at her fundraiser. But if things start to look bad for her closer to the primary then look for an unendorsement. Can’t have that record blemished.

  30. - Lakefront - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:49 pm:

    Interesting results. If accurate (enough) Irvin is pulling ahead quicker than anticipated.

    For those in the comments talking about a Trump endorsement “saving” Bailey - I don’t see it. This isn’t 2018. What Trump voter in the Illinois primary that realllly cares about his endorsement hasn’t already put their chips down. He’s not getting a rally out of it. He’d net a 5% gain tops.

  31. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:58 pm:

    ===Can’t have that record blemished.===

    Trump has endorsed and the candidate lost.

    Use the Google Key.

    To the post,

    As “Undecided” went from 44 to 38… and Irvin “surged”… is that an indication that those paying attention *are* being swayed and they ain’t part of The Cult?

    Where are the Cultists? The now 38%?

  32. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:58 pm:

    It’s Griffin’s money and the Rauner record that are frightening, not so much Irvin, who’s about as phony as they come. Pritzker is no slouch financially and should be able to handle this, also with everyone who will endorse and support him.

  33. - Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:10 pm:

    I’m sure Proft can turn things around for Bailey.

  34. - Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:11 pm:

    ===spending lots of money works…==
    well, duhh

  35. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:19 pm:

    ===well, duhh===

    “…particularly if it’s well spent,” is the key part of that message. See Sullivan’s numbers above.

  36. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:21 pm:

    ===Sullivan’s numbers===

    Here I thought it would be Sullivan grifting for cryptocurrency, it’s the media folks making bank with that sweet California Cash?

  37. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:46 pm:

    Bailey is learning why you cannot allow negative attacks to go unanswered.


  38. - here we go - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 5:20 pm:

    Irvin’s to lose, it would appear.

  39. - DougChicago - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 9:12 pm:

    I’m sure Dan Proft can turn this around for Dan Proft

  40. - Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 10:41 pm:

    I wonder how much of Irvin’s game is just reflecting an increase in name recognition. Bailey presumably began the year with the best name recognition based on 2 years worth of shenanigans while Irvin was an unknown. It may be that the DGAs attack ads backfired a bit by helping get Irvin’s name out.

  41. - Candy Dogood - Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 12:58 am:

    No Opinion sounds like a candidate who is well prepared for their role as the Lt. Governor.

  42. - Elliott Ness - Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 5:42 am:

    This seems to coincide with the endorsement of Ives and the support of the “Proft machine”. Beware of the juggernaut that is Ives and Proft, they are so influential (in a bad way). Good job Danny and Jeannie your support of the Bailey (lacking Barnum) is working and he is sinking like a rock.

  43. - Anonymous - Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 7:41 am:

    It’s 2022 and Rich is still reporting on automated land line polls.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Pritzker says state will work to protect preventative services after Texas federal judge issues ruling striking them down
* Afternoon roundup
* TikTok influencer persuades hundreds to settle down in Peoria
* *** UPDATED x1 *** That toddlin' town roundup
* Birds-eye view of the Capitol Complex construction project
* Keep Uber Affordable. Stop Lawsuit Abuse. Oppose HB 2231
* ComEd 4 trial coverage roundup
* DPI defends decision to target three Champaign County school board candidates
* It’s just a bill
* Hold Uber Accountable. Support HB 2231.
* *** UPDATED x7 - Mystery solved *** The adventure continues
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* *** ComEd 4 trial live coverage ***
* Live coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...






Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller