* Sen. Darren Bailey is campaigning with Steve Cortes today. Cortes is a former Trump campaign advisor, who, according to Dan McLaughlin at National Review Online, is still “plugged into Trump’s inner circle.” I have no idea about that or whether Cortes is telling the truth, but here’s what he told the Bailey faithful out on the stump today…
So I speak to President Trump very often. I’m speaking to him about this race. And he asked the smart question, he said, ‘Well, is it winnable in the fall? Is it winnable, can we beat, in a state like Illinois, right, that leans blue, is it possible to win?’
I told him, I said, Mr. President, let me tell you about polling and what has happened in the state of Illinois. According to Civiqs Polling, Joe Biden began his term with a positive 23% approval rating in Illinois. 57% approval, 34% disapprove when he took office. Right now, according to Civiqs Polling, updated as of yesterday, he’s at underwater 8. He’s at 41% approve 49% disapprove. In Illinois, a 31-point net implosion in polling for Joe Biden. Now, JB Pritzker’s policies are as bad or even worse than Joe Biden’s.
So that tells me, and this what I told President Trump, that tells me that, yes, Illinois, absolutely is in play. This is a wave election year, and we are going to send Mary Miller back to Washington DC and we’re going to put Darren Bailey in the governor’s office in Springfield.
And while Dick Uihlein has put $17 million behind Bailey’s primary so far, I seriously doubt he’d put nearly as much into the general as Ken Griffin likely will if Richard Irvin does win on June 28th. Also, will the cash-rich Republican Governors Association jump in? Likely only if the national playing field is as great for Republicans as Cortes’ fondest dreams. I also don’t see too many members of the GOP’s downtown donor class eagerly coalescing behind a guy who has heaped so much scorn on Chicago, tried to kick it out of Illinois and saying at one point that his running mate would oversee the city for him.
It’s been seven days since gubernatorial candidate Richard Irvin abandoned downstate voters in the final stretch leading up to the primary. One week ago, Irvin stopped running ads outside of the Chicago media market after reportedly admitting he can’t be himself downstate. With just two weeks left until the primary, Irvin’s pulling a hail mary — but voters aren’t buying it.
Not one but two new polls show Irvin down to uber-conservative extremist Darren Bailey by nearly a 2:1 ratio — and with early voting already underway, that’s the nail in the coffin for Richard Irvin’s failed run for governor.
Looks like ducking, dodging, and deflecting on the issues most important to voters doesn’t win them over. Even $50 million from billionaire megadonor Ken Griffin and months of campaigning couldn’t keep Irvin’s sinking campaign afloat.
“With far-right extremist Darren Bailey surging in the polls, the Irvin campaign is grasping at straws to reinvent itself and is ditching downstate voters in the process,” said DGA Illinois Press Secretary Yael Sheinfeld. “We already knew Irvin wasn’t interested in being a governor for all of Illinois. Now, voters know it, too — and they won’t forget at the ballot box.”
The first real questions are if Bailey can keep voter turnout low in Cook (and Chicago) and the collars, while also hitting that 20% Bailey will need in votes.
Now include abortion, gun control…
It’s not too many a policy that Bailey aligns himself with majority voters.
If Gov Pritzker is now focused on his Presidential run, he may take his eye off the ball in Illinois. Although he has the resources to both but issues in a Democrat Primary for President may complicate an Illinois race, especially if Trump gets involved. A Bailey win is unlikely, but more probable with JB focused on Presidential bid.
Maybe it’s just me, but if you are running against Pritzker perhaps you should use his favorables/unfavorables as the measuring stick instead of Joe Biden’s? “Biden’s are bad, so JB’s must be as bad or worse” seems lazy.
Bailey isn’t getting the endorsement, he hasn’t spent nearly enough time trying to overturn the last election. Being only halfway down the rabbit hole doesn’t cut it.
The tell is that this guy changes the denominator half way through. For Biden, he’s talking about approvals, but for Pritzker he’s talking about “policies”. All of a sudden he’s silent on Pritzker’s numbers.
I do think anything is possible in a bad midterm. I also think Bailey wouldn’t really perform that differently from Irvin. But that’s bc they both start off as notable underdogs.
That being said, Bailey basically has to make an argument that he can win.
I also wonder if we have to figure Trump’s colossal ego into the equation. I mean, if he couldn’t win Illinois (twice), what makes this Bailey guy think he can?
- Alice Childress - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:25 pm:
If Mary Miller wins, I mean, I’m still shaking my head at the poll you posted about GOP voters and their preferences. Anyway. If she wins, then I just don’t get peoples’ sensibilities anymore.
- Bruce( no not him) - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:28 pm:
People seem to forget that Illinois would be a red state without Chicago.
Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning if the turnout is low north of I80.
This fall JB will win Sangamon, McLean, Champaign, Peoria, St. Clair and Madison counties…that’s just adding to his blowout wins in Cook and the collars. Sprinkle in some other “downstate” counties as well. This race will be called once the polls close on election night.
===Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning===
Meh. Over half of Illinoisans live in the 5 county metro area. 45 counties in Illinois have fewer than 20K people each. Bailey’s people may be large in area but are small in number. I don’t even think a poor turnout can doom JB.
Crazy things can happen in wave elections, particularly if the favorite’s voters think he has it in the bag. If the Governor can convince his people to show up, he will win, but I’d feel better if people weren’t already viewing it as a slam dunk.
- The Dude Abides - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 2:25 pm:
Biden isn’t running for Governor, Pritzker is and he’s actually been a decent Governor, something we haven’t had in a while. The majority of Illinois voter are pro choice on abortion too. Pritzker will beat Bailey fairly comfortably.
===Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning===
65% of Illinois lives in Cook and the Collars. JB won all of that except McHenry in 2018. JB will most likely win those and Champaign, Rock Island, Peoria, & St. Clair at the very least. Then with Bailey’s ultra-conservative positions and rural background, I would be very surprised by a Baily win.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 4:05 pm:
I’m an old retired guy and I’ve been listening for years to this junk about how great things would be for the downstate people if they separated from the Chicago area. Pretty tiresome.
The truth is it would be great for the Chicago area to get rid of the sparsely-populated “red” areas of the state, which would basically be another West Virginia.
Depending on how the primary ends up, I can’t say I will miss how so many of you have become Aurora experts (tax rates, crime, communication towers, etc.) over the last few months.
===isn’t the flex that I think he imagines it to be===
Yeah. Eliminationist rhetoric is not a good thing.
- Bruce( no not him) - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:00 pm:
I absolutely don’t think it is a good thing.
It is just the unfortunate reality of living downstate. ===which would basically be another West Virginia.===
Alot of folks down here think that would be OK.
Y’all are haters rich you’re a Bailey hater from day one and it is sad but y’all predict did he lose and he’s gonna route Irvin, so why would we expect you to predict anything but a massive landslide for Pritzker despite the red tsunami?
I can tell you one that matters more than anything he supports Lauren taxes and he’s anti-JB Pritzker and Joe Biden and that sells damn well in a red year trust me people have had enough I don’t care who is he’ll get 45% of the vote just on that platform right there
“No he didn’t. There’s only one Trump litmus test, and it ain’t electability.”
This is absurdly false. At least as far as the primary goes, “who is going to win?” seems to be the only litmus test for Trump. This is pretty clearly demonstrated by his 100-7 endorsement record as of this morning.
=Y’all are haters rich you’re a Bailey hater from day one and it is sad but y’all predict did he lose and he’s gonna route Irvin=
He doesn’t appeal to college educated voters. And that’s a pretty big audience in our metro areas.
And all “routes” lead through those areas. Ironic, isn’t it?
===Y’all are haters rich you’re a Bailey hater from day one===
Learn to use periods when you’re speaking into your phone. Also, I don’t hate anyone.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 6:21 pm:
I don’t normally offer up advice to Republicans for free, but Richard Irvin reminds me too much of Rod Blagojevich, so I hope that Darren Bailey will take this advice for what it’s worth.
1. Don’t get into an argument with Irvin about who is electable. That is the debate your opponent wants to have. That voice in your head repeating Irvin’s talking points? Do not answer back. Stay on your talking point.
2. I am a numbers guy, some folks would say a numbers freak. All of those folks talking you that you are going to win in November because of Joe Biden? They are wrong. There is no evidence of a mid-term effect on Governor races. None. Republicans running for Congress in swing districts will likely see a two-point bump, but Joe Biden is not helping you at all.
3. Don’t take advice from the folks who are convinced Trump won.
===I don’t care who is he’ll get 45% of the vote just on that platform ===
You might be right there…the challenger often gets at least that much just being in opposition. Sadly, that leaves 55% for the other guy. And that is basically a landslide.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 12:49 pm:
The first real questions are if Bailey can keep voter turnout low in Cook (and Chicago) and the collars, while also hitting that 20% Bailey will need in votes.
Now include abortion, gun control…
It’s not too many a policy that Bailey aligns himself with majority voters.
Tough road “on a good day”
- Jen - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 12:55 pm:
If Gov Pritzker is now focused on his Presidential run, he may take his eye off the ball in Illinois. Although he has the resources to both but issues in a Democrat Primary for President may complicate an Illinois race, especially if Trump gets involved. A Bailey win is unlikely, but more probable with JB focused on Presidential bid.
- Manchester - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 12:55 pm:
That must be quite a fever dream Bailey is having.
- Ice Scream - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 12:55 pm:
If Bailey can invigorate downstate turnout, he could pull it off. There’s still some residual non-Trump happiness in the suburbs which may counter.
Unbelievable that the people pulling the strings in this race are now living outside of Illinois. Proft is in Florida and Z is in Tennessee.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:01 pm:
Maybe it’s just me, but if you are running against Pritzker perhaps you should use his favorables/unfavorables as the measuring stick instead of Joe Biden’s? “Biden’s are bad, so JB’s must be as bad or worse” seems lazy.
- One hand //ing - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:03 pm:
===he said, ‘Well, is it winnable in the fall?===
No he didn’t. There’s only one Trump litmus test, and it ain’t electability.
- AlfondoGonz - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:03 pm:
“So I speak to President Trump very often”
Is DM’ing the former guy “truths” very often the same as speaking to him?
- TheInvisibleMan - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:14 pm:
Unless Illinois suddenly changes to an electoral-college type process, Bailey will not win an Illinois election for governor.
Years of minority-rule has permanently confused the republican party into thinking they are actually popular on the larger stage.
But to be fair, it’s not like he’s going to come out and say “I don’t have a chance of winning”. So there’s that.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:15 pm:
Bailey isn’t getting the endorsement, he hasn’t spent nearly enough time trying to overturn the last election. Being only halfway down the rabbit hole doesn’t cut it.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:16 pm:
The tell is that this guy changes the denominator half way through. For Biden, he’s talking about approvals, but for Pritzker he’s talking about “policies”. All of a sudden he’s silent on Pritzker’s numbers.
I do think anything is possible in a bad midterm. I also think Bailey wouldn’t really perform that differently from Irvin. But that’s bc they both start off as notable underdogs.
That being said, Bailey basically has to make an argument that he can win.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:20 pm:
I also wonder if we have to figure Trump’s colossal ego into the equation. I mean, if he couldn’t win Illinois (twice), what makes this Bailey guy think he can?
- Alice Childress - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:25 pm:
If Mary Miller wins, I mean, I’m still shaking my head at the poll you posted about GOP voters and their preferences. Anyway. If she wins, then I just don’t get peoples’ sensibilities anymore.
- Bruce( no not him) - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:28 pm:
People seem to forget that Illinois would be a red state without Chicago.
Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning if the turnout is low north of I80.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:31 pm:
===Illinois would be a red state without Chicago===
There’s many jokes to that, but this is a family blog.
Unless Chicago, Cook, and DuPage are leaving Illinois, your point is pointless.
- B Team - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:31 pm:
This fall JB will win Sangamon, McLean, Champaign, Peoria, St. Clair and Madison counties…that’s just adding to his blowout wins in Cook and the collars. Sprinkle in some other “downstate” counties as well. This race will be called once the polls close on election night.
- Annonin' - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:31 pm:
Let’s ask Rudy
- Bruce( no not him) - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:33 pm:
== your point is pointless.==
Most of mine are.
- Jibba - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:37 pm:
===Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning===
Meh. Over half of Illinoisans live in the 5 county metro area. 45 counties in Illinois have fewer than 20K people each. Bailey’s people may be large in area but are small in number. I don’t even think a poor turnout can doom JB.
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:41 pm:
=People seem to forget that Illinois would be a red state without Chicago.=
Yep, if almost 70% of the state did not exist, it MIGHT be a red state. Lol.
- Jibba - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:43 pm:
Those 45 counties have a combined population of about 500K, compared to about 8 mil in the 6 county area. Just putting some numbers on it.
- fs - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:47 pm:
==People seem to forget that Illinois would be a red state without Chicago.==
“People seem to forget that the performance of Our American Cousin that night was really quite good, without the whole Lincoln assassination part.”
- OneMan - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 1:48 pm:
==People seem to forget that Illinois would be a red state without Chicago. ==
Guessing you are including the collars as ‘Chicago’?
I would weigh a lot less if was able to remove the section of my body from just below my shoulders to my waist.
==Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning if the turnout is low north of I80. ==
Don’t worry JB is going to ensure turnout among college-educated suburban women is going to be off the chart.
- Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 2:06 pm:
Can’t wait to see Bailey standing on Michigan Avenue pressing the flesh and explaining how he plans to kick Chicago out of Illinois.
- Ken Griffin’s Bro - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 2:14 pm:
Aurora, Illinois has the highest taxes in the nation.
LOL. The End.
- natty lite - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 2:15 pm:
Crazy things can happen in wave elections, particularly if the favorite’s voters think he has it in the bag. If the Governor can convince his people to show up, he will win, but I’d feel better if people weren’t already viewing it as a slam dunk.
- The Dude Abides - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 2:25 pm:
Biden isn’t running for Governor, Pritzker is and he’s actually been a decent Governor, something we haven’t had in a while. The majority of Illinois voter are pro choice on abortion too. Pritzker will beat Bailey fairly comfortably.
- low level - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 2:49 pm:
I’m glad Cortes is now of the belief that Blue states conduct elections fairly. Maybe he ought to tell Donnie that.
- Love Illinois - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 3:06 pm:
Let’s please not forget Gary Rabine for Governor.
- ste_with_a_v_en - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 3:40 pm:
Who could forget this all-time Steve Cortes classic https://twitter.com/cortessteve/status/1324158218839445504
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 3:48 pm:
-Let’s please not forget Gary Rabine for Governor.-
Unfortunately for him, that’s pretty much been his campaign message.
- Incandenza - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 3:54 pm:
===Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning===
65% of Illinois lives in Cook and the Collars. JB won all of that except McHenry in 2018. JB will most likely win those and Champaign, Rock Island, Peoria, & St. Clair at the very least. Then with Bailey’s ultra-conservative positions and rural background, I would be very surprised by a Baily win.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 4:05 pm:
I’m an old retired guy and I’ve been listening for years to this junk about how great things would be for the downstate people if they separated from the Chicago area. Pretty tiresome.
The truth is it would be great for the Chicago area to get rid of the sparsely-populated “red” areas of the state, which would basically be another West Virginia.
- TJ - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 4:26 pm:
Saying that Illinois would be a red state if you didn’t count millions of blue voters isn’t the flex that I think he imagines it to be.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 4:37 pm:
Depending on how the primary ends up, I can’t say I will miss how so many of you have become Aurora experts (tax rates, crime, communication towers, etc.) over the last few months.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 4:52 pm:
===isn’t the flex that I think he imagines it to be===
Yeah. Eliminationist rhetoric is not a good thing.
- Bruce( no not him) - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:00 pm:
I absolutely don’t think it is a good thing.
It is just the unfortunate reality of living downstate. ===which would basically be another West Virginia.===
Alot of folks down here think that would be OK.
- Joseph - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:04 pm:
Y’all are haters rich you’re a Bailey hater from day one and it is sad but y’all predict did he lose and he’s gonna route Irvin, so why would we expect you to predict anything but a massive landslide for Pritzker despite the red tsunami?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:14 pm:
===and it is sad but y’all predict did he lose and he’s gonna route Irvin===
It wasn’t known if Bailey would get Uihlein help. If you don’t think that mattered or the Dems helping mattered…
===would we expect you to predict anything but a massive landslide for Pritzker despite the red tsunami?===
I can’t think of 3 policy things that Bailey aligns himself with that a majority of voters agree.
Oh… and the DGA will continue running ads for Bailey, probably not as helpful going forward.
- Joseph - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:19 pm:
I can tell you one that matters more than anything he supports Lauren taxes and he’s anti-JB Pritzker and Joe Biden and that sells damn well in a red year trust me people have had enough I don’t care who is he’ll get 45% of the vote just on that platform right there
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:19 pm:
Lower taxes*
- Joseph - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:20 pm:
Lower taxes*
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:23 pm:
===trust me people have had enough I don’t care===
The in-law uncle assesses…
- Ainsley Hayes - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:51 pm:
“No he didn’t. There’s only one Trump litmus test, and it ain’t electability.”
This is absurdly false. At least as far as the primary goes, “who is going to win?” seems to be the only litmus test for Trump. This is pretty clearly demonstrated by his 100-7 endorsement record as of this morning.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:52 pm:
=Y’all are haters rich you’re a Bailey hater from day one and it is sad but y’all predict did he lose and he’s gonna route Irvin=
He doesn’t appeal to college educated voters. And that’s a pretty big audience in our metro areas.
And all “routes” lead through those areas. Ironic, isn’t it?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:56 pm:
===Y’all are haters rich you’re a Bailey hater from day one===
Learn to use periods when you’re speaking into your phone. Also, I don’t hate anyone.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 6:21 pm:
I don’t normally offer up advice to Republicans for free, but Richard Irvin reminds me too much of Rod Blagojevich, so I hope that Darren Bailey will take this advice for what it’s worth.
1. Don’t get into an argument with Irvin about who is electable. That is the debate your opponent wants to have. That voice in your head repeating Irvin’s talking points? Do not answer back. Stay on your talking point.
2. I am a numbers guy, some folks would say a numbers freak. All of those folks talking you that you are going to win in November because of Joe Biden? They are wrong. There is no evidence of a mid-term effect on Governor races. None. Republicans running for Congress in swing districts will likely see a two-point bump, but Joe Biden is not helping you at all.
3. Don’t take advice from the folks who are convinced Trump won.
- Commentor - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 6:59 pm:
Isn’t this the guy that got canned from Newsmax?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 7:46 pm:
Candidates matter.
- Jibba - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 8:18 pm:
===I don’t care who is he’ll get 45% of the vote just on that platform ===
You might be right there…the challenger often gets at least that much just being in opposition. Sadly, that leaves 55% for the other guy. And that is basically a landslide.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 6:26 am:
== y’all predict did he lose==
I said pretty consistently that he could win if he got $10M or so.