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Poll: Bailey ahead of Irvin 32-17, leads in Downstate and suburbs

Friday, Jun 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tina Sfondeles and Dave McKinney

A total of 32% of respondents said they’d vote for Bailey if the primary were held this past week. Only 17% chose Irvin. And the downstate lawmaker was beating Irvin not only on his own rural and small-town turf but also in the vast stretch of Chicago suburbs, where the Aurora mayor had been expected to do well. […]

But besides Bailey and Irvin, only Sullivan finished in the double digits in the poll, with 11%. Rabine had 6%; Schimpf — recipient of the Chicago Tribune’s endorsement — had 4%, and Solomon just 2%. The automated poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, found 27% of respondents were still undecided. […]

Not surprisingly, Bailey appears to be carrying his home base, leading Irvin downstate 38% to 14%. But in an ominous turn for Irvin, Bailey was also ahead in the collar counties, 29% to 18%, and in suburban Cook County, 29% to 21%. Suburban Chicago had been believed to be an Irvin stronghold, and the Chicago television market is where Irvin had concentrated much of his ad buying. […]

The poll found that 44% considered the economy their top issue of concern. Crime and corruption came in second with 11% each, while taxes polled at 10%. Just 8% of those polled called abortion their top concern. […]

The poll found 52% of respondents said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who supported Trump, while 36% said it wouldn’t make a difference. Another 8% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who supported the former president.

Crime is not the campaign issue some people think it is in a race like this. Go read the rest.

…Adding… DGA…

Richard Irvin, Ken Griffin’s $50 million candidate, has woken up to find his campaign in free fall with just under three weeks until the primary election. A game-changing poll by the Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ shows State Senator Darren Bailey with a stunning 15-point lead over mega billionaire-backed Irvin.

This comes just as Irvin’s campaign pulls down ad coverage from the entire downstate media market where he has floundered to find a message that resonates with voters. Irvin even admitted he can’t be himself downstate. But ultra-conservative Bailey isn’t just leading downstate, he’s also pulled in Irvin’s own backyard, outpacing Irvin in the Chicago suburbs.

It’s no wonder his numbers are plummeting. Voters can see right through his constant flip-flopping and fence-sitting. With months and $50 million to take a stand on pertinent issues and claim ownership of his record, Irvin has done everything but.

Even with Griffin’s war chest, it seems Irvin has taken this race and Illinois voters for granted. The Irvin campaign is grasping at straws to reinvent a disingenuous candidate in the last leg of this race, but with early voting already underway, their failing strategy is likely unrectifiable.

“After months of dodging reporters and the public, the Irvin campaign is paying the price,” said DGA Communications Director David Turner. “The only candidate for governor prepared to represent all Illinoisans is JB Pritzker.”

       

92 Comments
  1. - sewer thoughts - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:12 am:

    looks like a significant number of the “respectability” GOP types who care about crime are now post-Trump leaning Democrats. gotta love a situation where the money in each party may be chasing an issue instead of listening to primary voters.


  2. - Montrose - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:12 am:

    Jesse Sullivan being the most popular Republican candidate in Chicago is kinda like being the most popular Green Bay Packers player.


  3. - Chicagonk - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:14 am:

    Well looks like Pritzker will get his preferred opponent.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:16 am:

    It wasn’t that Irvin peaked, it was that both Mayor Irvin and Candidate Irvin couldn’t grasp that God, Guns, and Country will be chosen over things like… crime.

    Mayor Irvin coulda had his own lane. Irvin’s own oppo was seemingly dismissed, “missed”, or flat out ignored as existing?

    Will the question be on that following Wednesday be…

    Should Irvin even had run?

    The absent Bourne, it might not take much more for her to fade away.


  5. - NotRich - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:25 am:

    Proft ⬆️⬆️ Z ⬇️⬇️


  6. - PublicServant - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:26 am:

    Hello Darren, this is Ken. I can be your Huckleberry.


  7. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:27 am:

    In my best Judge Smails voice-

    “OH, Griffy, Griffy, Griffy. OH Griffy.”


  8. - Steve - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:27 am:

    I guess some people don’t care about the money behind Richard Irvin. Also, many people aren’t impressed with Richard Irvin’s lack of candor. JB has few worries in this increasingly blue state come November.


  9. - DuPage Saint - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:29 am:

    Great job by Tribune once again showing the power of the press in picking a candidate in the 21st century
    And no Willy I don’t have any idea why Irivin ever thought it would be a good idea to run. Money probably. He should have just stayed under radar and been mayor for life. A job he seems to love
    But now what. Once the Dixiecrat goes down in flames can the GOP start to come back?


  10. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:29 am:

    Do these kind of poll numbers lead to a Trump endorsement event if only so Trump can take credit?


  11. - Roadrager - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:34 am:

    Ken and Richard ignored tha fact that most of the Republican base, even in Illinois, is comprised of single-issue voters. And that issue is fealty.


  12. - Da big bad wolf - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:39 am:

    Another $53 million should fix that.


  13. - Watchful eye. - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:40 am:

    Nice work genius Z. Emboldened Darren Bailey. Good by GOP


  14. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:49 am:

    “can the GOP start to come back”

    Jim Thompson ain’t walkin’ through that door.

    …and if he did, he would be labeled a RINO.


  15. - Bruce( no not him) - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:57 am:

    I’m surprised Downstate isn’t more lopsided to Bailey.
    I know yard signs don’t vote, but I have yet to see an Irvin sign in several counties I drive through.


  16. - Don't Bloc Me In - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:58 am:

    Not all that long ago many were predicting Bailey had no chance in the primary because he was just so, you know, Bailey. Now come the rosy forecasts that JB will walk over him on the way to reelection. I’m just gonna sit back and not join in the party yet. What Trump did in 2016, in spite of all the predictions, keeps me sober.


  17. - Excitable Boy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 7:59 am:

    - looks like a significant number of the “respectability” GOP types who care about crime are now post-Trump leaning Democrats. -

    Not sure how you reached that conclusion. In my experience they’re now Trumpers, respectability be darned.


  18. - Roman - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:01 am:

    == Crime is not the campaign issue some people think it is ==

    That’s right. And this isn’t the only poll that has shown that. Yet a big chunk of Irvin’s ads focused on crime. Did their polling show something different? Or was crime the focus because that’s what Griffin wanted?


  19. - fs - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:03 am:

    == What Trump did in 2016==

    Was lose Illinois bigly. Unless Illinois suddenly adopt an electoral college style system that gives downstate votes more weight than the Chicago area, the comparison to Trump 6 years ago is naive. At best.


  20. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:05 am:

    ===Not sure how you reached that conclusion. In my experience===

    “Your anecdotal isn’t as good as my anecdotal”?

    Is that how it works?

    Here’s the sitch.

    Illinois isn’t “more blue”, Illinois’ GOP isn’t any less or more Trumpian.

    Illinois has NO choice from the party formally known as the GOP. *That’s* the sitch.

    Everything after that realization feeds off that Illinois has no choices from the party known as the GOP.

    For me, orphaned and homeless… Bailey as a nominee won’t bring me “home”… the party of Bailey and Trump won’t find me in their ranks. That’s me.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:07 am:

    ===What Trump did in 2016===

    Trump lost the popular vote, as polled and predicted.


  22. - Real - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:09 am:

    -The Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll — and follow-up interviews with some of those surveyed — suggests abortion, Griffin’s millions and former President Donald Trump all influenced respondents’ decisions.-

    Griffin being the sole funder of the Irvin campaign is a real issue for some.


  23. - Bruce( no not him) - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:10 am:

    Alot of Downstate doesn’t care about Chicago crime.
    It’s assumed that it’s a crime riddled mess.
    The biggest concern is it stays in Chicago and doesn’t move downstate. (/S Kinda)


  24. - Friendly Bob Adams - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:10 am:

    hisgirlfriday- Yes, that’s Trump’s M.O.- endorse someone likely to win without your endorsement. Sometime over the weekend, probably.


  25. - Primate - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:11 am:

    The IL GOP can come back if they completely separate from these Rauner people. This was a good step. The next step is to cut their lifeline to the Party structure and other republican centric organizations. Candidates should always ask if potential staff ever worked for the Z/Rauner team. This disqualifies them now.


  26. - Excitable Boy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:13 am:

    - “Your anecdotal isn’t as good as my anecdotal”? -

    That was my point, oh great one of the blog. Nothing in this article suggests a bunch of former republicans are now “post-Trump” democrats.


  27. - PublicServant - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:14 am:

    === Or was crime the focus because that’s what Griffin wanted? ===

    Ding. Ding. Ding. We have a winner.


  28. - Real - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:16 am:

    -The IL GOP can come back if they completely separate from these Rauner people.-

    This would be the only way. All of the IL Gop candidates minus Irvin would make a good Gov. They all are running on their own beliefs and convictions and Irvin is running on a special interest agenda.


  29. - Elliott Ness - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:17 am:

    Funny how what seems like something is a win when it really is a loss, the GOP is ruining itself or Bailey is what they want. They will break even or lose seats in the House with Bailey near the top of the ticket and JB aid now has a walk in the park in November if these hold up. JB a has played it well by attacking Irvin and exposing Bailey at the same time. Getting his cake and eating it too. The biggest loser is Z, had all the money in the world, and really exposed his inability. How did he get $50 plus million from Griffin (loser #2) to back someone they had obviously not vetted properly in Irvin (loser #3)? Bourne (loser #4) must have decided “up or out”.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:19 am:

    === === Or was crime the focus because that’s what Griffin wanted? ===

    Ding. Ding. Ding. We have a winner.===

    I think that’s the lead. The punchline is that Griffin sees no need to run a candidate for the Chicago mayor.

    - Excitable Boy -

    “Great One”.. maybe “Moderately Mediocre”, sure…

    :)


  31. - PublicServant - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:23 am:

    === The IL GOP can come back if they completely separate from these Rauner people ===

    LOL. Let’s not forget The Big Lie, Q-Anon, and our children being sacrificed on the alter of the almighty gun gods. I’m thinking they’ll need some distance from those messes too.


  32. - Primate - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:24 am:

    Public Servant - Agreed 100%. It has to start somewhere.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:30 am:

    The grip of The Cult, and all that - PublicServant - listed…

    I’m old enough to remember Pat Brady fighting off Jim Oberweis on same sex marriage…

    … now we have members of Congress that a party embraces for being “in town” for an insurrection.

    Oberweis rebuffed to Miller being embraced.

    That’s a party lacking a moral compass, let alone not running winning candidates


  34. - So_Ill - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:41 am:

    I wonder if these numbers would be any different if Richard Irvin ran as Richard Irvin and not some right wing zealot?

    Probably not in a GOP primary in 2022, but at least he would still have his dignity. Whoever thought it was a good campaign strategy to paint Bailey as a secret liberal democrat should never have a job in politics again.


  35. - Carbondale Chronicle - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:45 am:

    In a downstate community, I saw a yard sign where Bourne was on the first line and Irvin was on the second line. I don’t know if this is part of the campaign’s new strategy but I found it very odd where that gubernatorial candidate has second billing over the lieutenant gubernatorial candidate.


  36. - Pot calling kettle - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:48 am:

    I wouldn’t write off Irvin yet…too many candidates in the mix. That said, I have to wonder what the race would look like if the handlers had let Irvin be Irvin (moderate suburban mayor) rather than try to imply he was a Trumpy conservative. Why go for the Trump voters when there are so many names on the ballot that could split that vote and there are plenty of GOP voters who don’t care (the winner will probably only need 35-40% of the vote). Also, if Bailey wins, JB better take him very seriously.


  37. - supplied_demand - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:49 am:

    ===Griffin being the sole funder of the Irvin campaign is a real issue for some. ===

    If people actually wanted him to be Governor, Griffin wouldn’t be his only funder, regular people would have donated. The money Bailey gets from Uihlein doesn’t seem to bother anyone voting in the Republican primary.


  38. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:58 am:

    ===The money Bailey gets from Uihlein doesn’t seem to bother anyone===

    Paid media has not mentioned Dick U, and reporters have only made a few glancing references. Griffin has played prominently in both paid and earned media, however.


  39. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:02 am:

    I guess we’ll be seeing a lot more of the manchild’s hell-hole comment.


  40. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:03 am:

    ===Griffin wouldn’t be his only funder, regular people would have donated===

    He’s raised $3 million from others. Never concentrated much on it. But I think that’s still more than any other GOP candidate (aside from Uihlein’s money and candidate personal funds).


  41. - Glengarry - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:03 am:

    It is indeed a good morning.


  42. - Socially DIstant watcher - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:04 am:

    ==crime is not the issue some people think it is==

    Neither is Madigan. But that won’t stop some people from playing that song all day long.


  43. - Oldtimer - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:05 am:

    Irvin-Bourne reminds me of Phelan-Severns from 1994. An insider’s dream ticket that initially appeared to be quite strong with geographic balance but ended up substantially underperforming.


  44. - TheInvisibleMan - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:05 am:

    Bailey has always had a strong hold in my area of the Chicago suburbs. It started long before he ran for office with all the mask drama in schools. Bailey had name recognition in the suburbs before he even announced he was running for office, while many people in the suburbs bordering Aurora didn’t even know who Richard Irvin was.

    I’m not surprised by this outcome.

    DGA correctly recognized this development and used it to their advantage to solidify Bailey with their ‘too conservative for Illinois’ ads.


  45. - Big Dipper - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:06 am:

    ==The biggest concern is it stays in Chicago and doesn’t move downstate. (/S Kinda)==

    They are busy with their meth labs.


  46. - Left of what - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:07 am:

    Que the it’s happening meme


  47. - vern - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:07 am:

    The more I think about it, the weirder it is that Irvin never articulated much of an economic message. Clearly he wanted to stay away from far-right stuff that would hurt him in the general, but the Fair Tax has already been tested in the general. Income tax increases have to be a 95%+ issue in the R primary. That issue sits right at the intersection of red meat and electability. Bailey and Sullivan both ran culture war campaigns, the lane was open. That blind spot, and the mystifying choice to get outspent, ended up being the story of this race.

    And massive kudos are due to the Pritzker political operation for how this went. They fully funded a primary candidate who never got tagged with it. They ran circles around the Z team on the airwaves and in the press. They outspent a billionaire who’s net worth is 20x Pritzker’s, and the end result seems like it won’t be particularly close. They ran one of the better campaigns in recent Illinois history, and they did it in the other party’s primary.


  48. - Pundent - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:08 am:

    =The money Bailey gets from Uihlein doesn’t seem to bother anyone voting in the Republican primary.=

    Uihlein supports Bailey’s agenda. Irvin is being paid to run Griffin’s agenda.


  49. - Frumpy White Guy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:09 am:

    Look to see Ken Griffen bankroll ads to boost Jesse Sullivan as a right winger all to cut into the hog farmers right wing support.


  50. - Homebody - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:12 am:

    ==The biggest concern is it stays in Chicago and doesn’t move downstate. (/S Kinda)==

    I literally just saw a WSJ article talking about rising crime in rural areas. The pandemic crime increase has been a nationwide issue that impacts every state, urban and rural alike. - https://www.wsj.com/articles/violent-crime-rural-america-homicides-pandemic-increase-11654864251


  51. - ZC - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:13 am:

    While I don’t think it’s the only thing obviously, I think the timing works pretty well, those “Irvin doubted Trump” ads have been awful for him. Example like #1,458 that, in a primary race where none of the candidates are that well defined, past evidence of Trump-bashing is a millstone (unless you can get Trump to publicly forgive you). I bet it’s worse than the corruption attacks.

    Trump may not endorse in this race but his shadow persists over 2022 primaries everywhere.


  52. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:14 am:

    ===Uihlein supports Bailey’s agenda. Irvin is being paid to run Griffin’s agenda===

    That right there… Top Shelf.

    ===And massive kudos are due to the Pritzker political operation for how this went. They fully funded a primary candidate who never got tagged with it. They ran circles around the Z team on the airwaves and in the press.===

    The lesson was learned and learned well with the Fair Tax Flop;

    Go hard, go deep, go right after the opponent early and often… and it doesn’t hurt when it’s not a “theory” (referendum if you will) and you make it personal… on a candidate.

    It’s not that Z was getting hit in all sides, but it was that Z and Co created this candidate, vaguely vetted, running on what the sponsor wanted… and it was too few fingers for the leaks in the wall


  53. - Common Sense - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:14 am:

    What the country needs is a centrist third party custom tailored for someone like Irving. The real Irving. The one who is sympathetic to BLM, supports basic human rights but has a conservative bent when it comes to crime and lower taxes. That party might actually do quite well in Illinois.


  54. - Norseman - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:16 am:

    Griffin picked his candidate by choosing characteristics that he thought could chip off enough support for JB to win. He then tried to remake the man and ignore his history to win over the GOP base. This poll seems to indicate that you can’t take a Dem leaning silk purse and turn him into a GOP sow’s ear.


  55. - Donnie Elgin - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:16 am:

    The polling data is limited to only 667 respondents from a Dem-leaning pollster that used “likely Rep Primary voters” vs. the gold standard of registered rep.


  56. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:18 am:

    Great article and analysis. Irvin is so phony. That should and apparently does trouble many. Candidates like Irvin make people feel cynical and dislike politicians and politics. This helped the former president win, because many wanted an outsider who “tells it like it is.”


  57. - Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:20 am:

    ===gold standard of registered rep.===

    If you’re polling registered voters three weeks out, you’re a fool.


  58. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:21 am:

    The checks cash the same for Z. He’s a winner here. Anytime he works, Z wins. The election results help with his fees.

    Bourne… wasted talent… gotta be feeling a lil remorse right now, if this poll proves to be what “will be”

    Plucked to fill a seat, won her first election… Bourne’s legacy is a day on the House floor against HB40.

    That’s whom one could feel bad for, but wasted talent is on the person not on others.

    If they lose, go back to law school, lobby, make a boatload of cash consulting… but Bourne would be out, when both opportunities in the statehouse were still an option.


  59. - Left of what - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:21 am:

    It seems z is a one trick pony, the 2010s era republican stuff doesn’t fly anymore. As I’ve said before, Bailey was always the only candidate that made sense. He has a clear message, is the Trumpiest, and has also been out campaigning the longest. From his socials he’s also been in rooms with actual voters, not staged events with 6 people like the rest of these candidates. It was always going to be Bailey and it looks like now that undecideds are beginning to break, it’s confirming that.


  60. - Pundent - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:25 am:

    =I literally just saw a WSJ article talking about rising crime in rural areas.=

    Conservative rural voters aren’t really all that concerned about crime or backing the blue for that matter. Most of them likely didn’t watch the 2 hour crime drama that was on all the networks last night.

    Crime is a proxy issue. And Bailey knows that your reach will be a lot broader if you package the problem more effectively by referring to it as “values.” And give an assist to Pritzker and the DGA in labeling Bailey “too conservative.”


  61. - Don't Bloc Me In - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:26 am:

    Maybe it’s because I watched the hearings last night, or that I’m a blue dot in the Eastern Bloc, but I’m in a cautious mood this morning. Even so, I believe Bailey’s chances are slim in the general.

    Thank you for the friendly reassurance: - fs - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 8:03 am: “, the comparison to Trump 6 years ago is naive. At best.”


  62. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:26 am:

    My apologies, it was SB25… not HB40 for Bourne.

    That’s on me.


  63. - Real - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:28 am:

    If Bailey or Irvin are to lose the general I can guess 10 years from now that Bailey, Uhlien, and his running mate will still be friends. And I guess that Irvin, Bourne, Griffin might become strangers. Authenticity is another thing the Irvin campaign lacks. The candidate seems to be rolled out of a corporate marketing department.


  64. - Left of what - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:32 am:

    ==10 years from now that Bailey, Uhlien, and his running mate will still be friends.==

    Electoral politics are really just the friends we made along the way


  65. - Amalia - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:38 am:

    agree with HisGirlFriday. Trump needs a win. oh boy, he may be coming our way.


  66. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:38 am:

    Well well well. Seems Illinois doesn’t want nobody that just one guy sent either. Winning campaigns have to build enthusiasm. Irvin/Griffin have built none. In the end, people have to actually make the effort to go vote for you. Bailey’s supporters will make that effort.

    If Bailey wins, he should savor his victory because the chances of the entire state electing a secessionist who thinks Chicago needs a babysitter are none and none.


  67. - Jocko - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:40 am:

    From the article.
    One downstate retiree complained that Irvin was “just not a Trumper.”

    This tells you everything you need to know about the current republican party.


  68. - Pundent - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 9:52 am:

    =Even so, I believe Bailey’s chances are slim in the general.=

    Aligning yourself with Trump on a statewide basis isn’t going to work in Illinois. He’s been resoundingly defeated both times he was on the ballot. And in a state with enough diverse, moderate, college educated voters there simply is no path for Bailey. And if there’s one thing that we know about Darren it’s that he will not be pivoting to the middle. In fact it’s part of his “charm.”

    If you’re looking for a more rapid reboot of the ILGOP a Bailey primary win followed by a general election thumping could help. But only if the party sees to it to help themselves.

    Richard Irvin is nothing more than a sequel to Bruce Rauner and the voters clearly didn’t like that experience. Ken Griffin sees a weak party apparatus that can be easily bought to serve his purposes. And this time it’s personal.

    The party needs to completely rethink it’s strategy while reconciling some very different statewide ideologies. The candidates capable of getting regional wins only serve to make the party more unattractive on a statewide basis.


  69. - Arsenal - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:05 am:

    == The polling data is limited to only 667 respondents from a Dem-leaning pollster that used “likely Rep Primary voters” vs. the gold standard of registered rep.==

    Cope and seethe. Within the last 3 weeks of the primary you should *absolutely* switch to an LV model.


  70. - MoralMinority - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:13 am:

    As someone who knows Bailey personally, although no longer at all proud of that, I will give him credit for doing better than I expected with his statewide campaign. I think in large part it is because Irvin has spectacularly bungled his own campaign, but around this part of the state Bailey is seen as a hero in his own right to the anti-mask, anti-vax, pro-gun, zero-tax, fundamentalist cultists. Part of me wants to see him win the primary and be soundly thrashed in November, but I never thought Trump had a snowball’s chance in 96, so to be safe I would rejoice in seeing him go down at the end of this month, even if it is close. Anyway, Brother Darren, I’m praying daily for you to come back to us here in Clay County come next year.


  71. - Lincoln Lad - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:16 am:

    Griffin saved enough money defeating the Fair Tax that throwing money away with Irvin didn’t hurt at all. Misrepresentation worked the first time, but doesn’t look like it will with Irvin as the candidate.


  72. - Wading in... - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:20 am:

    ===The absent Bourne, it might not take much more for her to fade away.===

    Good. Maybe when all the Raunerites fade away the IL Republican Party can start becoming what it needs to be to be relevant again.


  73. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:27 am:

    ===Maybe when all the Raunerites fade away the IL Republican Party can start becoming what it needs to be to be relevant again.===

    While in wholly, total context, I won’t weep for a single Raunerite loyalist leaving the GA, the harsh reality is they are going to be replaced by more “Baileys” than Pre-Rauner “Durkins”

    I’m not losing sleep when Raunerites leave, the wasted talent that Bourne coulda used for good and not be that Raunerite is part of her own legacy… it might be something to visit again if Demmer finds himself on the outside looking in as well.


  74. - Real - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:30 am:

    == The polling data is limited to only 667 respondents from a Dem-leaning pollster that used “likely Rep Primary voters” vs. the gold standard of registered rep.==

    So if you say this is flawed because these these aren’t “registered” republicans then how would you expect him to do better in the general when these likely voters are voting for Bailey?


  75. - CubsFan16 - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:35 am:

    Does this mean President Pritzker?


  76. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:36 am:

    Those “humanizing” ads apparently are working pretty well for Bailey, the farmer’s hands and standing up to bullies. Almost teared up myself. He also looks real good in the Pritzker or DGA commercial with that firearm and pro-life stance. The Chicago hellhole comment also probably hit the spot with many GOP voters.


  77. - Nacho - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:39 am:

    ==I wouldn’t write off Irvin yet…too many candidates in the mix.==

    According to the poll, he’s down 24 to Bailey downstate. Even accounting for a larger MoE on a subsample, it’s safe to say he’s down a lot there and going dark in the vast majority of that territory isn’t going to help. The campaign’s justification is that 52% of the electorate is in the Chicago DMA, but it’s not enough to merely win the Chicago DMA. To counter a massive loss in the rest of the state you need a massive win in the Chicago DMA. As it stands he’s losing the suburbs to Bailey and only leading him by 3 in the city itself. Meanwhile he’s underwater at 35/43 fav/unfav while Bailey’s sitting at 57/16. That’s a steep hill to climb with time running out and early voting underway.

    Yes, this is just one poll, but the Irvin campaign sure isn’t acting like their internals are painting a significantly rosier picture.


  78. - Annonin' - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:43 am:

    Pollsters name did not ring a bell, but this nugget helps…ah the good old days.
    “The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released a survey last November showing that Madigan would lead Quinn by 44 points in a head-to-head race, 64 percent to 20 percent. PPP showed Daley leading Quinn by a much smaller, 3-point margin in the same survey.” (the Daley is vote getting powerhouse Bill)


  79. - JS Mill - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:43 am:

    I am made giddy by the possibility that Bailey becomes the gop gubernatorial candidate in the general that Pritzker will face.

    If that comes to fruition, I will enjoy the relentless pounding he gets during the campaign. And I hope it is merciless, as he and his ilk have been with schools and the collective crazy they brought this year (especially this year).

    Bailey is no more honest or genuine than Irvin. He is a grifter, panderer, and hypocrite of the first order. He does not live his professed faith and I will enjoy (hopefully) seeing him fully outed.

    I do not apologize for the zealous vitriol that I send his way, he has earned it.

    That said, I have learned over the last several elections that you have to be VERY skeptical of polls. If I am on the Pritzker team, I would keep the hammer down and not let up until mid November. Take absolutely nothing for granted. Nothing.

    Now is the time to define all of your potential adversaries whilst they are attacking one another.

    Given recent news from the Irvin camp, things certainly don’t look good, but American political history is replete with comeback stories and unexpected outcomes. I wouldn’t give up just yet.

    But I am liking my chops for a Pritzker-Bailey general. I will volunteer to go door-to-door for the first time since the early 90’s on behalf of a candidate, and for a Democrat for the first time ever.


  80. - MisterJayEm - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 10:47 am:

    “You’re gonna need a bigger reboot.” — Roy Scheider (attributed)


  81. - Wonky Kong - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 11:07 am:

    = I am made giddy by the possibility that Bailey becomes the gop gubernatorial candidate in the general that Pritzker will face.=
    I’m not glad I’m any way that someone like him will get a bigger platform and an official party nomination that will make him, and his beliefs, seem more legitimate.


  82. - Pundent - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 11:21 am:

    =I’m not glad I’m any way that someone like him will get a bigger platform and an official party nomination that will make him, and his beliefs, seem more legitimate.=

    Legitimacy is achieved by holding office. What a Bailey candidacy would establish is irrelevancy. And that’s a message the ILGOP needs to hear if it’s going to find it’s way back. The question remains will it listen?


  83. - JS Mill - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 11:25 am:

    =I’m not glad I’m any way that someone like him will get a bigger platform and an official party nomination that will make him, and his beliefs, seem more legitimate.=

    That ship has already sailed for the gop. Unlike other places Bailey, and those like him, face a significant counter punch in Illinois thanks to Pritzker.

    When the narrative was confined to the eastern block and forgottonia echo chambers there was no counter so it was done with impunity. No longer, and those areas where they blindly adhere to this garbage will, at least, have to see that there is someone refuting this narrative. And maybe some of it sticks in their heads when they learn what a false prophet Bailey really is.

    With respect.


  84. - Primate - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 11:36 am:

    Ok, I concede to OW that Z is a winner with this trifecta. He has now successfully milked three millionaires (McKenna, Rauner and Griffin). Problem is that he took down the party to achieve this esteemed accomplishment. The Z/Rauner effect has now infected candidates for years to come. They will be denying any affiliation to this Rauner crew for years. Z tried to be Carter and failed miserably.


  85. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 11:36 am:

    Sunshine is a great disinfectant.

    The GOP, if Bailey is the nominee, will learn things about Illinois voters with ballot totals and regional pluralities.

    A lesson that the state is “too blue” is a cop out to owning that the message and the messenger could be rejected by former GOP voters who can’t ignore who someone is, or what someone is.


  86. - Real - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 11:42 am:

    Bailey will do better than a lukewarm Irvin nominee.


  87. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 11:58 am:

    ===Z is a winner with this trifecta. He has now successfully milked three millionaires (McKenna, Rauner and Griffin). Problem is that he took down the party to achieve this esteemed accomplishment.===

    (Tips cap)

    I won’t ever claim to speak for Z , or anyone frankly, but it’s not Z’s job to build… or sustain… any political party.

    Z’s job is to maximize a campaign effort… that could be victorious.

    While Goldberg is my favorite… by miles and miles, I’m sure Z can not only speak for himself to things but also could care “less than less” about anything I think or say.


  88. - Cool Papa Bell - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 1:11 pm:

    === The IL GOP can come back if they completely separate from these Rauner people ===

    The REAL GOP could begin it’s return to prominence right here in Illinois if “they” turned things over to Adam Kinzinger.

    But they won’t and honestly they don’t want that party. The more I talk to people on that side I feel they are liberated to act and say how they have always wanted too. The entire MAGA thing exposed the bedrock nature of plenty of people who only had to vote for RINO’s and others in the Republican party because they had no real alternative. Now they have one and they love it.


  89. - Left of what - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 1:20 pm:

    == The REAL GOP could begin it’s return to prominence right here in Illinois if “they” turned things over to Adam Kinzinger. ==

    Who is the they in this? If you mean party activists and voters aka the base,they’re the reason the real gop in 2022 doesn’t want Adam Kinzigner.


  90. - don the legend - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 1:59 pm:

    If Bailey is the nominee, would Uhlein put 100+ million into the campaign?


  91. - Pundent - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 2:39 pm:

    =If Bailey is the nominee, would Uhlein put 100+ million into the campaign?=

    Well he did help fund Roy Moore in Alabama so anything is possible. But I’m not sure that Uihlein has 100M to throw around or if he did that he’d put all of it on Darren Bailey.


  92. - Proud Papa Bear - Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 4:38 pm:

    “standing up to bullies.”
    I agree that it’s a good ad but it looks like it takes place in the 1950s, making him about 15 years older than he is.
    Perhaps that was the point, to take us back to life before the civil rights era.


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