* Sen. Darren Bailey is campaigning with Steve Cortes today. Cortes is a former Trump campaign advisor, who, according to Dan McLaughlin at National Review Online, is still “plugged into Trump’s inner circle.” I have no idea about that or whether Cortes is telling the truth, but here’s what he told the Bailey faithful out on the stump today…
So I speak to President Trump very often. I’m speaking to him about this race. And he asked the smart question, he said, ‘Well, is it winnable in the fall? Is it winnable, can we beat, in a state like Illinois, right, that leans blue, is it possible to win?’
I told him, I said, Mr. President, let me tell you about polling and what has happened in the state of Illinois. According to Civiqs Polling, Joe Biden began his term with a positive 23% approval rating in Illinois. 57% approval, 34% disapprove when he took office. Right now, according to Civiqs Polling, updated as of yesterday, he’s at underwater 8. He’s at 41% approve 49% disapprove. In Illinois, a 31-point net implosion in polling for Joe Biden. Now, JB Pritzker’s policies are as bad or even worse than Joe Biden’s.
So that tells me, and this what I told President Trump, that tells me that, yes, Illinois, absolutely is in play. This is a wave election year, and we are going to send Mary Miller back to Washington DC and we’re going to put Darren Bailey in the governor’s office in Springfield.
And while Dick Uihlein has put $17 million behind Bailey’s primary so far, I seriously doubt he’d put nearly as much into the general as Ken Griffin likely will if Richard Irvin does win on June 28th. Also, will the cash-rich Republican Governors Association jump in? Likely only if the national playing field is as great for Republicans as Cortes’ fondest dreams. I also don’t see too many members of the GOP’s downtown donor class eagerly coalescing behind a guy who has heaped so much scorn on Chicago, tried to kick it out of Illinois and saying at one point that his running mate would oversee the city for him.
It’s been seven days since gubernatorial candidate Richard Irvin abandoned downstate voters in the final stretch leading up to the primary. One week ago, Irvin stopped running ads outside of the Chicago media market after reportedly admitting he can’t be himself downstate. With just two weeks left until the primary, Irvin’s pulling a hail mary — but voters aren’t buying it.
Not one but two new polls show Irvin down to uber-conservative extremist Darren Bailey by nearly a 2:1 ratio — and with early voting already underway, that’s the nail in the coffin for Richard Irvin’s failed run for governor.
Looks like ducking, dodging, and deflecting on the issues most important to voters doesn’t win them over. Even $50 million from billionaire megadonor Ken Griffin and months of campaigning couldn’t keep Irvin’s sinking campaign afloat.
“With far-right extremist Darren Bailey surging in the polls, the Irvin campaign is grasping at straws to reinvent itself and is ditching downstate voters in the process,” said DGA Illinois Press Secretary Yael Sheinfeld. “We already knew Irvin wasn’t interested in being a governor for all of Illinois. Now, voters know it, too — and they won’t forget at the ballot box.”
If Gov Pritzker is now focused on his Presidential run, he may take his eye off the ball in Illinois. Although he has the resources to both but issues in a Democrat Primary for President may complicate an Illinois race, especially if Trump gets involved. A Bailey win is unlikely, but more probable with JB focused on Presidential bid.
Maybe it’s just me, but if you are running against Pritzker perhaps you should use his favorables/unfavorables as the measuring stick instead of Joe Biden’s? “Biden’s are bad, so JB’s must be as bad or worse” seems lazy.
The tell is that this guy changes the denominator half way through. For Biden, he’s talking about approvals, but for Pritzker he’s talking about “policies”. All of a sudden he’s silent on Pritzker’s numbers.
I do think anything is possible in a bad midterm. I also think Bailey wouldn’t really perform that differently from Irvin. But that’s bc they both start off as notable underdogs.
That being said, Bailey basically has to make an argument that he can win.
This fall JB will win Sangamon, McLean, Champaign, Peoria, St. Clair and Madison counties…that’s just adding to his blowout wins in Cook and the collars. Sprinkle in some other “downstate” counties as well. This race will be called once the polls close on election night.
===Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning===
Meh. Over half of Illinoisans live in the 5 county metro area. 45 counties in Illinois have fewer than 20K people each. Bailey’s people may be large in area but are small in number. I don’t even think a poor turnout can doom JB.
Crazy things can happen in wave elections, particularly if the favorite’s voters think he has it in the bag. If the Governor can convince his people to show up, he will win, but I’d feel better if people weren’t already viewing it as a slam dunk.
- The Dude Abides - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 2:25 pm:
Biden isn’t running for Governor, Pritzker is and he’s actually been a decent Governor, something we haven’t had in a while. The majority of Illinois voter are pro choice on abortion too. Pritzker will beat Bailey fairly comfortably.
===Nothing would surprise me about Bailey winning===
65% of Illinois lives in Cook and the Collars. JB won all of that except McHenry in 2018. JB will most likely win those and Champaign, Rock Island, Peoria, & St. Clair at the very least. Then with Bailey’s ultra-conservative positions and rural background, I would be very surprised by a Baily win.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 4:05 pm:
I’m an old retired guy and I’ve been listening for years to this junk about how great things would be for the downstate people if they separated from the Chicago area. Pretty tiresome.
The truth is it would be great for the Chicago area to get rid of the sparsely-populated “red” areas of the state, which would basically be another West Virginia.
===isn’t the flex that I think he imagines it to be===
Yeah. Eliminationist rhetoric is not a good thing.
- Bruce( no not him) - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 5:00 pm:
I absolutely don’t think it is a good thing.
It is just the unfortunate reality of living downstate. ===which would basically be another West Virginia.===
Alot of folks down here think that would be OK.
Y’all are haters rich you’re a Bailey hater from day one and it is sad but y’all predict did he lose and he’s gonna route Irvin, so why would we expect you to predict anything but a massive landslide for Pritzker despite the red tsunami?
I can tell you one that matters more than anything he supports Lauren taxes and he’s anti-JB Pritzker and Joe Biden and that sells damn well in a red year trust me people have had enough I don’t care who is he’ll get 45% of the vote just on that platform right there
“No he didn’t. There’s only one Trump litmus test, and it ain’t electability.”
This is absurdly false. At least as far as the primary goes, “who is going to win?” seems to be the only litmus test for Trump. This is pretty clearly demonstrated by his 100-7 endorsement record as of this morning.
===Y’all are haters rich you’re a Bailey hater from day one===
Learn to use periods when you’re speaking into your phone. Also, I don’t hate anyone.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jun 14, 22 @ 6:21 pm:
I don’t normally offer up advice to Republicans for free, but Richard Irvin reminds me too much of Rod Blagojevich, so I hope that Darren Bailey will take this advice for what it’s worth.
1. Don’t get into an argument with Irvin about who is electable. That is the debate your opponent wants to have. That voice in your head repeating Irvin’s talking points? Do not answer back. Stay on your talking point.
2. I am a numbers guy, some folks would say a numbers freak. All of those folks talking you that you are going to win in November because of Joe Biden? They are wrong. There is no evidence of a mid-term effect on Governor races. None. Republicans running for Congress in swing districts will likely see a two-point bump, but Joe Biden is not helping you at all.
3. Don’t take advice from the folks who are convinced Trump won.