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Quickie internal tracking poll shows Irvin with big lead, Bailey falling fast, undecideds still in “first”

Wednesday, Apr 27, 2022

* Just so we’re clear, somebody other than the pollster and the client leaked me this internal tracking poll today. I’m not sure how this person obtained it, and I didn’t ask. We’ll get to the strong caveats in a moment…

The first takeaway is that spending lots of money works, particularly if it’s spent well, as the Irvin campaign is doing.

Just keep in mind that these were automated landline polls done on the cheap and for internal use only. No mobile phones. No text or online contacts.

The polls were not meant for public consumption, but since I had the results, Cor Strategies and its client decided to confirm their existence.

* Details from the pollster…

Universe: Likely Republican Primary Voters
Field Dates: Monday, April 18 - Thursday, April 21
Method: IVR (automated)
Responses: 536
MoE: ±4.23%

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

43 Comments
  1. - Publius - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    That Unsure person is still doing quite well. I still have a feeling that if Irvin gets the nod a lot of Republicans will sit it out in the fall. It seems that Irvin’s status as a Democrat until recently won’t help.


  2. - TNR - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:34 pm:

    A little surprised at the lack of movement from Sullivan given the amount of spending he’s done.


  3. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:39 pm:

    Not a surprise. Irvin has a ton of Griff money to get his message out.

    Bailey is his own worst enemy.


  4. - DougChicago - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:40 pm:

    Sullivan’s message is insipid — a man of faith called to serve? Called to serve what to whom? And then again who are you other than some guy from Central Illinois?

    Bailey and Irvin at least have something to say. They are not exactly having a Lincoln-Douglas debate but they have something that look like positions on a couple issues.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:40 pm:

    Irvin’s exposure in media is moving a needle far more than taking real “votes” away from Bailey…

    … further… Bailey will continue to drop as more candidates get known outside the Bailey Tent Revivals, hosting by Facebook.

    I’m still guessing ~ 34-39% wins this thing, someone gets to 40% they’re likely a lock to be the nominee, but 60% might not be happy.

    Appreciate you dropping this, Rich.

    It’s fascinating to money and name ID… but doing it “smartly”


  6. - fs - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:41 pm:

    The “conservative purity” test

    vs

    “He might not be perfect, but he’s the best chance to win and the candidate Pritzker is most worried about.”

    When every candidate in a crowded field makes the first argument against you, and doesn’t have a ton of money or organization to stand out amongst that crowd, the latter argument gets stronger and begins to take hold.


  7. - Captain Obvious - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:42 pm:

    Not sure that no matter which of these candidates prevails in the primary that Republicans will sit on the sidelines in the fall. I can’t work up much enthusiasm for any of them. Which is sad given that the incumbent has done a poor job and is vulnerable on many issues. However, the momentum on the national level may carry the day for Republican turnout, even here in the land of the deep blue. Democrats disdain for parents, consumers, and our physical safety may be the motivation needed to get out the Republican vote.


  8. - Huh? - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:44 pm:

    Here they come, spinning out of the turn! Unsure/no opinion is in the lead. Coming on strong, Irwin is back a length. The favorite, Bailey is trailing by two lengths and fading fast. The rest of the field stumbled out of the gate and are too far back to be considered in the running.


  9. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:46 pm:

    ==The “conservative purity” test

    vs

    “He might not be perfect, but he’s the best chance to win and the candidate Pritzker is most worried about.”==

    The problem is, none of them are actually very pure, and none of them really have a great chance of beating Pritzker.

    To the poll: believable results that match some of my priors, but those caveats are for real, so it’s not like I’m gonna put any money on this yet.


  10. - Steve Rogers - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:47 pm:

    I’m not at all surprised at the lack of movement from Sullivan given he opens his mouth and speaks.


  11. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:47 pm:

    The above poll is why Darren Bailey is in Florida tonight. He is one endorsement away from turning those numbers around.

    Will he get it, and will it be in time to matter?


  12. - Been There - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:49 pm:

    My take is Irwin is winning the retired person vote. Who else still has landlines? But that is the group you want because they tend to show up and vote.


  13. - HowBoutDat - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:53 pm:

    worth noting: Undecideds only dropped 6%. Which means the 20 point jump for Irvin means that voters are BAILing on Bailey(& others)


  14. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    Solomon & Fields, which sounds a little like a high-end deli, doubled their support over the past month. At this rate, they should be neck and neck with Irvin/Bourne before mid-June.


  15. - Whatthewhat - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:58 pm:

    So, after spending zero money over the last two quarters on media, Cor Strategies advised their client to do a tracking poll. Brilliant.


  16. - NIU Grad - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 2:58 pm:

    I was really expecting more from Rabine due to his money and “Discount Bruce Rauner” businessman vibes…I guess he’s just not finding a foothold.


  17. - Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:02 pm:

    Irvin has money to spend and does it effectively. Bailey funnels his money to the other blockheads. Bailey isn’t really running for governor, he just wants your money. Had he actually had a real campaign, he would be the favorite.


  18. - Real - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:02 pm:

    The only people I know that have a landline is my grandmother and maybe some others in her age bracket. This poll would only reflect that. These firms need to update poll methods.


  19. - vern - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:11 pm:

    Assuming these numbers are roughly accurate, Bailey has a lot of work to do. I was bullish on him early in the campaign, but he hasn’t been effective on offense or defense against Irvin. His messaging has been unfocused and difficult for voters to digest. 15 minute videos speaking vaguely about attacks on him aren’t gonna cut it. Campaigns are mostly about saying the same few things every day, and Bailey hasn’t shown that kind of message discipline.

    If Bailey can’t hold himself above 20%, he’s gonna need a Trump endorsement, at least 10x Uihlein’s current commitment, and probably some kind of Jesse Sullivan boomlet to pull this off.


  20. - illini - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:13 pm:

    We understand that Bailey is at Mar-A-Lago right now meeting with all of the Mary Miller supporters and her chief benefactor. Maybe, if the Donald can be persuaded, his endorsement will move some of these numbers.


  21. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:14 pm:

    ==The only people I know that have a landline is my grandmother and maybe some others in her age bracket. ==

    Good polling firms try to account for this now…although good polling firms rarely do landline only polls anymore in the first place.


  22. - Pundent - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:17 pm:

    Bailey’s campaign will probably hope for a Hail Mary endorsement from the former President and try to squeeze a few more points out of that. But it would seem that they have a pretty low ceiling. And the rest of the Irvin opposition seems DOA. So while the poll is flawed, it may not be all that off on where things stand - today.


  23. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:27 pm:

    “All the Mary Miller supporters”. I hope the five of them have a great time!


  24. - The Real Captain - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:28 pm:

    539 contacts for a statewide poll is really very shallow. Probably because of the method but still just that number makes it highly questionable.


  25. - MoralMinority - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:30 pm:

    Darren better hope the Donald doesn’t see those poll numbers. After all, he is pretty careful to avoid making picks that might lose. Claiming credit for a candidate’s win because of the power of his endorsement is a lot easier for Trump if the candidate endorsed is likely to win anyway.


  26. - fs - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:32 pm:

    == 539 contacts for a statewide poll is really very shallow. ==

    If it’s a campaign tracking poll, that doesn’t seem like an unusual or small size.


  27. - Southern - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:33 pm:

    I’m constantly seeing the DGA’s commercial about Irvin’s “real record on crime.” I’m surprised it hasn’t been more effective, if crime is such a big campaign issue. Maybe it’s time for DGA to try a different approach?


  28. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:35 pm:

    ===After all, he is pretty careful to avoid making picks that might lose.===

    Meh. Trump wants loyalty first, and to claim his endorsements make a difference.

    They are rarely judicious.


  29. - MoralMinority - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:46 pm:

    I guess Trump did endorse Mary, though. I’m not at all sure she can beat Davis, but I’m just glad she won’t be my Representative any longer. Probably Trump felt she would bring more well-to-do downstate farmers to Mar-A-Lago to spend their money at her fundraiser. But if things start to look bad for her closer to the primary then look for an unendorsement. Can’t have that record blemished.


  30. - Lakefront - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:49 pm:

    Interesting results. If accurate (enough) Irvin is pulling ahead quicker than anticipated.

    For those in the comments talking about a Trump endorsement “saving” Bailey - I don’t see it. This isn’t 2018. What Trump voter in the Illinois primary that realllly cares about his endorsement hasn’t already put their chips down. He’s not getting a rally out of it. He’d net a 5% gain tops.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:58 pm:

    ===Can’t have that record blemished.===

    Trump has endorsed and the candidate lost.

    Use the Google Key.

    To the post,

    As “Undecided” went from 44 to 38… and Irvin “surged”… is that an indication that those paying attention *are* being swayed and they ain’t part of The Cult?

    Where are the Cultists? The now 38%?


  32. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 3:58 pm:

    It’s Griffin’s money and the Rauner record that are frightening, not so much Irvin, who’s about as phony as they come. Pritzker is no slouch financially and should be able to handle this, also with everyone who will endorse and support him.


  33. - Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:10 pm:

    I’m sure Proft can turn things around for Bailey.


  34. - Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:11 pm:

    ===spending lots of money works…==
    well, duhh


  35. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:19 pm:

    ===well, duhh===

    “…particularly if it’s well spent,” is the key part of that message. See Sullivan’s numbers above.


  36. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:21 pm:

    ===Sullivan’s numbers===

    Here I thought it would be Sullivan grifting for cryptocurrency, it’s the media folks making bank with that sweet California Cash?


  37. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 4:46 pm:

    Bailey is learning why you cannot allow negative attacks to go unanswered.

    C.R.E.A.M.


  38. - here we go - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 5:20 pm:

    Irvin’s to lose, it would appear.


  39. - DougChicago - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 9:12 pm:

    I’m sure Dan Proft can turn this around for Dan Proft


  40. - Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Apr 27, 22 @ 10:41 pm:

    I wonder how much of Irvin’s game is just reflecting an increase in name recognition. Bailey presumably began the year with the best name recognition based on 2 years worth of shenanigans while Irvin was an unknown. It may be that the DGAs attack ads backfired a bit by helping get Irvin’s name out.


  41. - Candy Dogood - Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 12:58 am:

    No Opinion sounds like a candidate who is well prepared for their role as the Lt. Governor.


  42. - Elliott Ness - Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 5:42 am:

    This seems to coincide with the endorsement of Ives and the support of the “Proft machine”. Beware of the juggernaut that is Ives and Proft, they are so influential (in a bad way). Good job Danny and Jeannie your support of the Bailey (lacking Barnum) is working and he is sinking like a rock.


  43. - Anonymous - Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 7:41 am:

    It’s 2022 and Rich is still reporting on automated land line polls.


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