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*** UPDATED x2 *** New poll supposedly has Bailey ahead of Irvin by 14 points

Monday, Jun 13, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Fox 32 has aired two reports about a new Ogden & Fry poll, but has yet to disclose what the actual toplines are except that Bailey leads Irvin by 14 points and Sullivan trails Irvin by about 6 points. The person who owns the firm, Republican Cook County Board candidate Matt Podgorski, did say that his toplines came very close to the Sun-Times result of 32-17 Bailey over Irvin, but that’s it.

By the second story, Fox 32 shared the factoid that when undecideds were pushed to make a decision, Bailey’s lead supposedly increased to 16 points

No methodology was disclosed, including how many people were polled, how they were polled, what sort of Republicans were polled, when they were polled, the geographic breakdown and the MoE. Not exactly best practices, but I figured you’d want to know and hear some of the caveats.

Supposedly, we’ll find out more tonight during the 9 o’clock news, including maybe results in other races.

*** UPDATE 1 *** Toplines…

Darren Bailey 31
Gary Rabine 8
Jesse Sullivan 11
Max Solomon 1
Paul Schimpf 3
Richard Irvin 17
Undecided 30

Methodology…

Ogden & Fry conducted a nine-question poll June 11 - 12, 2022, with 662 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely Republican voters. Responses were gathered through SMS to web. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.89% at the 95% confidence interval.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Slate…



       

59 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:12 pm:

    All caveats accepted, seen, and taken into all consideration;

    “To the post”

    Irvin peaked at ~24%, ~27%….

    They’ve stalled?

    That could be a bad sign.

    (Read at the top all caveats included)


  2. - New Day - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:15 pm:

    “That could be a bad sign.”

    Gee, ya think?


  3. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:16 pm:

    === Gee, ya think?===

    I typed it, so I must think it, lol

    Anything else? Thoughts on the poll?


  4. - Nick - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:21 pm:

    I was talking to my folks earlier about this race. They haven’t really paid much attention and don’t seem to have anything against Irvin personally.

    “But he’s the one who was buddies and supported Pritzker, right?”


  5. - Socially DIstant Watcher - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:29 pm:

    I really hope Griff has another $50M in the seat cushions…


  6. - Lincoln Lad - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:38 pm:

    If Griffin has another $50M, he should support me. I’ve pulled dem ballots, support BLM, and most importantly, won’t do any ‘play for pay’ with contractors. I’m a much better choice than Irvin ever was…


  7. - Lurker - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:42 pm:

    I know it’s anecdotal but people up north are telling me they don’t know Sullivan. Come on, Jesse, let them know you and the suburbs will support you.


  8. - JS Mill - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:47 pm:

    =let them know you and the suburbs will support you.=

    Maybe the suburbs of Mt. Vernon. Lol


  9. - B Team - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:52 pm:

    How far will Irvin tank? This would be an absolute campaign disaster if Irvin ended up third. I don’t know how Mike Z would come back from that.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 6:59 pm:

    ===I don’t know how Mike Z would come back from that.===

    Narrator: Z comes back from that.

    Proft is grifting and all of Proft’s talents won’t even fill ONE the *pinkies* of Z.


  11. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 7:29 pm:

    Based on the other poll showing Illinois Republican voters to be overwhelmingly pro-Trump, this seems right for Bailey. He is fortunate that he has an opponent with millions of dollars and a liberal past, instead of a well-funded Trumpy opponent.


  12. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 7:33 pm:

    There’s not many people in Illinois who write $50M checks. I dunno if Griffin gives anyone a second chance, that just does not seem his style.

    The line from the campaign seems to be “no one could have predicted” how much Democrats were willing to spend to defeat Griffin’s candidate. i think it was pretty easy to see that both Pritzker and Griffin were willing to spend “as much as it takes,” it just clearly got to a point where it did not matter how much Griffin spent.

    Mike Z had an air of invincibility about him, it was always a myth, everyone loses sooner or later. Except Mike Noonan, I dont think he ever lost a race?

    Losing does not make Mike bad at his job though, anymore than this makes Proft good. Sooner or later, Proft was gonna have to win won too, it just so happened this time Prof5 pick3d 5he candidate with the best chance of winning the primary from Day 1, while Mike Z attempted the very difficult task of paddling upstream in the GOP primary so the current would be at his back for the general.

    Lousy leaders only ever take on challenges they can never lose. Great leaders accwpt responsibility for those defeats and learn from them. Most importantly, any defeat this big lies mostly at the feet of the candidate. Irvin proved to be thoroughly untrustworthy.

    Mike Z still seems to me to be the go-to guy if you are a Republican candidate in a blue/swing state, i just dont know how many of those there are left.

    Maybe NY is a better fit, or maybe if he just waits for enough Chicagoans to relocate to Nashville he can work in Tennessee?


  13. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 7:34 pm:

    That’s three polls that show Bailey ahead now. Add in Irvin’s blind panic and I buy it.


  14. - Real - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 7:40 pm:

    What’s funny is a month ago some on here were saying Bailey was at his ceiling.


  15. - Pot calling kettle - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 7:53 pm:

    =let them know you and the suburbs will support you.=

    Doubtful. Sullivan decided to go hard right a while back.


  16. - gavrilo - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:10 pm:

    Mr. Willy, if Z goes through $50 million and now Sullivan is running close, he’ll have his payday, but I can’t imagine he can go back to the same well. It is not a good result.


  17. - Roman - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:10 pm:

    == supposedly ==

    Always wise to read Ogden & Fry polls with skepticism. But as has been mentioned here before, if Irvin’s tracking polls showed something different, they would have been leaked by now.


  18. - Back to the Future - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:18 pm:

    Sullivan continues to trend up.
    Sometimes hard work pays off.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:23 pm:

    ===Sometimes hard work pays off.===

    Winners… make policy

    Second, third, they make nothing.

    Second, third in a primary make less than nothing.


  20. - Back to the Future - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:32 pm:

    Always appreciate OWs comments, but why throw away your vote in the Republican Primary on Bailey or Irvin?
    The anti Pritzker vote is baked in. Of course, Sullivan remains a long shot, but he has built a campaign along old line political approaches. Still a long shot, but why throw away your vote. Other than Bailey, he is the only Republican candidate trending strongly up.


  21. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:35 pm:

    -Sometimes hard work pays off.-

    “If you ain’t first, you’re last.” — Another Will Ferrell character


  22. - The Abyss - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:37 pm:

    Bailey tops-out at 44 percent in the General, the Hard Right gets their moral victory (this is not about actually winning), the IL House and Senate numbers stay the same, and the GOP remains without a leader that can win statewide for another 10 years.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:38 pm:

    ===Republican Primary on Bailey or Irvin===

    How can one be a Harold Washington Democrat and support someone like Sullivan?

    That makes no sense in any political geometry.

    ===Other than Bailey, he is the only Republican candidate trending strongly up.===

    Sullivan is a phony that Pritzker would bury on abortion, “religion”, “California”, and one who steals valor.

    There’s very little that’s honest about Sullivan, including his dark money crew.


  24. - 47th Ward - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:42 pm:

    ===but he has built a campaign along old line political approaches===

    Duty, God, country?

    One out of three ain’t bad I suppose. Especially in the White Sox lineup these days.


  25. - Back to the Future - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:43 pm:

    “The trend is your friend”.
    Agree with Pritzker that Bailey can not win. Agree with the polls that Irvin can not beat Bailey.
    Also think plenty of time fir Republican voters to sort things out.


  26. - MisterJayEm - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:44 pm:

    “why throw away your vote in the Republican Primary on Bailey or Irvin?”

    Because you believe Bailey is the best Republican candidate, or you believe Irvin is the best Republican candidate.

    – MrJM


  27. - Back to the Future - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 8:49 pm:

    Maybe this is a big “tell”, but still hoping for the White Sox to come back.
    Respectfully, the choice between someone making money off an insider gambling boat deal and someone going off to Haiti to work with people suffering with poverty may be actually a very easy choice voters the fall.


  28. - Real - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:05 pm:

    Thankful to Proft for being one of the only republicans standing up against the Rauner and Griffin agenda. Most other establishment republicans have sold out.


  29. - Lynn S. - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:15 pm:

    “Thankful for Proft”

    Lol’d. Not a statement you see very often around here…


  30. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:24 pm:

    ===“Thankful for Proft”===

    I am thankful for Proft and Ives taking it to Rauner…


  31. - Ice Scream - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:32 pm:

    It will be a legendary fail for Z & Friends if they tank this one.

    Ogden & Fry isn’t the same shop it was since it was sold a couple years ago. The new owner/principal is running for office themselves, so how do they even have the time?


  32. - Back to the Future - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:35 pm:

    Really have absolutely no respect for Proft, but gotta give a Hat Tip to OW on Proft comment.


  33. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:55 pm:

    == Sometimes hard work pays off.==

    Bailey’s the only one actually working hard. If you go by actual personal effort put into the race, you kinda gotta wonder if anyone besides Bailey and Pritzker even want it.


  34. - Real - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:04 pm:

    When you really want something you fight as hard as Pritzker has been fighting. Which might be as hard as Griffin was fighting against that millionaire tax. Seeing as Pritzker is a billionaire he did not fight as hard for that tax as he is fighting for this race maybe because he did not understand how bad those of us that are not billionaires wanted it.


  35. - ArchPundit - Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:14 pm:

    Bailey and Devore on the Republican ticket is a GOP disaster in a year they should be doing okay


  36. - Left of what - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 7:57 am:

    So what this says to me is that Bailey has a clear highest ceiling, and Sullivan and Rabine are actually cutting into Irvin’s potential rather than Bailey’s. Basically you have Bailey vs the not-Bailey vote.


  37. - Karen - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 8:15 am:

    Aren’t Republican Primary polls historically inaccurate? Is Irvin trying to get African-American Dems to switch over for the Primary? If so, it would be unlikely that that demographic would be included in the Republican polling data.


  38. - Left of what - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 8:19 am:

    It seems two things are looking clear from these polls. Bailey has the highest ceiling. Rabine and sullivan are cutting into Irvin’s vote share more than bailey’s. Basically there is the Bailey vote and the anti-bailey vote.


  39. - Pundent - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 8:29 am:

    =Is Irvin trying to get African-American Dems to switch over for the Primary?=

    What exactly about this message is geared towards getting African-American Dems to vote in the Republican primary? His campaign messages have generally conveyed hostility towards minority groups.


  40. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 8:41 am:

    ===Aren’t Republican Primary polls historically inaccurate? Is Irvin trying to get African-American Dems to switch over for the Primary?===

    Tell me you know nothing about Republican primaries…


  41. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 8:41 am:

    == Aren’t Republican Primary polls historically inaccurate? ==

    Cope.

    == Is Irvin trying to get African-American Dems to switch over for the Primary?==

    Not really. He’s made a reference to his skin color, but not in a way that would appeal to anyone who doesn’t already regularly pull Republican ballots.


  42. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 8:43 am:

    If anything?

    If anything, Irvin used his race as a mechanism for old, angry, white voters to “own the libs”

    The race of Irvin was anything but to attract more persons of color to vote in a GOP primary


  43. - Tony DeKalb - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 9:04 am:

    With the large amount of undecideds, especially in the gov race, does that mean “I don’t really care who’s running in the primary, I’m gonna vote for whoever will be running against Pritzker” or “I’m not excited about any of these guys so I probably won’t vote in the general”?


  44. - My 2 Cents - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 9:07 am:

    Ken Griffin is proof that all the money in the world cannot buy good political judgement.


  45. - Real - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 9:14 am:

    -If anything, Irvin used his race as a mechanism for old, angry, white voters to “own the libs”

    The race of Irvin was anything but to attract more persons of color to vote in a GOP primary-

    I’m African American and this is true. The only switching over Irvin has caused is for me to switch over and vote against him.


  46. - Huh? - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 9:36 am:

    Here they come down the home stretch, at the 1/4 pole, with 2 weeks to go, beetle leads undecided by half a nose, irvin’s jockey lost a stirrip and is fading fast, sullivan is back 4 lengths and has never been in the race. The rest of the field had trouble getting out of the gate and were left behind at the start.

    So it is beetle nose to nose with undecided, racing hard to the finish.


  47. - SweetLou86 - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 9:44 am:

    == Proft is grifting and all of Proft’s talents won’t even fill ONE the *pinkies* of Z.==

    Republican politics is full of talentless grifters who know and feed the Republican base all the red meat it can tolerate. Z has the trust of Republican funders so he’ll land on his feet, but he doesn’t have his finger on the base-voter’s pulse, Proft does


  48. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 9:50 am:

    ===Aren’t Republican Primary polls historically inaccurate?===

    They can be, and it’s often because the polls often undercount people like those who support the former president. So, I suppose it’s possible that Bailey’s lead is larger.


  49. - walker - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 10:08 am:

    Battleship Ives would wipe the floor with these jamokes.

    Her off-the-cuff remarks could blast away any comms committee groupthink.


  50. - G'Kar - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 10:23 am:

    I’m asking so I can learn. What is the difference in the goal of the questions “Who do you support . . .” versus “Who do you choose. . .” I realize the second question does not include the undecided, but the totals in the two sets of questions don’t add up. Thanks.


  51. - The Dude Abides - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 10:32 am:

    The campaign commercials identifying Irvin as a candidate who has Democrat sympathies is having an effect. Bailey is unabashedly running as the very Conservative candidate he is. Right now it looks like he will be running against JBP in the Fall, which will be just what the Democrats want.


  52. - Thomas Paine - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 10:54 am:

    Some People: Irvin can’t lose, he has all the money.

    Same People: Bailey can’t win, JB has all of the money.

    Look, I am not gonna say JB is going to lose. I only point out that Bailey is not that much more conservative than Bill Brady, and Brady only lost to Quinn by 32K votes. And probably only because Brady sponsored legislation to put dogs in gas chambers.

    JB is going to need to campaign hard to beat Bailey, because if it is close at all in the fall, Griffin probably will spend $50-$100M independently to defeat him. He just dislikes him that much, and the funds were already budgeted anyway.


  53. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 11:09 am:

    =I only point out that Bailey is not that much more conservative than Bill Brady,=

    I am not sure about that, but I will give you this…both are equal when it comes to being a hypocrite.

    Bailey cannot even pronounce Illinois correctly, yet he wants to be governor. His negatives are far more than Brady and JB isn’t Pat Quinn. Much more popular and successful.

    A weee bit better funded too.


  54. - A-Man - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    =JB is going to need to campaign hard to beat Bailey, because if it is close at all in the fall=

    Laughable at best. If Bailey wins the nomination it’s an easy win for JB.


  55. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 11:41 am:

    =If Bailey wins the nomination it’s an easy win for JB.=

    JB and team need to campaign as if they are 20 points behind, regardless of their opponent. Relentless, give no quarter.


  56. - A-Man - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 12:26 pm:

    =JB and team need to campaign as if they are 20 points behind, regardless of their opponent. Relentless, give no quarter.=

    Oh absolutely, not saying he just shouldn’t campaign, just that he shouldn’t worry too much with a Bailey nom…if he campaigns as if they are 20 points behind it will be a blowout.


  57. - Jibba - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 12:45 pm:

    ===JB is going to need to campaign hard to beat Bailey===

    Too early to be drinking that much. And about campaigning hard, yes but the best campaign is to govern successfully. I’d be working on improving DCFS and other agencies as rapidly as possible.


  58. - Pundent - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:22 pm:

    =JB is going to need to campaign hard to beat Bailey=

    The best proxy that we have for a Trump style contest is the big man himself. And Trump has not fared well at all in the two times he’s run in this state. And Darren Bailey has nowhere near the built in advantages the former President has.

    I expect Pritzker to campaign hard regardless of his opposition. But Bailey isn’t much opposition. The larger concern with Bailey at the top of the ticket is how well any and all other GOP candidates will fare.


  59. - anon2 - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 3:02 pm:

    The bigger JB’s victory over Bailey, the more plausible the governor may look if and when Biden gets the memo about retiring.


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