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Irvin campaign releases own poll showing it leads Bailey 31-25, with 22 percent undecided

Thursday, May 26, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Richard Irvin campaign…

Despite being outspent by over $5 million, with $4 million coming from the Democratic Governors Association in the last two weeks alone, a new poll shows Richard Irvin pulling ahead as a terrified J.B. Pritzker now personally involves himself in the GOP Primary.

“This poll confirms what Pritzker knows to be reality, that he will be defeated by Richard Irvin this November,” said Irvin for Illinois spokesperson Eleni Demertzis. “Pritzker’s attempt to hijack the Republican primary has been an utter failure, just like his tenure as governor of Illinois.”

According to a poll from Irvin Pollster, 1892, Irvin now leads the GOP primary field by 6 points despite being outspent 2 to 1.

The Irvin campaign team is usually very tight-lipped about their own polling.

* Text version of polling memo

To: Interested Parties
From: Irvin for Illinois
Date: May 26, 2022
Re: Illinois Governor Primary Poll

Methodology
1892 polling conducted a poll for the 2022 Illinois Gubernatorial Republican primary election on May 24th-25th. The poll was taken of N=700 likely voters. Respondents were contacted via a combination of cell phones and landlines, and the margin-of-error is ±3.7 percent.

Key Findings
Despite being outspent by millions, Irvin continues to lead the field: Illinois’ governor’s race has become the battleground location for the most expensive primary election in state history. The spend is being driven by a historic alliance between JB Pritzker and the Democrats along with some factions of the Republican Party to try and defeat Richard Irvin.

    Irvin 31%
    Bailey 25%
    Sullivan 11%
    Rabine 8%
    Schimpf 2%
    Soloman 1%
    Undecided 22%

Pritzker is attempting to hijack the primary election: JB Pritzker knows that Richard Irvin is a threat to his corrupt political system. In the month of May, Irvin’s campaign has been outspent by over $5 million. The Democratic Governors Association (DGA), alone, has spent over $4 million in the last 2 weeks.

Spending 4 May - 24 May

    Irvin Spending $10,695,994
    Democrat/Bailey Spending $16,024,787

    Bailey Outside Group $2,723,917
    Bailey Campaign $3,756,501
    Pritzker/DGA $9,544,369

About 1892
1892 has polled in every corner of the country, at every level of politics – from races for President, Governor, Senate, and Congress. Past clients include the Republican Governors Association, National Republican Senatorial Committee, and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

       

51 Comments
  1. - Darren (no not him) - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:36 pm:

    I think that Irvins biggest opponent is time. Had the election been in March (as it has traditionally been), he might have more easily been able to hunker down and avoid debates and deep discussions with reporters. But as time passes, more folks are pressing him for specific answers he hasn’t wanted to give. And that prompts more media reports that he’s not answering simple questions directly. We’ll see what happens but my money is on Irvin.


  2. - PoliSci for Life - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:36 pm:

    The geniuses over at the Irvin campaign thought it would be a good idea to put out a poll showing you only leading by 6 points after spending $11 million with the most engaged and financed part of the primary ahead? Wow.


  3. - Roadrager - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:37 pm:

    “Outspent 2 to 1″ - oh, that’s the hearty chuckle I needed this afternoon.

    Ken Griffin is spending $7.5 million per percentage point of a lead against a primary opponent outwardly campaigning against the area with the largest number of voters in the state. He better pray that ratio holds.


  4. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:40 pm:

    Not much different than the other poll, in terms of closeness. Many undecideds. If Sullivan/others drop out and back Bailey, that could be real interesting. Irvin could win by the others splitting the Bailey vote. Oz would have crushed his opponent in PA if not for the other Trumpy candidate. Now he’s barely hanging on, if not losing.


  5. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:40 pm:

    -The geniuses over at the Irvin campaign thought it would be a good idea to put out a poll showing you only leading by 6 points after spending $11 million with the most engaged and financed part of the primary ahead? Wow.-

    Yeah. They put this out and their candidate seems to be running a silent strategy like he is way ahead… don’t commit, don’t engage, etc. Those things don’t square up.

    Won’t someone take pity on this plucky, underfunded underdog? /s


  6. - Immigrants Welcome - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:40 pm:

    Richard Irvin whining about being outspent is the chef’s kiss of the week.


  7. - Real - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:40 pm:

    Weak attempt to change the narrative from the previous poll which reflects Irving performing badly despite outspending all his republican frontrunners.


  8. - fs - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:42 pm:

    These numbers and margin have been fairly consistent within the mOe for a while now, which makes Bailey’s apparent decision to skip next week’s debate seem even more mind-boggling. Clock is ticking, you’re not gaining ground, votes are already being cast, and you’re not going to not get in front of the camera?


  9. - Cal Umet - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:43 pm:

    There has to be another poll they’re aware of on the way showing it a tighter race.


  10. - Henry Francis - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:43 pm:

    Bailey should cut a deal with Sullivan to get him to drop out of the race and shepherd his flock over to Bailey’s pasture.


  11. - Steve Polite - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:43 pm:

    “This poll confirms what Pritzker knows to be reality, that he will be defeated by Richard Irvin this November,”

    So according to the Irvin campaign, a poll of likely Republican Primary voters showing Irvin 6 points ahead of other “Republican” primary candidates with 22% undecided is proof of Pritzker’s defeat in November. That’s a huge leap of logic.


  12. - Donnie Elgin - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:43 pm:

    “put out a poll showing you only leading by 6 points”

    A leads a lead and the poll was solid using likely voters and cell/landline. In 2018 Ives lost by 3.06%


  13. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:45 pm:

    “There has to be another poll they’re aware of on the way showing it a tighter race.”

    That would be my assumption. Because I look at that poll and say to myself, “I wouldn’t release this.”


  14. - Vader - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:47 pm:

    “JB Pritzker knows that Richard Irvin is a threat to his corrupt political system.”

    So tired of Irvin and his Rauner playbook. Can he even remotely point to one corrupt thing he thinks JB has done? Other than being a democrat?

    I have not seen him offer one single policy suggestion to address any of his claims. He’s going to cut waste - how? Cut taxes - how?

    Rauner got elected by calling every democrat corrupt and promising a lot of things he had no chance to deliver without working across the aisle. Look how well that turned out.


  15. - JS Mill - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:49 pm:

    =Richard Irvin pulling ahead as a terrified J.B. Pritzker=

    As per plan, every accusation is and confession.

    The only one that seems to be scared is Irvin.

    That the party that invested dirty tricks is crying about the DGA is pretty rich irony considering the gop does this with frequency.


  16. - H-W - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:50 pm:

    Technically again, the Bailey v. Irvin results are within the statistical margin of error, indicating that the two are actually tied. I am not sure if the pollsters are sloppy or not, or if the candidates simply refuse to report the truth, but statisticians know that when a difference is less that the margin of error (in this case, 3.7 + 3.7 = 7.4% margin of error range), it is wrong to assert that any difference exists. Alternatively, because the two candidates differ by less margin that the margin of error, it would make good and rational sense to believe the race could be swayed to end up with either candidate winning.


  17. - Rich Miller - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:55 pm:

    ===are actually tied===

    No.


  18. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:55 pm:

    Believable numbers, but I understand if anyone wants to question why Irvin is releasing these now…

    …and y’know what, for the guy who’s running on electability, the lack of head-to-head numbers against Pritzker is noticeable.


  19. - macombward bound - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:58 pm:

    ===So tired of Irvin and his Rauner playbook.===

    Former Rauner campaign strategist (during the signing of HB40 and primary election against Ives) Mark Harris is advising Bailey AND Irvin at the same time? I hadn’t heard about that.


  20. - Steve Polite - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:59 pm:

    It would be nice if political campaigning were more like Pro sports. Commonly, two teams getting ready to face each other during pregame interviews compliment the other team and the skill players on the team. Each team’s focus is always what positive steps or actions they will take to defeat the other team.

    I can dream can’t I?


  21. - macombward bound - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:00 pm:

    ===in the statistical margin of error, indicating that the two are actually tied.===

    A comment within the margin of error of complete idiocy.


  22. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:00 pm:

    ==In 2018 Ives lost by 3.06% ==

    Put another way, though, Rauner got 51.5% of the vote, while Irvin is struggling to stay over 30%.

    And Rauner’s 51.5% presaged a…difficult election for him.


  23. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:01 pm:

    ==Former Rauner campaign strategist (during the signing of HB40 and primary election against Ives) Mark Harris is advising Bailey AND Irvin at the same time? I hadn’t heard about that. ==

    Had you heard that multiple people worked for Bruce Rauner?


  24. - B Team - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:02 pm:

    Numbers haven’t changed much over the past few weeks. Baileys biggest problem is Sullivan. Sully is taking some of that support Bailey needs to pull off a win in June. Bailey should start tearing into Sully, because Bailey has a ceiling of support that he can’t break through.


  25. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:04 pm:

    Another thing is poll says to me, and there’s nothing that can be done about it, but FPTP is just a disaster. The Republican nominee is gonna be lucky if he gets 1/3rd of the vote.


  26. - TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:16 pm:

    Undecided needs to ramp up their campaign. Maybe do some more social media ad buys in critical demographics. Just a few short weeks ago undecided was running away with this primary, which is a shame because it’s really the best option out of all of them.


  27. - Dance Band on the Titanic - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:19 pm:

    “This poll confirms what Pritzker knows to be reality, that he will be defeated by Richard Irvin this November,”

    Wow. If Irvin’s team truly believes that they will beat Pritzker because they’re drawing 31% of the skeletal remains of the ILGOP electorate, then no amount of Griffin’s money will be enough to fix that level of naivety.


  28. - cermak_rd - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:28 pm:

    “The geniuses over at the Irvin campaign thought it would be a good idea to put out a poll showing you only leading by 6 points after spending $11 million with the most engaged and financed part of the primary ahead? Wow. ”

    A lead is better than a deficit, especially the later you get into the primary season. And no one grades on a curve of oh, you paid $19 per vote you only get .8 points for each one, then.

    I have seen no indication that Bailey actually wants to extend his votership beyond what he has now. That gives him a low ceiling and makes him a disaster in November.


  29. - Nick - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:28 pm:

    Weeks to go and ads are just starting about his text messages.

    Good luck Richard.


  30. - Pundent - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    =Bailey should start tearing into Sully, because Bailey has a ceiling of support that he can’t break through.=

    That’s been my observation for some time. To the extent that Bailey can break through his ceiling, he’ll likely do so by picking off Sullivan and to a lesser extent Rabine voters. All three campaigns seem similar which serves to benefit Irvin. It’s also the reason why a potential Trump endorsement could loom large given the large percentage of undecided primary voters.


  31. - macombward bound - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:35 pm:

    ===Had you heard that multiple people worked for Bruce Rauner?===

    Not during the Ives primary or HB40. Do you recall Rauner changing his entire team just beforehand? Which team won in 2014 and which team almost lost to Ives? Who has who now? Who was advising Rauner on HB40 at the time? I’ll give you three guesses, the first two don’t count.

    ===Put another way, though, Rauner got 51.5% of the vote, while Irvin is struggling to stay over 30%.===

    Care to guess what percentage Donald Trump got to win the South Carolina GOP primary in 2016? Too bad he was doomed to lose the general. Oh, nevermind.

    I mean really, get a grip people. Irvin is doing surprisingly well despite your best efforts to claim otherwise. I know that frustrates you all to death. But there’s a reason JB just decided to just go all in himself.


  32. - New Day - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:45 pm:

    Surprising that they’re releasing this poll. Given the likely enthusiasm difference between Bailey’s committed crazies and Irvin’s meh moderates, I’d say Irvin needs to be leading on election day by at least 6, especially with so many undecided.


  33. - Anonymous - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:50 pm:

    So, it comes down to this. Are we going to vote for a true Republican Conservative, or someone dressed up in their Sunday conservative best?


  34. - phocion - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:51 pm:

    ==That the party that invested dirty tricks is crying about the DGA is pretty rich irony considering the gop does this with frequency.==

    Cite examples.


  35. - Rich Miller - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:53 pm:

    ===Cite examples===

    Rauner focused negative ads on Pritzker before the 2018 primary.


  36. - Roadrager - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:55 pm:

    ==Care to guess what percentage Donald Trump got to win the South Carolina GOP primary in 2016? Too bad he was doomed to lose the general. Oh, nevermind.==

    I believe Richard Irvin has what it takes to win the governor’s race by capturing the electoral vote despite losing the popular one.


  37. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    ==Not during the Ives primary or HB40.==

    I mean…yes, even then, more than one person worked for him. But regardless, the “Rauner playbook” that the OP was talking about doesn’t really refer to signing HB40.

    ==Care to guess what percentage Donald Trump got to win the South Carolina GOP primary in 2016?==

    I do not, because, South Carolina is not Illinois, President is not Governor, and I am not so desperate to spin for my candidate that I need sob that different things are actually the same.

    ==Too bad he was doomed to lose the general.==

    You let me know when IL has an electoral college, OK? “Nevermind” indeed.

    ==Irvin is doing surprisingly well despite your best efforts to claim otherwise.==

    His own polls show that he can’t get 1/3 of his party to vote for him. If that’s “surprisingly well”, what were your expectations, that he’d be forcibly removed from the state?

    ==I know that frustrates you all to death.==

    Sorry we don’t automatically agree with your stunning insights like “Someone who used to work for Rauner now works Bailey” and “a different guy won a different race for a different office so Irvin will probably win, too”. But in our defense, those aren’t very good arguments, regardless of my emotional state.

    ==But there’s a reason JB just decided to just go all in himself. ==

    “Tim Anderson just hit a double, the White Sox must be scared of the Royals.”


  38. - Rich Miller - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:59 pm:

    Roadrager and others, Rauner got 40 percent in the 2014 primary.


  39. - Real - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:00 pm:

    Spending tens of millions but still having over 22% undecided is not doing surprisingly well.


  40. - PublicServant - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:01 pm:

    === I believe Richard Irvin has what it takes to win the governor’s race by capturing the electoral vote despite losing the popular one. ===

    Only with an alternate set of Electors appointed by Ken Griffin, the man who Irvin corruptly helped make 6.8 billion dollars last year.


  41. - PublicServant - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:02 pm:

    Thanks for the blueprint, Z.


  42. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:05 pm:

    For my part, I pretty much expected Irvin to hover around the low to mid 40s after his ads reached saturation. Just a little bit better than Rauner ‘14, since his opponents are noticeably weaker than Rauner’s were. So this is is a surprisingly *poor* showing relative to my expectations. But then I also expected Irvin to try to get at least a little earned media and put in a couple of personal appearances, so that might explain where I was wrong.


  43. - Rich Miller - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:13 pm:

    ===since his opponents are noticeably weaker than Rauner’s were===

    Except none of Rauner’s opponents had much if any cash. Bailey does.


  44. - Pundent - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:20 pm:

    =Irvin is doing surprisingly well despite your best efforts to claim otherwise.=

    With the money advantage that he enjoys and a crowded, weak, field I’d say he’s doing surprisingly poor. But I think that’s due to the fact that he’s not a particularly good candidate. But to your larger point, he only has to be good enough to win.


  45. - Nick - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:35 pm:

    I don’t regret voting for Dillard in 2014.

    Alas I don’t think there’s anymore of his type left to vote for in the party.


  46. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:52 pm:

    ==Except none of Rauner’s opponents had much if any cash. Bailey does. ==

    Bailey has…other issues, lol.


  47. - MisterJayEm - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 4:03 pm:

    After millions and millions and millions of dollars to introduce Irvin to GOP primary voters, that Undecided number still hangs over his head like an anvil.

    – MrJM


  48. - cermak_rd - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 4:15 pm:

    (best David Attenborough voice) Today we turn our attention to the undecided Republican primary voter. Who are they? They are motivated enough to state they will vote in a GOP primary. Will they? They are persistent enough to stay with the GOP despite its dwindling IL chances. But with a very short time until the primary, they have not decided. Why? What motivates this majestic animal?


  49. - PublicServant - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 6:24 pm:

    The GOP undecided are Independents who lean right. They want a true conservative who isn’t a nut. They’re not seeing one. Will they stay home and let Irvin squeak by, or Make a choice to reject Griffin’s puppet? We will see.


  50. - macombward bound - Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 8:48 pm:

    ===After millions and millions and millions of dollars to introduce Irvin to GOP primary voters, that Undecided number still hangs over his head like an anvil.===

    Two can play this game. After millions and millions spent tearing down Irvin and boosting Bailey as the ultra-right choice, that undecided number still hangs over Bailey’s head like an anvil.


  51. - Ice Scream - Friday, May 27, 22 @ 8:55 am:

    Who is 1892? Their website is a splash page and there’s like zero information about this ‘polling firm’ on the internet.

    Anyone know who they even are?


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